Rookie WR Production 2022

[Dynasty DeLorean]

2022 Report
2022 Year End Update Post

2021 Report
2021 Year End Update Post

2020 Report
2020 Year End Update Post


Sample size is small so we'll be seeing large swings / high variance. Last year (i'm looking at Week 5) and of the 4 listed at the top only 2 stayed there for the duration, with several others moving up during the season. But early results are that we might want to consider Olave, Wilson, London as pretty safe bets and start to get a little worried about the rest. Alec Pierce a surprise sleeper here.

Kind of interesting for as many fantasy points as Dotson has put up, it's a little misleading with td's as opposed to yards and receptions. I also saw a blurb that he's not getting as open on his routes as his td numbers would indicate.

Also just a reminder, players who don't play a minimum of at least 9 games their rookie year FOR WHATEVER REASON tend to bust at a ridiculous rate. Jameson Williams red flag depending on when he is able to play. The thought process of "well i don't care what he does his rookie year i drafted him for year 2 and beyond" is a faulty one, imo.



Update For Week 4

67+ Rookie Reception Yards per Game
90% Stud
90% Good or better
Chris Olave [83] [PFF GRADE: 78.1]

57-66 Rookie Reception Yards per Game
50% Stud
57-69% Good or better
Garrett Wilson [63] [PFF GRADE: 75.2]
Drake London [57] [PFF GRADE: 83]


47-56 Rookie Reception Yards per Game
38% Stud
57-69% Good or better
Alec Pierce [47] [PFF GRADE: 65.3]


--------------------

Less than 47
2-10% Stud
4-24% Good or better
Romeo Doubs [46] [PFF GRADE: 66.3]
George Pickens [41] [PFF GRADE: 64.4]
Jahan Dotson [38] [PFF GRADE: 65.9]
Treylon Burks [32] [PFF GRADE: 64.2]
Kyle Philips [23]
Christian Watson [17] [PFF GRADE: 56.5]
Skyy Moore [15]
David Bell [11] [PFF GRADE: 61.1]
Khalil Shakir [11]
+17 others...


---------------------------------------------------
*Stud = 3+ seasons of 1k+ receiving yards
*Good = 3+ seasons 750+ receiving yards
*Based on 1995-2015 sample
*Minimum of 9 games played
*PFF Grade = PFF Receiving Grade
--------------------------------------------------


______________________________________

This is overall hit rate by draft round for WR from 1995-2019. This is not part of the Rookie WR Report, just some additional information.

Hit rate
-- 26% -- 1st round WRs [25 of 95]

-- 12% -- 2nd round WRs [13 of 113]
-- 11% -- 3rd round WRs [12 of 105]

--- 2% -- 4th round WRs [2 of 105]
--- 3% -- 5th round WRs [3 of 87]
--- 1% -- 6th round WRs [1 of 94]
--- 4% -- 7th round WRs [4 of 100]


- Looks like there are really 3 main tiers [Day 1, Day 2, and Day 3], and the draft round order within a tier doesn't really make a difference in terms of getting a stud.

- It should be noted that there are several 2nd round WRs that could still be hits and elevate the 2nd round hit percentage. AJB, Deebo, DK, Sutton, and Juju would be the top names. Also several 3rd round WRs such as McLaurin, Kupp, Godwin, and Diontae Johnson. The only realistic names to reach "stud" status remaining from Round 1 would be Mike Williams, Marquise Brown and Calvin Ridley.

*A "hit" is 3+ 1k yard receiving seasons
_____________________________________

[StripesOfKC]

I’ve been saying that I think Dotson is a sneaky sell if you can get someone who just looks at fantasy point totals and not the high TD rate but I didn’t realize Alec Pierce had more yards per game than him

I do however think that at this point in the year their PFF grades might be a more useful data point

[Dynasty DeLorean]

I’ve been saying that I think Dotson is a sneaky sell if you can get someone who just looks at fantasy point totals and not the high TD rate but I didn’t realize Alec Pierce had more yards per game than him

I do however think that at this point in the year their PFF grades might be a more useful data point

Yeah, i was surprised as well.

PFF grades are neat but it's unclear how useful they would be at this stage. You can look back at the 2021 reports where i listed the PFF Grade next to the receiver each week. Just now I went back to Week 12. Waddle is at a 63, Devonta Smith 57, Elijah Moore 46, ARSB 32... 32!!! Anything under a 60 is pretty poor, and 63 is... still kinda poor lol. But I guess you could argue that in comparison to the rest of the receivers they were high.

