Pullo Vision wrote: ↑Wed Nov 30, 2022 5:45 am
If I were to pay up for a stud, what is a good rough rate? As an example, KTC says an early 2023 1st and mid 24 1st is equal to Herbert, and Tua int tmuch more valuable than an early 23 1st. Are those reasonable valuations?
IMO, yes... and...
Yes, they're reasonable. And I doubt it would get it done. For Tua, why would the other team give up a top-6 / 8 / 10 QB -- someone who is young and successful -- to get an early first which may or may not get a top QB prospect who may or may not ever be good?
It's even less likely for Herbert who is a top-3 dynasty QB. Adding a 24 1st that I'm guessing would be late wouldn't move the needle. There's just way too much uncertainty involved at the QB position where uncertainty reigns.
So you'll have to pay.
I know in forums like these it's easy to play with other people's draft picks and say, "trade", "buy", "do this"! But that's exactly what I've done. For my Dynasty Team (team 1 in sig), four weeks ago I was the #1 team by record and by points scored. My QBs at the time were Rodgers, R Wilson, G Smith, Z Wilson, and Mills. I knew it, knew it, knew it: I need someone who could anchor my QB slot not just this season but for the future. It's a 10-team, 2QB, best ball league, and I had no solution. In addition, I *rarely* keep my draft picks since I have been in the playoffs every year -- they're always late, and they're great resources to bolster my playoff runs. Through a trade two years ago, I had a pick that was going to be anywhere from 1.02-1.04 in 2023 (more likely 1.02 than 1.04). Rebuilding teams have been hounding me for months for that pick, and I've turned every offer down (some which were great) for only one reason: it's my best and cheapest chance to get a young, long-term QB. But that comes with the massive uncertainty I laid out above.
In-season, one team surprisingly put up Tua for trade. We talked for about two weeks centered on Tua for 1.03++ (there were many other parts), but this was while there were still real concerns about Tua's availability and concussions. It just made me nervous, and the ++ were not small ancillary pieces. So I pivoted and turned to the Justin Herbert owner, someone surprisingly not in the running this year and while Herbert was struggling with his WRs injured. A LOT of back-and-forth on the Tua deal and on the Herbert deal. In the end, the Tua deal was better "value", but I have some long-term concerns about him, and Herbert is unquestionably in my top-3 QBs for dynasty and top-5 for this year. I just like him a lot better and have much more confidence in him.
So I made a monster deal:
GOT
Herbert
L Murray (when he was still in a time-share)
Meyers
5th-round pick
GAVE
Z Wilson (he was in no jeopardy of losing his job then)
Javonte Williams
Chris Olave
Early 1st
I overpaid. I know it. I know it. And I don't regret it for a second. Obviously, getting out of Z Wilson worked well, but he was really a throw-in at that point. I love Javonte and Olave, and that early 1st is gold. But I can tell you this: I don't know when I EVER would have had a chance to get a QB like Herbert again, and I am so much more optimistic that I can replace young, up-and-coming players like Williams and Olave than I can find another QB like Herbert. I'm also willing to bet the following: over the next 10 years that Herbert is a stud (I hope!!), I would have spent more in value than I did a month ago cycling through rotational QB after rotational QB. Heck, two years ago, it would have taken a 1st to get Tannehill, for example, or last year two firsts to get Cousins. This is much better.
Yup, losing Olave is hard for my '22 championship run, and I don't have much youth at RB with Javonte now gone. Olave would also look great on my team with Kupp being injured. But I wouldn't reverse this trade for a moment.
Final note: I called my friend a month ago who, in the same league, has Mahomes. I asked him what he thought about the potential Herbert deal, and his first reaction was like yours -- too much. By a lot. I then asked if he'd trade me Mahomes for the same package. It took him about two heartbeats to give me an emphatic no. He explained that you just can't find QBs like Mahomes (or Herbert) unless you get lucky with an early pick. So that sealed the deal on my end, and I paid up for Herbert.
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Yes, a first-round pick got Mahomes as a rookie and got Herbert as a rookie. And a first-round pick also got Z Wilson and Trubisky. Feel free to play the rookie game -- really!! If/when you hit, it's a game-changer. I'll pay up for the known quantity.