2023 edition: Which highly rated pre-draft prospect will tumble the most post-draft?

[jordanzs]

Notable highlights from years past:

2022: Malik Willis was a 'consensus' top 3 dynasty pick (superflex) leading up to the draft.

2019: Hakeem Butler was a 'consensus' top 4 dynasty pick, and I even saw him go 1.1 before the NFL draft.

2019: Kelvin Harmon seemed to hovering in the 1.7 zone until the NFL told us otherwise

2014: Lache Seastrunk (remember him?) was considered to be a top 5 prospect in mock and pre-nfl rookie drafts.

Although we may not see this big of a slide this year, we should see some. Call out your guess, which current top 12 prospect will fall the most once we're drafting in May? I'll bump up this post around the middle of May & give virtual high-5's to the winner

[j4pac]

Quentin Johnson and Will Levis

[mild]

We've already seen one - Kayshon Boutte was being penciled with 1st round potential as late as January, and is currently available in the mid-to-late 3rd.

[Cameron Giles]

Kayshon Boutte has already done this. Top 5-6 pick and now could fall pretty hard.

[Pullo Vision]

Who will fall the most due to bad situation/landing spot- Gibbs, Achane, Spears all seem scheme specific. If they go to a team that doesn't give their RBs enough well schemed targets, their dynasty ADP will drop.

Who could fall due to lower draft cap than currently projected- Hyatt, QJ, Bigsby.

[Ice]

Wouldn’t surprise me at all if Zach Charbonnet drops like a rock.

[Ruggenater]

Putting aside Boutte and focusing only on the prospects people are currently projecting to go in the top half of rookie drafts, I’ll say Anthony Richardson. He’s the type of player made for fantasy scoring (QB1 in this class in more and more rookie rankings), and also a huge projection right now for the actual NFL. If I had to bet, I’ll still wager on him going in the top 5 of the actual NFL draft, but of the group he’s in, I see him as being the most likely to negatively surprise on draft night.

[Mjvb5]

Boutte and any rb not names bijan and Gibbs are liable to go rd5 and plummet

[Jigga94]

Quentin Johnson and Will Levis

Yeah if Levis doesn't go top 10 like most are predicting, he would certainly drop further in rookie drafts. I doubt QJ drops though, but I guess we never know.

[BigBawseRoss]

QJ. im expecting a hakeem butler like drop

[wickerkat1212]

Boutte.

[natjjohn]

I don’t think Boutte counts as he’s not highly rated pre-draft. See a lot of folks saying but again, he’s not highly rated. Believe he’s going third roundish in current rookie drafts. That’s already awful territory.

Hard to say. Would lean a running back but not sure which one as draft capital is so telling for RBs so if don’t make it day two, it’s stock drop time though even then that doesn’t always happen. Remember Spiller going in the early second in one I did in June long after it was known the pre-draft hype was gone and he was a day three back

[Patsfan86]

I’m gonna go ballsy here and say JSN. I think my Pats are gonna take him and we are gonna get some
Of these RBs getting good draft cap on good teams. I still believe NFL teams value good RBs and won’t hesitate to draft them in the 2nd. Those 2 things combined will push JSN down, not significantly but still down to like the 1.06 range. Like I said ballsy take but
I see it as a possibility. All it takes is 3 teams to rate 3 of these many RBs in the 2nd round and then we have 5 RBs drafted in rounds 1 and 2

[Ice]

I’m gonna go ballsy here and say JSN. I think my Pats are gonna take him and we are gonna get some
Of these RBs getting good draft cap on good teams. I still believe NFL teams value good RBs and won’t hesitate to draft them in the 2nd. Those 2 things combined will push JSN down, not significantly but still down to like the 1.06 range. Like I said ballsy take but
I see it as a possibility. All it takes is 3 teams to rate 3 of these many RBs in the 2nd round and then we have 5 RBs drafted in rounds 1 and 2

Not sure where you think he will get drafted but I will be shocked if he is picked outside the top 20 and flabbergasted if he falls to to round 2. Top 15 isn't falling for a WR in this class given the Edge rushers, DB's and O line in this class.

He should go before any RB IMO. He would be a great pick for your Pats. I do think they may have to move up to get him though.

He is a legit top 3 fantasy pic today, we will see on draft day how much he moves. I think with the right team he could be close to 100 catch player as a rookie.

[Patsfan86]

I’m gonna go ballsy here and say JSN. I think my Pats are gonna take him and we are gonna get some
Of these RBs getting good draft cap on good teams. I still believe NFL teams value good RBs and won’t hesitate to draft them in the 2nd. Those 2 things combined will push JSN down, not significantly but still down to like the 1.06 range. Like I said ballsy take but
I see it as a possibility. All it takes is 3 teams to rate 3 of these many RBs in the 2nd round and then we have 5 RBs drafted in rounds 1 and 2

Not sure where you think he will get drafted but I will be shocked if he is picked outside the top 20 and flabbergasted if he falls to to round 2. Top 15 isn't falling for a WR in this class given the Edge rushers, DB's and O line in this class.

He should go before any RB IMO. He would be a great pick for your Pats. I do think they may have to move up to get him though.

He is a legit top 3 fantasy pic today, we will see on draft day how much he moves. I think with the right team he could be close to 100 catch player as a rookie.

Oh i LOVE him for real life and fantasy and really hope the pats take him. I also know he will be a first round NFL pick. But I wanted to have a hot take here so I said Him. The only possible way he drops to 1.06 In fantasy drafts is if he goes to a place like NE (even at pick 14) who people rightfully hate for fantasy AND some of these RBs get taken in the 2nd to dream landing spots.

Say this happens JSN goes to pats at 1.14

1st round Bijan goes
Gibbs Chargers 2nd round
Achane Buffalo 2nd round
Charbonet bengals 2nd round
Eagles or chiefs take one of these RBs 2nd round

We COULD possibly see JSN fall if that Happens, highly unlikely but possible.

Just a hot take