Quentin Johnston is the new MikeEvans/

[frerichs5]

I don’t think that thinking of him as an early-mid 2nd is really dropping him that much, if at all (if we are talking SF leagues). Was he a back half 1st round pick this year? Yes. But it was also a year no one seemed excited about that part of the draft and many were trying to trade out. He was picked in a lot of cases because there was no one else worthy of being picked there either IMO. So yes, this year he was a 1st. Other years….maybe, maybe not.

[CGW]

I don’t think that thinking of him as an early-mid 2nd is really dropping him that much, if at all (if we are talking SF leagues). Was he a back half 1st round pick this year? Yes. But it was also a year no one seemed excited about that part of the draft and many were trying to trade out. He was picked in a lot of cases because there was no one else worthy of being picked there either IMO. So yes, this year he was a 1st. Other years….maybe, maybe not.

I looked back at my 6 drafts and see that QJ was taken ahead of Flowers in all 6 drafts. Surprising to me, but it explains why I have so much Flowers and no QJ.

[Jigga94]

I don’t think that thinking of him as an early-mid 2nd is really dropping him that much, if at all (if we are talking SF leagues). Was he a back half 1st round pick this year? Yes. But it was also a year no one seemed excited about that part of the draft and many were trying to trade out. He was picked in a lot of cases because there was no one else worthy of being picked there either IMO. So yes, this year he was a 1st. Other years….maybe, maybe not.

I looked back at my 6 drafts and see that QJ was taken ahead of Flowers in all 6 drafts. Surprising to me, but it explains why I have so much Flowers and no QJ.

Yup, a lot of Flowers. JSN or Addison if I picked high enough. QJ never fell late enough in the 1st for me.

Dropping him in ranks isn't necessarily about him, but more about guys like Laporta looking really good. No way I'd take QJ over Laporta if given the choice now, but back in May? I would've taken QJ.

People don't want to wait until year 3 for a breakout. And in these passing offenses that feature 2 or 3 guys, I think it's reasonable to expect most early picks to do something of note early on. Giving QJ a pass for now because of Keenan and Williams though.

Dynasty is being treated more and more like the stock market. Buy low, sell high. I may have to really start projecting year 1 for some of these guys and incorporating that into my rookie ranks. Not necessarily Situation > Talent. But if you know the situation isn't going to be there year 1, the rookies value likely drops

[Dynasty DeLorean]

Dropping him to 2nd round value after 2 games is hilarious.

rookie production is really important and he’s currently the wr4 on the team. Things could change as that team has been losing, they could shake things up or injuries could happen. But the most likely outcome is he doesn’t have a very good rookie year. And that’s not good.

Not all rookies are created equal. Sometimes it takes time for them to get it, especially the ones that aren't polished when they enter the nfl. 3rd year wr isn't a thing anymore?

No, not really. Assuming health and play all 17 games, the odds plummet for a rookie wr that doesn’t put up around 800 yards their rookie year. Not to say it can’t happen, it just becomes very unlikely.

[SteveMaddensShoes]

I don’t think that thinking of him as an early-mid 2nd is really dropping him that much, if at all (if we are talking SF leagues). Was he a back half 1st round pick this year? Yes. But it was also a year no one seemed excited about that part of the draft and many were trying to trade out. He was picked in a lot of cases because there was no one else worthy of being picked there either IMO. So yes, this year he was a 1st. Other years….maybe, maybe not.

I looked back at my 6 drafts and see that QJ was taken ahead of Flowers in all 6 drafts. Surprising to me, but it explains why I have so much Flowers and no QJ.

Yup, a lot of Flowers. JSN or Addison if I picked high enough. QJ never fell late enough in the 1st for me.

Dropping him in ranks isn't necessarily about him, but more about guys like Laporta looking really good. No way I'd take QJ over Laporta if given the choice now, but back in May? I would've taken QJ.

People don't want to wait until year 3 for a breakout. And in these passing offenses that feature 2 or 3 guys, I think it's reasonable to expect most early picks to do something of note early on. Giving QJ a pass for now because of Keenan and Williams though.

Dynasty is being treated more and more like the stock market. Buy low, sell high. I may have to really start projecting year 1 for some of these guys and incorporating that into my rookie ranks. Not necessarily Situation > Talent. But if you know the situation isn't going to be there year 1, the rookies value likely drops

What has triggered this stock market emphasis? My thoughts are -
1. There are so many people playing but not actual talent scouts or even aware of what it means to be able to judge a player/position correctly(this is me and why I’m more of a stock market player myself)
2. So due to reason 1, players like myself utilize actual talent evaluators. I find them here on this forum, Matt Harmon, Mike Havens, etc. no one is perfect though and it allows me to feel like I’m doing some sort of judgement/management of my team instead of just plugging in an algorithm.
3. Because of 2, social media is flooded with everyone trying to get a piece of the “I know what I’m talking about/listen to me/” pie. Some donit in good faith, some just hype and sell fear. Most don’t know sh*t.
4. Fear sells as well as anything. So thousands of “experts” and influencers selling fear to millions of managers cause massive market changes beyond the talent. Song uys like myself who can’t tell if Drake London is worse than Chris Olave or just in a bad situation offer he opportunity for influencers to drop stats, post graphs, make comparisons, and on and on to sell someone. It takes awhile to realize it’s mainly noise and you can make your own decisions and it’s probably mainly luck and intrinsic reasons a player works out or not before easing off the itchy trigger trade finger, not buying into the fear and settling down
4. I don’t settle down though. I see everyone else buying into all the fear and I fuel the stock market phenomenon by buying and selling similar talents that are up or down.

