Achane>Gibbs

[austing]

Been thinking the past couple days that there’s a good chance that in a couple years looking back we will see that spending the 1.09 (at most) on achane gave you most of the same production as spending the 1.02 on gibbs.

Both have short-term subpar running mates who will steal goal line duties although both teams are likely to draft replacements for the 1bs down the road. Both are on dynamic up and coming offenses. Both are not 250 touch guys at 5’8 185 and 5’10’ 199.

I just think that after factoring in cost, there is no reason to get Gibbs when you can trade back and get comparable levels of production and pick up another asset in the process given the draft hype for Gibbs.

After 1.01 there is just nothing concrete in this draft. Except Johnston, he will be a stud.

[FantasyFreak]

Johnston is has a high bust potential IMO. He's either going to be really good, or a bust, I am not a fan of his game as it stands. In terms of Achane, I thought he had more play strength than Gibbs. I wouldn't take him over Gibbs straight up, but the lower cost intrigues me, for sure. Gibbs will just be in the league for a long time, barring injuries, due to his draft capital. He's really insulated for a longer career, based on being taken at 12, it just tends to be the way the NFL is. First round picks get chance after chance, after chance.

[j4pac]

Achanes size scares me. I don’t think he had the frame to get bigger.

[Ice]

My take is it is more likely Gibbs passes Bijan as the best RB in this class than Achane being close to Gibbs.

The Lion's may have had visions of Barry Sanders given Gibbs is an inch taller, the same weight, and slightly faster but regardless, he wasn't falling much past 12 in this draft.

This is an extremely explosive player and his game will translate in the NFL.

[Lumps]

My take is it is more likely Gibbs passes Bijan as the best RB in this class than Achane being close to Gibbs.

The Lion's may have had visions of Barry Sanders given Gibbs is an inch taller, the same weight, and slightly faster but regardless, he wasn't falling much past 12 in this draft.

This is an extremely explosive player and his game will translate in the NFL.

[M-Dub]

Size is definitely a concern for both guys, but at least Miami has displayed a willingness to give undersized backs like Mostert, Gaskin and even Ahmed a workhorse role. That was the one landing spot that would’ve made me comfortable drafting Gibbs as high as he was being mocked, so when Achane landed there instead, I was immediate intrigued by him as an “arbitrage” to Gibbs. Detroit, meanwhile, has not only given us zero indication that they’re willing to put a small back into a workhorse role, but they’ve actively avoided it. They already had a bigger, better version of Gibbs on their roster and they barely fed him 10-12 touches/game.

Also, I don’t think the touch competition is even remotely comparable. I’m no David Montgomery stan by any stretch, and I think the Lions made another stupid move by overpaying him rather than just re-signing locker room leader and fan favorite Jamaal Williams at a considerable discount. But he’s still a proven workhorse back, and there’s nobody on the Dolphins’ roster anywhere close to his ability.

[Jigga94]

Size is definitely a concern for both guys, but at least Miami has displayed a willingness to give undersized backs like Mostert, Gaskin and even Ahmed a workhorse role. That was the one landing spot that would’ve made me comfortable drafting Gibbs as high as he was being mocked, so when Achane landed there instead, I was immediate intrigued by him as an “arbitrage” to Gibbs. Detroit, meanwhile, has not only given us zero indication that they’re willing to put a small back into a workhorse role, but they’ve actively avoided it. They already had a bigger, better version of Gibbs on their roster and they barely fed him 10-12 touches/game.

Also, I don’t think the touch competition is even remotely comparable. I’m no David Montgomery stan by any stretch, and I think the Lions made another stupid move by overpaying him rather than just re-signing locker room leader and fan favorite Jamaal Williams at a considerable discount. But he’s still a proven workhorse back, and there’s nobody on the Dolphins’ roster anywhere close to his ability.

I have had similar thoughts regarding DET.

Is Monty+Gibbs THAT much better than Williams+Swift? I think Gibbs is likely better than Swift but the upgrade comes at a big cost.

