Jaxon Smith-Njigba: the thread

[mild]

If Jordan Addison deserves his very own thread, then so does this guy: our rookie 2023 Dynasty WR1... Jaxon Smith-Njigba.

Personally, I love the player and I think there's pretty much not a safer "non-Bijan" selection out of the "big 6" in Superflex leagues. I'm sitting at 1.04 in my main league with an outrageous contender that doesn't need any one position - and I've been really struggling going back and forth between Gibbs, JSN, and the QB's (Young/Stroud - as a pure "value" play). I'm square in my window as the favourite, so I'm leaning with one of the Skill Guys in an effort to add another "difference maker" to push for the 'ship - and I've found myself leaning JSN some weeks... I feel like we've almost forgotten how ridiculously good this guy was just a scant 1.5 years ago.

I was going to reply in the Addison thread, but this is a better path. Ladies and Gentleman: let's talk JSN.

JSN just looks to be in a different stratosphere compared to other wrs in this draft.

he just looks more explosive to add to his crisp route running. i wouldn't pick another wr over him.

JSN is going to have a lot of people shaking their heads wondering why they downgraded him based on forgetting how elite he runs routes because they haven't seen it for a year.

He's my WR1, and agree he runs good routes, but did the NFL forget? He went at 20, 1 spot ahead of the next WR. The NFL didn't see a gap between he and the next group of WR's. He's a slot only player, IMO. At least, for the most part, and some of these other guys aren't, so different strokes.

I think there's a very good chance Addison outproduces JSN this year, due to scheme, and situation. I wouldn't take Addison over him if I had the choice, but I honestly wouldn't trade that much to move up 1 spot to get JSN over him either.

To the people that think JSN is a "slot only" player - why? Are we sure that limiting him to that box is correct, just because it's all he's shown us "so far" in one massive year whilst playing alongside literally 2 of the best outside WR's in the world?

He's going to be best inside, but there's no doubt in my mind he can be serviceable outside, too. And what if there's even more hiding there? We just don't know yet, because we can't. It's still a projection... for a guy we already agree is the rookie WR1, based on what he's already done. What if there's more here?

You know who else thinks he can play outside and be more than just "slot only"? Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Take a listen.

There's another 6'1 200lb 4.4x WR I can think of that played exclusively "big slot" in college alongside a future elite outside WR. I remember writing him off as "just a slot player" back then, too - and fading Justin Jefferson was a lesson I took as "hard learned". We just don't know yet.

For a WR as good at running routes as JSN, I don't think we should be projecting his ceiling outcome as "Slot Only" when we consider the prospect. Even if he does only deliver on what we've already seen (him dominating as an elite slot) then there is still an awesome path there based on the new-school NFL game with other elite inside guys like Kupp and ARSB. That tape is out there; any good OC knows how to scheme those plays in 2023. JSN profiles as potentially that special, but maybe even more... in nearly every way, he's rock-solid. We need to price in more unknown upside, imo - because not being able to play outside on a team with Olave and Garrett Wilson shouldn't be taken as a knock - especially when he out-produced them to the level that he did.

Worth remembering that JSN was a five-star HS recruit in the same class as Jordan Addison (also a five-star). Obviously, that means nothing directly towards his NFL prospects, but it's not like he was this random bench player who came out of nowhere and started producing because of Olave and Wilson. Ohio State just had an embarassment of riches in the WR room and no team in the nation has three NFL-level corners to throw against them.

We just didn't get to see JSN play alone for a meaningful enough sample size. But, there's no reason on tape to believe he couldn't handle primary coverage.

We can have it the other way here too, though. For those with questions about how he's going to match up against NFL #1 Corners "because he was getting covered by RB's and future special teamers" in college... like... when? When will he have to do that?

The future in Seattle is DK and JSN.

If teams are already taking their best CB off of DK Metcalf and putting them on JSN going forward at any point, then we'll already have our answer.

