Purdy vs Lance 2023

[Needalife]

The Purdy vs Lance topic needs its own thread. I've seen it debated in multiple threads now and it's time to gather in one place.

Lance side:
I see people buying Lance for a 2023 SuperFlex 1st and have mentioned he could go in the 2nd of a SF startup right now. They seem to think that Purdy will not hold the job unless he wins the Super Bowl.

Purdy side:
Personally, I've seen enough. Even if they lose this week it remains Purdy's job IMO. He's the best fit I've seen in this system since Shanahan landed in San Fran. The only challenge is getting a proper read without CMC which is obviously impossible to do. Purdy runs this system perfectly and has room to grow and become even more dangerous. I haven't seen enough from Lance in his limited time to make me think he's a superior talent.

What side do you fall on and why? I attached a poll for the heck of it too but more interested in the discussion.

[murphysxm]

I land on the side that thinks Lance is done in SF. I think they would prefer to hand the keys to Purdy and remove the distraction that Lance may provide. They are too vastly different from a skill set perspective to carry one as the back up to the other easily. They won't get back their initial investment, but if they can get some of it back, it is an easy way to turn the page.

[bjd5211]

Purdy gonna have a terrible playoff game and SF will bring in Brady for a year to go all in for the SB next year and groom Purdy to take over in 2024. Lance gets traded.

[Bronco Billy]

I see this as a legitimate QB competition starting in OTAs all the way through preseason.

I do believe that SF understands the concept of sunk costs and would be willing to go with Purdy over Lance, especially given the performance in games by each to date. I do not believe that SF will move on from Lance without significant due diligence, and further that it is their best interest that if they are going to move on from Lance that they know they want to make him look as good as they can before they were to trade him to optimize his value.

So I’ll take an option that isn’t available, which is that this will be a full blown QB competition and that whomever starts is going to be the one that runs the O the more successfully. Right now that’s Purdy and I see it as difficult to even make a credible case in favor of Lance, but that can change in 6 months.

[CGW]

I take option 4. I think they keep them both in a true QB competition through the offseason. Purdy has been too good not to give him a shot. Bringing Lance in special packages for RPOs and QB keepers while having Purdy run the offense. Seems like the kind of the Shannahan probably dreams about at night. Draft capital, sunk costs, recovering value, distractions...doubt they care much about that.

[olmansmith]

+1 4th option, this will be a QB comp in my mind. The caveat being that if Purdy wins the superbowl (like he is the reason, superbowl mvp, etc) then he probably holds the job.

The problem with Purdy is that he simply cannot have Lance's ceiling athletically. I understand that Lance's ceiling scenario is super unlikely at this point, but I think the Niners will want to rule it fully out before giving up on their 3x1st round pick.

If the niners can find a way to handle the personality conflict side of all this (which it feels like they are above average at) I'd guess their ideal scenario is start Lance for 5-6 games next year. If he can show he is a net neutral for this team compared with Purdy (better rusher, worse passer), I think he takes the job since his ceiling scenario is higher. If not, Purdy takes over again. That being said, the NFL isn't fantasy and people have emotions so in practice I'd guess this is very very unlikely

[trc]

+1 4th option, this will be a QB comp in my mind. The caveat being that if Purdy wins the superbowl (like he is the reason, superbowl mvp, etc) then he probably holds the job.

The problem with Purdy is that he simply cannot have Lance's ceiling athletically. I understand that Lance's ceiling scenario is super unlikely at this point, but I think the Niners will want to rule it fully out before giving up on their 3x1st round pick.

If the niners can find a way to handle the personality conflict side of all this (which it feels like they are above average at) I'd guess their ideal scenario is start Lance for 5-6 games next year. If he can show he is a net neutral for this team compared with Purdy (better rusher, worse passer), I think he takes the job since his ceiling scenario is higher. If not, Purdy takes over again. That being said, the NFL isn't fantasy and people have emotions so in practice I'd guess this is very very unlikely

I don't fully understand the bolded part - how can it both be a neutral for the team, and have a higher ceiling?

[olmansmith]

+1 4th option, this will be a QB comp in my mind. The caveat being that if Purdy wins the superbowl (like he is the reason, superbowl mvp, etc) then he probably holds the job.

The problem with Purdy is that he simply cannot have Lance's ceiling athletically. I understand that Lance's ceiling scenario is super unlikely at this point, but I think the Niners will want to rule it fully out before giving up on their 3x1st round pick.

