George Pickens, where did we go wrong?

[JTLoh]

I still can't get the replay of him jumping out of the way instead of blocking for his teammate at the goal line. Yes he has talent, but I don't think his play has given him the rope to act like he is better than the team. Locker rooms always see that.

What sucked about that is the very next game he scored like 8 times. I was hoping they would reward J.Warren with a TD or something but know they give this selfish player a bunch a TDs.

[TheTroll]

Pickens…we have a sample size but 2024 will show (or expose) what he is made of. Let’s regroup in 10 months

[natjjohn]

Reading the first post right now is hilarious. Having said that, there’s still the slightest glimmer of hope until the Steelers draft a WR round 1 this year

[Anteaters]

I think the Steelers will move on from Pickett ... if they can do it without giving up a lot of draft capital. Even if it means adding someone like Russ Wilson. I find it difficult to believe they'd go for such an older stop-gap player, but I think Pickett has expended all the coach's/GM's/owner's patience. Pickett just doesn't look like the guy.

Dude, you nailed this prediction. You're king for the day!

Even a blind squirrel finds an acorn once in a while. That was my acorn!!!!

[Anteaters]

I predict that by this time next year, a lot of managers will be complaining about how hard it is to acquire Pickens without a huge overpay. I really think Pickens is going to make a climb up the rankings similar to recent ones by AJB, Lamb and ARSB over the past season or two. Don't wait until AFTER Pickens makes the leap to try to acquire him. Make an offer today at an overpay for today's value ... 12months from now, that "overpay" you pay today will be half the price Pickens will cost then.

I don't disagree that he is a good target for this off-season. Skillset seems to match up with what Russ has done historically and until they add another WR or two, he's the only show in town. Someone has to get the targets. If he could knock out the wild inconsistency week to week in his effort level, he could absolutely make a big leap.

Where we differ is with his valuation amongst those other WRs. I don't find it mind boggling that people prefer these guys over Pickens. Every one of them has either produced at a similar/higher level or shown flashes of talent to do so. It's just a big group of very similarly valued WRs. Personally, I take Flowers, Rice, and DJM over Pickens. These guys are attached to Lamar, Mahomes, and Williams(likely) and I prefer their skillsets to Pickens.

If I have to "overpay", I'd also be looking at Smith, Waddle, and Aiyuk. Those three are consistently undervalued because they are "just #2s" on their teams and I bet they could be had for similar price to Pickens.

My opinion of their relative values is this. Those other guys (Flowers/Rice/DJM and while we're at it, Addison/Higgins/London) have higher prices/values attached to them, but have not significantly outperformed Pickens' 2023 season. I understand having a personal preference for any of them over Pickens -- However there is no statistical reasoning for a substantial difference in value/price. So, if there is not valid statistical reason to justify the higher value/cost of those guys, I'd rather pursue a WR positioned to outproduce them who costs less than they do. Or at worst, costs an equal amount.

Flowers - will always be the second option as long as MAndrews is around
Rice - Hello Mr Hollywood.
DJM - Hello Mr Allen.
Addison - distant 2nd fiddle to J-freaking-J
Higgins - already covered this one
London - Despite being WR1 in Atlanta, London has never produced a season close to as productive as Pickens did as the WR2 in PITT in 2023.

IMO, it's a win-win, because the price is (hopefully) cheaper AND the production will be better.

[Anteaters]

I still can't get the replay of him jumping out of the way instead of blocking for his teammate at the goal line. Yes he has talent, but I don't think his play has given him the rope to act like he is better than the team. Locker rooms always see that.

What sucked about that is the very next game he scored like 8 times. I was hoping they would reward J.Warren with a TD or something but know they give this selfish player a bunch a TDs.

Coaches put the best players in position to help the team win. Warren is a good player and for all I know is a great guy. Pickens is twice the player Warren is. That's why Pickens not only received the opportunity to score, but he actually scored.

The coaches didn't "give" either player anything. The coaches put each player to use the best way each player's talent dictated.

[Anteaters]

Pickens…we have a sample size but 2024 will show (or expose) what he is made of. Let’s regroup in 10 months

No problem with that.

However, if we wait until Pickens produces an overall WR5 season in 2024, we'll all have to pay twice today's price to trade for him.

Those who feel Pickens is on the edge of a big jump in production should try to acquire him today. Those who wait until after this coming season will probably never own him unless they trade a starter+two1sts.

Again, I don't disagree with anyone who has less faith in Pickens choosing to not trade for him today. Personal preference and all that. I'm simply presenting my case/reasoning for Pickens. I absorb disagreements agreeably.

[Anteaters]

there’s still the slightest glimmer of hope until the Steelers draft a WR round 1 this year

Pittsburgh Steelers draft picks in first two rounds over last 10 years
2023: OT in 1st, CB, NT in 2nd
2022: QB in 1st, WR (Pickens) in 2nd
2021: RB in 1st, TE in 2nd
2020: WR at pick 49, no 1st rd pick
2019: LB in 1st, no 2nd rd pick
2018: S in 1st, WR in 2nd
2017: LB in 1st, WR in 2nd
2016: CB in 1st, S in 2nd
2015: LB in 1st, CB in 2nd
2014: LB in 1st, DE in 2nd

Under the current owners/GMs/Coaches the Steelers have not drafted a single WR in round 1. They have taken a WR in the 2nd round 4 times out of 10 second round picks.