Also, often I find that PFF Grades tend to mirror results/production. You can go back to any week last year and the pff grades essentially mirrored the ypg production. Their thing is, it's not supposed to... but from what i've been seeing it tends to. Go to week 12. The grades literally mirror ypg production. You can spotlight ARSB's grades mirroring his production last year as a prime example of this imo. He was graded as a turd player through 12 weeks (32), yet ended the year over 80. It's unrealistic to believe, given what we know now, that he played like a turd for 11 weeks then played the opposite of that for the rest of the season.

All that said, if anyone wants to send the PFF RECEIVING grades for any rookies in my direction, be my guest.

[Cameron Giles]

I don't have a full list:

London - 79.8
Olave - 76
Wilson - 74.6
Burks - 65
Pickens - 64.9
Dotson - 63.7

[j4pac]

Alec Pierce is a sneaky buy. He’s been productive in spite of a bad situation. Elite athleticism. 2nd round draft capital. Let’s be real…if he wasn’t white he’d be much more highly regarded right now.

[Jigga94]

I love these threads. I already knew Olaves number and I'm so pumped. To the moon!

Pierce hanging on with 7 catches in 3 games haha

[Cameron Giles]

Alec Pierce is a sneaky buy. He’s been productive in spite of a bad situation. Elite athleticism. 2nd round draft capital. Let’s be real…if he wasn’t white he’d be much more highly regarded right now.

- Late declare
- Below-average college production
- Limited route tree
- Bad conference
+ Good athletic profile
+ Big play ability
+ 19-year-old breakout
+ Good draft capital

Whenever I watched him, it just seemed like everything was contested or on a go route. I question his separation skills. He kind of looks like Denzel Mims, but I thought Mims had better college tape. But, he's making big plays, has a strong aDOT (13.3) and Matt Ryan is giving him chances.

I think if I had Pierce, I'd be poking around to see if I can flip for a better prospect who might be off to a rough start.

[dynastyninja]

I think this will be way more useful after 5-10 more games. Sample size is just too small to draw any conclusions.

I'd also challenge anyone using this as a knock on Dotson. He's got major target competition and a subpar QB. He's been very impressive so far.

[Jigga94]

Alec Pierce is a sneaky buy. He’s been productive in spite of a bad situation. Elite athleticism. 2nd round draft capital. Let’s be real…if he wasn’t white he’d be much more highly regarded right now.

- Late declare
- Below-average college production
- Limited route tree
- Bad conference
+ Good athletic profile
+ Big play ability
+ 19-year-old breakout
+ Good draft capital

Whenever I watched him, it just seemed like everything was contested or on a go route. I question his separation skills. He kind of looks like Denzel Mims, but I thought Mims had better college tape. But, he's making big plays, has a strong aDOT (13.3) and Matt Ryan is giving him chances.

I think if I had Pierce, I'd be poking around to see if I can flip for a better prospect who might be off to a rough start.

Pierce is tough for me too. I was pretty low on him but after those first 9 or so rookie WR this year, there wasn't much else.

I thought it was just me that saw so many contested catches with Pierce in college. Seemed like he was always relying on size to win 50-50 balls against guys much smaller than him. I didn't think that would translate but he does have the physical and athletic tools to win still.

[gpaok]

One of my favorite posts from last year updated for 22

I agree more weeks will be needed but you already see - 1) the separation, 2) for a player to jump from the lower ranks some huge games which only ARSB had from what I recall from last year and E Moore had some flashes.

DD, how long does it take for them to become studs? Would you put E Moore in the dud category with this years production or is it still early?

[BabyChark23]

2021 Report
2021 Year End Update Post

2020 Report
2020 Year End Update Post


Sample size is small so we'll be seeing large swings / high variance. Last year (i'm looking at Week 5) and of the 4 listed at the top only 2 stayed there for the duration, with several others moving up during the season. But early results are that we might want to consider Olave, Wilson, London as pretty safe bets and start to get a little worried about the rest. Alec Pierce a surprise sleeper here.

Kind of interesting for as many fantasy points as Dotson has put up, it's a little misleading with td's as opposed to yards and receptions. I also saw a blurb that he's not getting as open on his routes as his td numbers would indicate.

