2023 SF 1.01 pick value

[MacDaddy123]

I am in a 12 team Dynasty SF TEP league, currently 0-20, as my roster is VERY young.
For example, Pitts is my TE, WR's are Treylon Burks, Jameson Williams, George Pickens, Skyy Moore, Rondale Moore, Jahan Dotson, etc.
QB's TLaw, Zach Wilson, Deshaun Watson (alright, not so young), Kenny Pickett.

Anyway, I am well on my way to pick 1.01 in 2023, and for me, right now that looks like Bijan Robinson.
Now Bijan is the most ballyhooed RB candidate since Saquon Barkley in 2018, so my question is what do you think that pick value is worth now, or just prior to the 2023 draft?

Like do you think I could get Ja'Marr Chase for Bijan Robinson?
Or could I get three 1sts for Bijan? Maybe two 23 1sts and a 24 1st?

I realize this is a bit early to be talking about the 2023 draft, but when you are 0-20, you have to have something to look forward to.

[ESKAY]

I think that he becomes around pick 5 in a start up. So you would have to add a little to get Chase and 3 firsts seems about right to me. The gamble for me is his landing spot. If he goes somewhere juicy then 3 firsts is the minimum for me. But if he goes somewhere there is a starter and he shares carries to start then his price goes down. The problem for me is there are so many good RBs that are free agents this year. So there is going to be so much shuffling around and don’t forget about 7 more good rookies coming in with Bijan.

[BigBawseRoss]

if i can get 3 firsts i take that, best is if you can get 1 solid player and 2 firsts. even if you miss on the picks you know you got one solid asset at minimum

[Gator Sens]

The 1.01 is already worth a ton based on the class hype and the value will only go up. If/when multiple op end prospects test well, the rookie craze will get into full swing and who knows what kind of options will come your way on the market. It's way too early to guess what is going to happen with the pick and the value but it will certainly increase. Sit on the pick and shop it post-combine and draft just to see what your options are.

Think back to what managers in your league offered for the rights to draft Barkley and you will probably have similar options.

[MacDaddy123]

I think that he becomes around pick 5 in a start up. So you would have to add a little to get Chase and 3 firsts seems about right to me. The gamble for me is his landing spot. If he goes somewhere juicy then 3 firsts is the minimum for me. But if he goes somewhere there is a starter and he shares carries to start then his price goes down. The problem for me is there are so many good RBs that are free agents this year. So there is going to be so much shuffling around and don’t forget about 7 more good rookies coming in with Bijan.

Maybe, but I am also hearing buzz that Chase will require off-season surgery for the torn labrum, so that may have his value take a hit possibly.

[MacDaddy123]

The 1.01 is already worth a ton based on the class hype and the value will only go up. If/when multiple op end prospects test well, the rookie craze will get into full swing and who knows what kind of options will come your way on the market. It's way too early to guess what is going to happen with the pick and the value but it will certainly increase. Sit on the pick and shop it post-combine and draft just to see what your options are.

Think back to what managers in your league offered for the rights to draft Barkley and you will probably have similar options.

That is a good idea, unfortunately I didn't start playing Dynasty until 2019, so I don't know about the Barkley buzz.

This league I am in just started in 2022, and after I picked Deshaun Watson in round 4 of the startup, I realized that my team would not be competitive in 2022. Watson in round 4 was too good of value to pass on in SF , IMO, so now I just have to be patient.

12 team SF TEP IDP. So for the rest of the startup draft I just loaded up on young and injured players like Jameson Williams, Chase Young, etc.
Then traded away a couple of my early picks, Javonte Williams and Michael Pittman, for future draft capital.

So I knew going into week 1 that I probably had the 2023 1.01 pick sewn up.
Now sitting at 0-20, just starting to think about the draft.
I do realize that the value of that pick will go up a lot after the combine and the NFL Draft, which is why I have not sent or received any offers at this point in time.

Though after watching Breece and Javonte go down, I'd be lying if I said that a possible injury to Bijan did not concern me.
That 1.01 pick value could drop if Bijan gets injured, IMO.

Thanks for your input!