If the niners can find a way to handle the personality conflict side of all this (which it feels like they are above average at) I'd guess their ideal scenario is start Lance for 5-6 games next year. If he can show he is a net neutral for this team compared with Purdy (better rusher, worse passer), I think he takes the job since his ceiling scenario is higher. If not, Purdy takes over again. That being said, the NFL isn't fantasy and people have emotions so in practice I'd guess this is very very unlikely

I don't fully understand the bolded part - how can it both be a neutral for the team, and have a higher ceiling?

If half a season in, Lance is able to make the team operate at a neutral level to what Purdy has been doing (high octane offense, minimized mistakes), I assume that happens via a worse passing game but a better run game. Lance presumably won't be a polished passer that fast.

My assumption is that someone like Lance who is described as high IQ/academic paired with someone like Shanahan should be able to continue to improve as a passer as time goes on. So that means that Lance is able to become a strong pocket passer due to coaching and acumen (aka Purdy's skill set) and add on his mobility to make him even more threatening. On the other hand, Purdy can only really improve as a passer - he can't suddenly become a true mobile QB. That gives the playbook with Lance a higher ceiling.

[Shoreline Steamers]

I take option 4. I think they keep them both in a true QB competition through the offseason. Purdy has been too good not to give him a shot. Bringing Lance in special packages for RPOs and QB keepers while having Purdy run the offense. Seems like the kind of the Shannahan probably dreams about at night. Draft capital, sunk costs, recovering value, distractions...doubt they care much about that.

Kind of been entertaining this possibility myself. If Lance stays in San Fran and Purdy ends up the starter, Lance could become Taysom Hill West, without the TE designation of course.

[hankmurphy]

When Nick Foles won the Super Bowl he didn’t keep the job over an injured Carson Wentz. San Francisco spent a lot of draft capital on Trey Lance.

[Jigga94]

When Nick Foles won the Super Bowl he didn’t keep the job over an injured Carson Wentz. San Francisco spent a lot of draft capital on Trey Lance.

Because we knew who Nick Foles was...

[Buckhill Bombers]

If 49'ers win the SB Lance will become available for trade. They have to recoup some of that draft capitol (but I bet that get less than half of what they spent to acquire him)

[-THE DUDE-]

Praying for Purdy…I legit could not have a starting QB come week 1

[MacDaddy123]

The option I want to select is not there.
I would select "TBD".

IMO, Lance will get another shot from the 49ers UNLESS Purdy WINS a Super Bowl this season.
I think anything short of a Super Bowl victory, 49ers give Lance another chance.

After all, 49ers traded away three 1st round picks to get Lance AFTER Jimmy G lost a Super Bowl.
That is when they knew that Jimmy G could never be THAT guy.

Now IF Purdy wins the Super Bowl this season, Purdy is THAT guy.
Lance is done in SF, and traded away.

[halfbaked88]

The option I want to select is not there.
I would select "TBD".

IMO, Lance will get another shot from the 49ers UNLESS Purdy WINS a Super Bowl this season.
I think anything short of a Super Bowl victory, 49ers give Lance another chance.

After all, 49ers traded away three 1st round picks to get Lance AFTER Jimmy G lost a Super Bowl.
That is when they knew that Jimmy G could never be THAT guy.

Now IF Purdy wins the Super Bowl this season, Purdy is THAT guy.
Lance is done in SF, and traded away.

I agree 100%. It's TBD pending QB camp competition. May the best QB win.

Except I don't think they can trade Lance away even with SB win. It'd be a tough one to swallow, the dead cap money, the sunken 1sts and shelling out more for a competent veteran back-up that would making probably 5x what Purdy makes. What if they sign Jimmy G to be Purdy's back-up

But what's Lance's worth in a trade at this point? A 2nd round pick at best? maybe plus a 3rd+a 5th next year? Coming off injury; not playing football in so long, there's reasons why an NFL team would think his development would be handicapped and not want to take on a project. I could see teams viewing a healthy Anthony Richardson or Will Levis who've played actual football recently as better options and not want to give up a 1st, even a 2nd for Lance (depending on where those other QBs go.)

I'm really trying to be objective and see the reasoning why you would abandon Lance after 4 starts vs. just keeping him around to see what he can do in camp. Let them compete.