Also just a reminder, players who don't play a minimum of at least 9 games their rookie year FOR WHATEVER REASON tend to bust at a ridiculous rate. Jameson Williams red flag depending on when he is able to play. The thought process of "well i don't care what he does his rookie year i drafted him for year 2 and beyond" is a faulty one, imo.



Update For Week 4

67+ Rookie Reception Yards per Game
90% Stud
90% Good or better
Chris Olave [83]

57-66 Rookie Reception Yards per Game
50% Stud
57-69% Good or better
Garrett Wilson [63]
Drake London [57]


47-56 Rookie Reception Yards per Game
38% Stud
57-69% Good or better
Alec Pierce [47]


--------------------

Less than 47
2-10% Stud
4-24% Good or better
Romeo Doubs [46]
George Pickens [41]
Jahan Dotson [38]
Treylon Burks [32]
Kyle Philips [23]
Christian Watson [17]
Skyy Moore [15]
David Bell [11]
Khalil Shakir [11]
+17 others...


---------------------------------------------------
*Stud = 3+ seasons of 1k+ receiving yards
*Good = 3+ seasons 750+ receiving yards
*Based on 1995-2015 sample
*Minimum of 9 games played
*PFF Grade = PFF Receiving Grade
--------------------------------------------------

Thanks, this is awesome! Are you tracking data on RBs as well? Kenneth Walker is someone who I can’t decide if he is a bust or a buy low. Loved him in college, but he seems to be disappointing in his efficiency so far. Then again, sometimes RBs don’t do much until the back half of the season.

[Lumps]

Whenever I watched him, it just seemed like everything was contested or on a go route. I question his separation skills. He kind of looks like Denzel Mims, but I thought Mims had better college tape. But, he's making big plays, has a strong aDOT (13.3) and Matt Ryan is giving him chances.

I don't own Pierce anywhere...so no bias here.

But I contend that the reason he had a lot of contested catches was that Ridder was bad. Pierce would be running a go down the sideline and beating his guy by 3 yards.... annnnnnnd now he's high pointing the ball over the defender.

[Dynasty DeLorean]

2021 Report
2021 Year End Update Post

2020 Report
2020 Year End Update Post


Sample size is small so we'll be seeing large swings / high variance. Last year (i'm looking at Week 5) and of the 4 listed at the top only 2 stayed there for the duration, with several others moving up during the season. But early results are that we might want to consider Olave, Wilson, London as pretty safe bets and start to get a little worried about the rest. Alec Pierce a surprise sleeper here.

Kind of interesting for as many fantasy points as Dotson has put up, it's a little misleading with td's as opposed to yards and receptions. I also saw a blurb that he's not getting as open on his routes as his td numbers would indicate.

Also just a reminder, players who don't play a minimum of at least 9 games their rookie year FOR WHATEVER REASON tend to bust at a ridiculous rate. Jameson Williams red flag depending on when he is able to play. The thought process of "well i don't care what he does his rookie year i drafted him for year 2 and beyond" is a faulty one, imo.



Update For Week 4

67+ Rookie Reception Yards per Game
90% Stud
90% Good or better
Chris Olave [83]

57-66 Rookie Reception Yards per Game
50% Stud
57-69% Good or better
Garrett Wilson [63]
Drake London [57]


47-56 Rookie Reception Yards per Game
38% Stud
57-69% Good or better
Alec Pierce [47]


--------------------

Less than 47
2-10% Stud
4-24% Good or better
Romeo Doubs [46]
George Pickens [41]
Jahan Dotson [38]
Treylon Burks [32]
Kyle Philips [23]
Christian Watson [17]
Skyy Moore [15]
David Bell [11]
Khalil Shakir [11]
+17 others...


---------------------------------------------------
*Stud = 3+ seasons of 1k+ receiving yards
*Good = 3+ seasons 750+ receiving yards
*Based on 1995-2015 sample
*Minimum of 9 games played
*PFF Grade = PFF Receiving Grade
--------------------------------------------------

Thanks, this is awesome! Are you tracking data on RBs as well? Kenneth Walker is someone who I can’t decide if he is a bust or a buy low. Loved him in college, but he seems to be disappointing in his efficiency so far. Then again, sometimes RBs don’t do much until the back half of the season.

Unfortunately it doesn’t seem to work as well for the other positions.

One of my favorite posts from last year redressed for 22

I agree more weeks will be needed but you already see - 1) the separation, 2) for a player to jump from the lower ranks some huge games which only ARSB had from what I recall from last year and E Moore had some flashes.