Until that happens? He's going to feast, just like Addison is going to feast, against the 2nd-best (or even 3rd best in his early career) Corner - every game. Time and again, we've seen it - the only knock on JSN is his long speed - but you don't need elite long speed to be an effective outside WR. Just ask our 4.43 6'1 200lb WR King of the known WR Universe, Justin Jefferson.

That is why I think there is possibly no safer pick after Bijan that you can make in this draft. Thankyou for coming to my Ted Talk, inshallah.

[FantasyFreak]

I think his quickness is best suited for the 2 way go in the slot. I think he'd struggle more vs outside corners, running boundary routes. Not saying he can't, just that his skill set is best suited to the slot.

As I said, he's my favourite WR of this class, and he'd be best utilized in the slot. At least the vast majority of the time. No shame in that. Would be best for his FF upside too, IMO. I mean, DK sometimes lines up in the slot. He CAN do it, but he's better suited to the outside, most of the time.

I think JSN is a perennial WR2 with backend WR1 upside, but the scheme and target share may limit him for our fake game, compared to some other teams he may have ended up on. Doesn't change how good a football player he is, how often do the guys we really like go to the best possible situation? Chase, Bijan, perhaps got close to that. AJB only hit his true ceiling once he got out of TEN. JSN, while not the worst situation, is more middle of the pack in terms of best/worst spot.

[Bronco Billy]

This guy ain’t the second coming of Jefferson. He’s nowhere near the athlete Jefferson is and he’s completely unproven on the outside.

Here’s the secret on JSN that no one wants to discuss. He’s totally unproven. Yeah, he has looked good on tape, but against who? OSU was so loaded at outside receiver in 2021 that Jameson transferred to ‘Bama because he was quite likely the 4th best outside receiver in the room. We've seen what Wilson and Olave are capable of and Marvin Harrison Jr - possibly the best of that group - was there also.

Opposing DCs had to cover Wilson and Olave on the outside because if they were going to get beat it wasn’t going to be long TDs to those guys, and they sure weren’t going to put both CBs on islands against them. They’d rather surrender plays in the middle to the slot guy. That means at a minimum Ds were throwing their best 3 and maybe 4 cover guys against them. Oh - but wait, those 2 didn’t play against Utah in the bowl game where JSN went off. No, but Utah had both starting CBs hurt in that game as well as one of their 2nd string CBs. They were so decimated in the secondary that they started a freshman RB at CB, and with both outside stud WRs out, in came Harrison Jr who had to be accounted for - and had a good game. Well, what about Nebraska when Wilson was out? Again, Harrison Jr stepped in and with Olave they again took away all the top coverage, plus Nebraska’s pass D sucked.

Bottom line: Yeah, JSN looked great and put up superb numbers but against who? Cover guys who won’t even be on NFL 90 man rosters in training camp, that’s who. His numbers were greatly inflated because Ds simply did not have anyone who could cover him and the top coverage was aimed at the outside guys. He made a bunch of future accountants, engineers, jr managers, and burger flippers look bad. He went against no one near what he’ll see in the NFL where slot CBs are damned good DBs and the Ss and some LBs can run with him.

I’m not saying JSN is going to fail. He’s got some strong qualities. But he will not be head and shoulders above the coverage he saw in college, he’s going to be evenly matched or even at a disadvantage at times in the NFL. And he does have some flaws that NFL players will expose.

Throwing high 1st round picks at him is a mistake IMO. His 2021 production was a mirage created by a perfect storm that he fell into. He’s going to struggle some against NFL level coverage, and then that doesn’t even get into that Carroll may be going back to running the ball a lot more given the quality of RBs SEA has now and that he historically has been a lot more successful when he runs a lot. That also limits Geno throwing the ball, which is also a good thing for the SEA O. JSN’s opportunities are going to be much more limited and he’s not going to see 18 targets in a game like he did against Nebraska in 2021. JSN fits that kind of O because he is a solid receiver, but he’s also a good blocker for a receiver.

Buyer beware. He probably ought to be the 3rd or 4th WR off FF draft boards. He is not the stud he’s being made out to be. IMO of course.

