1.02 aftershock in 1QB with quick drafts after that Gibbs pick

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SteveMaddensShoes
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Re: 1.02 aftershock in 1QB with quick drafts after that Gibbs pick

Postby SteveMaddensShoes » Fri Apr 28, 2023 8:25 am

Bronco Billy wrote: Fri Apr 28, 2023 8:22 am
Lumps wrote: Fri Apr 28, 2023 6:06 am When asked who he thought his comp was, Gibbs said "CMC."

So add “delusional” to his scouting report?
Lol.

Why stop at cmc? Go the extra mile and claim you are a mutant combo of AP/Darren Sproles/Barry Sanders/Kenny Powers. Know your worth, Jahmyr!
TEAM 1 - 12 man SF. ppr, TEP 1.65 ppr

11 starters - QB, RB(2) WR(3) TE, SF, Flex(3)

Stroud, Kyler, Bryce Young, Anthony Richardson, Minshew, Trey Lance, Dalton l, Mike White

Breece, Achane, AJ Dillon, Justice Hill, Evan Hull, Chris Rodgriquez

Chase, Lamb, Waddle, Olave, London Drake, Demario Davis, Jake Bobo

Kyle Pitts, Mark Andrews, Kincaid, Schoonmaker

24 picks - 1x2, 3,4,5

Team 2-
12 man SF, .25ppc, .5ppr rbs, 1 ppr wr, 1.5 ppr TE

Joe Burrow, Trevor Lawerence, Jake Haehner, Jake Browning

JT, Kendre Miller,, K Ingram, Ty Chandler, Michael Carter, Kenny Macintosh, Sean Tucker

Puka, Rondale, Mooney, Wan’dale, Terrace Marshall, DPJ, Justyn Ross, Xavier Hutchinson,

Kyle Pitts, Luke Musgrave, Juwan Johnson, Darnell Washington, Jelani Woods, Elijah Higgins


24 - 1st x 3, 2nd x 2, 4th x 3 ,5

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Re: 1.02 aftershock in 1QB with quick drafts after that Gibbs pick

Postby Lumps » Fri Apr 28, 2023 8:29 am

SteveMaddensShoes wrote: Fri Apr 28, 2023 8:25 am
Bronco Billy wrote: Fri Apr 28, 2023 8:22 am
Lumps wrote: Fri Apr 28, 2023 6:06 am When asked who he thought his comp was, Gibbs said "CMC."

So add “delusional” to his scouting report?
Lol.

Why stop at cmc? Go the extra mile and claim you are a mutant combo of AP/Darren Sproles/Barry Sanders/Kenny Powers. Know your worth, Jahmyr!
Did not know I needed to include you on the Bronco Billy spectrum. Noted.

I guess neither of you can either read or comprehend metrics?
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Re: 1.02 aftershock in 1QB with quick drafts after that Gibbs pick

Postby SteveMaddensShoes » Fri Apr 28, 2023 8:35 am

Lumps wrote: Fri Apr 28, 2023 8:29 am
SteveMaddensShoes wrote: Fri Apr 28, 2023 8:25 am
Bronco Billy wrote: Fri Apr 28, 2023 8:22 am

So add “delusional” to his scouting report?
Lol.

Why stop at cmc? Go the extra mile and claim you are a mutant combo of AP/Darren Sproles/Barry Sanders/Kenny Powers. Know your worth, Jahmyr!
Did not know I needed to include you on the Bronco Billy spectrum. Noted.

I guess neither of you can either read or comprehend metrics?
Wait, are you actually Jahmyr Gibbs?
TEAM 1 - 12 man SF. ppr, TEP 1.65 ppr

11 starters - QB, RB(2) WR(3) TE, SF, Flex(3)

Stroud, Kyler, Bryce Young, Anthony Richardson, Minshew, Trey Lance, Dalton l, Mike White

Breece, Achane, AJ Dillon, Justice Hill, Evan Hull, Chris Rodgriquez

Chase, Lamb, Waddle, Olave, London Drake, Demario Davis, Jake Bobo

Kyle Pitts, Mark Andrews, Kincaid, Schoonmaker

24 picks - 1x2, 3,4,5

Team 2-
12 man SF, .25ppc, .5ppr rbs, 1 ppr wr, 1.5 ppr TE

Joe Burrow, Trevor Lawerence, Jake Haehner, Jake Browning

JT, Kendre Miller,, K Ingram, Ty Chandler, Michael Carter, Kenny Macintosh, Sean Tucker

Puka, Rondale, Mooney, Wan’dale, Terrace Marshall, DPJ, Justyn Ross, Xavier Hutchinson,

Kyle Pitts, Luke Musgrave, Juwan Johnson, Darnell Washington, Jelani Woods, Elijah Higgins


24 - 1st x 3, 2nd x 2, 4th x 3 ,5

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Bronco Billy
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Re: 1.02 aftershock in 1QB with quick drafts after that Gibbs pick

Postby Bronco Billy » Fri Apr 28, 2023 8:37 am

tstafford wrote: Fri Apr 28, 2023 3:31 am To be clear - what do people mean when they say "draft capital"? The OP asked how DET selecting Gibbs and SEA selecting JSN impacts their dynasty rookie draft position. That's not really about "draft capital" it's about how the team they are going to impacts their near term prospects for fantasy production.