Totally agree with poster above who said taking rookie situations into account might be smart from a value perspective but not a talent/long term perspective. Just look at Addison. No way he gets this hype in a worse situation. And now any manager that can look forward can see Cousins leaving, maybe a rookie coming in, lower volume, less production, etc. so they sell Addison now to buy JSN’s talent for next year and rinse and repeat. Even if you were a great talent evaluator it would be a mistake to pass on selling hype and buying low.

[Anteaters]

Assuming health and play all 17 games, the odds plummet for a rookie wr that doesn’t put up around 800 yards their rookie year. Not to say it can’t happen, it just becomes very unlikely.

So you're saying there's a chance?

I respect your research into this and think it's reasonable to stand by that 800yd marker as being signficant.

If QJ starts slow with 250 yards in his first seven games, but finishes strong with 600 yards in his final ten games, he'll hit that marker of being likelier to improve to a high value fantasy WR. I feel it's very possible he'll get there. We'll find out in sixteen more games.

[ButtFumbleCity]

Assuming health and play all 17 games, the odds plummet for a rookie wr that doesn’t put up around 800 yards their rookie year. Not to say it can’t happen, it just becomes very unlikely.

So you're saying there's a chance?

I respect your research into this and think it's reasonable to stand by that 800yd marker as being signficant.

If QJ starts slow with 250 yards in his first seven games, but finishes strong with 600 yards in his final ten games, he'll hit that marker of being likelier to improve to a high value fantasy WR. I feel it's very possible he'll get there. We'll find out in sixteen more games.

I think we find out tomorrow when he goes for 780 and 7 TDs.

[Dynasty DeLorean]

Assuming health and play all 17 games, the odds plummet for a rookie wr that doesn’t put up around 800 yards their rookie year. Not to say it can’t happen, it just becomes very unlikely.

So you're saying there's a chance?

I respect your research into this and think it's reasonable to stand by that 800yd marker as being signficant.

If QJ starts slow with 250 yards in his first seven games, but finishes strong with 600 yards in his final ten games, he'll hit that marker of being likelier to improve to a high value fantasy WR. I feel it's very possible he'll get there. We'll find out in sixteen more games.

There’s a chance but it’s 10% or less. I think I had gone back to see if there was any reason why certain studs had poor rookie years, and if I’m remembering right it was mostly because the qb/offense was abysmal, and/or there were several other target hogs on the offense. I’m not 100% on that but I think that was the reason for several anyway. So you do have a built in excuse with Keenan and Mike Willy there, but even so it’s still not a good sign whatever the reason.

In theory, even if they don’t hit the ypg mark, if they are playing amazing the PFF receiving grade should reflect that. 80+ pff receiving grade is also an excellent sign

[Shcritters]

Mike Williams out for the year... so QJ now has his opportunity. Its now or never - defenses won't let Keenan Allen get 20 targets per game like the horrendous Vikes just did (Vikes fan here)...

Opportunity's there, we're about to find out if this guy has 'it'.

[Kurtrambis1]

Terrible news for Mike Williams. QJ going to be forced into action now, but I think it will be a combination of Palmer, QJ, and Everett taking William's targets.

QJ on paper is the most explosive and it would be fun to see it all go to him.

[Lumps]

Brutal for Williams. He’s been snake bitten. Don’t like this for my Herbert share either.

Haven’t been a fan of Johnston but here is his chance.

[Prison_Mike]

I've got a year-one punt team where I landed Ford late in the startup and Kyren on waivers. Chubb owner is down to starting Charbonnet and Gus @ RB. Would y'all send Ford/Kyren for QJ?

(I'd rather have his 1st but he doesn't seem interested in that)

[Shcritters]

I've got a year-one punt team where I landed Ford late in the startup and Kyren on waivers. Chubb owner is down to starting Charbonnet and Gus @ RB. Would y'all send Ford/Kyren for QJ?

(I'd rather have his 1st but he doesn't seem interested in that)

I think we know what Ford and Kyren are - replaceable level talent. The jury's out on QJ. If I was rebuilding I'd do that trade.

[BabyChark23]

I've got a year-one punt team where I landed Ford late in the startup and Kyren on waivers. Chubb owner is down to starting Charbonnet and Gus @ RB. Would y'all send Ford/Kyren for QJ?

(I'd rather have his 1st but he doesn't seem interested in that)

I’d shop those two around. I think you can do better.

[Prison_Mike]

I've got a year-one punt team where I landed Ford late in the startup and Kyren on waivers. Chubb owner is down to starting Charbonnet and Gus @ RB. Would y'all send Ford/Kyren for QJ?

(I'd rather have his 1st but he doesn't seem interested in that)

I’d shop those two around. I think you can do better.

Yeah, I will. No one wanted to pay a 1st for either last week. Ford's day should help, especially considering I was expecting a dud. We'll see how Kyren does tonight, but I expect his value to go up. I'll stay patient