2023 Running Back Report

[Dynasty DeLorean]

I guess since there's a lot of Achane talk here, I should mention I actually did watch quite a bit of film on him because he was so interesting. IMO he's not just a track guy, he's actually a skilled runner. I think the only issue I had was he was a bit hesitant at times at the LOS, and of course his size was not ideal.


Also;

Was going to post this in my rb report but figure I’ll share here since it seems relevant. Warrick Dunn (who was also a track guy) was in the 180’s when working out and drafted, so there is precedent for Achane. The main difference would be draft capital. Also found an old articl in which someone involved in drafted Tony Dorsett said he was in the 170’s when they drafted him. Also we’ve seen Phillip Lindsay have a lot of success given his draft capital who was also under 190lbs. There aren’t many examples but there certainly is precedent for Achane to be successful.

[Cameron Giles]

I guess since there's a lot of Achane talk here, I should mention I actually did watch quite a bit of film on him because he was so interesting. IMO he's not just a track guy, he's actually a skilled runner. I think the only issue I had was he was a bit hesitant at times at the LOS, and of course his size was not ideal.


Also;

Was going to post this in my rb report but figure I’ll share here since it seems relevant. Warrick Dunn (who was also a track guy) was in the 180’s when working out and drafted, so there is precedent for Achane. The main difference would be draft capital. Also found an old articl in which someone involved in drafted Tony Dorsett said he was in the 170’s when they drafted him. Also we’ve seen Phillip Lindsay have a lot of success given his draft capital who was also under 190lbs. There aren’t many examples but there certainly is precedent for Achane to be successful.

Just to piggyback, if Achane is indeed at least 5'9, 192 (as has been confirmed), that puts him at a 28.4 BMI. While, he's clearly never going to have elite size:

Warrick Dunn - 26.6
Chris Johnson - 26.6
C.J. Spiller - 27.3
Jamaal Charles - 27.8
Christian McCaffrey - 28.2
Reggie Bush - 28.3
Tony Pollard - 28.5

It's not like there aren't current and recent players who've done the same thing. Then when you consider

+ 4th fastest 40 time ever at the RB position
+ Day 2 Draft Pedigree
+ 93rd Percentile Target Share
+ Starter in the SEC
+ 35 rushes of 10+ yards or more
+ 705 yards after contact last season
+ Forced a missed tackle on 30% of his runs

On top of it, he landed in an ideal situation for his skillset. There's a very plausible path here to Achane being really good.

[Dynasty DeLorean]

Had a little free time so I updated the hit rates for my model vs other. I left off Gurley and Dobbins b/c they didn't do any athletic testing due to injury. I left off CMC b/c he switched from off the model to on the model during this time period. If you disagree with any of this methodology, feel free to make changes as you see fit. In any event, I don't think it significantly changes the hit rates.


Things we've learned...
1) Round 1 Rb's in general are pretty safe
2) Round 3 Rb's in general are not safe, at all... lol.
3) The players my model identifies are far better bets than the players it doesn't


____________________________________
Rookie RB Classes of 2015-2021
My Model = Players in Tier 1 of my model
Other = Players not in Tier 1 of my model
Random = If you were to select a player at random (so disregarding my model)
1K Yard Season = 1k rushing yards @ 62.5+ ypc
____________________________________


Round 1 RB's

At least 1+ 1K Rushing Season
My Model - 80% Hit Rate
Other - 60% Hit Rate
Random - 70% Hit Rate

At least 2+ 1K Rushing Season
My Model - 60% Hit Rate
Other - 20% Hit Rate
Random - 40% Hit Rate

At least 3+ 1K Rushing Season
My Model - 40% Hit Rate
Other - 20% Hit Rate
Random - 30% Hit Rate



Round 2 RB's

At least 1+ 1K Rushing Season
My Model - 57% Hit Rate
Other - 38% Hit Rate
Random - 46% Hit Rate

At least 2+ 1K Rushing Season
My Model - 57% Hit Rate
Other - 13% Hit Rate
Random - 33% Hit Rate

At least 3+ 1K Rushing Season
My Model - 43% Hit Rate
Other - 13% Hit Rate
Random - 27% Hit Rate


Round 3 RB's

At least 1+ 1K Rushing Season
My Model - 50% Hit Rate
Other - 21% Hit Rate
Random - 24% Hit Rate

At least 2+ 1K Rushing Season
My Model - 0% Hit Rate
Other - 5% Hit Rate
Random - 5% Hit Rate

At least 3+ 1K Rushing Season
My Model - 0% Hit Rate
Other - 0% Hit Rate
Random - 0% Hit Rate



