What are people doing with Justin Fields, buying or selling?

[epsilonindi]

1QB league: I know it depends on the price, of course, absolutely -- but in general are people looking to buy into Fields before he takes an actual leap this year with better weapons around him, or are Fields owners looking to cash out because of the expectation that he'll improve his passing efficiency and volume with better weapons?

Are people true believers, or not?

[Finfansteve]

Sold him last year straight up right as he started to blow up for Justin Herbert. Now I have to figure out if I’m keeping Lamar or Herbert in my start 1qb keeper league

[thebadferret]

SF

Sold him and a first last year for Burrow. Unfortunately my team completely busted and the pick turned out to be the 1.02

[FantasyFreak]

Not a believer.

[j4pac]

I could go either way. I don’t think he’s a long term option but I think he’ll be quite good for at least a few seasons. But if he gets a big injury, his stock will tank. He’s not there with Lawrence, Herbert, and Jackson. Definitely a tier below. Probably more comparable to Tua, rookies, and Daniel Jones.

[MFundercover]

I think it's just a matter of him being able to hold on to his starting job. Defenses will adjust but they wont be able to take away his rushing upside entirely, hes just too fast. So for fantasy purposes I think hes a locked in qb1 with top 5 upside as long as he remains a starter.

[collbey]

6 pt passing TD, selling.
4 pt passing TD, holding but not buying.

[Cameron Giles]

This feels like Jalen Hurts all over again.

- Fields was QB5 last season despite averaging 150 passing yards/gm.
- Chicago was dead last in passing play % at 43.81%. So even regression in rushing yards, Fields will more than make up for it with volume and development as a passer.
- They added D.J. Moore and Chase Claypool (only played 48% of the snaps post-trade).
- Improved offensive line.
- 2nd year in an offense.

Fields seems like an easy breakout candidate this year. I'm not sure why he would be a sell.

[wickerkat1212]

I'd be buying.

[Jigga94]

I would buy. Or sell. Depends on the cost

[frerichs5]

If he matches Hurts ~20% increase in passing last year, that only gets him to Ryan Tannehill (in 12 games)/Jacoby Brissett (in 11 games) levels of passing.

Even if Fields matches Josh Allen’s insane 50% increase in passing from a few years ago, that still only puts him around Daniel Jones, Matt Ryan, Davis Mills, etc. He’s great for fantasy, but I’m not convinced he’s a long term option yet. Hard to see him remaining a starting QB for long without improvement we’ve never seen before.

[FantasyFreak]

This feels like Jalen Hurts all over again.

- Fields was QB5 last season despite averaging 150 passing yards/gm.
- Chicago was dead last in passing play % at 43.81%. So even regression in rushing yards, Fields will more than make up for it with volume and development as a passer.
- They added D.J. Moore and Chase Claypool (only played 48% of the snaps post-trade).
- Improved offensive line.
- 2nd year in an offense.

Fields seems like an easy breakout candidate this year. I'm not sure why he would be a sell.

I don't see it this way at all. Yes, they have added talent, and should pass a bit more, but I don't think he's going to sniff the level of play or stats Hurts hit. Fields has a lot of warts to his game, and I am not sure DJ=AJB, in fact I know he doesn't. Hurts also had Devonta Smith, who is waaaaaaay better than any WR on the bears not named DJM. In fact, I'd argue he's better than DJM. The Eagles had the best offensive line in the league, arguably, and a better RB. Also had a much, much better TE.

Fields should improve on his numbers as a passer, it would be hard not too, but I think projecting it like Hurts is a pipe dream. Hurts improvement from one year to the next was astronomical, and quite an outlier. This doesn't happen that often.

[wickerkat1212]

This feels like Jalen Hurts all over again.

- Fields was QB5 last season despite averaging 150 passing yards/gm.
- Chicago was dead last in passing play % at 43.81%. So even regression in rushing yards, Fields will more than make up for it with volume and development as a passer.
- They added D.J. Moore and Chase Claypool (only played 48% of the snaps post-trade).
- Improved offensive line.
- 2nd year in an offense.

Fields seems like an easy breakout candidate this year. I'm not sure why he would be a sell.

I don't see it this way at all. Yes, they have added talent, and should pass a bit more, but I don't think he's going to sniff the level of play or stats Hurts hit. Fields has a lot of warts to his game, and I am not sure DJ=AJB, in fact I know he doesn't. Hurts also had Devonta Smith, who is waaaaaaay better than any WR on the bears not named DJM. In fact, I'd argue he's better than DJM. The Eagles had the best offensive line in the league, arguably, and a better RB. Also had a much, much better TE.

