Zig While Others Zag

[mild]

Didn't see the game but it seems he was heavily involved from all the reports. I'm ready to be gracious if Musgrave becomes the next hot thing, but I need more time for Kraft!

From:
https://www.pff.com/news/fantasy-footba ... games-2023

Luke Musgrave might be an every-down tight end: Musgrave took every snap with the starters.

- The Packers traditionally employ a rotation of tight ends by situation. They could still do this in the regular season, but it was noteworthy Musgrave was ahead of third-round rookie Tucker Kraft on all 11-personnel snaps.
- Robert Tonyan and Marcedes Lewis were leading that rotation last year, but both left for the rival Chicago Bears this offseason.
- It was also noteworthy that both Musgrave and Kraft were already playing ahead of Tyler Davis, who didn’t see a single snap with the starters. Davis played 175 offensive snaps last season and 121 the year before.
- Josiah Deguara is the only other player on the roster who could impact playing time for Musgrave and Kraft.
- Deguara missed a week of training camp with a calf injury and recently returned, but the Packers still kept him out of this game.
- If Musgrave plays anywhere close to 100% of offensive snaps, he should be considered among the league’s top sleeper tight ends.

It'll be interesting to see exactly when you wave the white flag if this (admittedly limited sample set) "every-down TE" usage holds steady.

Bonus round:

https://twitter.com/AndyHermanNFL/statu ... 2931056641

Love threw 10 passes, 9 if you take away the pop pass. 3 of those passes were for Musgrave. At family night last week, there was a 3 play period where they went to Musgrave on a screen, Musgrave on a crosser, Musgrave up the seam. He is going to be a massive part of this offense.

This is already abnormally high usage for a Rookie TE. The kind of usage/role we should be paying attention to as Fantasy players.

[tstafford]

Mark Andrews over Hurst was probably the one that stood out most to me. Hurst had more draft capital, but it was mostly due to his being a more complete TE. Andrews was the receiver and who I picked up everywhere.

TE is a position where I think a lot of fantasy footballers struggle to identify talent.

I think you're right about this. I also wonder how much of it has to do with "talent".

What we care about is fantasy points. The thing that Kelce and Andrews have in common more than anything else is that they are both the best receivers on their team. Don't get me wrong - I know Kelce is a god and all that, but he inarguably benefits from the fact that KCC seems to have zero interest in having a normal NFL WR1 (a la Adams, Kupp, JJ, etc.).

Seems to me that the TE position for FF comes down to volume. All FF is volume dependent but TE seems the most so. What you want is a TE on a team where he is the primary or secondary option in the passing game. I think that matters almost more than pure talent.

I guess the other way to get TE production is to just be lucky and get the right TD dependent guy like Robert Tonyan . . .

[Finfansteve]

@ Kurtrambis1

"You can lead a horse to water......."

The kid was cocked 20MPH at the Senior Bowl. The packers stole him. Why Pass; Draft Musgrave and pick up your blocking special team player on the waiver wire!

I'm holding strong till I die!

Didn't see the game but it seems he was heavily involved from all the reports. I'm ready to be gracious if Musgrave becomes the next hot thing, but I need more time for Kraft!

One thing I’ve learned over the course of 35 seasons of fantasy football and close to 1000 teams is that sometimes you have to be flexible in your opinions of a position or a player and if an nfl team is telling us something we need to acknowledge it and use that tell accordingly. Nfl teams adapt to new concepts and draft and use players to fit those new concepts. The old blocking TE that catches 30 passes a year that we may have used in 1995 is obsolete in 2023. Pass catching TE’s are the current trade so when a team drafts a strong blocking and also a pass catching TE most likely that’s how they plan to use them. Kraft will be on the field most plays because of his ability to block but that doesn’t mean he will be a fantasy asset for those of us who draft him. Camp buzz and game 1 of the preseason tells us who they are going to use as a weapon in their offense and we need to act on that accordingly

[Kurt G.O.A.T.]

musgrave has been picked much, much earlier than kraft in every rookie draft.

at his price i find myself taking someone like jayden reed in that area. mims sometimes, tillman, dell, etc.

whereas kraft is getting drafted with the dregs of wr/rbs.

i'd rather have reed and take a chance kraft turns into something. if he doesn't i'd still rather have reed.

[Bronco Billy]

@ Kurtrambis1

"You can lead a horse to water......."

The kid was cocked 20MPH at the Senior Bowl. The packers stole him. Why Pass; Draft Musgrave and pick up your blocking special team player on the waiver wire!

I'm holding strong till I die!

Didn't see the game but it seems he was heavily involved from all the reports. I'm ready to be gracious if Musgrave becomes the next hot thing, but I need more time for Kraft!