[j4pac]

I would probably trade out of the value is there. I don’t believe in getting RBs until you have a base at WR/QB. I’m not sure you’re there. I’d want t until after the combine but then look into the elite QBs and WRs. 1.01 and one of your WRs could potentially get Allen/Chase/Jefferson. It’s not impossible.

[MacDaddy123]

I would probably trade out of the value is there. I don’t believe in getting RBs until you have a base at WR/QB. I’m not sure you’re there. I’d want t until after the combine but then look into the elite QBs and WRs. 1.01 and one of your WRs could potentially get Allen/Chase/Jefferson. It’s not impossible.

That is my thinking, as I think my team is too young for RB's yet.
Much more interested in seeing what I can get for Bijan.

However, I will draft Bijan at 1.01 if no one is interested.
I can't pass on the most valuable piece in the draft just due to roster construction.

[Dynasty DeLorean]

I don’t buy the theory that you shouldn’t add young stud rbs to a rebuilding team. Young stud rbs is what takes a rebuild team and turns it into a competitive team.

What you can get for the 1.01 completely depends on your league. I had 1.01 (TLaw) and I couldn’t get much of anything to trade back. If someone hands you the bag, sure. If not, I’d just hold probably.

Also, adding to the 1.01 to get Chase? Mehhhh idk about that. Chase > 1.01 unless his injury is going to cause problems next year, which it seems it won’t?

[FantasyFreak]

Good chance Bijan is worth more than Chase in a few months, whether people like it or not. He's already Dynasty RB 1 for some. His combine will really have some influence on it.

[SteveMaddensShoes]

I don’t buy the theory that you shouldn’t add young stud rbs to a rebuilding team. Young stud rbs is what takes a rebuild team and turns it into a competitive team.

What you can get for the 1.01 completely depends on your league. I had 1.01 (TLaw) and I couldn’t get much of anything to trade back. If someone hands you the bag, sure. If not, I’d just hold probably.

Also, adding to the 1.01 to get Chase? Mehhhh idk about that. Chase > 1.01 unless his injury is going to cause problems next year, which it seems it won’t?

I kind of agree. It’s normally easier to flip a Bijan/Barkley prospect a few games in. A little riskier but normally a higher return than just trying to turn he 1.01 into 3 1sts. And actually difficult to land 3 1sts for wrs you grab at 1.01. And qbs have nearly 50% bust rate even at 1.01. Or maybe not bust rate but won’t return 3 1sts. Guys like Bijan are so likely to bet you three 1sts down the road because of their low bust rate.

[TheBelgian]

I don’t buy the theory that you shouldn’t add young stud rbs to a rebuilding team. Young stud rbs is what takes a rebuild team and turns it into a competitive team.

What you can get for the 1.01 completely depends on your league. I had 1.01 (TLaw) and I couldn’t get much of anything to trade back. If someone hands you the bag, sure. If not, I’d just hold probably.

Also, adding to the 1.01 to get Chase? Mehhhh idk about that. Chase > 1.01 unless his injury is going to cause problems next year, which it seems it won’t?

You are correct, but you're not winning the title without a good QB and WR room (assuming we leave anomolies out of the conversation). Why would you grab the good RBs before you have the WRs or/and the QBs? RBs have a shorter shelf life, which gives you a shorter window to attain the QBs and/or the WRs while you currently have the good RBs on your roster. RBs are much easier to "hit" on than WRs and you dont have to wait for RBs to put up good fantasy numbers. I highly recommend figuring out the QB and WR room before acquiring RBs becasue of this issue. I understand there are many ways to win the title, but I'm not here to just contend for 2 years and hope I get 1 title. I'm here to contend for 4 or 5 years and get a chance at multiple titles. I only share this becasue I speak from experience. It is frustrating to have QB, RB and TE ready for a championship run only to miss on my WR prospects or have to wait for a "breakout year". The team is a fringe playoff team, which doesn't help draft position and my RBs and TE start aging.

[Dynasty DeLorean]

I don’t buy the theory that you shouldn’t add young stud rbs to a rebuilding team. Young stud rbs is what takes a rebuild team and turns it into a competitive team.

What you can get for the 1.01 completely depends on your league. I had 1.01 (TLaw) and I couldn’t get much of anything to trade back. If someone hands you the bag, sure. If not, I’d just hold probably.

