Jameson Williams Thread

[gpaok]

I didn’t see this so thought to start one - last news I read was that he was ahead of schedule on Sept 1st.

Anyone know/read anything on his ACL recovery? I am assuming it’s still post week 6 (BYE)?

[CGW]

Last report I saw said he wouldn't be designated to return until after their bye in week 6. Week 7 always seemed like the earliest we would see him.

[Jigga94]

I picked him expecting 0 this year. Seeing the field and practicing will be encouraging enough and hopefully a strong building block for 23

[FantasyFreak]

I picked him expecting 0 this year. Seeing the field and practicing will be encouraging enough and hopefully a strong building block for 23

The guy tore his ACL in January, I'd actually not want to see him at all this year, as someone who picked him.

[Dynasty DeLorean]

Since 1995 there have been 8 1st round WR's that have played in 8 or less games as a rookie. Those names are;

Kevin White
Ike Hilliard
N'Keal Harry
Marcus Nash
Josh Doctson
Charles Rogers
Santana Moss
Yatil Green

Santana Moss is the ONLY hit of the group. You REALLY don't want "a zero" from Jameson this year.

[FantasyFreak]

Since 1995 there have been 8 1st round WR's that have played in 8 or less games as a rookie. Those names are;

Kevin White
Ike Hilliard
N'Keal Harry
Marcus Nash
Josh Doctson
Charles Rogers
Santana Moss
Yatil Green

Santana Moss is the ONLY hit of the group. You REALLY don't want "a zero" from Jameson this year.

Yep. Certainly don't want him playing more than 8, that's for sure. I think the list here is largely due to the fact some guys just weren't good, or like White and Doctson, had a litany of injuries as well as not being good. Rogers, well we know the story there. Harry can't separate, not worried about that for Williams.

[Jigga94]

I picked him expecting 0 this year. Seeing the field and practicing will be encouraging enough and hopefully a strong building block for 23

The guy tore his ACL in January, I'd actually not want to see him at all this year, as someone who picked him.

Yeah obviously if he's not ready, 0 reason for Detroit to rush him in. Just saying that we probably do see him on the field this season. If so, I won't be expecting any type of numbers from him still. A redshirt type year

[CGW]

Since 1995 there have been 8 1st round WR's that have played in 8 or less games as a rookie. Those names are;

Kevin White
Ike Hilliard
N'Keal Harry
Marcus Nash
Josh Doctson
Charles Rogers
Santana Moss
Yatil Green

Santana Moss is the ONLY hit of the group. You REALLY don't want "a zero" from Jameson this year.

Is one out of eight more or less than the rate of 1st round hits overall?

[Dynasty DeLorean]

Since 1995 there have been 8 1st round WR's that have played in 8 or less games as a rookie. Those names are;

Kevin White
Ike Hilliard
N'Keal Harry
Marcus Nash
Josh Doctson
Charles Rogers
Santana Moss
Yatil Green

Santana Moss is the ONLY hit of the group. You REALLY don't want "a zero" from Jameson this year.

Is one out of eight more or less than the rate of 1st round hits overall?

Good question.

So from what i can see, there have been 95 1st round WR's drafted from 1995-2019. 25 of those were hits [3+ 1k yard receiving seasons] for a hit rate of 26%. If you only take those that played 9+ games in their rookie season, you get a 28% hit rate. If you take those that played less than 9 games their rookie season you get a 10% hit rate. Those 10 are the names listed above plus John Ross and A.J. Jenkins, with the only hit being Santana Moss. Not sure why those names didn't pop up before, the stathead search function can be a little confusing at times

If we look at only top 10 draft selections, there have been a total of 36. Of those, 32 have played in 9+ games as a rookie and 4 have played in 8 or less games as a rookie. All 4 of the players that played in 8 or less games as a rookie busted (Kevin White, John Ross, Charles Rogers, Ike Hilliard).

Just for fun I looked up 2nd round WRs and basically the hit rate gets cut in half from the 1st round Wr's. Kind of surprising but 3rd round WRs hit at the same rate as 2nd round WRs? Can that possibly be correct? Looks like the best bang for your buck in rookie drafts is 3rd round wr's apparently.


