I try to highlight one receiver each year who catches my interest during the college season:
Previous Years:
2022: Chris Olave
2021: Elijah Moore
2020: Henry Ruggs
2019: Marquise Brown
2017: Isaiah Ford
2016: Michael Thomas
2015: Tyler Lockett
Monologue:
This year's WR class is a step down from 2022, which tied a record for the most WRs selected in the first two rounds of the NFL Draft. While 2023 has become more of an afterparty to the 2022 class, there is still plenty of value to be had among pass catchers in this group. I wanted to change things up this year and look at multiple WRs that you should consider targeting before highlighting this year's primary target.
Deep Sleeper - Jayden Reed
- 5'10, 187 lbs
- 18.4 BOA, 98th Percentile
- 4.45 40YD, 70th Percentile
- Mizelle ADP: 4.04
Why:Part of what I'm looking for in a deep sleeper is someone who has a skill or ST value that can stick on a team without having a path to being a starter. Jayden Reed's punt returning potentially gives him that chance to stay on a roster and be active for game days. If injuries pave a way, Reed could have a path to impress. At heart, Reed's an outside WR, who Michigan State felt very comfortable with on corner routes and contested catch opportunities. He has the speed to win deep, solid ball skills, and good body control. Reed finished with a 70.3% success rate vs. man last year and an 87th percentile vs. press in Reception Perception. I'm not projecting anything high with Reed, but if you're able to get him around the late 3rd or worse, he's a player that's worth considering for your pick. He does need some improvements in his game, but at the very least you're getting a player who can be active as a rookie if a team prioritizes his ST value on Day 3.
Late Sleeper - Marvin Mims Jr.
- 5'11, 183 lbs
- 4-Star, Top-30 WR in 2020
- Early Declare
- 18.5 BOA, 96th Percentile (averaged 4.07 YPRR)
- 54/1083/6 as a Junior
- 4.38 40YD, 90th percentile
- 129" Broad Jump, 89th Percentile
- 39 1/2 Vert, 89th Percentile
- Mizelle ADP: 2.12
Why: If you're looking for value towards the middle of rookie drafts, this is a name you should monitor. Mims quietly had a fantastic draft combine, posting a 9.39 RAS. Mims has a lot of Brandin Cooks and Darnell Mooney to his game. His calling card is his big play ability, as Oklahoma featured him on a lot of deep corner routes and he excelled when running verticals and after the catch. Mims averaged 8.2 YAC per reception this season, which was the second-highest mark in this class and a 72.2% success rate against man coverage. Mims early career production also bodes extremely well. Mims draft projections seem to be all over the place. He could definitely sneak into Day 2 or be a steal in R4-5.
But for me, Josh Downs has been my favorite WR to watch all season.
Background Check:
- 4-Star, Top-20 WR in 2020
- Limited playing time as a freshman
- Explodes for a 101/1335/8 season as a sophomore in 13 games with Sam Howell at QB
- 94/1029/11 in 11 games as a junior with Drake Maye at QB
- Early Declare
- 19.1 BOA, 87th Percentile
- 86.5 Receiving Grade (PFF)
- Mizelle ADP: 1.08
Draft Combine:
- 5'9, 171 lbs
- 93rd Percentile 10YS
- 92nd Percentile Broad Jump
- 83rd Percentile Vertical
- 4.48 40YD
While Downs' size may rush you into thinking he's your typical slot receiver, he's far from it. Downs fits the mold of a small WR that you want in today's NFL: He plays bigger than size, he establishes himself as a go-to talent, he shows premier separation ability and understanding of route concepts against zone, and he has the speed and technique to win at all three levels.