I agree that arguing that because a player was taken #12 or #22 (draft capital) we should expect X,Y, Z only goes so far. And the difference b/w those positions is nominal. However I think landing spot (NFL team) does factor in. How could it not? Example: The strongest arguments against Treylon Burks are all about the Titans.
Both have some question marks with their landing spots. DET has a strong history of drafting very capable O players and then not finding ways to use them effectively. As long as Swift and ARSB are there you have to question whether Gibbs’ opportunities are going to get a ceiling since they both operate as receivers in the same strata on O.

In SEA you’ve got to wonder as well about capped opportunities for JSN. They have 2 strong 1000 yd WRs, their TEs accumulate another 1000 as a group - and it would not shock me to see them dip into this deep TE pool with a pick - and their RBs don’t get a lot of love receiving but they do account for some few hundred yards. Unless people think Geno is suddenly going to become a 4600 yd passer someone (or someones) are going to get their opportunities truncated.

Say what you want about draft capital and how great you think these two are, but neither has proven a thing yet in the NFL and the respective team philosophies are going to have to change their well documented spots to get either guy a chance to be optimized.

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Re: 1.02 aftershock in 1QB with quick drafts after that Gibbs pick

Postby Bronco Billy » Fri Apr 28, 2023 8:47 am

Lumps wrote: Fri Apr 28, 2023 8:29 am
SteveMaddensShoes wrote: Fri Apr 28, 2023 8:25 am
Bronco Billy wrote: Fri Apr 28, 2023 8:22 am

So add “delusional” to his scouting report?
Lol.

Why stop at cmc? Go the extra mile and claim you are a mutant combo of AP/Darren Sproles/Barry Sanders/Kenny Powers. Know your worth, Jahmyr!
Did not know I needed to include you on the Bronco Billy spectrum. Noted.

I guess neither of you can either read or comprehend metrics?
The”Bronco Billy spectrum”? Really?

CMC was more than capable of running inside. A lot of scouting reports had him coming out of Stanford pigeonholed as a CoP RB, but those people clearly were not watching his tape very closely. He was very effective between the tackles, even in short yardage situations. That Cardinal team was not opening big holes for him and he still performed.

Gibbs has not shown the same capability to date. I know it’s rhetoric time when guys are asked those kinds of questions, but for him to compare himself to such a well rounded RB as CMC when he has such a demonstrable weakness operating as a 3 down back means he’s either bsing his answer or he has little self awareness.

So post all the stats you want from different guys operating on different teams in different conferences in different Os, but their film shows something very different.

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Re: 1.02 aftershock in 1QB with quick drafts after that Gibbs pick

Postby Cameron Giles » Fri Apr 28, 2023 8:57 am

I called it during the college season threads, but the Gibbs/CMC production profiles are very, very similar. And now they have similar draft pedigree on top of it.

Gibbs:
5'9
199 lbs
29.4 BMI
4.36 40YD
93rd Percentile Target Share
Pick 1.12
103/1212/8 receiving line in 31 college games

CMC:
5'11
202 lbs
28.2 BMI
4.48 40YD
98th Percentile Target Share
Pick 1.08
99/1202/10 receiving line in 37 college games

I'm sure there are differences in their game, but the profile is there. It doesn't mean Gibbs is going to put up the same production, but it means that Gibbs is a pretty damn safe prospect and got validated as an elite RB prospect in this draft.

If there's anyone willing to give me a Detroit discount, then I'll gladly take it.

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Re: 1.02 aftershock in 1QB with quick drafts after that Gibbs pick

Postby Oddball456 » Fri Apr 28, 2023 9:18 am

So, with the high draft spot for Gibbs, does that close the gap some between him and Bijan? Clearly the Falcons was a good landing spot for Bijan as well. JSN landing in SEA, as noted above, makes for early career production less likely for sure.

