Jaxon Smith-Njigba: the thread

[CGW]

I'm really hoping he's "only a slot receiver" year one behind Lockett and DK. Will help me buy him everywhere.

Projecting WRs is really hard, but I don't see anyone with anywhere near his upside in this class while still maintaining a pretty healthy floor. His low end outcome may be a "slot only guy", but those of you peddling that as his ceiling are selling him short. I agree his skill set lends itself to a slot role, but there is a chance he's a capable outside receiver, just as several "slot guys" have been the past few years. He's got quickness, size, and length to make tough catches downfield we just haven't seen enough yet to know if he can do it at the next level.

Let's not forget, Wilson and Olave themselves considered JSN the best of the bunch. Of course they could have just been trying to help boost his draft stock...but WRs don't tend to be a humble bunch.

[FantasyFreak]

Well, JJ did have his breakout as an outside receiver. No one noticed because the offense as a whole was garbage. He was also pushed down in the draft because there were four very highly regarded RBs, Ceedee Lamb and a fifth RB with great metrics. For me, JJ was the fifth option, because I thought (and think) that Akers had garbage vision. I’m sure some people bumped other guys ahead of him for whatever reason, so sure he could’ve slid in some drafts. I don’t think the general consensus had him much lower than six though.

Not sure where he fit in most leagues with RB, but I distinctly remember the consensus being Jeudy/Lamb then Jefferson/Ruggs/Reagor.

That’s true. Jeudy was ahead of him as well, so probably seventh. Ruggs dropped pretty much everywhere that I saw. Some might have slotted Reagor ahead of him, but man that was a bad decision.

So JSN is the consensus WR1 by most. So what if he's Jeudy, and the JJ of the class, like JJ was, is the guy that was taken later. It can be seen that way too. As I said, JSN is my WR1, but saying he might be JJ level, because nobody saw JJ that way in rookie drafts, kind of also lends to the idea that it's quite possible the best WR from this class isn't actually JSN. Food for thought.

[wickerkat1212]

Jeudy went ahead of JJ in my Dynasty #4. I know, because I took Jeudy at #6, and then the #7 took Jefferson, and I traded Waller for JJ straight up. IDK what I was thinking not taking JJ.

[Cameron Giles]

Jeudy went ahead of JJ in my Dynasty #4. I know, because I took Jeudy at #6, and then the #7 took Jefferson, and I traded Waller for JJ straight up. IDK what I was thinking not taking JJ.

The entire dynasty community missed on Justin Jefferson. It's why it's always funny when he's used as a revisionist example to explain why a prospect doesn't have what it takes to be a certain level of player. Nobody thought Justin Jefferson was going to be Justin Jefferson.

[wickerkat1212]

Jeudy went ahead of JJ in my Dynasty #4. I know, because I took Jeudy at #6, and then the #7 took Jefferson, and I traded Waller for JJ straight up. IDK what I was thinking not taking JJ.

The entire dynasty community missed on Justin Jefferson. It's why it's always funny when he's used as a revisionist example to explain why a prospect doesn't have what it takes to be a certain level of player. Nobody thought Justin Jefferson was going to be Justin Jefferson.

I can remember being really high on him, stoked for sure, but cannot remember WHY I took Jeudy over Jefferson. I kept trying to trade in to get the 1.07 and couldn't do it, so when the guy took him, I was pissed. I offered Waller when he was at his PEAK/PRIME and was shocked that the guy took the offer straight up. But that was probably one of the best trades I've ever made.

[Sriracha]

Jeudy went ahead of JJ in my Dynasty #4. I know, because I took Jeudy at #6, and then the #7 took Jefferson, and I traded Waller for JJ straight up. IDK what I was thinking not taking JJ.

The entire dynasty community missed on Justin Jefferson. It's why it's always funny when he's used as a revisionist example to explain why a prospect doesn't have what it takes to be a certain level of player. Nobody thought Justin Jefferson was going to be Justin Jefferson.

Cooper Kupp, Stefon Diggs, the Sun God are a few other examples of elite receivers not coming out as the greatest prospects. No one knows how much these guys are going to improve once they enter the league... but everyone wants to set arbitrary ceilings on them before they've seen them play a single down in the NFL

[nathanq42]

Jeudy went ahead of JJ in my Dynasty #4. I know, because I took Jeudy at #6, and then the #7 took Jefferson, and I traded Waller for JJ straight up. IDK what I was thinking not taking JJ.

The entire dynasty community missed on Justin Jefferson. It's why it's always funny when he's used as a revisionist example to explain why a prospect doesn't have what it takes to be a certain level of player. Nobody thought Justin Jefferson was going to be Justin Jefferson.