[MFundercover]

Spicy. I like it.

But I'm going on record as disagreeing with everything. Gibbs > Achane, and QJ has the highest bust potential.

[Cameron Giles]

Size is definitely a concern for both guys, but at least Miami has displayed a willingness to give undersized backs like Mostert, Gaskin and even Ahmed a workhorse role. That was the one landing spot that would’ve made me comfortable drafting Gibbs as high as he was being mocked, so when Achane landed there instead, I was immediate intrigued by him as an “arbitrage” to Gibbs. Detroit, meanwhile, has not only given us zero indication that they’re willing to put a small back into a workhorse role, but they’ve actively avoided it. They already had a bigger, better version of Gibbs on their roster and they barely fed him 10-12 touches/game.

Also, I don’t think the touch competition is even remotely comparable. I’m no David Montgomery stan by any stretch, and I think the Lions made another stupid move by overpaying him rather than just re-signing locker room leader and fan favorite Jamaal Williams at a considerable discount. But he’s still a proven workhorse back, and there’s nobody on the Dolphins’ roster anywhere close to his ability.

Detroit loved Swift, but they lost faith in him to stay on the field and didn't think he had that extra gear to him as a player.
Gibbs didn't go 1st round so that Detroit could run him 30 times a game. He went 1st round because they can play him in a number of spots in that offense and get him the ball as a weapon.

Here's the Lions pass catchers:

Amon-Ra St. Brown (stud)
Jameson Williams (suspended six games, unproven)
Marvin Jones (washed)
Josh Reynolds (not good)
Tom Kennedy (?)
Sam LaPorta (rookie, unproven)
Brock Wright (??)
James Mitchell (???)

There is a path here for Gibbs to get the Reggie Bush treatment as a WR while also playing RB.

That said, I don't think Achane is as good as Gibbs, but Achane in his own right is a very good RB who can do a lot of the same things as GIbbs.

[ericanadian]

Size is definitely a concern for both guys, but at least Miami has displayed a willingness to give undersized backs like Mostert, Gaskin and even Ahmed a workhorse role. That was the one landing spot that would’ve made me comfortable drafting Gibbs as high as he was being mocked, so when Achane landed there instead, I was immediate intrigued by him as an “arbitrage” to Gibbs. Detroit, meanwhile, has not only given us zero indication that they’re willing to put a small back into a workhorse role, but they’ve actively avoided it. They already had a bigger, better version of Gibbs on their roster and they barely fed him 10-12 touches/game.

Also, I don’t think the touch competition is even remotely comparable. I’m no David Montgomery stan by any stretch, and I think the Lions made another stupid move by overpaying him rather than just re-signing locker room leader and fan favorite Jamaal Williams at a considerable discount. But he’s still a proven workhorse back, and there’s nobody on the Dolphins’ roster anywhere close to his ability.

Detroit loved Swift, but they lost faith in him to stay on the field and didn't think he had that extra gear to him as a player.
Gibbs didn't go 1st round so that Detroit could run him 30 times a game. He went 1st round because they can play him in a number of spots in that offense and get him the ball as a weapon.

Here's the Lions pass catchers:

Amon-Ra St. Brown (stud)
Jameson Williams (suspended six games, unproven)
Marvin Jones (washed)
Josh Reynolds (not good)
Tom Kennedy (?)
Sam LaPorta (rookie, unproven)
Brock Wright (??)
James Mitchell (???)

There is a path here for Gibbs to get the Reggie Bush treatment as a WR while also playing RB.

That said, I don't think Achane is as good as Gibbs, but Achane in his own right is a very good RB who can do a lot of the same things as GIbbs.

Shane Zylstra and Kalif Raymond are probably relevant to this conversation as well, though I don’t think it really changes your point as Zylstra is unproven and Raymond is mediocre.

[Ice]

IMO the size argument is very old school thinking in today's NFL and way overblown.

Draft Players that are weapons.