One thing I’ve learned over the course of 35 seasons of fantasy football and close to 1000 teams is that sometimes you have to be flexible in your opinions of a position or a player and if an nfl team is telling us something we need to acknowledge it and use that tell accordingly. Nfl teams adapt to new concepts and draft and use players to fit those new concepts. The old blocking TE that catches 30 passes a year that we may have used in 1995 is obsolete in 2023. Pass catching TE’s are the current trade so when a team drafts a strong blocking and also a pass catching TE most likely that’s how they plan to use them. Kraft will be on the field most plays because of his ability to block but that doesn’t mean he will be a fantasy asset for those of us who draft him. Camp buzz and game 1 of the preseason tells us who they are going to use as a weapon in their offense and we need to act on that accordingly

There’s the fallacy with a player like Kraft though. His game goes well beyond the “old blocking TE”. He has the required athleticism and he played like a man amongst boys at SDST last year as a receiver. He has all the qualities you look for in a productive in-line TE, so to simply pigeonhole him as a blocking TE is a mistake IMO. In-line TEs have a large learning curve in the NFL because they have to learn a duel role of handling NFL level Edge players in the run game while having to get off the line and into patterns against NFL level coverage as a receiver.

It’s a sophisticated position that requires a certain kind of player if they are going to be FF assets, and Kraft has all those traits. He’s got the required measurables, he’s got the mean streak, technique footwork and strength, and desire for heavy contact as a blocker, and he’s got the quickness, awareness of finding seams, creating separation just before the ball arrives, receiving skills and “my ball” mentality as a receiver. It just takes a little more time to pull that all together at this level.

[Ice]

I'm holding strong till I die!

Didn't see the game but it seems he was heavily involved from all the reports. I'm ready to be gracious if Musgrave becomes the next hot thing, but I need more time for Kraft!

One thing I’ve learned over the course of 35 seasons of fantasy football and close to 1000 teams is that sometimes you have to be flexible in your opinions of a position or a player and if an nfl team is telling us something we need to acknowledge it and use that tell accordingly. Nfl teams adapt to new concepts and draft and use players to fit those new concepts. The old blocking TE that catches 30 passes a year that we may have used in 1995 is obsolete in 2023. Pass catching TE’s are the current trade so when a team drafts a strong blocking and also a pass catching TE most likely that’s how they plan to use them. Kraft will be on the field most plays because of his ability to block but that doesn’t mean he will be a fantasy asset for those of us who draft him. Camp buzz and game 1 of the preseason tells us who they are going to use as a weapon in their offense and we need to act on that accordingly

There’s the fallacy with a player like Kraft though. His game goes well beyond the “old blocking TE”. He has the required athleticism and he played like a man amongst boys at SDST last year as a receiver. He has all the qualities you look for in a productive in-line TE, so to simply pigeonhole him as a blocking TE is a mistake IMO. In-line TEs have a large learning curve in the NFL because they have to learn a duel role of handling NFL level Edge players in the run game while having to get off the line and into patterns against NFL level coverage as a receiver.

It’s a sophisticated position that requires a certain kind of player if they are going to be FF assets, and Kraft has all those traits. He’s got the required measurables, he’s got the mean streak, technique footwork and strength, and desire for heavy contact as a blocker, and he’s got the quickness, awareness of finding seams, creating separation just before the ball arrives, receiving skills and “my ball” mentality as a receiver. It just takes a little more time to pull that all together at this level.

He may possess all those traits but he looks behind at this point. The Packers obviously like him but it is also obvious they liked Musgrave better on draft day and he shined in preseason game one getting all the 1st team reps.

That said, Kraft could be very good as he develops. The difference, in my opinion, is Musgrave could be elite as he develops.

[Bronco Billy]

One thing I’ve learned over the course of 35 seasons of fantasy football and close to 1000 teams is that sometimes you have to be flexible in your opinions of a position or a player and if an nfl team is telling us something we need to acknowledge it and use that tell accordingly. Nfl teams adapt to new concepts and draft and use players to fit those new concepts. The old blocking TE that catches 30 passes a year that we may have used in 1995 is obsolete in 2023. Pass catching TE’s are the current trade so when a team drafts a strong blocking and also a pass catching TE most likely that’s how they plan to use them. Kraft will be on the field most plays because of his ability to block but that doesn’t mean he will be a fantasy asset for those of us who draft him. Camp buzz and game 1 of the preseason tells us who they are going to use as a weapon in their offense and we need to act on that accordingly

There’s the fallacy with a player like Kraft though. His game goes well beyond the “old blocking TE”. He has the required athleticism and he played like a man amongst boys at SDST last year as a receiver. He has all the qualities you look for in a productive in-line TE, so to simply pigeonhole him as a blocking TE is a mistake IMO. In-line TEs have a large learning curve in the NFL because they have to learn a duel role of handling NFL level Edge players in the run game while having to get off the line and into patterns against NFL level coverage as a receiver.