Usage and Production:
- Targeted on 37.7% of his routes against man coverage
- 3.72 YPRR against man coverage
Downs started the season with a lower body injury following a 9/78/2 line against FAMU in Week 0. He returned three weeks later against Notre Dame, and while he was good the following weeks, he didn't round into the player we saw in 2021, when he averaged a whopping 11.38 targets/game. From Week 7 on, Downs averaged more than 12 targets a game until the end of the season. For comparison for how this stacked up against some of the more prominent names in this class:
Josh Downs - 12.28
Rashee Rice - 11.57
Zay Flowers - 10.33
Tyler Scott - 9
Jordan Addison - 8
Jalin Hyatt - 7.7
Marvin Mims - 7.28
Quentin Johnston - 5.8
To put this in perspective even more, Kevin Cole (formerly of PFF and RotoGrinders) looked at each WRs career receiving yards per team pass attempt:. Cole's basis is that receiving yards per team attempt has a stronger statistical indicator of WRs translating to the next level than target share.
These were the top-5 WRs in this year's class:
Jason Brownlee - 4.32
Quentin Johnston - 4.08
Josh Downs - 3.93
Jordan Addison - 3.69
Zay Flowers - 3.63
There are only 6 wide receivers in the 2023 class who averaged +3.00 Rec Yards/Team Pass Attempt in at least one season of their college careers. The only ones to accomplish this in a Power 5 Conference & before their 3rd season: Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Josh Downs. (Credit: FFBallers)
Downs has consistently been the foundation of UNC's offensive attack for two seasons now, and has produced regardless of the talent around him or the QB throwing to him. Downs finished 2nd in class in first downs gained vs. man coverage (20). UNC also featured Downs in the red zone. Last season, 9 of his 11 REC TDs came in the red zone, which was the highest mark of any Power-5 WR.
Here, Downs shows his agility and burst with a great free release off the LOS. He fakes a slant inside and benefits from a pick route by his teammate, opening up an easy touchdown to the outside. While Downs aDOT dropped this season (8.8), he still showed the ability to win at all three levels. He had 38 targets in the 10-19 (intermediate) level of the field and 20+ yards, and caught 29 of those for a 38/572/8 line.
Downs was about as high volume in targets and complete in level usage as you'll see from a slot, let alone any WR in this class and was able to decrease his drop rate this year to 3.1% (3 total).
Route Running
PFF: 92.1 Grade vs. Man Coverage
Reception Perception: 87th Percentile vs. Man Coverage
Reception Perception: 86th Percentile vs. Press
Outside of Jaxon Smith-Njigba, there's a strong case that Josh Downs is the second best route runner in this year's class.
Here, Downs lines up for a rare outside snap, uses a stutter step to create enough hesitation to beat the defender for enough room to make a difficult catch. These types of plays show up consistently with Downs, who isn't just a good route runner, but has the ball skills to be dangerous.
One of the similarities JSN and Downs share is their elite usage from the slot. 82.7% of Downs' snaps last year came from the slot. It's normal to look at high usage from the slot as a negative for a WR. The biggest and most impactful yardage comes from outside WRs, and having versatility in alignment makes it harder to game plan for WRs. While there is a question of whether Downs will develop any significant usage outside, his elite usage and production in the slot suggests he does have a high ceiling, even if most of the yardage comes from the inside.
Notable slot Yardage in 2022:
CeeDee Lamb - 867 (63.7% of yardage)
Christian Kirk - 823 (74.2% of yardage)
Chris Godwin - 694 (67.8% of yardage)
Amon-Ra St. Brown - 519 (44.7% of yardage)
Jerry Jeudy - 519 (53.3% of yardage)
Since 2017, there have been 17 players drafted who ended up with a WR1 season. Of those 17 players, seven ran over 60% of their routes from the slot in college. While I'm not predicting a WR1 ceiling for Downs, his limited outside usage should not be a barrier to high-level fantasy production.
Here, Downs gets the defender to bite on the stop and go route, and turns up field towards the back corner of the endzone to make a great catch. Downs is a nightmare to guard with free releases and the ability to break either way against defenses. He plays with an enviable level of patience and suddeness in his routes. Downs excels at changing up speeds and using step sequences off the LOS. His patience in allowing concepts to develop properly allows him to really attack defenses with his route running from the slot.