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Re: 1.02 aftershock in 1QB with quick drafts after that Gibbs pick

Postby Bronco Billy » Fri Apr 28, 2023 9:42 am

Oddball456 wrote: Fri Apr 28, 2023 9:18 am So, with the high draft spot for Gibbs, does that close the gap some between him and Bijan? Clearly the Falcons was a good landing spot for Bijan as well. JSN landing in SEA, as noted above, makes for early career production less likely for sure.
No. Bijan landed in a premium spot. #1 in rushing attempts, #3 in rushing yds, team ypa at 4.9 - with Allgeier and Patterson sharing the lead back role. He has receivers that will prevent 8 in the box (which he desperately needs between the tackles) with an Oline that mashes opponents. He’ll have room to operate as a receiver with where the big 2 operate.

I’m not sure anyone could have picked a much better spot for him.

Gibbs is going to have to rely on DET optimizing his receiving strength while minimizing his power running weakness. DET has not exactly been a paragon in utilizing O players to maximize them - ARSB excepted.

I see the gap between the two as being wider because of the landing spots until DET proves that it has figured out how to properly use a RB.

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Re: 1.02 aftershock in 1QB with quick drafts after that Gibbs pick

Postby Lumps » Fri Apr 28, 2023 10:59 am

Cameron Giles wrote: Fri Apr 28, 2023 8:57 am I called it during the college season threads, but the Gibbs/CMC production profiles are very, very similar. And now they have similar draft pedigree on top of it.

Gibbs:
5'9
199 lbs
29.4 BMI
4.36 40YD
93rd Percentile Target Share
Pick 1.12
103/1212/8 receiving line in 31 college games

CMC:
5'11
202 lbs
28.2 BMI
4.48 40YD
98th Percentile Target Share
Pick 1.08
99/1202/10 receiving line in 37 college games

I'm sure there are differences in their game, but the profile is there. It doesn't mean Gibbs is going to put up the same production, but it means that Gibbs is a pretty damn safe prospect and got validated as an elite RB prospect in this draft.

If there's anyone willing to give me a Detroit discount, then I'll gladly take it.
We have advanced stats showing the company he is in. We have these kinds of stats above showing the company he is in. We have Daniel Jerimiah saying the same thing. Other draftniks. Word that the Jets would have taken him at 15. That other teams would have traded up if he any further.

And here is Kirk Herbstreit saying the same thing. But ya know... other people know better.

https://twitter.com/PatMcAfeeShow/statu ... SyhO0tAAAA
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Re: 1.02 aftershock in 1QB with quick drafts after that Gibbs pick

Postby SteveMaddensShoes » Fri Apr 28, 2023 11:09 am

Lumps wrote: Fri Apr 28, 2023 10:59 am
Cameron Giles wrote: Fri Apr 28, 2023 8:57 am I called it during the college season threads, but the Gibbs/CMC production profiles are very, very similar. And now they have similar draft pedigree on top of it.

Gibbs:
5'9
199 lbs
29.4 BMI
4.36 40YD
93rd Percentile Target Share
Pick 1.12
103/1212/8 receiving line in 31 college games

CMC:
5'11
202 lbs
28.2 BMI
4.48 40YD
98th Percentile Target Share
Pick 1.08
99/1202/10 receiving line in 37 college games

I'm sure there are differences in their game, but the profile is there. It doesn't mean Gibbs is going to put up the same production, but it means that Gibbs is a pretty damn safe prospect and got validated as an elite RB prospect in this draft.

If there's anyone willing to give me a Detroit discount, then I'll gladly take it.
We have advanced stats showing the company he is in. We have these kinds of stats above showing the company he is in. We have Daniel Jerimiah saying the same thing. Other draftniks. Word that the Jets would have taken him at 15. That other teams would have traded up if he any further.

And here is Kirk Herbstreit saying the same thing. But ya know... other people know better.

https://twitter.com/PatMcAfeeShow/statu ... SyhO0tAAAA
I suppose if we just listen to the experts everything will turn out great then. No busts. No disappointment and a thriving economy.

But seriously, I understand some of the comps. I just think comparing yourself to one of the best rbs to ever play is kind of funny.
TEAM 1 - 12 man SF. ppr, TEP 1.65 ppr

11 starters - QB, RB(2) WR(3) TE, SF, Flex(3)

Stroud, Kyler, Bryce Young, Anthony Richardson, Minshew, Trey Lance, Dalton l, Mike White

Breece, Achane, AJ Dillon, Justice Hill, Evan Hull, Chris Rodgriquez

Chase, Lamb, Waddle, Olave, London Drake, Demario Davis, Jake Bobo

Kyle Pitts, Mark Andrews, Kincaid, Schoonmaker

24 picks - 1x2, 3,4,5

Team 2-
12 man SF, .25ppc, .5ppr rbs, 1 ppr wr, 1.5 ppr TE

Joe Burrow, Trevor Lawerence, Jake Haehner, Jake Browning

JT, Kendre Miller,, K Ingram, Ty Chandler, Michael Carter, Kenny Macintosh, Sean Tucker

