What are people doing with Justin Fields, buying or selling?

[wickerkat1212]

It's a make or break year for Fields. Same as it was for Hurts last year. The team has pushed some capital out a year, has multiple firsts. If Fields looked the same as he did last year, he's in real trouble. He needs to improve a lot as a passer. The Bears brass was smart, in the sense that they have provided a situation where that improvement can be facilitated. If it doesn't happen, Fields won't be a starter for long. If it does, he's safer. If he has a Hurts like ascension, he's likely to get an 2nd contract to be a starter, though that isn't likely, as there really isn't as much working there as they had going in Philly.

It makes sense for the Bears to see. There really wasn't an elite QB prospect in this class, so they pushed a first into the next year, where there is one, maybe 2. This is the year. If Fields doesn't improve, the Bears likely have a top 10 pick of their own, plus whatever the Panthers one yields, and they can likely get a QB to replace him.

From a Dynasty perspective, I can't justify taking Fields in the first, knowing this likely scenario. I'd much rather move up into the top 6 and land a more stable QB with my first round startup pick.

Agree. And for as much as I've said I like Fields, in a start-up I'd probably avoid him in the first, too.

[wickerkat1212]

We’ve seen elite QBs turn chicken**** into chicken salad before. That’s not a fair comparison for Fields though since he has a way to go before he even qualifies to be labeled a mediocre passer. People want to put the blame everywhere but with Fields, but he looked like a big part of the problem. The knock on him coming out was his slow processing, which is the kiss of death for a pro QB. That showed in his play with how long it took him to get the ball out and where he threw the ball when he finally did throw. His coaches appeared to simply not trust him throwing the ball much.

I agree wholly with FF - this is his make-or-break year. If he does not improve significantly as a passer CHI will be replacing him in the 2024 draft. His passing game may have a fatal flaw that he just can’t overcome.

I agree. He really needs to develop his anticipation, reads, and accuracy. But at the same time, I'm not sure how you do that with:

- Darnell Mooney
- Equinameous St. Brown
- Dante Pettis
- Byron Pringle
- Cole Kmet

These are a lot of players who wouldn't even be in a typical WR/pass catcher rotation. It's no wonder the team just told him to start running. Would you trust him throwing to those players? Nobody above can win a matchup reliably.

^This WR room needs to be burned into everyone's memory when talking about Fields' 2022 passing stats. Also consider that this room struggled heavily with injuries all year, making it even worse. If you factor in availability (calculated as WR snap count/Fields' total snap count), his WR room actually looks more like:

2/3rds of Darnell Mooney
1/5th of Chase Claypool
3/5ths of Equinameous St. Brown
Fill in the gaps created above with a trio of guys who will likely never sniff an NFL roster again in Pettis, Pringle, and Harry.

Add in a patchwork offensive line (3/5 starters have already been replaced) and the worst defense in football...

This.

[murphysxm]

Fields doesnt have to become Jalen Hurts to be a great dynasty asset. He just has to be better than, let's say, Garoppolo level to keep a starting gig and I think he can do that. If he takes that Jalen Hurts leap, even better. But as long as he remains an average NFL QB he will remain an elite fantasy QB.

I just took him in a keeper league and happy to have him as my qb.

Spot on.

There's some overthinking going on with rushing QBs. As long as you are very good to elite in providing rushing value, you have a high floor at the position. Being an average passer sustains that and will give you some big time blowup weeks.

I’m not sure anyone is arguing with these two posts. I think most agree he is elite for fantasy right now. My concern is that he hasn’t even been an “average passer” yet. He still has to become that, not remain that. Maybe these off-season changes help that, maybe they won’t. Time will tell.

I agree that we all see his fantasy appeal that his legs create. I just don't believe NFL teams are going to continue starting a QB that can't effectively pass the football. Better WR will not improve his accuracy or his ability to read the field. That is internal improvement. It can and has happened, but giving him better weapons will not make it happen.

[frerichs5]

I agree. He really needs to develop his anticipation, reads, and accuracy. But at the same time, I'm not sure how you do that with:

- Darnell Mooney
- Equinameous St. Brown
- Dante Pettis
- Byron Pringle
- Cole Kmet

These are a lot of players who wouldn't even be in a typical WR/pass catcher rotation. It's no wonder the team just told him to start running. Would you trust him throwing to those players? Nobody above can win a matchup reliably.