The #1 fantasy back last year 5'10 200lbs
The #2 fantasy back last year 5'11 205lbs
The #7 fantasy back last year 6'00 215lbs
The #8 fantasy back last year 5'9 208lbs

Gibbs is 5'9 201 lbs with better quickness and speed.

I get some want to discount him for going high but his size and speed are not it.

We all know he won't get Henry's volume of carries but he is going to get the ball in space with a chance to take it to the house a lot.

One of the easiest top 3 picks in close to a decade in 1 QB ppr leagues.

[Bronco Billy]

IMO the size argument is very old school thinking in today's NFL and way overblown.

Draft Players that are weapons.

The #1 fantasy back last year 5'10 200lbs
The #2 fantasy back last year 5'11 205lbs
The #7 fantasy back last year 6'00 215lbs
The #8 fantasy back last year 5'9 208lbs

Gibbs is 5'9 201 lbs with better quickness and speed.

I get some want to discount him for going high but his size and speed are not it.

We all know he won't get Henry's volume of carries but he is going to get the ball in space with a chance to take it to the house a lot.

One of the easiest top 3 picks in close to a decade in 1 QB ppr leagues.

There are plenty of RBs in NFL history that were 5’-9”/5’-10” and were listed in the 205-210 range but played lighter because they couldn’t keep weight on during the season and would be considered successful up to and including elite RBs.

It’s how they handle slim seams and running through trash in college (because that’s what they’ll see for the vast majority moving forward), how their vision and decisiveness is, how quickly they can get into a seam when it does open, and then contact balance.

Neither of these guys are good inside runners. But in comparing the two, Achane is really lacking badly. Both needed gaping holes to run between tackles. When seams were NFL tight they were hesitant and failed to identify a positive path when it wasn’t wide open. Achane danced a ton and when nothing opened wide he’d try to bounce outside at a pace that was nowhere remotely close to his straightline speed, and went down easily on any kind of meaningful contact. He requires receiving the ball in space where he can have a relatively straight path downfield. If he has to avoid defenders he needs to be clean doing so or he goes down. Gibbs is much stronger as an open field runner, able to string multiple moves together and identify lateral openings that get him to an opportunity to get further downfield.

This isn’t very close IMO. Gibbs is by no means a complete back, but he’s a lot closer than Achane is. At least Achane is likely in a spot where they’ll scheme to his strengths when they use him, but those opportunities are likely to be well outside of what would be typical playscripting.

[Ice]

I don't really buy into the "he can't run inside" although it is an area to work on. He is more scheme dependent than some but he has incredible burst and he should excel in a zone blocking schemes.

I care far more about what he does great and expect the coaches to play to his strengths. I don't care if he can't run over people inside like Chubb or Henry.

I also don't think he will get a 107 receptions like Ekeler did last year but he could easily threaten 60 Plus his rookie year. If the Lions have any brains at all he will be used more like Ekeler or CMC IMO.

[Dynasty DeLorean]

Was going to post this in my rb report but figure I’ll share here since it seems relevant. Warrick Dunn (who was also a track guy) was in the 180’s when working out and drafted, so there is precedent for Achane. The main difference would be draft capital. Also found an old articl in which someone involved in drafted Tony Dorsett said he was in the 170’s when they drafted him. Also we’ve seen Phillip Lindsay have a lot of success given his draft capital who was also under 190lbs. There aren’t many examples but there certainly is precedent for Achane to be successful.

[Ice]

Was going to post this in my rb report but figure I’ll share here since it seems relevant. Warrick Dunn (who was also a track guy) was in the 180’s when working out and drafted, so there is precedent for Achane. The main difference would be draft capital. Also found an old articl in which someone involved in drafted Tony Dorsett said he was in the 170’s when they drafted him. Also we’ve seen Phillip Lindsay have a lot of success given his draft capital who was also under 190lbs. There aren’t many examples but there certainly is precedent for Achane to be successful.

No disagreement he can be successful, it’s the part that he is greater than Gibbs that I just can’t get on board with personally.