Value difference from tier 2 -> tier 3

[trc]

Couldn't find a lot of specific discussions around this topic.

The consensus has become (at least my perception), that there is a clear tier break after 1.03 in 1QB and 1.06 in SF.

I'm a bit curious in what is the actual value difference between 1.03 and 1.04 likewise between 1.06 and 1.07.

I know there is 2 types of value, fair value and the value an owner would actually want to either move out or up.
KTC suggest an early 3rd would bridge the gap, but to me that is to light.

I'm thinking that if you want to get the deal done, you would in most cases need to add an early/mid 2nd to 1.04 - while a late 2nd is closer to fair value.

What do you think?

[tstafford]

You may be right about the consensus, but I have it differently on my board. For 1Q PPR:
Tier One: Bijan
Tier Two: Gibbs
Tier Three: JSN/Addy

I guess I am higher on Addy than most. I would seriously consider taking him over JSN if I was a contender and could benefit from '23 production. He is poised to has the best rookie season of the bunch. I've commented on this elsewhere.

Anyway - to answer your question, for me there is a sizable value drop after Tier Three. And a very big one after QJ comes off at 1.05. It says a lot that people are wiling to consider Dalton Kincaid in that range. It shows fairly clearly that the draft is mediocre and that it's not crazy to take a TE or even a QB (AR) at that point. I'm lookin to move out of the draft and would take any 2024 1st or better yet a depressed asset (Burks, JAMO, London) in return.

[Anteaters]

Couldn't find a lot of specific discussions around this topic.

The consensus has become (at least my perception), that there is a clear tier break after 1.03 in 1QB and 1.06 in SF.

I'm a bit curious in what is the actual value difference between 1.03 and 1.04 likewise between 1.06 and 1.07.

I know there is 2 types of value, fair value and the value an owner would actually want to either move out or up.
KTC suggest an early 3rd would bridge the gap, but to me that is to light.

I'm thinking that if you want to get the deal done, you would in most cases need to add an early/mid 2nd to 1.04 - while a late 2nd is closer to fair value.

What do you think?

Unless this is a league where 3rd round picks regularly turn out to be very good fantasy players or at least guys you'd still want to roster by their third seasons, a 3rd round pick would be worthless in this sort of trade up. I would not trade down from 1.11 to 1.12 for a random 3rd.

Personally, it would take an early 2nd for me to flip 1st round picks; an early 3rd to flip 2nd round picks.

Also, I would mostly ignore consensus opinion of tier breaks. I'd simply evaluate the players according to my desire to draft them, then figure out what I'd pay to move up -- or what it would take in additional receiving value to trade down. I'd completely discount the other trader's opinion of my spot or his spot being in different consensus tiers. As TStafford said, different managers are going to have different valuations anyway, so you have to go with your own opinion.

[CGW]

I've had three drafts now and it's cost between a 2nd and two 2nds to move up a spot or two in the early to mid first. Sometimes that has seemed cheap. For example, someone traded the 1.02 (Gibbs) for the 1.06 and 2.04. I'd make that move all day.

[trc]

Couldn't find a lot of specific discussions around this topic.

The consensus has become (at least my perception), that there is a clear tier break after 1.03 in 1QB and 1.06 in SF.

I'm a bit curious in what is the actual value difference between 1.03 and 1.04 likewise between 1.06 and 1.07.

I know there is 2 types of value, fair value and the value an owner would actually want to either move out or up.
KTC suggest an early 3rd would bridge the gap, but to me that is to light.

I'm thinking that if you want to get the deal done, you would in most cases need to add an early/mid 2nd to 1.04 - while a late 2nd is closer to fair value.

What do you think?

Unless this is a league where 3rd round picks regularly turn out to be very good fantasy players or at least guys you'd still want to roster by their third seasons, a 3rd round pick would be worthless in this sort of trade up. I would not trade down from 1.11 to 1.12 for a random 3rd.

Personally, it would take an early 2nd for me to flip 1st round picks; an early 3rd to flip 2nd round picks.

Also, I would mostly ignore consensus opinion of tier breaks. I'd simply evaluate the players according to my desire to draft them, then figure out what I'd pay to move up -- or what it would take in additional receiving value to trade down. I'd completely discount the other trader's opinion of my spot or his spot being in different consensus tiers. As TStafford said, different managers are going to have different valuations anyway, so you have to go with your own opinion.

Thanks for the contribution.

To the bolded, can you elabroate a bit? To me it would be highly beneficial to know/understand, as I prefer to hit the sweet spot where the other owner is about to hit accept, but not a smash-hit-accept kinda deal. I know it is impossible to do every time, but that is at least the goal.

[trc]

I've had three drafts now and it's cost between a 2nd and two 2nds to move up a spot or two in the early to mid first. Sometimes that has seemed cheap. For example, someone traded the 1.02 (Gibbs) for the 1.06 and 2.04. I'd make that move all day.

Fully agree on the bolded!

Thx for the contribution.

