Richardson vs Caleb Williams

[SteveMaddensShoes]

Wondering how we feel about these two?

Saw Richardson go 11th overall in a SF startup last night. I have owners in my league inquiring about him. On the surface it seems like it's obvious Williams is a better prospect than Richardson, but Richardson's situation is perfect. And with Williams being a year out, what if he disappoints next year? Get's injured? Ends up on a team/situion that's kind of crappy like the Bears?

If given the chance and you were 100% certain you could make the swap today for Williams, would you? Why or why not?

[StripesOfKC]

The one who has shown the ability to pass the football well

[yinzername]

CW

[Shcritters]

The question with Williams is where he will land, not if he can pass. If Williams 'fails to meet expectations' he will be a QB2.
The question with Richardson is if he can pass, not where he will land. If Richardson 'fails to meet expectations' he'll be out of the league in 3 years.

Give me Williams by a lot.

[YouMightDieTryin]

Wondering how we feel about these two?

Saw Richardson go 11th overall in a SF startup last night. I have owners in my league inquiring about him. On the surface it seems like it's obvious Williams is a better prospect than Richardson, but Richardson's situation is perfect. And with Williams being a year out, what if he disappoints next year? Get's injured? Ends up on a team/situion that's kind of crappy like the Bears?

If given the chance and you were 100% certain you could make the swap today for Williams, would you? Why or why not?

Even TLaw struggled his first year and made people question him, but eventually he shows why he was ranked so highly. Don't second guess this for a flash in the pan guy.

[moishetreats]

Imagine this question before the combine. Are the combine's results enough for such a dramatic change in player evaluation and valuation? Not for me.

[gogobradyarm]

Imagine this question before the combine. Are the combine's results enough for such a dramatic change in player evaluation and valuation? Not for me.

I mean, are we going to point at the combine and completely ignore that he has 4th overall draft capital?

It wouldn't surprise me to see Richardson have a massive rookie season and be worth more than Caleb Williams come draft time. Justin Fields can't pass and was a top 5 QB in fantasy, that was without really any help. I think Richardson offers similar upside but I think he is gonna surpass Fields. Question is can he do what Hurts or Lamar have done and develop more as a passer, and I think the answer is, it may not matter for his first two seasons, guy is gonna be a fantasy stud just running the ball. I have no issue taking Richardson over him for fantasy purposes, especially if you're a win now team.

[CGW]

CW for me. He's a real QB. Richardson might be if he can develop.

Sure, it could work out that Richardson is the better asset, but as prospects, I want the guy who can make all the throws, read defenses, and make his way through his progressions.

[moishetreats]

Imagine this question before the combine. Are the combine's results enough for such a dramatic change in player evaluation and valuation? Not for me.

I mean, are we going to point at the combine and completely ignore that he has 4th overall draft capital?

It wouldn't surprise me to see Richardson have a massive rookie season and be worth more than Caleb Williams come draft time. Justin Fields can't pass and was a top 5 QB in fantasy, that was without really any help. I think Richardson offers similar upside but I think he is gonna surpass Fields. Question is can he do what Hurts or Lamar have done and develop more as a passer, and I think the answer is, it may not matter for his first two seasons, guy is gonna be a fantasy stud just running the ball. I have no issue taking Richardson over him for fantasy purposes, especially if you're a win now team.

That's double counting, I believe. With a good combine, I don't think Richardson goes #4. Not even close. It's the combine, IMO, that shot up his draft value. So I consider his draft equity / combine ONE single data point in his favor and not two separate ones.

[tstafford]

I think this is a ceiling vs. floor question.

Do you want the running upside of AR or the security of the next Luck/Burrow/Herbert type?

Give me CW.

[mild]

Goodness me this is CW by a landslide. Let's not forget CW can rush a little as well - 380 and 440 yards in his two years so far; that's definitely not nothing.

We're talking about a highly refined product vs. a lump of clay.

A glorious lump of extremely high quality clay, to be sure... but he's a way off from sniffing CW's rarified air.

[moishetreats]

I think this is a ceiling vs. floor question.

Do you want the running upside of AR or the security of the next Luck/Burrow/Herbert type?

Give me CW.

I get what you're going for here, but I don't think it bears out. Since 2013:

-Luck himself has had three top-6 finishes (including a #1 finish in 2014)
-Herbert was #2 in 2021
-Burrow was #4 in 2022 and #5 in 2021
-We see guys like Lawrence, Brady, Stafford, Roethlisberger, Winston, Ryan, and Brees have multiple top-6 seasons just since 2013
-And Mahomes adds points with his legs, but I don't think we'd consider him a running QB (like AR, Fields, Hurts, Allen)

I just don't think the rushing QBs have that much clearer an upside than elite passers. Maybe a slightly better chance in a given year of finishing #1 overall. But if you're looking at top-3, top-6, I just don't see a major benefit to the rushing QBs.

So the security and projected longevity of the predominantly pocket passers, to me, is FAR more valuable since the ceiling is the same (or many one or two spots off at most). It's not a meaningful ceiling gap to me.

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One note: different leagues have different scoring systems. My stats come from 4pts for a passing TD, 6 for rushing. If your league is much heavily weighted toward rushing, then it might take reevaluation. But 4pts passing is already on the low end. And 1 pt / 25 yards passing, 1 pt / 10 yards rushing.

[Bronco Billy]

Williams and it’s not close.

[dynastyninja]

I expected more AR votes here and I'm glad I'm not seeing them. He's such a mediocre QB. His upside is fools gold and way too much value is being assigned to his rushing ability. He could have a few good fantasy years, but he's going to have to improve pretty dramatically as a passer to last in the NFL.

[FantasyFreak]

I think this is a ceiling vs. floor question.

Do you want the running upside of AR or the security of the next Luck/Burrow/Herbert type?

Give me CW.

Yep. I think Richardson has the highest ceiling, but Caleb the much better ceiling/floor combo. Caleb has functional athleticism, but won't be a runner in the NFL. Richardson could be Hurts plus if he hits his ceiling, but could be a total bust as well.

Have to remember, Herbert wasn't a prospect that was quite as highly touted as Burrow, and definitely not Luck, though. Lawrence would be a better guy to throw in there, over Herbert. There were definitely questions about Herbert succeeding in the NFL, he wasn't an elite prospect, or a "can't miss guy".