I can remember being really high on him, stoked for sure, but cannot remember WHY I took Jeudy over Jefferson. I kept trying to trade in to get the 1.07 and couldn't do it, so when the guy took him, I was pissed. I offered Waller when he was at his PEAK/PRIME and was shocked that the guy took the offer straight up. But that was probably one of the best trades I've ever made.

Jeudy had all the hype and the NFL draft told us that. Nothing wrong with it, not like we are pro scouts or anything, nothing wrong with going Jeudy over JJ honestly, probably better process than reaching on JJ at a pick where Jeudy was available. I wasnt even sure if I liked JJ better than Reagor, but I am a slut for analytics

[gunfrees]

Not sure where he fit in most leagues with RB, but I distinctly remember the consensus being Jeudy/Lamb then Jefferson/Ruggs/Reagor.

That’s true. Jeudy was ahead of him as well, so probably seventh. Ruggs dropped pretty much everywhere that I saw. Some might have slotted Reagor ahead of him, but man that was a bad decision.

So JSN is the consensus WR1 by most. So what if he's Jeudy, and the JJ of the class, like JJ was, is the guy that was taken later. It can be seen that way too. As I said, JSN is my WR1, but saying he might be JJ level, because nobody saw JJ that way in rookie drafts, kind of also lends to the idea that it's quite possible the best WR from this class isn't actually JSN. Food for thought.

With how the Jeudy/JJ draft played out, it looks like there’s some merit in years with multiple 1st round receivers to possibly move back and just take the cheapest one (or don’t move up from a 1st rnd WR to take another 1st rnd WR)

[Cameron Giles]

That’s true. Jeudy was ahead of him as well, so probably seventh. Ruggs dropped pretty much everywhere that I saw. Some might have slotted Reagor ahead of him, but man that was a bad decision.

So JSN is the consensus WR1 by most. So what if he's Jeudy, and the JJ of the class, like JJ was, is the guy that was taken later. It can be seen that way too. As I said, JSN is my WR1, but saying he might be JJ level, because nobody saw JJ that way in rookie drafts, kind of also lends to the idea that it's quite possible the best WR from this class isn't actually JSN. Food for thought.

With how the Jeudy/JJ draft played out, it looks like there’s some merit in years with multiple 1st round receivers to possibly move back and just take the cheapest one (or don’t move up from a 1st rnd WR to take another 1st rnd WR)

Depending on the league, Reagor and Ruggs were cheaper than Jefferson. So, that strategy can still blow up in your face pretty big. I don't know if it's necessarily about going for the cheapest WR. And if you moved up from Ruggs/Reagor to Jefferson, it changed your team.

[Tvols]

I see a Julian Edelman type career with JSN but on steroids. He could be seriously good for FF.

[Bronco Billy]

So JSN is the consensus WR1 by most. So what if he's Jeudy, and the JJ of the class, like JJ was, is the guy that was taken later. It can be seen that way too. As I said, JSN is my WR1, but saying he might be JJ level, because nobody saw JJ that way in rookie drafts, kind of also lends to the idea that it's quite possible the best WR from this class isn't actually JSN. Food for thought.

With how the Jeudy/JJ draft played out, it looks like there’s some merit in years with multiple 1st round receivers to possibly move back and just take the cheapest one (or don’t move up from a 1st rnd WR to take another 1st rnd WR)

Depending on the league, Reagor and Ruggs were cheaper than Jefferson. So, that strategy can still blow up in your face pretty big. I don't know if it's necessarily about going for the cheapest WR. And if you moved up from Ruggs/Reagor to Jefferson, it changed your team.

WRs are a crap shoot no matter how well you prepare. There’s just no way to know how they’ll transfer mentally when they go up against pro coverage because the cover guys in the NFL are so much more athletic, stronger and skilled in coverage ability than almost anything these guys saw in college. Guys who put up huge numbers and could get open at will in college suddenly have a CB in their jersey their whole route or have a hand stuck between theirs as the ball arrives or simply can’t get into their routes on time.

[FantasyFreak]

With how the Jeudy/JJ draft played out, it looks like there’s some merit in years with multiple 1st round receivers to possibly move back and just take the cheapest one (or don’t move up from a 1st rnd WR to take another 1st rnd WR)

Depending on the league, Reagor and Ruggs were cheaper than Jefferson. So, that strategy can still blow up in your face pretty big. I don't know if it's necessarily about going for the cheapest WR. And if you moved up from Ruggs/Reagor to Jefferson, it changed your team.

WRs are a crap shoot no matter how well you prepare. There’s just no way to know how they’ll transfer mentally when they go up against pro coverage because the cover guys in the NFL are so much more athletic, stronger and skilled in coverage ability than almost anything these guys saw in college. Guys who put up huge numbers and could get open at will in college suddenly have a CB in their jersey their whole route or have a hand stuck between theirs as the ball arrives or simply can’t get into their routes on time.

