Michael Wilson - WR - Cardinals (Stanford)

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Michael Wilson - WR - Cardinals (Stanford)

Postby Lumps » Tue Jun 20, 2023 8:41 am

Continuing on with starting threads for players I'm planting a flag on.

Michael Wilson

Receiving Statistics
Season GP REC YDS TD Long REC/G AVG/C AVG/G
2018 13 14 126 1 26 1.1 9.0 9.7
2019 12 56 672 5 47 4.7 12.0 56.0
2020 4 19 261 1 38 4.8 13.7 65.3
2021 4 19 185 0 19 4.8 9.7 46.3
2022 6 26 418 4 78 4.3 16.1 69.7
Total 39 134 1662 11 78 3.4 12.4 42.6

Stats aren't going to wow you for sure and you'll hear "injury concerns" when he is discussed. He suffered a Jones fracture (early Julio Jones years if you remember) which required surgery. Like Julio, he reinjured this the next year and had to have surgery again. Finally, he fractured his collarbone as well. These kinds of injuries aren't a chronic thing, such hamstrings (specifically for WRs) or other soft tissue problems. Largely, this just meant we didn't get to SEE him.

Had a sophomore breakout with Davis Mills at the helm. Between injuries, Stanford sucking, and Tanner McKee being bad... there isn't much to see of late.

He popped on my radar with him destroying DBs at the Senior Bowl. He could have received MVP honors if his QB (Haener) didn't get it.
Wilson was one of the best stories from Senior Bowl week. The 6-foot-2, 215-pound receiver turned heads due to his understanding of how to win at the position. He was consistently getting early separation on his releases off the line of scrimmage. And in his route stem and at his breaks, he was once again enhancing the throwing window… He went from a relative unknown (in the media’s eyes) to a Day 2 pick.
Jim Nagy, executive director for the Senior Bowl, who rang the bell for McLaurin when he had him there, says Micheal Wilson is the top sleeper at ANY position and will be the draft's biggest steal. Here is his Twitter thread on why he feels that way about Wilson, which includes references to Adams:
https://twitter.com/JimNagy_SB/status/1 ... 8786432006

Chris Simms, if it matters to you, has him as the #4 WR in this draft:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FNkEvLm ... l=NFLonNBC

Combine:

6'2 213 pounds
40 - 4.58 10 yard - 1.5
Vert - 37.5" Long - 10'5"
3 cone (Pro Day) - 6.81

PAC 12 All Academic every year.
GF is Portland Thorns Sophia Smith NWSL MVP


Why should you care about any of this for someone who missed lots of time in college?

It seems that the momentum he had during/after the Senior Bowl got slowed a little after he didn't run a fast 40. We have seen that blazing 40s aren't the key to WRs succeeding, but separation is. His release packages and understanding his body in space are elite. That isn't hyperbole - see the Nagy tweet thread.

Injuries? Referenced above, but the key here is that they were 1 offs and not recurring soft tissue issues.

Cost? The upside potential here is absolutely worth the cost. In my devy league I traded Hardman for the pick used to draft him. Others have gotten him in the 3rd/4th of their drafts.

The Cardinals are going to be trash, though! Yeah, it's very possible they will be a raging dumpster fire. Kyler will be out and the other options are Colt McCoy and rookie Clayton Tune. It would be best for him, for Tune to win the job in camp IMO.

There are other reasons to be positive here. If they are bad, they may wind up with 1.1 next year. They also have the Texans pick if needed to be able to move up for a QB, should their own pick not be where they want it. Caleb Williams, Drake Maye, and Quinn Ewers are possible new QBs in Arizona if they want to move on from Kyler.

The final thing, is look at the Cardinals WRs depth chart. The tallest starting WR outside of Wilson (should he start) is Hollywood at 5'9. The heaviest starting WR outside of Wilson is Rondale Moore. Hopkins is now gone. There was a regime change in Arizona. They did not trade for Brown nor draft Moore. They drafted Wilson and he is the best thing they have as an X.