Daniel Jones put up an extra 1000 yards with Darius Slayton, Richie James, and Isaiah Hodgins as the top 3 WRs for the team. You could argue Daboll scheme I guess, but neither Fields or Jones had much help.

This got me wondering what people want to see out of Fields this year. Say he bumps his passing up from 2200 yards to 3200 yards (would be good for 15th in 2022…seems reasonable).

If his rushing drops due to more passing, we are looking at stats not too far off from Daniel Jones. No one is considering him anywhere near Fields to my knowledge.

[oneson9192]

I'd never use college stats to prove that an NFL player is good or bad, especially when they've been in the league for 2+ years, but as an Ohio State fan, I feel the need to remind everyone that Fields was not primarily a runner in college. Heck, he wasn't even primarily a runner until week 7 of last year. Until then, he has always done his best work passing the football. Check out this comparison of the best single college season for some of the "running QBs" to be drafted since 2017.



This is NOT a comparison of players' talent. I'm not making an argument that Fields is better than these guys. I understand that supporting casts and situations vary. DON'T be comparing yardage/TD totals between players.

This IS a comparison of where each player did their best work in college. DO compare the ratio of passing/rushing production between players.

Takeaway: Justin Fields was a 2-time Heisman finalist on the back of his passing in college. Yes, he has proven to be an electric runner in the last half of 2022, but there seems to be some misconception that his insane rushing ability has been masking a terrible passer throughout his career and that the gimmick is going to expire soon. When you take a step back and look at his entire career, I think that misconception falls apart.

Bonus Fact: Trevor Lawrence ran for more yards and only 1 less TD in 2019!

[wickerkat1212]

I'd never use college stats to prove that an NFL player is good or bad, especially when they've been in the league for 2+ years, but as an Ohio State fan, I feel the need to remind everyone that Fields was not primarily a runner in college. Heck, he wasn't even primarily a runner until week 7 of last year. Until then, he has always done his best work passing the football. Check out this comparison of the best single college season for some of the "running QBs" to be drafted since 2017.



This is NOT a comparison of players' talent. I'm not making an argument that Fields is better than these guys. I understand that supporting casts and situations vary. DON'T be comparing yardage/TD totals between players.

This IS a comparison of where each player did their best work in college. DO compare the ratio of passing/rushing production between players.

Takeaway: Justin Fields was a 2-time Heisman finalist on the back of his passing in college. Yes, he has proven to be an electric runner in the last half of 2022, but there seems to be some misconception that his insane rushing ability has been masking a terrible passer throughout his career and that the gimmick is going to expire soon. When you take a step back and look at his entire career, I think that misconception falls apart.

Bonus Fact: Trevor Lawrence ran for more yards and only 1 less TD in 2019!

Yep. This is what I've been saying. He was a good passer in college, not a runner. He has always had some issues processing, that's for sure, but he is not a BAD passer. In fact, I saw stats saying he has one of the best deep balls in the NFL. And that's what DJM does. Same reason we got Velus and Scott.

I am hoping his season is something like:

3,000+ passing yards
24 tds
12 ints
<1000 rushing yards
6 rushing tds
passing accuracy of 65%+

That would be a step in the right direction

Here is his 22

2,242
17 tds
11 ints
1143 rushing
8 rushing tds
60% accuracy

[oneson9192]

I agree. He really needs to develop his anticipation, reads, and accuracy. But at the same time, I'm not sure how you do that with:

- Darnell Mooney
- Equinameous St. Brown
- Dante Pettis
- Byron Pringle
- Cole Kmet

These are a lot of players who wouldn't even be in a typical WR/pass catcher rotation. It's no wonder the team just told him to start running. Would you trust him throwing to those players? Nobody above can win a matchup reliably.

Daniel Jones put up an extra 1000 yards with Darius Slayton, Richie James, and Isaiah Hodgins as the top 3 WRs for the team. You could argue Daboll scheme I guess, but neither Fields or Jones had much help.