Hit rate
-- 33% -- 1st round WRs | Drafted top 10 [12 of 36]
-- 28% -- 1st round WRs | 9+ games as a rookie [24 of 85]
-- 26% -- 1st round WRs [25 of 95]
-- 22% -- 1st round WRs | Drafted with picks 11-32 [13 of 59]
-- 12% -- 2nd round WRs [13 of 113]
-- 11% -- 3rd round WRs [12 of 105]
-- 10% -- 1st round WRs | < 9 games as a rookie [1 of 10]
--- 4% -- 7th round WRs [4 of 100]
--- 3% -- 5th round WRs [3 of 87]
--- 2% -- 4th round WRs [2 of 105]
--- 1% -- 6th round WRs [1 of 94]

____________________________________
*Hit = 3+ 1k yard receiving seasons
____________________________________


I'll post just the draft rounds so it's easier to see;

Hit rate
-- 26% -- 1st round WRs [25 of 95]

-- 12% -- 2nd round WRs [13 of 113]
-- 11% -- 3rd round WRs [12 of 105]

--- 2% -- 4th round WRs [2 of 105]
--- 3% -- 5th round WRs [3 of 87]
--- 1% -- 6th round WRs [1 of 94]
--- 4% -- 7th round WRs [4 of 100]


- Looks like there are really 3 main tiers [Day 1, Day 2, and Day 3], and the draft round order within a tier doesn't really make a difference in terms of getting a stud.

- It should be noted that there are several 2nd round WRs that could still be hits and elevate the 2nd round hit percentage. AJB, Deebo, DK, Sutton, and Juju would be the top names. Also several 3rd round WRs such as McLaurin, Kupp, Godwin, and Diontae Johnson. The only realistic names to reach "stud" status remaining from Round 1 would be Mike Williams, Marquise Brown and Calvin Ridley.

___________________________________________

Did a little more digging. Numbers may not be exact because like i said the search function on stathead is a little wonky. But should be close enough.

Hit Rate
-- 28% -- 1st round WRs | 9+ games as a rookie [24 of 85]
-- 10% -- 1st round WRs | < 9 games as a rookie [1 of 10]

-- 12% -- 2nd round WRs | 9+ games as a rookie [11 of 93]
-- 12% -- 2nd round WRs | < 9 games as a rookie [2 of 17]

-- 16% -- 3rd round WRs | 9+ games as a rookie [12 of 73]
--- 0% -- 3rd round WRs | < 9 games as a rookie [0 of 30]


You can see the 2nd and 3rd round totals are like a player or two short of the totals above (110 as opposed to 113 for 2nd rnd WRs, and 103 as opposed to 105 for 3rd round WRs). Idk the reason for this. If I search 9 or more games played, and then 8 or less games played, I get a total of both right. But if I search all rookies that year for a particular round, disregarding games played, I get a few stragglers. Not sure the reason for this. Whatever i'm tired, i'm sure it's fine.

[Anteaters]

Since 1995 there have been 8 1st round WR's that have played in 8 or less games as a rookie. Those names are;

Kevin White
Ike Hilliard
N'Keal Harry
Marcus Nash
Josh Doctson
Charles Rogers
Santana Moss
Yatil Green

Santana Moss is the ONLY hit of the group. You REALLY don't want "a zero" from Jameson this year.

Is one out of eight more or less than the rate of 1st round hits overall?

A WHOLE LOT OF GREAT STUFF!

thank you

[CGW]

Thanks for that info DD, very useful as always. Heres to hoping "this time is different" since he was the only one who sustained his injury in college rather his rookie season.

[ericanadian]

Since 1995 there have been 8 1st round WR's that have played in 8 or less games as a rookie. Those names are;

Kevin White
Ike Hilliard
N'Keal Harry
Marcus Nash
Josh Doctson
Charles Rogers
Santana Moss
Yatil Green

Santana Moss is the ONLY hit of the group. You REALLY don't want "a zero" from Jameson this year.

It’s funny.. I had always thought of Ike Hilliard as a respectable receiver, but he really only had two seasons that were anywhere near decent.

[Cameron Giles]

Easiest point: If you miss a lot of time, it's harder catching up to game speed.

I don't know if I would just sell Jameson if he isn't in position to play a certain amount of games, but I definitely agree that a 0 is the last thing you want. He has to get some level of meaningful game reps.

[gpaok]

If his stud status is a function of number of games played - returning on week 7 gives him 11 games he bumped his odds by +18%.

From the other thread I like though from DD (Rookie WR Production 202x) - what he does is more important and his production will most likely suffer for 2 reasons:
1) almost every rookie struggles first few games
2) returning from ACL injuries means slow first few games

What I will say however is that, how soon (assuming it happens week 7) he is returning given the injury is a great sign on both his work ethic and extent of injury. If his work ethic was terrible doesn’t matter how much he plays this year, and if he takes longer to return is also a bad sign on longevity.

[Ruggenater]

If the Lions defense can keep up their current level of play, then there will be plenty of opportunity for Jameson when he gets back