Fields should improve on his numbers as a passer, it would be hard not too, but I think projecting it like Hurts is a pipe dream. Hurts improvement from one year to the next was astronomical, and quite an outlier. This doesn't happen that often.

He's a better fantasy QB than NFL QB right now. He was the #8 QB last year in my leagues. He is going to be better. That's a solid QB1 with huge upside IMO.

[FantasyFreak]

This feels like Jalen Hurts all over again.

- Fields was QB5 last season despite averaging 150 passing yards/gm.
- Chicago was dead last in passing play % at 43.81%. So even regression in rushing yards, Fields will more than make up for it with volume and development as a passer.
- They added D.J. Moore and Chase Claypool (only played 48% of the snaps post-trade).
- Improved offensive line.
- 2nd year in an offense.

Fields seems like an easy breakout candidate this year. I'm not sure why he would be a sell.

I don't see it this way at all. Yes, they have added talent, and should pass a bit more, but I don't think he's going to sniff the level of play or stats Hurts hit. Fields has a lot of warts to his game, and I am not sure DJ=AJB, in fact I know he doesn't. Hurts also had Devonta Smith, who is waaaaaaay better than any WR on the bears not named DJM. In fact, I'd argue he's better than DJM. The Eagles had the best offensive line in the league, arguably, and a better RB. Also had a much, much better TE.

Fields should improve on his numbers as a passer, it would be hard not too, but I think projecting it like Hurts is a pipe dream. Hurts improvement from one year to the next was astronomical, and quite an outlier. This doesn't happen that often.

His rushing certainly helps, but the way he gained a lot of his rushing yards last year isn't sustainable. Not a sticky stat, the amount of breakaway runs he had, almost has to come down, and he also got banged up, so you'd hope (as a Bears fan), he'd not be running quite as much this year. I am just not a believer in him as a QB, for FF in the next couple of years, he should be fine. I'm not willing to pay the price owners would want at this point. The time to buy would have been earlier last season.

He's a better fantasy QB than NFL QB right now. He was the #8 QB last year in my leagues. He is going to be better. That's a solid QB1 with huge upside IMO.

[Cameron Giles]

This feels like Jalen Hurts all over again.

- Fields was QB5 last season despite averaging 150 passing yards/gm.
- Chicago was dead last in passing play % at 43.81%. So even regression in rushing yards, Fields will more than make up for it with volume and development as a passer.
- They added D.J. Moore and Chase Claypool (only played 48% of the snaps post-trade).
- Improved offensive line.
- 2nd year in an offense.

Fields seems like an easy breakout candidate this year. I'm not sure why he would be a sell.

I don't see it this way at all. Yes, they have added talent, and should pass a bit more, but I don't think he's going to sniff the level of play or stats Hurts hit. Fields has a lot of warts to his game, and I am not sure DJ=AJB, in fact I know he doesn't. Hurts also had Devonta Smith, who is waaaaaaay better than any WR on the bears not named DJM. In fact, I'd argue he's better than DJM. The Eagles had the best offensive line in the league, arguably, and a better RB. Also had a much, much better TE.

Fields should improve on his numbers as a passer, it would be hard not too, but I think projecting it like Hurts is a pipe dream. Hurts improvement from one year to the next was astronomical, and quite an outlier. This doesn't happen that often.

To be fair, a year ago you didn't believe Hurts was going to sniff the level of play he eventually hit despite me saying all of the exact reasons that you're now giving me to explain why he did break out. Hurts improvement was not an outlier. It was a breakout that many were actually predicting. Now, Josh Allen's breakout was an outlier.

I'm not saying the Bears are the 2023 Eagles, I'm just saying that Fields is in an optimal position to make a similar statistical jump in his game. It doesn't matter that D.J. Moore isn't better than A.J. Brown. What matters is:

+ Moore is vastly better than any WR they had on their roster last season and is a legitimate go-to guy.
+ Claypool and Mooney are both credible as a #2 or #3.
+ They improved their offensive line noticeably. Braxton Jones is a very good LT and they just spent a Top-10 pick on a really good RT prospect.
+ RB talent is deeper
+ TE talent is deeper
+ 2nd year of the offense, which is typically a plus for QBs.
+ The likelihood that the Bears pass play percentage will be at 43% is basically zero.

This is a team that made moves to set the offense up to pass more and be more dynamic. It would not shock me if Fields is once again a Top-5 QB and even finishes in the Top 3 range.