Waiver Wire Depth

[Pullo Vision]

Running into an issue with dry waivers for QBs. Curious if others have encountered this and, if so, how people handled it.

We're entering year three of one of my SF leagues and depth options at QB are getting hard to find on waivers. It started last year when people were trading late picks for QBs starting 6 games or even fewer. This year, owners began handcuffing their studs like Mahomes, scooping up 3rd and 4th string QBs and even guys on NFL PSs.

I've heard the cheapest time to get a QB is the startup and QB prices go higher after that. Is this a natural progression of that? What's the best way to leverage this? I'd normally say scoop up every QB, but there is a cap on how many can be rostered.

[moishetreats]

What are the roster sizes and QB caps? Something's not adding up if 3rd-stringer and practice squad QBs are rostered and there's a limit to how many QBs you can hold...

[Pullo Vision]

What are the roster sizes and QB caps? Something's not adding up if 3rd-stringer and practice squad QBs are rostered and there's a limit to how many QBs you can hold...

14 team, 40 roster spots, 20 starters includes offense and defense . Start 7 offense includes 1 QB and 1 SF. 4 PS and 7 IR slots. No limit to how many QBs can be on PS or IR, so you can game the max of 6 QBs that can be rostered.

[frerichs5]

Seems like a normal SF league to me. I play several 12 team SF leagues, and there is rarely anyone available on waivers. Just checked one league quick and 57 are rostered. That’s all starters and most backups. You either have to draft rookies, be ready to spend big FAAB should anyone happen to pop on waivers, or be prepared to overpay in a trade.

[Pullo Vision]

Seems like a normal SF league to me. I play several 12 team SF leagues, and there is rarely anyone available on waivers. Just checked one league quick and 57 are rostered. That’s all starters and most backups. You either have to draft rookies, be ready to spend big FAAB should anyone happen to pop on waivers, or be prepared to overpay in a trade.

68 QBs rostered across 14 teams. To give an idea how deep people are digging, guys rostered- Brock Purdy, Carson Strong, Skylar Thompson, Joshua Dobbs People are proactively stashing players (I guess Jimmy G Bridgewater and Brissett could leave as FAs, and Watson maybe might have suspension issues again), so there's rarely production on waivers. Trade offers are, perhaps not coincidentally, crazy off in SF trade calcs.

It feels ridiculous to overpay for a player just because of the position, whether that's drafting them or trading pick/s for them. I'll ask the question about drafting the rookies in the 23 draft thread.

[frerichs5]

Seems like a normal SF league to me. I play several 12 team SF leagues, and there is rarely anyone available on waivers. Just checked one league quick and 57 are rostered. That’s all starters and most backups. You either have to draft rookies, be ready to spend big FAAB should anyone happen to pop on waivers, or be prepared to overpay in a trade.

68 QBs rostered across 14 teams. To give an idea how deep people are digging, guys rostered- Brock Purdy, Carson Strong, Skylar Thompson, Joshua Dobbs People are proactively stashing players (I guess Jimmy G Bridgewater and Brissett could leave as FAs, and Watson maybe might have suspension issues again), so there's rarely production on waivers. Trade offers are, perhaps not coincidentally, crazy off in SF trade calcs.

It feels ridiculous to overpay for a player just because of the position, whether that's drafting them or trading pick/s for them. I'll ask the question about drafting the rookies in the 23 draft thread.

I don’t disagree. Most people won’t trade a QB without getting one back, or a crazy overpay. Just kind of the nature of it in my experience.

The one positive to look at if people are rostering Carson Strong, Josh Dobbs, etc…they are leaving you players at other positions that while still long shots, probably have a better hit rate than those guys.

Looks like we are about the same average QBs per team too.

57/12=4.75 per team
68/14=4.85 per team

[moishetreats]

Yup, that's rough. Though the ratio is similar to a 12-team SF, the raw numbers are brutal. My hunch is that the best course is simply overpaying for one or two young, stud QBs -- whatever it takes -- and then taking a couple of seasons to build around him. Otherwise, you'll always be chasing a QB, possibly spending more over 10 years in the aggregate than you would have this one time to get a young stud.

[Pullo Vision]

Looks like we are about the same average QBs per team too.

57/12=4.75 per team
68/14=4.85 per team

Huh, it does look similar. In the league in question, one team is barely participating. Not even talking about trade responses, they have 2 total QBs- Rodgers and Cooper Rush. Since last year, with teams paying for temporary QB starters, rebuilding owners have been stashing depth guys, presumably in the hope of flipping them. One rebuilder has something like 5 backups, guys like Colt McCoy, Dobbs and Wolford. I kinda don't want to trade for them and reward that behavior, lol.

Yup, that's rough. Though the ratio is similar to a 12-team SF, the raw numbers are brutal. My hunch is that the best course is simply overpaying for one or two young, stud QBs -- whatever it takes -- and then taking a couple of seasons to build around him. Otherwise, you'll always be chasing a QB, possibly spending more over 10 years in the aggregate than you would have this one time to get a young stud.