[trc]

You may be right about the consensus, but I have it differently on my board. For 1Q PPR:
Tier One: Bijan
Tier Two: Gibbs
Tier Three: JSN/Addy

I guess I am higher on Addy than most. I would seriously consider taking him over JSN if I was a contender and could benefit from '23 production. He is poised to has the best rookie season of the bunch. I've commented on this elsewhere.

Anyway - to answer your question, for me there is a sizable value drop after Tier Three. And a very big one after QJ comes off at 1.05. It says a lot that people are wiling to consider Dalton Kincaid in that range. It shows fairly clearly that the draft is mediocre and that it's not crazy to take a TE or even a QB (AR) at that point. I'm lookin to move out of the draft and would take any 2024 1st or better yet a depressed asset (Burks, JAMO, London) in return.

If you had to put a value on it, what would it be? 1.05 vs 1.04 that is.
Any 24 1st?

[sloth8u]

I'm not sure if your moving up to get your guy or back to try to gain some value. Either way, owners should be waiting to see who's on the board when the pick is up during this time of the year unless it's a smash accept.

[Anteaters]

Couldn't find a lot of specific discussions around this topic.

The consensus has become (at least my perception), that there is a clear tier break after 1.03 in 1QB and 1.06 in SF.

I'm a bit curious in what is the actual value difference between 1.03 and 1.04 likewise between 1.06 and 1.07.

I know there is 2 types of value, fair value and the value an owner would actually want to either move out or up.
KTC suggest an early 3rd would bridge the gap, but to me that is to light.

I'm thinking that if you want to get the deal done, you would in most cases need to add an early/mid 2nd to 1.04 - while a late 2nd is closer to fair value.

What do you think?

Unless this is a league where 3rd round picks regularly turn out to be very good fantasy players or at least guys you'd still want to roster by their third seasons, a 3rd round pick would be worthless in this sort of trade up. I would not trade down from 1.11 to 1.12 for a random 3rd.

Personally, it would take an early 2nd for me to flip 1st round picks; an early 3rd to flip 2nd round picks.

Also, I would mostly ignore consensus opinion of tier breaks. I'd simply evaluate the players according to my desire to draft them, then figure out what I'd pay to move up -- or what it would take in additional receiving value to trade down. I'd completely discount the other trader's opinion of my spot or his spot being in different consensus tiers. As TStafford said, different managers are going to have different valuations anyway, so you have to go with your own opinion.

Thanks for the contribution.

To the bolded, can you elabroate a bit? To me it would be highly beneficial to know/understand, as I prefer to hit the sweet spot where the other owner is about to hit accept, but not a smash-hit-accept kinda deal. I know it is impossible to do every time, but that is at least the goal.

Let's say you hold 1.04 and the other guy holds 1.06. You may think there is a tier break after 1.04 and decide you should receive a +5 value asset. The other guy may think there is no second tier break until 1.07, and he is simply moving up to get a player at a position he wants.

Because the other guy doesn't think there is a tier break, he probably will not want to pay what you want to make the swap. If you believe the two picks are in two different tiers, you will want more to make the swap.

The other guy will then try to convince you it's not a tier difference and you should not ask as much to swap. That's the point I was talking about "completely discount the other trader's valuation." Do not use his valuation of tiers to dictate how you feel about the tiers. If you believe there is a significant difference, don't let him convince you there is no difference and you should accept less to swap.

[MacDaddy123]

I'd say the difference is at least a 2nd round pick or equivalent.
In one of my SF leagues I was fortunate enough to be able to trade Pacheco + 1.10 to get to the 1.06.

I felt very fortunate to be able to get to the 1.06 tier.

[tstafford]

If you had to put a value on it, what would it be? 1.05 vs 1.04 that is.
Any 24 1st?

Seems slightly rich. I'd like to get it done for a high '23 2nd. But it's close.

[Ice]

This draft

Moving off a top 3 pick in a 1 QB league should cost good first this year and next at minimum.

Maybe a bit less in a 2 QB format.

If you own one of those picks you will get a Plus Player so it’s unwise selling for magic beans next year.

[ThirdWW]

For team below, I have the 1.4. I’d easily give up either second I own to get into the top 3, but debating back and forth on if I’m willing to give up both. More than likely I probably would, although part of me is willing to roll the dice on Addison. I would not trade any future first to do so. Just the perspective of someone who’s actively trying to trade up (our league gets quite in the off-season).

[lukkynumber13]

I own 1.03 and am trying desperately to get a proven vet for it

If I can’t, sure I’ll take JSN but I’m not sold on him

[FantasyFreak]

I own 1.03 and am trying desperately to get a proven vet for it

If I can’t, sure I’ll take JSN but I’m not sold on him

He's my WR1, but he went in the back half of the first, and all the first round WR's got basically the same capital. He's kind of been put in this tier of his own, and it remains to be seen if that should be the case. I could very easily see Addison ending up the better pick.

I know I'm on an island, but I am taking Kendre Miller over Flowers and QJ, in a vacuum. I know you can move back and get him, just saying that's how I value him. I never had to pick him ahead of those guys, luckily the board was very predictable, this years class more than any I have seen in a while, was so easy predict the first 10 picks in a SF/TE premium draft.