This got me wondering what people want to see out of Fields this year. Say he bumps his passing up from 2200 yards to 3200 yards (would be good for 15th in 2022…seems reasonable).

If his rushing drops due to more passing, we are looking at stats not too far off from Daniel Jones. No one is considering him anywhere near Fields to my knowledge.

Agreed that Daniel Jones performed admirably given his weapons. When doing a comparison of these 2 players, however, keep in mind:

- Yes, Jones threw for 1k more yards (43% more than Fields)
But also:
- Jones played 1 more game
- Jones played 123 more snaps (13% more)
- Jones threw 154 more passes (48% more)
- Jones threw 2 less TDs
- Jones is 2 years older and entering his 5th season

I think it's fair to say that both players did about as well as they could given terrible situations, and both will be under heavy scrutiny this year.

Also, given that most of the Field's handwringing involves whether Fields will be able to keep the job with only marginal improvement in 2023, it seems worth noting that Daniel Jones' 2022 season was good enough to land him a 4 year deal...

[FantasyFreak]

I agree. He really needs to develop his anticipation, reads, and accuracy. But at the same time, I'm not sure how you do that with:

- Darnell Mooney
- Equinameous St. Brown
- Dante Pettis
- Byron Pringle
- Cole Kmet

These are a lot of players who wouldn't even be in a typical WR/pass catcher rotation. It's no wonder the team just told him to start running. Would you trust him throwing to those players? Nobody above can win a matchup reliably.

Daniel Jones put up an extra 1000 yards with Darius Slayton, Richie James, and Isaiah Hodgins as the top 3 WRs for the team. You could argue Daboll scheme I guess, but neither Fields or Jones had much help.

This got me wondering what people want to see out of Fields this year. Say he bumps his passing up from 2200 yards to 3200 yards (would be good for 15th in 2022…seems reasonable).

If his rushing drops due to more passing, we are looking at stats not too far off from Daniel Jones. No one is considering him anywhere near Fields to my knowledge.

Agreed that Daniel Jones performed admirably given his weapons. When doing a comparison of these 2 players, however, keep in mind:

- Yes, Jones threw for 1k more yards (43% more than Fields)
But also:
- Jones played 1 more game
- Jones played 123 more snaps (13% more)
- Jones threw 154 more passes (48% more)
- Jones threw 2 less TDs
- Jones is 2 years older and entering his 5th season

I think it's fair to say that both players did about as well as they could given terrible situations, and both will be under heavy scrutiny this year.

Also, given that most of the Field's handwringing involves whether Fields will be able to keep the job with only marginal improvement in 2023, it seems worth noting that Daniel Jones' 2022 season was good enough to land him a 4 year deal...

Jones would also have become a FA, the Bears would not likely extend Fields in the same situation. There's an out on Jones after 2 years, and he's almost free to cut after 3, as well FWIW, so while it's 4 years, like so many contracts, it's not really.

[Cameron Giles]

Daniel Jones put up an extra 1000 yards with Darius Slayton, Richie James, and Isaiah Hodgins as the top 3 WRs for the team. You could argue Daboll scheme I guess, but neither Fields or Jones had much help.

This got me wondering what people want to see out of Fields this year. Say he bumps his passing up from 2200 yards to 3200 yards (would be good for 15th in 2022…seems reasonable).

If his rushing drops due to more passing, we are looking at stats not too far off from Daniel Jones. No one is considering him anywhere near Fields to my knowledge.

Jones also averaged the lowest passing yards/gm number of his career because of the lack of weapons.

The difference in yardage doesn't mean anything:

Jones - 29.5 att/gm, 6.8 y/a, 10.1 y/comp
Fields - 21.2 att/gm, 7.1 y/a, 11.7 y/comp

Basically, if Fields would've thrown a little more, he would've more or less matched Jones passing numbers on the season.

You just can't expect every QB to make bottom of the bag WRs relevant. There are only a few players in league history who are capable of actually doing that on a regular basis, and they're all-time greats.