I've tried both routes, lol. I have a revolving cache of 4ths and 5ths that I've been flipping for QBs. Strategy worked better last year, but now I've got a squad full of Flacco, Mike White, Darnold and Mayfield. I didn't need those roster slots anyways. Hopefully I hit with Fields.

Your suggestion sounds like full on rebuild. I was a top team last year but my WR corps ruined me this year. I've been kinda leaning rebuild and have been accumulating 1s and 2s for 2024. Expect to have the ammo to move up, if I need.

If I were to pay up for a stud, what is a good rough rate? As an example, KTC says an early 2023 1st and mid 24 1st is equal to Herbert, and Tua int tmuch more valuable than an early 23 1st. Are those reasonable valuations?

[frerichs5]

I’m no expert by any means, but I’d have to expect to pay more for a QB like that.

As you’ve experienced, they are hard to come by. Unless you’re at the top of the rookie draft, you’re usually not getting the “better” prospects. If I have Tua, I’m not trading him for a single early 1st because then I just have to turn around and draft another one. Who may be a bust.

I figure an elite QB will cost you roughly the same or slightly more than the elite non-QBs in a single QB league. What would Chase or Jefferson go for, 3 firsts? I’d expect that to be the starting point. Maybe Tua isn’t a quite there yet, and if the Herbert owner is frustrated this year you could get away with a little less.

[moishetreats]

If I were to pay up for a stud, what is a good rough rate? As an example, KTC says an early 2023 1st and mid 24 1st is equal to Herbert, and Tua int tmuch more valuable than an early 23 1st. Are those reasonable valuations?

IMO, yes... and...

Yes, they're reasonable. And I doubt it would get it done. For Tua, why would the other team give up a top-6 / 8 / 10 QB -- someone who is young and successful -- to get an early first which may or may not get a top QB prospect who may or may not ever be good?

It's even less likely for Herbert who is a top-3 dynasty QB. Adding a 24 1st that I'm guessing would be late wouldn't move the needle. There's just way too much uncertainty involved at the QB position where uncertainty reigns.

So you'll have to pay.

I know in forums like these it's easy to play with other people's draft picks and say, "trade", "buy", "do this"! But that's exactly what I've done. For my Dynasty Team (team 1 in sig), four weeks ago I was the #1 team by record and by points scored. My QBs at the time were Rodgers, R Wilson, G Smith, Z Wilson, and Mills. I knew it, knew it, knew it: I need someone who could anchor my QB slot not just this season but for the future. It's a 10-team, 2QB, best ball league, and I had no solution. In addition, I *rarely* keep my draft picks since I have been in the playoffs every year -- they're always late, and they're great resources to bolster my playoff runs. Through a trade two years ago, I had a pick that was going to be anywhere from 1.02-1.04 in 2023 (more likely 1.02 than 1.04). Rebuilding teams have been hounding me for months for that pick, and I've turned every offer down (some which were great) for only one reason: it's my best and cheapest chance to get a young, long-term QB. But that comes with the massive uncertainty I laid out above.

In-season, one team surprisingly put up Tua for trade. We talked for about two weeks centered on Tua for 1.03++ (there were many other parts), but this was while there were still real concerns about Tua's availability and concussions. It just made me nervous, and the ++ were not small ancillary pieces. So I pivoted and turned to the Justin Herbert owner, someone surprisingly not in the running this year and while Herbert was struggling with his WRs injured. A LOT of back-and-forth on the Tua deal and on the Herbert deal. In the end, the Tua deal was better "value", but I have some long-term concerns about him, and Herbert is unquestionably in my top-3 QBs for dynasty and top-5 for this year. I just like him a lot better and have much more confidence in him.

So I made a monster deal:

GOT
Herbert
L Murray (when he was still in a time-share)
Meyers
5th-round pick

GAVE
Z Wilson (he was in no jeopardy of losing his job then)
Javonte Williams
Chris Olave
Early 1st

I overpaid. I know it. I know it. And I don't regret it for a second. Obviously, getting out of Z Wilson worked well, but he was really a throw-in at that point. I love Javonte and Olave, and that early 1st is gold. But I can tell you this: I don't know when I EVER would have had a chance to get a QB like Herbert again, and I am so much more optimistic that I can replace young, up-and-coming players like Williams and Olave than I can find another QB like Herbert. I'm also willing to bet the following: over the next 10 years that Herbert is a stud (I hope!!), I would have spent more in value than I did a month ago cycling through rotational QB after rotational QB. Heck, two years ago, it would have taken a 1st to get Tannehill, for example, or last year two firsts to get Cousins. This is much better.

Yup, losing Olave is hard for my '22 championship run, and I don't have much youth at RB with Javonte now gone. Olave would also look great on my team with Kupp being injured. But I wouldn't reverse this trade for a moment.