[FantasyFreak]

He's not JJ, no doubt Billy. He's also not close to running low 4.4's, either. He's closer to 4.6. Here's the thing that makes him a really good fit for the slot. That agility score. 99th percentile. He needs to win inside 15-20 yards, because he's not going to win to often beyond that. I think he can carve out a role as one of the top slot WR's in the game, and catch 80 plus passes yearly.

https://www.playerprofiler.com/nfl/jaxon-smith-njigba/

Also, Lance is by no means to be taken as gospel, but in his breakdown, Zierlien said this (and he gets a lot of intel from NFL sources)

-Below average top-end speed to win vertically.
-Likely to be viewed as a slot-only option.

I'm not the only one saying this, and again, it doesn't mean it's a bad thing. ARSB is a slot only option, pretty much, and he's a pretty damn good FF option.

[Bronco Billy]

He's not JJ, no doubt Billy. He's also not close to running low 4.4's, either. He's closer to 4.6. Here's the thing that makes him a really good fit for the slot. That agility score. 99th percentile. He needs to win inside 15-20 yards, because he's not going to win to often beyond that. I think he can carve out a role as one of the top slot WR's in the game, and catch 80 plus passes yearly.

https://www.playerprofiler.com/nfl/jaxon-smith-njigba/

Let’s say I concede that. I’ll give JSN his 80 catches. As a slot receiver in the NFL we’re looking at what - 10.5 ypr for the top slot guys? Say he manages 11 ypr somehow. That still less than 900 yds in a season. Is that what you’re hoping your 1.03 tops out at?

[FantasyFreak]

He's not JJ, no doubt Billy. He's also not close to running low 4.4's, either. He's closer to 4.6. Here's the thing that makes him a really good fit for the slot. That agility score. 99th percentile. He needs to win inside 15-20 yards, because he's not going to win to often beyond that. I think he can carve out a role as one of the top slot WR's in the game, and catch 80 plus passes yearly.

https://www.playerprofiler.com/nfl/jaxon-smith-njigba/

Let’s say I concede that. I’ll give JSN his 80 catches. As a slot receiver in the NFL we’re looking at what - 10.5 ypr for the top slot guys? Say he manages 11 ypr somehow. That still less than 900 yds in a season. Is that what you’re hoping your 1.03 tops out at?

His college YPR was quite low, and that tends to be a decent marker. I did say 80 plus. I think the ceiling is likely ARSB, and the floor is what you are saying. 80/900 or so. Not year 1 for the floor, but his prime. I think he's safe. QJ could be a 1300 plus yard WR, he could also be a complete bust that just can't translate to the NFL.

In this class, I think beyond the 2 RB's (taking the QB's out), when talking about WR's exclusively, he's the safest play. Depends if you're a swing for the fences type guy. I think JSN will be a very good WR2 for a while. It's about risk tolerance, because there are riskier options with potentially higher upside, certainly.

[mild]

He's not JJ, no doubt Billy. He's also not close to running low 4.4's, either. He's closer to 4.6. Here's the thing that makes him a really good fit for the slot. That agility score. 99th percentile. He needs to win inside 15-20 yards, because he's not going to win to often beyond that. I think he can carve out a role as one of the top slot WR's in the game, and catch 80 plus passes yearly.

https://www.playerprofiler.com/nfl/jaxon-smith-njigba/

He literally ran a 4.48 at the OSU pro day?

Even if you're adding a generous 0.05 to that, that's still a 4.53.

I may not have an advanced degree in Chigonomics, but I'm pretty sure we still call that "closer to 4.5" than 4.6, even in your doomsday scenario.

Let’s say I concede that. I’ll give JSN his 80 catches. As a slot receiver in the NFL we’re looking at what - 10.5 ypr for the top slot guys? Say he manages 11 ypr somehow. That still less than 900 yds in a season. Is that what you’re hoping your 1.03 tops out at?

Cooper Kupp 2022: 10.8 YPR.
ARSB 2022: 11.0 YPR.

