Dynasty League Football Forum

So Pickens was generally seen as a 2nd round fantasy prospect. How did this happen? I’m trading a mid/early 23 first for him, because I’m all in.

Why did he fall?

2nd round NFL pick
Top 25 overall recipient going into college
Excellent athletic profile
Early breakout age against SEC talent
Torn ACL in college
Potential character issues

I think we got caught up too much in the character issues and ignored that he was uber talented and played well in the SEC.

Why I’m all in now…

High draft capital
Steelers history with WRs
Camp hype is legit
He played the first quarter yesterday and looked ALPHA


Do as you please, but there is far too much smoke around this player, and he passes the eye test.

I've seen him go anywhere from 1.07-1.12 throughout the summer, and before the camp buzz.

I still think that's an appropriate range. Would not take him over the two RBs, Wilson, London, or Olave. So, we're talking 1.06 before he really becomes a significant consideration with J-Will and Skyy as other options. There's definitely an argument for those two over Pickens. So, he's still in that same range, though more on the higher end now of 1.06-1.09.

I do not think the dynasty community missed on him. The reality is that this is a deep WR class (13 WRs selected in the Top 64) and Pickens suffered because of the ACL injury basically wasting his junior season. Before that injury, he was looked at as a Top 3-5 player in rookie drafts.

The talent is there and he got a great landing spot to play to his talent. It's going to be interesting. We could easily be looking at him at the end of the season as one of the top rookies in this class, and I think his floor might be higher than people think as well.

Was the landing spot great, though? The offense has been underwhelming, so questions about the OC/scheme- was their under performance the last few years driven purely by Ben Roethlisberger? The Trubisky/Pickett/Rudolph trio is a major source of concern. Some people would say they like their rookie WRs to land in established depth charts, where they won't get alpha defensive focus. With Diontae's extension, do you really want the 2nd WR in a Matt Canada/Trubisky offense?

Pullo Vision wrote: ↑Sun Aug 14, 2022 10:04 am Was the landing spot great, though? The offense has been underwhelming, so questions about the OC/scheme- was their under performance the last few years driven purely by Ben Roethlisberger? The Trubisky/Pickett/Rudolph trio is a major source of concern. Some people would say they like their rookie WRs to land in established depth charts, where they won't get alpha defensive focus. With Diontae's extension, do you really want the 2nd WR in a Matt Canada/Trubisky offense?

Exactly my feelings. He definitely looks like he could be the real deal but not crazy at all about the situation.

Went 1.09 in our draft that starts right after the NFL draft. Immediately after Olave snd immediately before Moore and then Watson

Pullo Vision wrote: ↑Sun Aug 14, 2022 10:04 am Was the landing spot great, though? The offense has been underwhelming, so questions about the OC/scheme- was their under performance the last few years driven purely by Ben Roethlisberger? The Trubisky/Pickett/Rudolph trio is a major source of concern. Some people would say they like their rookie WRs to land in established depth charts, where they won't get alpha defensive focus. With Diontae's extension, do you really want the 2nd WR in a Matt Canada/Trubisky offense?

It's fair to wonder if it's mostly because of BB, but the Steelers have a proven history of drafting and developing WRs well. I could definitely think of worse landing spots. The Steelers are one of the better orgs in the league, so long-term I think they'll end up figuring out their QB situation.

Pullo Vision wrote: ↑Sun Aug 14, 2022 10:04 am Was the landing spot great, though? The offense has been underwhelming, so questions about the OC/scheme- was their under performance the last few years driven purely by Ben Roethlisberger? The Trubisky/Pickett/Rudolph trio is a major source of concern. Some people would say they like their rookie WRs to land in established depth charts, where they won't get alpha defensive focus. With Diontae's extension, do you really want the 2nd WR in a Matt Canada/Trubisky offense?

The landing spot was just as great as it was for Najee last year. Last year too many people said Najee was going to suffer because of the Steelers' alleded poor OL, but they overlooked things like his talent, the scheme, and the easily predictable volume.

With Pickens, I think too many people over-analyzed the retirement of Ben, again the OL, the potential for depth chart burial, and most ridiculous of all the so-called character issues. The water gun incident does not deserve a mention. Defending yourself on a football field does not deserve a mention. IMO, calling those character issues is manufacturing reasons to not like a player. Follow talent+scheme+opportunity and it was clear Pickens would have a good chance if his talent proved true.

Consider his year18 breakout and it should have been clearer. Consider Pittsburgh's penchant for giving young WRs a chance to prove themselves, and it should have been clearer. But even I (a Pickens buyer) was not all-in. I should have been.

Moral: The Pittsburgh offense under Tomlin is always a good landing spot for talented players. For the marginally talented, and even more so for the very talented. Last year, Pittsburgh produced a T5RB and a T10WR (and a T40WR) and a rising TE. I'd say that's a pretty solid offense for talented players.

One take I will absolutely never buy-in on is…

Well x player already did it at the NFL level

Sure, but that is an impossible argument. By that argument, you must always trade away rookie picks because none of those players ever played in the NFL.

Claypool is not a special WR, a solid WR2/3 on any team (this is a known), but Pickens as a prospect has a bit of unknown variable. He could be a stud, and I think that is starting to become apparent.

Far too early to think we "went wrong" on anyone from this class. He had a nice TD catch in preseason. This post is like 4 months premature.

dynastyninja wrote: ↑Sun Aug 14, 2022 11:56 am Far too early to think we "went wrong" on anyone from this class. He had a nice TD catch in preseason. This post is like 4 months premature.

*This post is like 4 months visionary of the future

Fixed

dynastyninja wrote: ↑Sun Aug 14, 2022 11:56 am Far too early to think we "went wrong" on anyone from this class. He had a nice TD catch in preseason. This post is like 4 months premature.

It was a great TD catch he made in the 1st quarter last night. Pass placement was excellent, but it was his "late hands" that stood out most to me on that play. I will add though, this was against Seattle, and they are going to be a terrible team in 2022. Still, reason for encouragement, but I would't get too high off of that game tape from yesterday. Gunner Olszewski was tearing up that defense as well in the 1st quarter.

I agree, nobody should be basing his value on one catch. I'm not sure anyone is though.

I never saw him as a 2nd rounder.

I had him in a group with olave and Dotson following:
Hall, walker, Wilson, Williams, Burks, and London.

So I have him 1.07-1.09

He looked really smooth and natural. That was pretty obvious. It’s pretty early but he looks the part.

I still have him behind Wilson/Olave/London/Burks/Jameson/Dotson/Moore/Watson, also Hall and Walker obviously. That's 1.11 for now