[murphysxm]

Justin Fields only great college season he played with what 15 NFL players? Had weapons named Olave, Dobbins, Wilson, KJ Hill and this is from memory, I am sure I am missing some. He also had a DOMINANT line and defense. Funny how JSN stinks because some of these guys made things easy on him..... Fields has not proven he is a NFL level passer of the football, to say otherwise is crazy to me. He MAY get there, he will be awesome if he does. That doesn't mean he will.

[Bronco Billy]

Daniel Jones put up an extra 1000 yards with Darius Slayton, Richie James, and Isaiah Hodgins as the top 3 WRs for the team. You could argue Daboll scheme I guess, but neither Fields or Jones had much help.

This got me wondering what people want to see out of Fields this year. Say he bumps his passing up from 2200 yards to 3200 yards (would be good for 15th in 2022…seems reasonable).

If his rushing drops due to more passing, we are looking at stats not too far off from Daniel Jones. No one is considering him anywhere near Fields to my knowledge.

Jones also averaged the lowest passing yards/gm number of his career because of the lack of weapons.

The difference in yardage doesn't mean anything:

Jones - 29.5 att/gm, 6.8 y/a, 10.1 y/comp
Fields - 21.2 att/gm, 7.1 y/a, 11.7 y/comp

Basically, if Fields would've thrown a little more, he would've more or less matched Jones passing numbers on the season.

You just can't expect every QB to make bottom of the bag WRs relevant. There are only a few players in league history who are capable of actually doing that on a regular basis, and they're all-time greats.

A little more? That’s a 39% increase in pass attempts. If you’re looking at matching passing yards, given Fields’ comp pct compared to Jones’, Fields would have to throw 42% more passes. That’s a huge jump.

[Bronco Billy]

Justin Fields only great college season he played with what 15 NFL players? Had weapons named Olave, Dobbins, Wilson, KJ Hill and this is from memory, I am sure I am missing some. He also had a DOMINANT line and defense. Funny how JSN stinks because some of these guys made things easy on him..... Fields has not proven he is a NFL level passer of the football, to say otherwise is crazy to me. He MAY get there, he will be awesome if he does. That doesn't mean he will.

Who is saying that?

[oneson9192]

Justin Fields only great college season he played with what 15 NFL players? Had weapons named Olave, Dobbins, Wilson, KJ Hill and this is from memory, I am sure I am missing some. He also had a DOMINANT line and defense. Funny how JSN stinks because some of these guys made things easy on him..... Fields has not proven he is a NFL level passer of the football, to say otherwise is crazy to me. He MAY get there, he will be awesome if he does. That doesn't mean he will.

Who is saying that?

Yeah I don't know who he's replying to here. I was about as clear as possible that I wasn't saying his college stats prove his NFL competence. Only that he was not primarily a runner in college.

[murphysxm]

Justin Fields only great college season he played with what 15 NFL players? Had weapons named Olave, Dobbins, Wilson, KJ Hill and this is from memory, I am sure I am missing some. He also had a DOMINANT line and defense. Funny how JSN stinks because some of these guys made things easy on him..... Fields has not proven he is a NFL level passer of the football, to say otherwise is crazy to me. He MAY get there, he will be awesome if he does. That doesn't mean he will.

Who is saying that?

Yeah I don't know who he's replying to here. I was about as clear as possible that I wasn't saying his college stats prove his NFL competence. Only that he was not primarily a runner in college.

Ones, I am blending threads. not a comment to you at all

[Cameron Giles]

A little more? That’s a 39% increase in pass attempts. If you’re looking at matching passing yards, given Fields’ comp pct compared to Jones’, Fields would have to throw 42% more passes. That’s a huge jump.

The percentage increase is only large because Fields didn't throw much. A 20% increase in passes for example would be an extra 4 attempts a game. A 39% increase is an extra 8 attempts. That's not difficult to do, especially when you consider that the Bears passed on a league low 43.81% of their offense. No team in the last 14 years has had a lower pass play percentage than last year's Bears team.

The Bears averaged 22.2 pass attempts last season. If they even added 8 attempts to that, they're still not even league average. Essentially, if the Bears even had a slightly below average to average NFL passing attempt offense, 200 yards/gm would not be difficult to obtain. It's only a "huge jump" because you're starting with a dirt low number, but in actuality it's just about regressing to normality.