It’s a sophisticated position that requires a certain kind of player if they are going to be FF assets, and Kraft has all those traits. He’s got the required measurables, he’s got the mean streak, technique footwork and strength, and desire for heavy contact as a blocker, and he’s got the quickness, awareness of finding seams, creating separation just before the ball arrives, receiving skills and “my ball” mentality as a receiver. It just takes a little more time to pull that all together at this level.

He may possess all those traits but he looks behind at this point. The Packers obviously like him but it is also obvious they liked Musgrave better on draft day and he shined in preseason game one getting all the 1st team reps.

That said, Kraft could be very good as he develops. The difference, in my opinion, is Musgrave could be elite as he develops.

He could be. He has strong receiving chops when he’s right. I just prefer guys like Kraft over the Musgraves because they are so incomplete on one side of their game.

[81-]

@ Kurtrambis1

"You can lead a horse to water......."

The kid was cocked 20MPH at the Senior Bowl. The packers stole him. Why Pass; Draft Musgrave and pick up your blocking special team player on the waiver wire!

I'm holding strong till I die!

Didn't see the game but it seems he was heavily involved from all the reports. I'm ready to be gracious if Musgrave becomes the next hot thing, but I need more time for Kraft!

One thing I’ve learned over the course of 35 seasons of fantasy football and close to 1000 teams is that sometimes you have to be flexible in your opinions of a position or a player and if an nfl team is telling us something we need to acknowledge it and use that tell accordingly. Nfl teams adapt to new concepts and draft and use players to fit those new concepts. The old blocking TE that catches 30 passes a year that we may have used in 1995 is obsolete in 2023. Pass catching TE’s are the current trade so when a team drafts a strong blocking and also a pass catching TE most likely that’s how they plan to use them. Kraft will be on the field most plays because of his ability to block but that doesn’t mean he will be a fantasy asset for those of us who draft him. Camp buzz and game 1 of the preseason tells us who they are going to use as a weapon in their offense and we need to act on that accordingly

28 teams a year?

[Finfansteve]

I'm holding strong till I die!

Didn't see the game but it seems he was heavily involved from all the reports. I'm ready to be gracious if Musgrave becomes the next hot thing, but I need more time for Kraft!

One thing I’ve learned over the course of 35 seasons of fantasy football and close to 1000 teams is that sometimes you have to be flexible in your opinions of a position or a player and if an nfl team is telling us something we need to acknowledge it and use that tell accordingly. Nfl teams adapt to new concepts and draft and use players to fit those new concepts. The old blocking TE that catches 30 passes a year that we may have used in 1995 is obsolete in 2023. Pass catching TE’s are the current trade so when a team drafts a strong blocking and also a pass catching TE most likely that’s how they plan to use them. Kraft will be on the field most plays because of his ability to block but that doesn’t mean he will be a fantasy asset for those of us who draft him. Camp buzz and game 1 of the preseason tells us who they are going to use as a weapon in their offense and we need to act on that accordingly

28 teams a year?

Oops that was supposed to be “200” teams

[Bronco Billy]

One thing I’ve learned over the course of 35 seasons of fantasy football and close to 1000 teams is that sometimes you have to be flexible in your opinions of a position or a player and if an nfl team is telling us something we need to acknowledge it and use that tell accordingly. Nfl teams adapt to new concepts and draft and use players to fit those new concepts. The old blocking TE that catches 30 passes a year that we may have used in 1995 is obsolete in 2023. Pass catching TE’s are the current trade so when a team drafts a strong blocking and also a pass catching TE most likely that’s how they plan to use them. Kraft will be on the field most plays because of his ability to block but that doesn’t mean he will be a fantasy asset for those of us who draft him. Camp buzz and game 1 of the preseason tells us who they are going to use as a weapon in their offense and we need to act on that accordingly

28 teams a year?

Oops that was supposed to be “200” teams

A year?

Seek help, man!

[moishetreats]

To me, two things are clear.

1) Long-term, we don't know who is going to be better between Kraft and Musgrave. We're simply guessing based on limited but clear data and trying to project 10 years out. So the argument for Kraft is obvious.

2) The limited data is entirely, entirely, entirely pointing to Musgrave as the more likely of the two to hit. So the argument for Musgrave is obvious.

Bottom line: do you want the cheaper prospect among two unknowns with a wide range of outcomes, or do you want the player who at this point is the better of the two prospects?

I think you're right about this. I also wonder how much of it has to do with "talent".

What we care about is fantasy points. The thing that Kelce and Andrews have in common more than anything else is that they are both the best receivers on their team. Don't get me wrong - I know Kelce is a god and all that, but he inarguably benefits from the fact that KCC seems to have zero interest in having a normal NFL WR1 (a la Adams, Kupp, JJ, etc.).