Highlights: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0NvAlaK ... Highlights
His draft day story and him with his trainer TJ Houshmandzadeh: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O9Ox4Vl ... TFarmMedia
Last edited by Lumps on Tue Jun 20, 2023 8:49 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Michael Wilson - WR - Cardinals (Stanford)

Postby Anteaters » Tue Jun 20, 2023 8:48 am

Lumps wrote: Tue Jun 20, 2023 8:41 amContinuing on with starting threads for players I'm sort of planting a flag on.
Sorry, but I can't participate in this thread until you commit to planting the flag. Go all in, with gusto!!! :!:
TEAM 1:
12 Team ppr w/20 keepers - start 1QB 2RB 3WR 1TE 1FLX 6IDP 1DEF
QB: Tua, Lamar, Levis
RB: Etienne, Pacheco, JavonteWms, JFord, CEH
WR: Lamb, JChase, Waddle, Pickens, MWilliams, Q Johnston
TE: Goedert, Friermuth
DEF: Cowboys, Ravens
IDP:(LB) Bolton, Greenlaw; (DE/DL) ZCollins, BJHill; (S/CB) Pitre, Bates, Witherspoon
2023 & 2022 Champion: 2020 third place: 2019 Champion

TEAM 2:
14 Team 30roster SF/ppr/TEP - QB/RB/WR/TE/5FLX/SF
QB: Tua, CJStroud, Carr, AOC, MWhite, Lock
RB: Etienne, Stevenson, GusE, AJD, Singletary, CEH, Spiller
WR: Amon-Ra, Kirk, Dell, Thielen, Gallup, Ch Jones
TE: Andrews, Waller, Taysom, Smythe, WMallory, JOliver
2023 semifinals loser

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Re: Michael Wilson - WR - Cardinals (Stanford)

Postby Lumps » Tue Jun 20, 2023 8:50 am

Anteaters wrote: Tue Jun 20, 2023 8:48 am
Lumps wrote: Tue Jun 20, 2023 8:41 amContinuing on with starting threads for players I'm sort of planting a flag on.
Sorry, but I can't participate in this thread until you commit to planting the flag. Go all in, with gusto!!! :!:
As you might imagine, I was doing a lot of editing for this thread. I removed a bunch of stuff there at the top. I corrected my statement to be more firm. I'm all in.
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Re: Michael Wilson - WR - Cardinals (Stanford)

Postby YouMightDieTryin » Tue Jun 20, 2023 9:20 am

Lamps.

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Re: Michael Wilson - WR - Cardinals (Stanford)

Postby Bronco Billy » Tue Jun 20, 2023 9:28 am

His cost is relatively very low. I got him at 4.03 in a 14 team IDP league draft. A lot of the analytic gurus have him off their radar because he doesn’t fit a previously successful model, but this guy was so man-amongst-boys at the Senior Bowl. Watching film of him and how easily he fooled the DBs there was definitely eye opening.

This appears to be a strong match of athletic ability/skills/opportunity. The injury history is absolutely a concern, but the risk is so low given the upside on the payoff.

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Re: Michael Wilson - WR - Cardinals (Stanford)

Postby ericanadian » Tue Jun 20, 2023 9:34 am

Bronco Billy wrote: Tue Jun 20, 2023 9:28 am His cost is relatively very low. I got him at 4.03 in a 14 team IDP league draft. A lot of the analytic gurus have him off their radar because he doesn’t fit a previously successful model, but this guy was so man-amongst-boys at the Senior Bowl. Watching film of him and how easily he fooled the DBs there was definitely eye opening.

This appears to be a strong match of athletic ability/skills/opportunity. The injury history is absolutely a concern, but the risk is so low given the upside on the payoff.
I’m not sure which analytic gurus you’d be referring to. He surpassed the 30% dominator. His breakout age is well below the standard cutoff. He’s not short in any athletic testing. What metrics would people be using to throw him out?
All I Der Is Win - 16 Team IDP League (Pass TD 6pts)

QB - Stafford, Stroud, Tune
RB - Swift, Hall, Penny, Bigsby, Ford
WR - Pittman, Olave, Di. Johnson, G. Wilson, J. Williams, Metchie, Robinson, M. Wilson
TE - Okonkwo, Schoonmaker
LB - Brooks, R. Smith, Phillips
DL - Crosby, Allen, Simmons
DB - D. James, Baker, Delpit
K - Just a stupid kicker

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Re: Michael Wilson - WR - Cardinals (Stanford)

Postby Bronco Billy » Tue Jun 20, 2023 9:53 am

ericanadian wrote: Tue Jun 20, 2023 9:34 am
Bronco Billy wrote: Tue Jun 20, 2023 9:28 am His cost is relatively very low. I got him at 4.03 in a 14 team IDP league draft. A lot of the analytic gurus have him off their radar because he doesn’t fit a previously successful model, but this guy was so man-amongst-boys at the Senior Bowl. Watching film of him and how easily he fooled the DBs there was definitely eye opening.