DD, how long does it take for them to become studs? Would you put E Moore in the dud category with this years production or is it still early?

Hmm, well they would theoretically have their entire career to become a stud. Good question though, what is the timeframe for their 1st 1k yard season or something on average. Something to look up later maybe.

I think this will be way more useful after 5-10 more games. Sample size is just too small to draw any conclusions.

I'd also challenge anyone using this as a knock on Dotson. He's got major target competition and a subpar QB. He's been very impressive so far.

I agree, just his ypg by itself is not enough, but Seth Walder on Twitter has been tweeting out I think it’s espns new advanced metrics using player tracking data and dotsons “open score” (I.e. his ability to get open on any given play) is bottom 10 in the nfl. George Pickens is also in the bottom 10. Both have been making great catches but maybe that’s been necessary because they haven’t been able to get open.

[j4pac]

2021 Report
2021 Year End Update Post

2020 Report
2020 Year End Update Post


Sample size is small so we'll be seeing large swings / high variance. Last year (i'm looking at Week 5) and of the 4 listed at the top only 2 stayed there for the duration, with several others moving up during the season. But early results are that we might want to consider Olave, Wilson, London as pretty safe bets and start to get a little worried about the rest. Alec Pierce a surprise sleeper here.

Kind of interesting for as many fantasy points as Dotson has put up, it's a little misleading with td's as opposed to yards and receptions. I also saw a blurb that he's not getting as open on his routes as his td numbers would indicate.

Also just a reminder, players who don't play a minimum of at least 9 games their rookie year FOR WHATEVER REASON tend to bust at a ridiculous rate. Jameson Williams red flag depending on when he is able to play. The thought process of "well i don't care what he does his rookie year i drafted him for year 2 and beyond" is a faulty one, imo.



Update For Week 4

67+ Rookie Reception Yards per Game
90% Stud
90% Good or better
Chris Olave [83]

57-66 Rookie Reception Yards per Game
50% Stud
57-69% Good or better
Garrett Wilson [63]
Drake London [57]


47-56 Rookie Reception Yards per Game
38% Stud
57-69% Good or better
Alec Pierce [47]


--------------------

Less than 47
2-10% Stud
4-24% Good or better
Romeo Doubs [46]
George Pickens [41]
Jahan Dotson [38]
Treylon Burks [32]
Kyle Philips [23]
Christian Watson [17]
Skyy Moore [15]
David Bell [11]
Khalil Shakir [11]
+17 others...


---------------------------------------------------
*Stud = 3+ seasons of 1k+ receiving yards
*Good = 3+ seasons 750+ receiving yards
*Based on 1995-2015 sample
*Minimum of 9 games played
*PFF Grade = PFF Receiving Grade
--------------------------------------------------

Thanks, this is awesome! Are you tracking data on RBs as well? Kenneth Walker is someone who I can’t decide if he is a bust or a buy low. Loved him in college, but he seems to be disappointing in his efficiency so far. Then again, sometimes RBs don’t do much until the back half of the season.

Unfortunately it doesn’t seem to work as well for the other positions.

One of my favorite posts from last year redressed for 22

I agree more weeks will be needed but you already see - 1) the separation, 2) for a player to jump from the lower ranks some huge games which only ARSB had from what I recall from last year and E Moore had some flashes.

DD, how long does it take for them to become studs? Would you put E Moore in the dud category with this years production or is it still early?

Hmm, well they would theoretically have their entire career to become a stud. Good question though, what is the timeframe for their 1st 1k yard season or something on average. Something to look up later maybe.

I think this will be way more useful after 5-10 more games. Sample size is just too small to draw any conclusions.

I'd also challenge anyone using this as a knock on Dotson. He's got major target competition and a subpar QB. He's been very impressive so far.

I agree, just his ypg by itself is not enough, but Seth Walder on Twitter has been tweeting out I think it’s espns new advanced metrics using player tracking data and dotsons “open score” (I.e. his ability to get open on any given play) is bottom 10 in the nfl. George Pickens is also in the bottom 10. Both have been making great catches but maybe that’s been necessary because they haven’t been able to get open.

This was my argument when people started to talk up Pickens over a guy like Olave. You don’t need to constantly do a triple-backflip one handed catch when you actually get open.

[NeverEndingRebuild]

I always loved this thread. Since this year I only got Wan'dale and Jalen Tolbert, I think it will be a rough year to follow it