Trade: Which side?

[Shcritters]

Which side of the trade would you take? This is for a contending team, 12-team SF & TE super premium (1.5 ppr, .15pts/rec-yd).

[Gator Sens]

This comes down to how you view each class as of now. If you would rather have an early 1st in next year's class, I would go that route and take the hit in the immediate. With both picks looking top four next year and only moving one early pick this year, I think the 1.12+ side comes out ahead long term. The only pause for me would be if there is any chance the teams early 1sts in 2024 could be better than you think realistically. If the picks are safely early because the team is just that bad and you are not crazy about the early pick in this class, go for the 1.12 + here.

[nyterp]

I think for a contending team, I lean with the early pick this year. I just see the tier gap between 1.03 and 1.12 not worth the wait for the likely high pick next year. I think this even more if this is for your team in your sig. You need a QB3 for that team with it being SF.

In rebuild/uncertain I go the other way.

[moishetreats]

Easily the early 2024 1st side for me. That pick is, IMO, the most valuable asset in a trade. And, unless you urgently need whatever player you'd get at 1.03, I'd much rather have the extra draft capital in the future:

1) If you need to bolster your playoff push, that pick will be gold to do it.
2) If you make your push without needing to trade, then you're going to be in great shape to extend your team's run.

There just simply isn't a player at 1.03 this year I'm really excited about.

[Shcritters]

Interesting takes so far, surprised that the vote is for this years' 1.03. I just look at the 1.03 and ask 'who will help my team this year'... and I see nobody. If the answer is nobody, then why not trade back and accumulate more draft capital?

This is especially interesting because I had league-mates threatening to quit the league because of this trade saying that this other team - who, legitimately, I've traded 1sts with the past 3 offseasons - continually finishes so low and is 'feeding early picks to my team'. This 1.03 was this team's pick which I traded a late 2022 1st for (which he used on Christian Watson).

My team is aging... I've probably got one more run in it with Chubb/Cook/Conner/Hill all reaching the age cliff and then it is time for a teardown. FWIW I've been trying to tear it down for 2 years and nobody will trade for any of those players...

[BigBawseRoss]

if young is there at 3 i take him if not i take the package

[Shcritters]

if young is there at 3 i take him if not i take the package

Highly believe that Bijan and ARich will be 1.01 and 1.02. On Young... take him because he's BPA? I have Mahomes and Prescott - I doubt that Young overtakes either of them this year in my starting lineup unless injuries happen.

[j4pac]

Interesting takes so far, surprised that the vote is for this years' 1.03. I just look at the 1.03 and ask 'who will help my team this year'... and I see nobody. If the answer is nobody, then why not trade back and accumulate more draft capital?

This is especially interesting because I had league-mates threatening to quit the league because of this trade saying that this other team - who, legitimately, I've traded 1sts with the past 3 offseasons - continually finishes so low and is 'feeding early picks to my team'. This 1.03 was this team's pick which I traded a late 2022 1st for (which he used on Christian Watson).

My team is aging... I've probably got one more run in it with Chubb/Cook/Conner/Hill all reaching the age cliff and then it is time for a teardown. FWIW I've been trying to tear it down for 2 years and nobody will trade for any of those players...

This was suppose to be a legendary class…there is no guarantee that next year will be any better. You can’t guarantee that next years 1st will even be early. This is an easy choice for me. Get players that can help you this year

[stpilots98]

Interesting takes so far, surprised that the vote is for this years' 1.03. I just look at the 1.03 and ask 'who will help my team this year'... and I see nobody. If the answer is nobody, then why not trade back and accumulate more draft capital?

This is especially interesting because I had league-mates threatening to quit the league because of this trade saying that this other team - who, legitimately, I've traded 1sts with the past 3 offseasons - continually finishes so low and is 'feeding early picks to my team'. This 1.03 was this team's pick which I traded a late 2022 1st for (which he used on Christian Watson).

My team is aging... I've probably got one more run in it with Chubb/Cook/Conner/Hill all reaching the age cliff and then it is time for a teardown. FWIW I've been trying to tear it down for 2 years and nobody will trade for any of those players...

This was suppose to be a legendary class…there is no guarantee that next year will be any better. You can’t guarantee that next years 1st will even be early. This is an easy choice for me. Get players that can help you this year

Exactly my thoughts on looking ahead to draft classes. Remember when this was a “can’t miss class”
Also, projected early doesn’t mean it’s going to be early. Keep the 3rd overall.

[TheTroll]

Interesting takes so far, surprised that the vote is for this years' 1.03. I just look at the 1.03 and ask 'who will help my team this year'... and I see nobody. If the answer is nobody, then why not trade back and accumulate more draft capital?

This is especially interesting because I had league-mates threatening to quit the league because of this trade saying that this other team - who, legitimately, I've traded 1sts with the past 3 offseasons - continually finishes so low and is 'feeding early picks to my team'. This 1.03 was this team's pick which I traded a late 2022 1st for (which he used on Christian Watson).

My team is aging... I've probably got one more run in it with Chubb/Cook/Conner/Hill all reaching the age cliff and then it is time for a teardown. FWIW I've been trying to tear it down for 2 years and nobody will trade for any of those players...

This was suppose to be a legendary class…there is no guarantee that next year will be any better. You can’t guarantee that next years 1st will even be early. This is an easy choice for me. Get players that can help you this year

Exactly my thoughts on looking ahead to draft classes. Remember when this was a “can’t miss class”
Also, projected early doesn’t mean it’s going to be early. Keep the 3rd overall.

Exactly! Picks look great now can easily change over a year.

[Shcritters]

Interesting commentary here. The advocates for the 1.03 side seem to have two main arguments:

1). Those 2024 picks may not end up being early.
The team I traded with has finished 9th, 11th, 11th, 12th, 10th, so pretty confident they will be early picks. Totally get the anxiety, but I’m up for taking that risk, especially with a player at 1.03 that wouldn’t be able to immediately help my team.

2). Future draft classes can’t be trusted.
This sounds like a little bit of an over-correction from the ‘2023 is transcendental’ narrative. Yes, this class fell short of expectations - where people this time last year were saying to trade late 1st for early 2023 2nds- but there are 3 ‘Bijan type’ players coming out next year in Harrison Jr (better than JSN), Caleb Williams (the next best QB prospect since Trevor), and Bowers (possibly a top 5 TE prospect EVER).

There’s uncertainty in everything in fantasy… gotta take risks somewhere!

Will be fun to revisit this one in a year to see how it played out!

[Eight7Seven]

So I don't play TE premium, but I have to imagine that both Kincaid, Sam LaPorta & Mayers get ADP jumps in that format. Making both the 1.12 & 2.03 slightly more valuable in this deep class. I'm really liking this side of the deal, but I agree so much hinges on your evaluation of the team with the "early" '24 picks, if it surprises than this could backfire spectacularly.

[Shcritters]

So I don't play TE premium, but I have to imagine that both Kincaid, Sam LaPorta & Mayers get ADP jumps in that format. Making both the 1.12 & 2.03 slightly more valuable in this deep class. I'm really liking this side of the deal, but I agree so much hinges on your evaluation of the team with the "early" '24 picks, if it surprises than this could backfire spectacularly.

You're exactly right. Both those players will likely go in that range - as they could both be back-end TE1's (which would be ~10% less points scored than a top 12 WR). The TEP in this league really changes things.

And yes - this could backfire (as with any future 1st trade)... but a risk I'm willing to take!