Also, adding to the 1.01 to get Chase? Mehhhh idk about that. Chase > 1.01 unless his injury is going to cause problems next year, which it seems it won’t?

You are correct, but you're not winning the title without a good QB and WR room (assuming we leave anomolies out of the conversation). Why would you grab the good RBs before you have the WRs or/and the QBs? RBs have a shorter shelf life, which gives you a shorter window to attain the QBs and/or the WRs while you currently have the good RBs on your roster. RBs are much easier to "hit" on than WRs and you dont have to wait for RBs to put up good fantasy numbers. I highly recommend figuring out the QB and WR room before acquiring RBs becasue of this issue. I understand there are many ways to win the title, but I'm not here to just contend for 2 years and hope I get 1 title. I'm here to contend for 4 or 5 years and get a chance at multiple titles. I only share this becasue I speak from experience. It is frustrating to have QB, RB and TE ready for a championship run only to miss on my WR prospects or have to wait for a "breakout year". The team is a fringe playoff team, which doesn't help draft position and my RBs and TE start aging.

Young stud RBs are inherently harder to come by. There are less of them in the nfl, they go higher in rookie drafts and nobody wants to trade them away. Let’s say you are rebuilding and draft a stud rb and your team does better and now you’re drafting in the middle of the 1st on your rebuild, well that’s the perfect spot to grab a promising qb or wr prospect. I can tell you what you WONT find at that spot. A can’t miss stud rb like a Saquon, a JT, a Breece, Bijan. They almost always go top 2 picks. Top tier WRs, QBs and TEs ALWAYS fall in rookie drafts EVERY year because people can’t help themselves from drafting middling rbs early-mid 1st round of rookie drafts.

QBs in SF are great but unless they’re elite they’re not really helping you win anything. And it’s kind of hard to identify which rookie qb is going to turn out to be elite or not, whereas rb it’s much easier to identify. You’re much better off trading for a Carr, Cousins or Geno when you’re ready to compete. You can trade for a productive un-sexy wr and it won’t cost you too much when you’re ready to compete. But try to trade for a rb with a pulse? Good luck, EVERYONE wants an overpay.

[FantasyFreak]

I don’t buy the theory that you shouldn’t add young stud rbs to a rebuilding team. Young stud rbs is what takes a rebuild team and turns it into a competitive team.

What you can get for the 1.01 completely depends on your league. I had 1.01 (TLaw) and I couldn’t get much of anything to trade back. If someone hands you the bag, sure. If not, I’d just hold probably.

Also, adding to the 1.01 to get Chase? Mehhhh idk about that. Chase > 1.01 unless his injury is going to cause problems next year, which it seems it won’t?

You are correct, but you're not winning the title without a good QB and WR room (assuming we leave anomolies out of the conversation). Why would you grab the good RBs before you have the WRs or/and the QBs? RBs have a shorter shelf life, which gives you a shorter window to attain the QBs and/or the WRs while you currently have the good RBs on your roster. RBs are much easier to "hit" on than WRs and you dont have to wait for RBs to put up good fantasy numbers. I highly recommend figuring out the QB and WR room before acquiring RBs becasue of this issue. I understand there are many ways to win the title, but I'm not here to just contend for 2 years and hope I get 1 title. I'm here to contend for 4 or 5 years and get a chance at multiple titles. I only share this becasue I speak from experience. It is frustrating to have QB, RB and TE ready for a championship run only to miss on my WR prospects or have to wait for a "breakout year". The team is a fringe playoff team, which doesn't help draft position and my RBs and TE start aging.

Looking at the OP's team, there are a lot of good young WR's who have a chance to put up good numbers in Bijan's prime. I would take Bijan, I think he could turn that team into one that is a lot better. I agree with DD, and taking 3 firsts for Bijan, I shy away from, due to Bijan's profile. I'd add the young star RB to that WR corps and look to improve around that.

[dblj1199]

This is a straight up hold here. Every year when the draft rolls around the value of the dynasty picks increases. Until the NFL draft unfolds and we see where everyone lands I'm simply holding unless someone REALLY over pays for the pick now.