Seems to me that the TE position for FF comes down to volume. All FF is volume dependent but TE seems the most so. What you want is a TE on a team where he is the primary or secondary option in the passing game. I think that matters almost more than pure talent.

I guess the other way to get TE production is to just be lucky and get the right TD dependent guy like Robert Tonyan . . .

I don't entirely disagree with your main points. But I don't understand the claim in bold -- and neither does Tyreek Hill. Kelce produced god-like stats with Hill on the roster also producing elite stats for a number of years.

[ericanadian]

To me, two things are clear.

1) Long-term, we don't know who is going to be better between Kraft and Musgrave. We're simply guessing based on limited but clear data and trying to project 10 years out. So the argument for Kraft is obvious.

2) The limited data is entirely, entirely, entirely pointing to Musgrave as the more likely of the two to hit. So the argument for Musgrave is obvious.

Bottom line: do you want the cheaper prospect among two unknowns with a wide range of outcomes, or do you want the player who at this point is the better of the two prospects?

I think you're right about this. I also wonder how much of it has to do with "talent".

What we care about is fantasy points. The thing that Kelce and Andrews have in common more than anything else is that they are both the best receivers on their team. Don't get me wrong - I know Kelce is a god and all that, but he inarguably benefits from the fact that KCC seems to have zero interest in having a normal NFL WR1 (a la Adams, Kupp, JJ, etc.).

Seems to me that the TE position for FF comes down to volume. All FF is volume dependent but TE seems the most so. What you want is a TE on a team where he is the primary or secondary option in the passing game. I think that matters almost more than pure talent.

I guess the other way to get TE production is to just be lucky and get the right TD dependent guy like Robert Tonyan . . .

I don't entirely disagree with your main points. But I don't understand the claim in bold -- and neither does Tyreek Hill. Kelce produced god-like stats with Hill on the roster also producing elite stats for a number of years.

Look at what Hill just did in Miami. Reid’s system is generally a detriment to receivers. Maclin is another guy who hit another level of production immediately after leaving. DeSean Jackson had his best season right after Reid was let go in Philly,

Reid’s system spreads the ball around and highlights the TE. Hill largely succeeded at the expense of the RBs.

In general, system is something a lot of FFers ignore when it comes to TEs to their own detriment. It impacts receivers, running backs, etc as well, but it can be the difference between elite and replacement value for TEs.

[moishetreats]

To me, two things are clear.

1) Long-term, we don't know who is going to be better between Kraft and Musgrave. We're simply guessing based on limited but clear data and trying to project 10 years out. So the argument for Kraft is obvious.

2) The limited data is entirely, entirely, entirely pointing to Musgrave as the more likely of the two to hit. So the argument for Musgrave is obvious.

Bottom line: do you want the cheaper prospect among two unknowns with a wide range of outcomes, or do you want the player who at this point is the better of the two prospects?

One more note after the pre-season game. Musgrave isn't known as a blocker, and early reports suggest he's unlikely to develop into an elite one any time soon. But game film and early practices also suggest a surprising okay-ness as a blocker. Perhaps just good enough that he won't have to be 100% a receiving TE.

Granted, it doesn't move the needle *that* much. I'm just collecting data points.

[mild]

Since this is the Musgrave thread now...

https://theathletic.com/4782145/2023/08 ... y-packers/

The Packers ran a jet sweep from the 7-yard line during Wednesday’s joint practice against the Patriots — not just any regular jet sweep, but a jet sweep to a tight end. And a rookie tight end, at that, who stands 6 feet 6 inches and 253 pounds. Luke Musgrave is special, and the Packers seem hell-bent on making the most out of him.

Can anyone else recall the last time there was a TE running Jet sweeps in earnest in the NFL? Just the fact that Lafleur even has this in the playbook for him is bonkers/notable

Tucker Kraft may end up being a really good TE. Unfortunately for him... it's really looking like he's landed on a team with an even better one.

[Jigga94]

Since this is the Musgrave thread now...

https://theathletic.com/4782145/2023/08 ... y-packers/

The Packers ran a jet sweep from the 7-yard line during Wednesday’s joint practice against the Patriots — not just any regular jet sweep, but a jet sweep to a tight end. And a rookie tight end, at that, who stands 6 feet 6 inches and 253 pounds. Luke Musgrave is special, and the Packers seem hell-bent on making the most out of him.

Can anyone else recall the last time there was a TE running Jet sweeps in earnest in the NFL? Just the fact that Lafleur even has this in the playbook for him is bonkers/notable

Tucker Kraft may end up being a really good TE. Unfortunately for him... it's really looking like he's landed on a team with an even better one.

I could've sworn Roman tried a Jet Sweep with Ricard at one point