This appears to be a strong match of athletic ability/skills/opportunity. The injury history is absolutely a concern, but the risk is so low given the upside on the payoff.
I’m not sure which analytic gurus you’d be referring to. He surpassed the 30% dominator. His breakout age is well below the standard cutoff. He’s not short in any athletic testing. What metrics would people be using to throw him out?
You were directly involved in the Wilson discussion in the non-rookie thread. You should know exactly what I’m talking about. 5th year senior with no dominant year, etc

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Re: Michael Wilson - WR - Cardinals (Stanford)

Postby ericanadian » Tue Jun 20, 2023 10:26 am

Bronco Billy wrote: Tue Jun 20, 2023 9:53 am
ericanadian wrote: Tue Jun 20, 2023 9:34 am
Bronco Billy wrote: Tue Jun 20, 2023 9:28 am His cost is relatively very low. I got him at 4.03 in a 14 team IDP league draft. A lot of the analytic gurus have him off their radar because he doesn’t fit a previously successful model, but this guy was so man-amongst-boys at the Senior Bowl. Watching film of him and how easily he fooled the DBs there was definitely eye opening.

This appears to be a strong match of athletic ability/skills/opportunity. The injury history is absolutely a concern, but the risk is so low given the upside on the payoff.
I’m not sure which analytic gurus you’d be referring to. He surpassed the 30% dominator. His breakout age is well below the standard cutoff. He’s not short in any athletic testing. What metrics would people be using to throw him out?
You were directly involved in the Wilson discussion in the non-rookie thread. You should know exactly what I’m talking about. 5th year senior with no dominant year, etc
The senior thing is pretty meaningless on its own. It mostly just piggy backs on breakout age (most guys going back hadn’t broken out and was part of why they went back), as there is no real reason why going back for a senior season would mean a receiver can’t cut it in the NFL.

On the dominant season, he did have a dominant season. That’s the whole point of dominator rating. If you clear 30% its generally accepted as dominant.
All I Der Is Win - 16 Team IDP League (Pass TD 6pts)

QB - Stafford, Stroud, Tune
RB - Swift, Hall, Penny, Bigsby, Ford
WR - Pittman, Olave, Di. Johnson, G. Wilson, J. Williams, Metchie, Robinson, M. Wilson
TE - Okonkwo, Schoonmaker
LB - Brooks, R. Smith, Phillips
DL - Crosby, Allen, Simmons
DB - D. James, Baker, Delpit
K - Just a stupid kicker

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Re: Michael Wilson - WR - Cardinals (Stanford)

Postby Sriracha » Tue Jun 20, 2023 12:01 pm

ericanadian wrote: Tue Jun 20, 2023 10:26 am
Bronco Billy wrote: Tue Jun 20, 2023 9:53 am
ericanadian wrote: Tue Jun 20, 2023 9:34 am

I’m not sure which analytic gurus you’d be referring to. He surpassed the 30% dominator. His breakout age is well below the standard cutoff. He’s not short in any athletic testing. What metrics would people be using to throw him out?
You were directly involved in the Wilson discussion in the non-rookie thread. You should know exactly what I’m talking about. 5th year senior with no dominant year, etc
The senior thing is pretty meaningless on its own. It mostly just piggy backs on breakout age (most guys going back hadn’t broken out and was part of why they went back), as there is no real reason why going back for a senior season would mean a receiver can’t cut it in the NFL.

On the dominant season, he did have a dominant season. That’s the whole point of dominator rating. If you clear 30% its generally accepted as dominant.
Even Sophomore breakouts that come out their Senior year have an abysmal hit rate. Analytically, he's a poor prospect, period.

It's fair to say that he might've given us that boom year and might've declared early if his momentum wasn't derailed by injuries; Which is the reason I'm comfortable chucking the analytics for this player out the window given what he shows on the field.

Completely agree with Lumps here and I'm not even talking about him in a "he's worth the shot at his ADP" kind of way. I feel he's still going way too low in drafts and I suspect his August ADP is going to be significantly higher even after the Hopkins trade bump.

As good as he already is he has both the mentality and the traits needed to be a truly great fantasy WR. I haven't been this far above consensus on a player since Diontae Johnson for much the same reasons. Elite traits coupled with the ability to dominate press coverage and the ability to separate make for an easy NFL projection.