Final note: I called my friend a month ago who, in the same league, has Mahomes. I asked him what he thought about the potential Herbert deal, and his first reaction was like yours -- too much. By a lot. I then asked if he'd trade me Mahomes for the same package. It took him about two heartbeats to give me an emphatic no. He explained that you just can't find QBs like Mahomes (or Herbert) unless you get lucky with an early pick. So that sealed the deal on my end, and I paid up for Herbert.

-------

Yes, a first-round pick got Mahomes as a rookie and got Herbert as a rookie. And a first-round pick also got Z Wilson and Trubisky. Feel free to play the rookie game -- really!! If/when you hit, it's a game-changer. I'll pay up for the known quantity.

[Pullo Vision]

Thanks on the value range ideas for elite QBs. The thought that Tua would be worth an early 1st threw me, but KTC seems to be biased towards picks. Definitely reinforces the idea that some tools may not adequately reflect QB values in SF if used certain ways. What good tools/resources for SF leagues are out there, besides this sub forum?

The Herbert deal is interesting. Without getting into the side pieces and diving into one of my quirks not relevant to the discussion, the previous attempts to get Cousins and Tannehill put that deal into perspective. I was quoted prices of a 2nd round pick and up for QBs who were temporary starters, so I know where you're coming from.

Ignoring Z Wilson and Javonte for the moment, Olave and an early 1st for Herbert is a hell of a deal. I see the process of bundling assets with a top tier dynasty WR to address the QB position long term.

I've been playing SF a few years but haven't really dug into the theory of it. For the last week, this discussion here has led me to keep reformulating a new SF strategy in this league. Since my "paper over the QB" strategy ain't working too good, attacking this from another angle.

1- Since paying for two elite QBs is generally VERY expensive, do you prefer to have one tentpole elite QB1 and a lesser QB2 or two decent QB1s? Do you prefer one stud and wing it at SF, or you prefer a good 2nd QB, even if that costs you value at QB1? Something like Mahomes/Goff or Carr/Prescott.

2- What's the value of handcuffing your QB1? Is that a common practice?

3- What kind of value do QBs have who could, year to year, find themselves a backup one year or the starter (though perhaps placeholder) the next? I'm thinking guys like Jimmy G, Wentz, Keenum, Ryan, Brissett. Geno might qualify as well. Are they stashes you hold like RB handcuffs?

4- I seem to recall reading that QBs drafted in the 1st round by the NFL aren't a sure thing and after the 1st, the hit rate is terrible. Even if they get a sustained run of game starts (like Davis Mills), no guarantees after years 1 and 2. Is there an article that goes into that somewhere in the depths of the internet, or is that completely off?

[Pullo Vision]

To the Herbert offer- someone got this offer in a 12 team SF- Herbert for AJB, Kelce and a 23 2nd. The team still has Mahomes, Allen and Dak.

[zaner75]

Scott Connor has a roster construction series on podcast (Destination Dynasty) where he goes though each position for his preferred roster build. All of it is incredible but the QB episode (November 28 - https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/t ... 0587712796) may contain information to help you formulate how you want to address your QB situation.

[moishetreats]

1- Since paying for two elite QBs is generally VERY expensive, do you prefer to have one tentpole elite QB1 and a lesser QB2 or two decent QB1s? Do you prefer one stud and wing it at SF, or you prefer a good 2nd QB, even if that costs you value at QB1? Something like Mahomes/Goff or Carr/Prescott.

2- What's the value of handcuffing your QB1? Is that a common practice?

3- What kind of value do QBs have who could, year to year, find themselves a backup one year or the starter (though perhaps placeholder) the next? I'm thinking guys like Jimmy G, Wentz, Keenum, Ryan, Brissett. Geno might qualify as well. Are they stashes you hold like RB handcuffs?

4- I seem to recall reading that QBs drafted in the 1st round by the NFL aren't a sure thing and after the 1st, the hit rate is terrible. Even if they get a sustained run of game starts (like Davis Mills), no guarantees after years 1 and 2. Is there an article that goes into that somewhere in the depths of the internet, or is that completely off?

I love these questions. Here are my thoughts.

1. Two QB1s. Definitely. Definitely definitely. Two elite-upside QB1s can carry you to a win and cover for other holes. And it's easier to find good productive players at other positions than at QB, especially on the waiver wire.

2. None, IMO. I'd only roster a backup QB if he has standalone value. So, yes on Huntley, Love, etc. No on, say, Purdy before yesterday.

3. Absolutely! I like D'Ernest Johnson as an RB stash for 2023. What's the realistic range of outcomes even if he does get a situation upgrade? Maaaaaybe an RB2, tops? Maybe....? But what if one of those QBs gets a starting gig? If nothing else, they'll command more in a trade.

4. You're on track with this. And I think it's pretty similar at WR, too.

[MacDaddy123]

Just counted the QB's in my 12 team SF league, 74 QB's are rostered.
That is an average of over 6 QB's per team.