These types of plays show up consistently, though unfortunately the underthrown ball doesn't get what should've been an easy touchdown. Downs change of direction speed and footwork are about as high level as you'll see from a player coming into the league. Downs could really become a favorite target for QBs who work scramble drills. He shows a strong ability to adjust to plays on the fly and use his change of direction to create the throwing windows for a QB to rely on.
Ball Skills and Physicality
One of the best contested catch WRs in this year's class is Downs. This was a big development for Downs game at the next level. In 2021, Downs went 3 for 14 in contested catch situations, but this season he finished with 13 contested catches, converting over 70% of his attempts. Even with a low mark in 2021, Downs stacks up well against the rest of the class in converting catches in traffic:
Career Contested Target Conversion Rate:
1. Jaxon Smith-Njigba - 71.4%
2. Cedric Tillman - 53.8%
3. Josh Downs - 53.1%
4. Tyler Scott - 50%
5. Jordan Addison - 49%
6. Rashee Rice - 48.5%
7. Jalin Hyatt - 46.2%
8. Zay Flowers - 41.5%
9. Quentin Johnston - 40.7%
The draft combine put a number to something that became apparent during the season: Josh Downs is a really good athlete. You don't see a lot of WRs his size, especially from the slot, who are able to compete vertically and play physically before and at the highest point of attack.
On top of it, Downs is fantastic at tracking the ball.
Again, using a step release to get the defender to bite before accelerating downfield and making a very difficult diving catch.
Yards After Catch
In 2021, Downs totaled 754 yards after catch, which was the highest mark among ACC WRs with over 7 YAC/rec. Downs burst and change of direction shows up in a big way when he's given clear opportunities to be a playmaker after the catch.
However, in 2022 Downs dipped in this stat. He averaged just 4 YAC/rec and only forced 7 missed tackles. I can't really pinpoint the reason for this drop, but I'd like to think Downs is more than capable of bouncing back at the next level with his agility, speed, and burst. There are a lot of traditional and unconventional ways to get the ball in his hands to be a playmaker and UNC relied heavily on that for the last couple of seasons.
What Scouts Are Saying:
Lance Zierlien:
Dane Brugler:Free-flowing athlete with dynamic footwork and an instinctive feel for how to elude opponents. Downs posted off-the-charts production over the last two seasons as an undersized slot with an oversized will. His confidence jumps off the tape and he has proven himself to be better at catching through contact than you might expect. While his route running is effective and fun to watch, coaches will need him to become more disciplined and efficient in order to maintain the timing of play designs. Downs might not have prototypical size, but he’s well-positioned to keep stacking catches and making plays as a starting NFL slot receiver.
Outlook:A tough guy to cover one-on-one, Josh Downs can work all three levels with his ability to control acceleration and tease defensive backs with agile footwork. The main hang-up on Downs is his undersized frame, but he has a bigger catch radius than his size suggests and consistently pulls in throws.
Establish the Run's Model returns very optimistic comparables:
If Downs ADP holds at 1.08 or lower (and there is a chance he slips with landing spots), I think he is very solid value. If you're not in the business of drafting small WRs that high, then Marvin Mims Jr. is fantastic alternative value later in the draft, assuming he also holds his value of a late 2nd or worse.
Downs covers all of the age-adjusted production, usage, and route running marks that I look for in a WR. On top of it, he's a very instinctive and smart player, who plays with high confidence in his routes. He uses a strong combination of releases, head fakes, and suddeness that makes him dangerous on two-ways. The fact that he also has the YAC ability and competes as well as he does at catchpoint and in contested catch scenarios is a major boost for him. Downs has a very high floor as a slot in the NFL, who will need to show he can handle playing more on the outside to increase his upside further.
Downs should be a Day 2 WR and doesn't need a particular scheme to translate his skillset and value to the NFL.