I wouldn't be mad at it. Just becomes a usage thing from there.

Drake London had an 800 yard season and increased in value over the offseason. You could do worse for your rookie season.

Obviously, I think he could do better, too.

[FantasyFreak]

He's not JJ, no doubt Billy. He's also not close to running low 4.4's, either. He's closer to 4.6. Here's the thing that makes him a really good fit for the slot. That agility score. 99th percentile. He needs to win inside 15-20 yards, because he's not going to win to often beyond that. I think he can carve out a role as one of the top slot WR's in the game, and catch 80 plus passes yearly.

https://www.playerprofiler.com/nfl/jaxon-smith-njigba/

He literally ran a 4.48 at the OSU pro day?

Don't trust the article or tweets that comes out right after it. There is constantly erroneous and inaccurate info coming out after pro days. Just look at Izzy, running in the 4.2's. Playerprofiler is the gold standard IMO. They get their info from the sources at the pro day, and I believe eliminate the outlier times, and get a baseline average, if hand timed by multiple scouts. They have done extensive research to come up with the 0.05, which is on the generous side for the runner, they have stated that. They are very accurate, and their info is to be trusted over an article that comes out based on tweets right after a pro day, where someone maybe talked to one source to get a time.

[Bronco Billy]

He's not JJ, no doubt Billy. He's also not close to running low 4.4's, either. He's closer to 4.6. Here's the thing that makes him a really good fit for the slot. That agility score. 99th percentile. He needs to win inside 15-20 yards, because he's not going to win to often beyond that. I think he can carve out a role as one of the top slot WR's in the game, and catch 80 plus passes yearly.

https://www.playerprofiler.com/nfl/jaxon-smith-njigba/

He literally ran a 4.48 at the OSU pro day?

Even if you're adding a generous 0.05 to that, that's still a 4.53.

I may not have an advanced degree in Chigonomics, but I'm pretty sure we still call that "closer to 4.5" than 4.6, even in your doomsday scenario.

Let’s say I concede that. I’ll give JSN his 80 catches. As a slot receiver in the NFL we’re looking at what - 10.5 ypr for the top slot guys? Say he manages 11 ypr somehow. That still less than 900 yds in a season. Is that what you’re hoping your 1.03 tops out at?

Cooper Kupp 2022: 10.8 YPR.
ARSB 2022: 11.0 YPR.

I wouldn't be mad at it. Just becomes a usage thing from there.

Drake London had an 800 yard season and increased in value over the offseason. You could do worse for your rookie season.

Obviously, I think he could do better, too.

OSU has a notoriously fast track. Scouts add .08 to .10s to 40s run there because history has shown that be be a reasonable accounting for it. Plus his tape does not show him to play faster in pads than in a tee and shorts on a premium running surface.

And you’re supposing as a rookie in SEA’s O that JSN is going to match production with Kupp’s and ARSB’s vet level?

[wickerkat1212]

I love JSN. He is my favorite WR in this class, and by a bit of a margin. Bijan and JSN are the two guys I really think are "blue chip" and Bijan may be elite. I only got one share of JSN since I moved up to 1.01 in several leagues. I took him at 1.06 in my Superflex, after taking Bijan at 1.01. I passed on Gibbs (Addison went at 1.05) to take JSN there. No, he's not Chase or Jefferson, I'd put him closer to Lamb/Olave as far as potential, but yes, I think he can be a low WR1 or high WR2. In 1 ppr I think he can be a pretty amazing slot guy. I'm drinking the Kool-Aid, all of it. All-in. Been high on him for a year or more now. (And yes, I had him rated at 1.02 for my rankings.)

[mild]

Here’s the secret on JSN that no one wants to discuss. He’s totally unproven.

I guess you and I are just going to have to disagree on what putting up a 95 rec, 1606 yard season with 9 touchdowns WHILST playing with Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave proves.

Opposing DCs had to cover Wilson and Olave on the outside because if they were going to get beat it wasn’t going to be long TDs to those guys, and they sure weren’t going to put both CBs on islands against them. They’d rather surrender plays in the middle to the slot guy. That means at a minimum Ds were throwing their best 3 and maybe 4 cover guys against them.

