Dynasty League Football Forum

Previous RB Reports
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016


Couple of hiccups with the way I obtain the rookie data this year, plus laziness on my part, so gonna be a short one this year. Haven't really watched any film like I have in previous years. Super short recap below and then tiers lists below that.


Bijan - Tier 1 - Seems super safe. My boy Allgeier

Gibbs - Tier 1 - Would have been in the old "Tier 2" before I combined the two tiers. Not really cause for concern, but maybe not the upside/longevity of Bijan. Haven't watched any film on him so hard to say if he looks more like Jamaal Charles or CJ Spiller.

Evan Hull - Tier 5 - Buy buy buy . Has the look of the next Aaron Jones. The JT news only makes Hulk that much more interesting. Haven't seen a new Tier 5 player in 5 years or so.


Honorable Mention - Devon Achane - Super duper close to Tier 1. Ultimately he didn't make it, but... close enough to make me want at least 1 share. Kendre Miller also looks interesting but no athletic testing so...

News and Notes - I wouldn't really be selling low on Walker or Etienne. And people are getting way too gaga over these late round rb's in general.

Let me know if I missed anything.

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Tier 1 – Speed [Power/Speed]

2023 - Bijan Robinson
2023 - Jahmyr Gibbs
2022 – Breece Hall
2022 – Kenneth Walker
2021 – Travis Etienne
2020 – Jonathan Taylor
2020 – Cam Akers
2020 – AJ Dillon
2018 - Saquon Barkley
2018 - Rashaad Penny
2018 – Nick Chubb
2018 - Derrius Guice
2017 - Leonard Fournette
2017 – Joe Mixon
2017 - D'Onta Foreman
2016 - Ezekiel Elliott
2016 - Derrick Henry
2015 - David Johnson
2011 - DeMarco Murray
2010 - Ryan Mathews
2008 - Darren McFadden
2008 – Jonathan Stewart
2008 - Chris Johnson
2008 - Matt Forte
2008 - Jamaal Charles
2007 - Adrian Peterson
2007 - Marshawn Lynch
2006 - Maurice Jones-Drew
2004 - Steven Jackson
2001 - LaDainian Tomlinson


Tier 1 – Agility

2017 – Christian McCaffrey
2013 – Le’Veon Bell
2009 – LeSean McCoy
2008 – Ray Rice


Tier 1 RB's are the RB's you want.



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Tier 3 – Flash In The Pan

2021 - Javonte Williams
2014 - Carlos Hyde
2013 - Eddie Lacy
2012 - Trent Richardson
2012 - Doug Martin
2006 - DeAngelo Williams

These are running backs that start off red hot but then cool quickly. Great potential for at least 1 1k yard season but maximum of 2. None added this year.


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Tier 4 – Replaceable Backs and UDFA Dart Throws

Year__Pick____Name
2022 – 5.08 - Tyler Allgeier
2022 – 6.04 - Kevin Harris
2019 – 3.09 – David Montgomery
2019 – 5.02 – Ryquell Armstead
2018 - 3.07 - Royce Freeman
2017 - 3.22 - Kareem Hunt
2016 - 5.34 - Alex Collins
2016 - 4.36 - Kenneth Dixon
2016 – 4.38 – Devontae Booker
2016 - 5.11 - Jordan Howard
2015 - 5.13 - Jay Ajayi
2014 – 4.38 – Lorenzo Taliaferro
2012 – 4.11 – Robert Turbin
2011 - 1.28 - Mark Ingram
2010 – 6.19 – Jonathan Dwyer
2010 – 2.19 – Toby Gerhart
2009 - 1.12 - Knowshon Moreno
2009 – 6.12 – Cedric Peerman
2008 - 6.10 - Jalen Parmele

____Undrafted
2020 – James Robinson
2019 – Alex Barnes
2015 - Thomas Rawls
2015 - Zach Zenner
2014 - Isaiah Crowell
2014 - Terrance Cobb
2008 - BenJarvis Green-Ellis


I separated the list into drafted and undrafted players because as you can see the drafted players have a much better hit rate and also a much higher ceiling overall.



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Tier 5 – Pass Catchers

Year__Pick____Name
2023 - 5.42 - Evan Hull
2018 – 4.34 – Chase Edmonds
2017 – 5.39 – Aaron Jones
2015 - 3.13 - Duke Johnson
2014 - 2.22 - Bishop Sankey
2014 – UDFA – Orleans Darkwa
2013 - 2.05 - Giovani Bernard
2012 – 2.29 – LaMichael James
2011 - 2.24 - Shane Vereen
2008 - UDFA - Danny Woodhead
2005 - 4.29 - Darren Sproles


This tier is composed of players that likely won’t be 3-down RB’s but may be valuable pass catchers (most have had multiple years of 40 or even 50+ receptions) and carry good value in PPR leagues. They have good longevity, as you can see the list is composed of players stretching from over a decade ago that are still active in the league.