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Re: Michael Wilson - WR - Cardinals (Stanford)

Postby Bronco Billy » Tue Jun 20, 2023 12:18 pm

Sriracha wrote: Tue Jun 20, 2023 12:01 pm
ericanadian wrote: Tue Jun 20, 2023 10:26 am
Bronco Billy wrote: Tue Jun 20, 2023 9:53 am

You were directly involved in the Wilson discussion in the non-rookie thread. You should know exactly what I’m talking about. 5th year senior with no dominant year, etc
The senior thing is pretty meaningless on its own. It mostly just piggy backs on breakout age (most guys going back hadn’t broken out and was part of why they went back), as there is no real reason why going back for a senior season would mean a receiver can’t cut it in the NFL.

On the dominant season, he did have a dominant season. That’s the whole point of dominator rating. If you clear 30% its generally accepted as dominant.
Even Sophomore breakouts that come out their Senior year have an abysmal hit rate. Analytically, he's a poor prospect, period.

It's fair to say that he might've given us that boom year and might've declared early if his momentum wasn't derailed by injuries; Which is the reason I'm comfortable chucking the analytics for this player out the window given what he shows on the field.

Completely agree with Lumps here and I'm not even talking about him in a "he's worth the shot at his ADP" kind of way. I feel he's still going way too low in drafts and I suspect his August ADP is going to be significantly higher even after the Hopkins trade bump.

As good as he already is he has both the mentality and the traits needed to be a truly great fantasy WR. I haven't been this far above consensus on a player since Diontae Johnson for much the same reasons. Elite traits coupled with the ability to dominate press coverage and the ability to separate make for an easy NFL projection.
Nice evaluation and I’m with you on being higher on him than the consensus.

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Re: Michael Wilson - WR - Cardinals (Stanford)

Postby RoyalPalmer » Tue Jun 20, 2023 11:27 pm

It's between Dell and Wilson (with Perry peeping into through the window? For my favorite dart throw of the draft.

Dells size scares me a touch more than Wilson's health.
12 team, .5PPR, 1QB, 2RB, 2WR, 1TE, 2RB/WR/TE, 1 SuperFlex, 25 Total (Startup)
QB: Purdy, Zach Wilson, Hendon Hooker, Aidan O'Connell, Stetson Bennett, Mariota, Trubisky
RB: KeAndre Miller, Tank Bigsby, Jordan Mason, Kevin Harris
WR: Tank Dell, Rashod Bateman, Jameson Williams, Kadarius Toney, Darnell Mooney, Michael Wilson, DJ Chark, Slayton, Robert Woods, Khalil Shakir
TE LaPorta, Kincaid, J Ferguson

2024 1st (3x)
2024 2nd
2024 3rd
———

QB: Jake Allen, Goff, Darnold, AOC, Jimmy G
RB: Mixon, Kamara, Javonte Williams, Charbonnet, Prince, Jordon Mason, Ingram (AZ)
WR: Ja'Marr Chase, Keenan Allen, Drake London, Brandon Aiyuk, Elijah Moore, Marvin Jones, Paris Campbell, Donovon Peoples-Jones
TE: Kincaid, Noah Fant, Likely

2024 2nd
2024 3rd

12 team, .5PPR, TE Premium, 1QB, 2RB, 2WR, 1TE, 2RB/WR/TE, 1 SuperFlex, 25 Total (Startup)

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Re: Michael Wilson - WR - Cardinals (Stanford)

Postby Anteaters » Wed Jun 21, 2023 3:20 am

RoyalPalmer wrote: Tue Jun 20, 2023 11:27 pm It's between Dell and Wilson (with Perry peeping into through the window? For my favorite dart throw of the draft.

Dells size scares me a touch more than Wilson's health.
I agree these may be the two I like most as dart throws in the 3rd or later. A bit further down is Charlie Jones in CIN, who could be a learner for 2023 who steps up in 2024 if Higgins and/or Boyd move on.
TEAM 1:
12 Team ppr w/20 keepers - start 1QB 2RB 3WR 1TE 1FLX 6IDP 1DEF
QB: Tua, Lamar, Levis
RB: Etienne, Pacheco, JavonteWms, JFord, CEH
WR: Lamb, JChase, Waddle, Pickens, MWilliams, Q Johnston
TE: Goedert, Friermuth
DEF: Cowboys, Ravens
IDP:(LB) Bolton, Greenlaw; (DE/DL) ZCollins, BJHill; (S/CB) Pitre, Bates, Witherspoon
2023 & 2022 Champion: 2020 third place: 2019 Champion