"OOooh!" *Raises hand* "Pick me, pick meeeeeeee, I know this one!"

So what you're saying is, he's going to almost exactly the same situation that he thrived in with two All-Pro WR's playing outside that can dictate the coverage that JSN sees in the Pros during his Rookie Season?

Good point there, Billy! Wish I'd thought of it...

[mild]

OSU has a notoriously fast track. Scouts add .08 to .10s to 40s run there because history has shown that be be a reasonable accounting for it. Plus his tape does not show him to play faster in pads than in a tee and shorts on a premium running surface.

Steve Smith disagrees with you. He thinks he plays faster than his 40 time.

But what does he know...

[Bronco Billy]

Here’s the secret on JSN that no one wants to discuss. He’s totally unproven.

I guess you and I are just going to have to disagree on what putting up a 95 rec, 1606 yard season with 9 touchdowns WHILST playing with Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave proves.

Opposing DCs had to cover Wilson and Olave on the outside because if they were going to get beat it wasn’t going to be long TDs to those guys, and they sure weren’t going to put both CBs on islands against them. They’d rather surrender plays in the middle to the slot guy. That means at a minimum Ds were throwing their best 3 and maybe 4 cover guys against them.

"OOooh!" *Raises hand* "Pick me, pick meeeeeeee, I know this one!"

So what you're saying is, he's going to almost exactly the same situation that he thrived in with two All-Pro WR's playing outside that can dictate the coverage that JSN sees in the Pros during his Rookie Season?

Good point there, Billy! Wish I'd thought of it...

So you’re opining that college level 3rd/4th best cover guys are as good as the same in the NFL, and where you’ll even see some NFL teams move their best CBs into the slot if the slot receiver is that good? You post that and then you mock me? Wow, congrats sport, you really torched me there.

[FantasyFreak]

I love JSN. He is my favorite WR in this class, and by a bit of a margin. Bijan and JSN are the two guys I really think are "blue chip" and Bijan may be elite. I only got one share of JSN since I moved up to 1.01 in several leagues. I took him at 1.06 in my Superflex, after taking Bijan at 1.01. I passed on Gibbs (Addison went at 1.05) to take JSN there. No, he's not Chase or Jefferson, I'd put him closer to Lamb/Olave as far as potential, but yes, I think he can be a low WR1 or high WR2. In 1 ppr I think he can be a pretty amazing slot guy. I'm drinking the Kool-Aid, all of it. All-in. Been high on him for a year or more now. (And yes, I had him rated at 1.02 for my rankings.)

I only see 1 blue chip prospect, and that's the RB that went top 10. Some may argue Gibbs is blue chip, a RB going that high there's an argument, but he's more of a role player than a do it all guy. No WR went until 20. There is no blue chip prospect at WR in this class.

Now that doesn't mean they can't become a blue chip player. JJ wasn't a blue chip prospect, but the metrics were more on his side. Cooper Kupp was drafted in round 3, AB well after that. It's possible players can become blue chip players, even though they weren't blue chip prospects. IF you're right, you're ahead of the curve. It's within the range of outcomes, though I don't think it's as likely he becomes a true difference maker in FF. I think he can be a productive part of a FF roster, though.

I think we tend to put rose coloured glasses on at this time of year, but hey, if JSN is your guy, good for you. He's my WR1, but I don't think this class is that strong, at it lacks any elite prospects IMO. Not every class will have Chase, or JJ. Doesn't mean the players won't be good, though.

[FantasyFreak]

OSU has a notoriously fast track. Scouts add .08 to .10s to 40s run there because history has shown that be be a reasonable accounting for it. Plus his tape does not show him to play faster in pads than in a tee and shorts on a premium running surface.

Steve Smith disagrees with you. He thinks he plays faster than his 40 time.

But what does he know...

Steve Smith also thinks Skyy Moore is going to be really good, so I hope he knows a lot.