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This is my favorite post every year! Thank you sir!

Can you tell us what hat kind of testing it would have taken for Miller to be tier 1? Ie, would it have had to be exceptional, ie, 4.4 and 90% vertical testing? Or would something just average worked? Say 4.54?

I’m not sure how you do everything and it might be impossible to say but figured I’d ask.

SteveMaddensShoes wrote: ↑Wed Aug 02, 2023 11:14 am Can you tell us what hat kind of testing it would have taken for Miller to be tier 1? Ie, would it have had to be exceptional, ie, 4.4 and 90% vertical testing? Or would something just average worked? Say 4.54?

I’m not sure how you do everything and it might be impossible to say but figured I’d ask.

Also curious on this bit.

Also glad to see some Evan Hull love. Thought I was on an island all offseason saying he was undervalued

SteveMaddensShoes wrote: ↑Wed Aug 02, 2023 11:14 am Can you tell us what hat kind of testing it would have taken for Miller to be tier 1? Ie, would it have had to be exceptional, ie, 4.4 and 90% vertical testing? Or would something just average worked? Say 4.54?

I’m not sure how you do everything and it might be impossible to say but figured I’d ask.

He’s same/similar height weight to bijan, so think bijan testing numbers I guess. I don’t put a ton of stock into the vert. 4.4x for sure, or, 4.54 + off the charts agility testing.

Dynasty DeLorean wrote: ↑Wed Aug 02, 2023 12:06 pm

SteveMaddensShoes wrote: ↑Wed Aug 02, 2023 11:14 am Can you tell us what hat kind of testing it would have taken for Miller to be tier 1? Ie, would it have had to be exceptional, ie, 4.4 and 90% vertical testing? Or would something just average worked? Say 4.54?

I’m not sure how you do everything and it might be impossible to say but figured I’d ask.

He’s same/similar height weight to bijan, so think bijan testing numbers I guess. I don’t put a ton of stock into the vert. 4.4x for sure, or, 4.54 + off the charts agility testing.

Ok cool, TY. Does anyone think Miller has similar 40 numbers and agility as Bijan?

Thank you again for doing this/posting it! Would love if you updated the hit rates as well (to include one more year) as I find that super interesting.

This confirms my thinking on the rbs in this class, that really you only want two (Bijan/Gibbs) and the rest are dart throws that have been pushed up the draft boards.

Following.

SteveMaddensShoes wrote: ↑Wed Aug 02, 2023 12:09 pm

Dynasty DeLorean wrote: ↑Wed Aug 02, 2023 12:06 pm

SteveMaddensShoes wrote: ↑Wed Aug 02, 2023 11:14 am Can you tell us what hat kind of testing it would have taken for Miller to be tier 1? Ie, would it have had to be exceptional, ie, 4.4 and 90% vertical testing? Or would something just average worked? Say 4.54?

I’m not sure how you do everything and it might be impossible to say but figured I’d ask.

He’s same/similar height weight to bijan, so think bijan testing numbers I guess. I don’t put a ton of stock into the vert. 4.4x for sure, or, 4.54 + off the charts agility testing.

Ok cool, TY. Does anyone think Miller has similar 40 numbers and agility as Bijan?

I would guess high 4.4x or low 4.5x. He has good breakaway speed, but not the quickest out of the gate. I would say less agility than Bijan though

grooner wrote: ↑Wed Aug 02, 2023 12:10 pm Thank you again for doing this/posting it! Would love if you updated the hit rates as well (to include one more year) as I find that super interesting.

Yeah probably will do that next year

Following. And I think I speak for everyone when I say we need more of this:

Comps
Slow Melvin Gordon

Lol !

Are you planning to include some blips on the "next tranche" of 2023 RBs? E.G. guys like Charbonnet, Spears, Bigsby, Roschon? Or is that not really what this thread is generally about? Or...are they all JAGS in your humble opinion?

I now regret passing on Hull in my rookie draft yesterday.

Any thoughts on Deuce Vaughn in Tier 5?? Multiple years of over 40 receptions. Does his size automatically disqualify him?

Kendre is answering a lot of questions. Health? Check? Agility? Check. Pass catching? Check.

Glad I got two shares of Hull.

Jigga94 wrote: ↑Wed Aug 02, 2023 12:34 pm
I would guess high 4.4x or low 4.5x. He has good breakaway speed, but not the quickest out of the gate. I would say less agility than Bijan though

Miller had one of the top explosive run rates in the class this year. The speed is definitely there and matches what you see in games. I'd guess 4.46-4.48.