Puka, Rondale, Mooney, Wan’dale, Terrace Marshall, DPJ, Justyn Ross, Xavier Hutchinson,

Kyle Pitts, Luke Musgrave, Juwan Johnson, Darnell Washington, Jelani Woods, Elijah Higgins


24 - 1st x 3, 2nd x 2, 4th x 3 ,5

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Re: 1.02 aftershock in 1QB with quick drafts after that Gibbs pick

Postby Cameron Giles » Fri Apr 28, 2023 11:36 am

SteveMaddensShoes wrote: Fri Apr 28, 2023 11:09 am
I suppose if we just listen to the experts everything will turn out great then. No busts. No disappointment and a thriving economy.

But seriously, I understand some of the comps. I just think comparing yourself to one of the best rbs to ever play is kind of funny.
"I would say that I like to model my game after a Duke Johnson." :lol:

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Re: 1.02 aftershock in 1QB with quick drafts after that Gibbs pick

Postby Lumps » Fri Apr 28, 2023 11:40 am

Cameron Giles wrote: Fri Apr 28, 2023 11:36 am
SteveMaddensShoes wrote: Fri Apr 28, 2023 11:09 am
I suppose if we just listen to the experts everything will turn out great then. No busts. No disappointment and a thriving economy.

But seriously, I understand some of the comps. I just think comparing yourself to one of the best rbs to ever play is kind of funny.
"I would say that I like to model my game after a Duke Johnson." :lol:
"I aspire to be Ryan Leaf."
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Re: 1.02 aftershock in 1QB with quick drafts after that Gibbs pick

Postby SteveMaddensShoes » Fri Apr 28, 2023 11:48 am

Cameron Giles wrote: Fri Apr 28, 2023 11:36 am
SteveMaddensShoes wrote: Fri Apr 28, 2023 11:09 am
I suppose if we just listen to the experts everything will turn out great then. No busts. No disappointment and a thriving economy.

But seriously, I understand some of the comps. I just think comparing yourself to one of the best rbs to ever play is kind of funny.
"I would say that I like to model my game after a Duke Johnson." :lol:
Duke Johnson, Gio Bernard. Even a little Bishop Sankey you might say.
TEAM 1 - 12 man SF. ppr, TEP 1.65 ppr

11 starters - QB, RB(2) WR(3) TE, SF, Flex(3)

Stroud, Kyler, Bryce Young, Anthony Richardson, Minshew, Trey Lance, Dalton l, Mike White

Breece, Achane, AJ Dillon, Justice Hill, Evan Hull, Chris Rodgriquez

Chase, Lamb, Waddle, Olave, London Drake, Demario Davis, Jake Bobo

Kyle Pitts, Mark Andrews, Kincaid, Schoonmaker

24 picks - 1x2, 3,4,5

Team 2-
12 man SF, .25ppc, .5ppr rbs, 1 ppr wr, 1.5 ppr TE

Joe Burrow, Trevor Lawerence, Jake Haehner, Jake Browning

JT, Kendre Miller,, K Ingram, Ty Chandler, Michael Carter, Kenny Macintosh, Sean Tucker

Puka, Rondale, Mooney, Wan’dale, Terrace Marshall, DPJ, Justyn Ross, Xavier Hutchinson,

Kyle Pitts, Luke Musgrave, Juwan Johnson, Darnell Washington, Jelani Woods, Elijah Higgins


24 - 1st x 3, 2nd x 2, 4th x 3 ,5

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Re: 1.02 aftershock in 1QB with quick drafts after that Gibbs pick

Postby MacDaddy123 » Fri Apr 28, 2023 11:53 am

I had JSN at 1.02 and Gibbs at 1.03 before last night, and nothing happened last night to change my mind.

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Re: 1.02 aftershock in 1QB with quick drafts after that Gibbs pick

Postby Jrblaha » Fri Apr 28, 2023 1:47 pm

Sounds like Lions would have gone Gibbs at 1.6 over Bijan. I was a slight JSN lean predraft and now a slight Gibbs lean post draft. I don’t blame anyone flipping them tho, dealers choice
12 team. PPR. QB pass td = 6
Starters: QB(1) FLEX (RB/WR/TE)(2) RB(2) WR(3) TE(1)

QB: AR, DJones
RB: Gibby, Charb, KMiller, Akers
WR: Chase, Lamb, G Wilson, Tank Dell, Burks, Mimsy, Tutu, W Robinson, Tucker, Wicks, RBell
TE: DNjoku, Hunter Henry

Draft Picks: 2024: 1.2, 1.5, 1.11. 2025: 1st Round (2) 2nd Round (1), 2026: 1st Round (1) 2nd Round (2)


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