For real. We like to think we know, but we really don't. There are some that are safer than others. Cooper was extremely safe. He carved out closer to his floor than ceiling for a career, IMO. Kevin White was the "upside" guy that year. The big ceiling, and as it turns out a floor that was actually the basement floor.

I think JSN is safer than QJ, but not much safer than Addison. I don't see a massive difference between JSN and Addison. I like Flowers, but his situation is a big question mark for me. I don't think there are high ceiling guys in this class, or at least guys likely to hit that. Brett Kollmann (sp?) made the point QJ has the highest ceiling, but it's a big IF, he puts it all together, because he really hasn't, at this point.

[Gazzerk]

This is all great stuff. I got Bijan and JSN in my rookie draft and I’m excited to see how both take the next step. I think JSN definitely had the tools he needs to succeed but it’s on him to put them together and take that step. Saying he will be elite would be about as correct as saying he will be a total bust. We won’t know until either one happens. I will say that while Seattle is a sort of middling landing spot, I actually like the situation for him. Less pressure from the defense to get settled and he fills a roll that seemed to be missing there. Geno was apparently the best deep ball passer in the league last season which I think was aided quite a bit by DK and Lockett. Those 2 are great at taking the top off of defenses and that will really open things up for JSN especially when they have to account for the RBs as well. Geno is a very accurate passer and is good at throwing into tight spaces in the middle of the field. I could easily see JSN turning into his safety blanket while DK and Lockett wreak havoc on the outside.

Even if Seattle decides to run more, there should be plenty of opportunity. They approached 600 pass attempts last season. I could see the overall number of offensive attempts increasing with how good this offense can be and the passing attempts still staying roughly in that range. Geno needs to keep the good times rolling for any of this to work as well.

That’s a bit of where my optimism comes from but I also understand the risk of ending up with just an average guy in the end. The WR class was underwhelming in this class. I loved Addison throughout his college career but I just liked JSN a bit more. I was torn between the 2 but definitely knew I wanted nothing to do with QJ.

[Sriracha]

So JSN is the consensus WR1 by most. So what if he's Jeudy, and the JJ of the class, like JJ was, is the guy that was taken later. It can be seen that way too. As I said, JSN is my WR1, but saying he might be JJ level, because nobody saw JJ that way in rookie drafts, kind of also lends to the idea that it's quite possible the best WR from this class isn't actually JSN. Food for thought.

With how the Jeudy/JJ draft played out, it looks like there’s some merit in years with multiple 1st round receivers to possibly move back and just take the cheapest one (or don’t move up from a 1st rnd WR to take another 1st rnd WR)

Depending on the league, Reagor and Ruggs were cheaper than Jefferson. So, that strategy can still blow up in your face pretty big. I don't know if it's necessarily about going for the cheapest WR. And if you moved up from Ruggs/Reagor to Jefferson, it changed your team.

JSN compares much closer to Cee Dee Lamb from that 2020 class than he does Jerry Jeudy. Jeudy was the first WR taken but Lamb was head and shoulders the best analytical prospect given similar draft capital.

Every year is different but this WR class reminds me of 2019's where it was full of a number of WRs with elite strengths coupled with massive weaknesses + a Cee Dee Lamb level prospect in JSN.

I'd expect more than a few of the mid level WRs to see a lot of success in the same way that Deebo, Diontae and McLaurin emerged from that draft class.

[FantasyFreak]

With how the Jeudy/JJ draft played out, it looks like there’s some merit in years with multiple 1st round receivers to possibly move back and just take the cheapest one (or don’t move up from a 1st rnd WR to take another 1st rnd WR)

Depending on the league, Reagor and Ruggs were cheaper than Jefferson. So, that strategy can still blow up in your face pretty big. I don't know if it's necessarily about going for the cheapest WR. And if you moved up from Ruggs/Reagor to Jefferson, it changed your team.

JSN compares much closer to Cee Dee Lamb from that 2020 class than he does Jerry Jeudy. Jeudy was the first WR taken but Lamb was head and shoulders the best analytical prospect given similar draft capital.

Every year is different but this WR class reminds me of 2019's where it was full of a number of WRs with elite strengths coupled with massive weaknesses + a Cee Dee Lamb level prospect in JSN.

I'd expect more than a few of the mid level WRs to see a lot of success in the same way that Deebo, Diontae and McLaurin emerged from that draft class.

What analytics are you using for JSN?

Dominator rating isn't even close. If you're using the 30% threshold for breakout age, which many do, JSN never even broke out. Lamb's YPR nearly doubled JSN's in college, too. Explosive plays were way higher. Jeudy was no slouch at 17.4 YPR. How is he comparable to Lamb on analytics, exactly? Would love it if you could clarify this.