_________________________________
Raw Data below - Not necessary to read
_________________________________


2015
Round 1
Todd Gurley – 3
Melvin Gordon – 1

Round 2
TJ Yeldon – 0
Ameer Abdullah – 0

Round 3
Tevin Coleman – 0
Duke Johnson – 0
David Johnson – 1
Matt Jones – 0



2016
Round 1
Ezekiel Elliott - 3

Round 2
Derrick Henry – 5

Round 3
Kenyan Drake – 0
CJ Prosise – 0



2017
Round 1
Leonard Fournette – 2
Christian McCaffrey – 4

Round 2
Dalvin Cook – 4
Joe Mixon – 3

Round 3
Alvin Kamara – 0
Kareem Hunt – 1
D’Onta Foreman – 0
James Conner – 1



2018
Round 1
Saquon Barkley – 3
Rashaad Penny – 0
Sony Michel – 0

Round 2
Nick Chubb – 4
Ronald Jones – 0
Kerryon Johnson – 0
Derrius Guice – 0

Round 3
Royce Freeman – 0



2019
Round 1
Josh Jacobs – 3

Round 2
Miles Sanders – 1

Round 3
Darrell Henderson – 0
David Montgomery – 2
Devin Singletary – 0
Damien Harris – 0
Alexander Mattison – 0



2020
Round 1
Clyde Edwards-Helaire – 0

Round 2
D’Andre Swift – 1
Jonathan Taylor – 2
Cam Akers – 0
JK Dobbins – 0
AJ Dillon – 0

Round 3
Antonio Gibson – 1
Ke’Shawn Vaughn – 0
Zack Moss – 0
Darrynton Evans – 0



2021
Round 1
Najee Harris – 1
Travis Etienne – 1

Round 2
Javonte Williams – 0

Round 3
Trey Sermon – 0

[Orenthal Shames]

I was genuinely surprised to see Kamara has never once hit 1k rushing

[Dynasty DeLorean]

I was genuinely surprised to see Kamara has never once hit 1k rushing

Yeah, he’s quite the outlier in terms of having a ton of fantasy and real life success without ever being a high output rusher. He was only ever on pace to hit 1k yards just once.

[wickerkat1212]

I was genuinely surprised to see Kamara has never once hit 1k rushing

Yeah, he’s quite the outlier in terms of having a ton of fantasy and real life success without ever being a high output rusher. He was only ever on pace to hit 1k yards just once.

He does get a lot of short passes/receptions, which distorts his numbers IMO. He may go 60 rush and 40 rec/6 rec = 16 points in 1 ppr leagues.

[TheTroll]

I was genuinely surprised to see Kamara has never once hit 1k rushing

Yeah, he’s quite the outlier in terms of having a ton of fantasy and real life success without ever being a high output rusher. He was only ever on pace to hit 1k yards just once.

He does get a lot of short passes/receptions, which distorts his numbers IMO. He may go 60 rush and 40 rec/6 rec = 16 points in 1 ppr leagues.

Absolutely. He has been one of the first FF RB hybrids. Rushing stats don’t apply to him.

[yinzername]

i think i wanna buy Spears

[mild]

i think i wanna buy Spears

So long as it's for a short-term window I think it's fine. Certainly the Callahan hire for OL is huge, he's created one of the best lines in CLE since he arrived there. (Although there's a massive gap between CLE's talent group at OL and TEN's)

I'm still bracing for Spears knee to fall off at some point, but I can't argue that he didn't look sharp and spry last season.

[yinzername]

^snap that’s right he’s the no knee guy. Yeah he doesn’t fit my timeline. Thanks for the reminder

[Dynasty DeLorean]

Just looking at the numbers, I don't think anyone is going to qualify for Tier 1 this year. This hasn't happened since 2019. Basically, the murmurs are correct... this RB class isn't very good. 2019 we got several usable Rb's but none of them studs really. Jacobs was really the only one who established himself as a trustworthy RB for a long period of time, and he became an outlier to this model by putting up 3 1k+ yard rushing seasons.

Other Rb's drafted that year. Miles Sanders, David Montgomery, Tony Pollard, Devin Singletary, Darrell Henderson, Damien Harris, Alexander Mattison. They've all had their ups and downs but never really became "the guy" for a long stretch of time.

[wickerkat1212]

Just looking at the numbers, I don't think anyone is going to qualify for Tier 1 this year. This hasn't happened since 2019. Basically, the murmurs are correct... this RB class isn't very good. 2019 we got several usable Rb's but none of them studs really. Jacobs was really the only one who established himself as a trustworthy RB for a long period of time, and he became an outlier to this model by putting up 3 1k+ yard rushing seasons.

Other Rb's drafted that year. Miles Sanders, David Montgomery, Tony Pollard, Devin Singletary, Darrell Henderson, Damien Harris, Alexander Mattison. They've all had their ups and downs but never really became "the guy" for a long stretch of time.

Look forward to your thoughts as I have the 2.02 and 2.04 in a Superflex and I'm eyeballing some RBs, but IDK.

[81-]

I think there will be a couple of decent ones. Dal and MN both need a warm body pretty bad. I'll consider one or two with my late 2nd rounders.

[Dynasty DeLorean]

This is a big ask. Anyone familiar with how playerprofiler calculates college dominator percentage, what is Trey Bensons? I feel like their numbers aren’t accurate this year.