TEAM 2:
14 Team 30roster SF/ppr/TEP - QB/RB/WR/TE/5FLX/SF
QB: Tua, CJStroud, Carr, AOC, MWhite, Lock
RB: Etienne, Stevenson, GusE, AJD, Singletary, CEH, Spiller
WR: Amon-Ra, Kirk, Dell, Thielen, Gallup, Ch Jones
TE: Andrews, Waller, Taysom, Smythe, WMallory, JOliver
2023 semifinals loser

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Re: Michael Wilson - WR - Cardinals (Stanford)

Postby YouMightDieTryin » Wed Jun 21, 2023 7:52 am

Anteaters wrote: Wed Jun 21, 2023 3:20 am
RoyalPalmer wrote: Tue Jun 20, 2023 11:27 pm It's between Dell and Wilson (with Perry peeping into through the window? For my favorite dart throw of the draft.

Dells size scares me a touch more than Wilson's health.
I agree these may be the two I like most as dart throws in the 3rd or later. A bit further down is Charlie Jones in CIN, who could be a learner for 2023 who steps up in 2024 if Higgins and/or Boyd move on.
Shhhhhhh... :shh:

I have the same idea, but I also think they'd just draft a replacement if that were to happen.

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Re: Michael Wilson - WR - Cardinals (Stanford)

Postby Anteaters » Wed Jun 21, 2023 9:21 am

YouMightDieTryin wrote: Wed Jun 21, 2023 7:52 am
Anteaters wrote: Wed Jun 21, 2023 3:20 am
RoyalPalmer wrote: Tue Jun 20, 2023 11:27 pm It's between Dell and Wilson (with Perry peeping into through the window? For my favorite dart throw of the draft.

Dells size scares me a touch more than Wilson's health.
I agree these may be the two I like most as dart throws in the 3rd or later. A bit further down is Charlie Jones in CIN, who could be a learner for 2023 who steps up in 2024 if Higgins and/or Boyd move on.
Shhhhhhh... :shh:

I have the same idea, but I also think they'd just draft a replacement if that were to happen.
If Jones shows enough, maybe they'll figure he can be their WR2 and they'll draft other needs. That's my hope anyway. Naturally, next year they'll draft a WR in the first round.
TEAM 1:
12 Team ppr w/20 keepers - start 1QB 2RB 3WR 1TE 1FLX 6IDP 1DEF
QB: Tua, Lamar, Levis
RB: Etienne, Pacheco, JavonteWms, JFord, CEH
WR: Lamb, JChase, Waddle, Pickens, MWilliams, Q Johnston
TE: Goedert, Friermuth
DEF: Cowboys, Ravens
IDP:(LB) Bolton, Greenlaw; (DE/DL) ZCollins, BJHill; (S/CB) Pitre, Bates, Witherspoon
2023 & 2022 Champion: 2020 third place: 2019 Champion

TEAM 2:
14 Team 30roster SF/ppr/TEP - QB/RB/WR/TE/5FLX/SF
QB: Tua, CJStroud, Carr, AOC, MWhite, Lock
RB: Etienne, Stevenson, GusE, AJD, Singletary, CEH, Spiller
WR: Amon-Ra, Kirk, Dell, Thielen, Gallup, Ch Jones
TE: Andrews, Waller, Taysom, Smythe, WMallory, JOliver
2023 semifinals loser

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Re: Michael Wilson - WR - Cardinals (Stanford)

Postby Lumps » Wed Jun 21, 2023 9:23 am

Anteaters wrote: Wed Jun 21, 2023 9:21 am
YouMightDieTryin wrote: Wed Jun 21, 2023 7:52 am
Anteaters wrote: Wed Jun 21, 2023 3:20 am
I agree these may be the two I like most as dart throws in the 3rd or later. A bit further down is Charlie Jones in CIN, who could be a learner for 2023 who steps up in 2024 if Higgins and/or Boyd move on.
Shhhhhhh... :shh:

I have the same idea, but I also think they'd just draft a replacement if that were to happen.
If Jones shows enough, maybe they'll figure he can be their WR2 and they'll draft other needs. That's my hope anyway. Naturally, next year they'll draft a WR in the first round.
Michael Wilson thread. Not Tank Dell, not Charlie Jones, not whatever else. Can we stay on track for at least the 1st page? :wall:
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