I'd say there is not a "glimmer of hope" Pittsburgh takes a WR in round 1 this year. There is a glimmer of a possibility the Steelers take a WR in round 2.

The Steelers added the serviceable Van Jefferson in free agency. The best free agent WR still available ... Gallup? OBJ? I'd guess the Steelers use that 2nd on either an OL, DEF or a QB flyer. But there's a chance it's a WR.

The road to Pickens having a stranglehold on 2024 target share is wide open.

[Jigga94]

His value is already rising to account for the wide open WR room. Things can't get worse at QB or offensive scheme. I like the talent, not sure I see WR1 totals in the cards, but he's a solid WR. I still view him lower than talents like Devonta Smith, DJM, and to a lesser extent, London. I would probably throw him in the same tier of young/not-quite-elite Flowers, Rice, etc

[trc]

London - Despite being WR1 in Atlanta, London has never produced a season close to as productive as Pickens did as the WR2 in PITT in 2023.

What is your definition of WR1 and WR2? If only looking at numbers, as you do in this thread, Pickens was the WR1, or at the very least split WR1 with Diontee Johnson if you want to extrapolate Diontee's numbers.

[Anteaters]

London - Despite being WR1 in Atlanta, London has never produced a season close to as productive as Pickens did as the WR2 in PITT in 2023.

What is your definition of WR1 and WR2? If only looking at numbers, as you do in this thread, Pickens was the WR1, or at the very least split WR1 with Diontee Johnson if you want to extrapolate Diontee's numbers.

In 2023 ...
Diontae Johnston was targeted 6.7 times per game.
Pickens was targeted 6.2 times per game.
That tells me that even if we don't designate DJ as WR1, it was at least a situation of 1a/1b.

For reference, Drake London received 6.87 targets per game in 2023. The WR with next highest total of receptions averaged 2.3 targets per game. Even the TEs in ATL fell well short of London, with Jonnu averaging 2.9 targets per game and Pitts averaging 5.29 targets per game. London was clearly the WR1 in ATL.

No matter how you slice it, Pickens did more with comparable targets.

For now, I won't say either is "more talented" than the other. I like London and think he's talented. But when we look at what each has managed to accomplish with bad QBs, it is crystal clear that Pickens has performed better.

[FantasyFreak]

I still can't get the replay of him jumping out of the way instead of blocking for his teammate at the goal line. Yes he has talent, but I don't think his play has given him the rope to act like he is better than the team. Locker rooms always see that.

What sucked about that is the very next game he scored like 8 times. I was hoping they would reward J.Warren with a TD or something but know they give this selfish player a bunch a TDs.

Coaches put the best players in position to help the team win. Warren is a good player and for all I know is a great guy. Pickens is twice the player Warren is. That's why Pickens not only received the opportunity to score, but he actually scored.

The coaches didn't "give" either player anything. The coaches put each player to use the best way each player's talent dictated.

I thought it was a testament to what a good coach Tomlin is. Tomlin OBVIOUSLY had a little 1 on 1 time with Pickens the week after the blocking situation. He decided not to bench Pickens, but to play him, after his conversations with the young man. Pickens responded with a career game. Tomlin was able to use the situation as motivation, to get the best out of his player.

(FWIW, Pickens is a nasty blocker, but clearly there was an issue with giving max effort on every play.)

[trc]

London - Despite being WR1 in Atlanta, London has never produced a season close to as productive as Pickens did as the WR2 in PITT in 2023.

What is your definition of WR1 and WR2? If only looking at numbers, as you do in this thread, Pickens was the WR1, or at the very least split WR1 with Diontee Johnson if you want to extrapolate Diontee's numbers.

In 2023 ...
Diontae Johnston was targeted 6.7 times per game.
Pickens was targeted 6.2 times per game.
That tells me that even if we don't designate DJ as WR1, it was at least a situation of 1a/1b.

For reference, Drake London received 6.87 targets per game in 2023. The WR with next highest total of receptions averaged 2.3 targets per game. Even the TEs in ATL fell well short of London, with Jonnu averaging 2.9 targets per game and Pitts averaging 5.29 targets per game. London was clearly the WR1 in ATL.

No matter how you slice it, Pickens did more with comparable targets.

For now, I won't say either is "more talented" than the other. I like London and think he's talented. But when we look at what each has managed to accomplish with bad QBs, it is crystal clear that Pickens has performed better.

There are many ways to slice a cake, and many ways to show data.

I think it is way complex than that, and quite a few data points suggests that Pickens should have produced better on the same number of targets. Esp. looking at the 2 bolded below.

Here are 4 selected that Pickens has the better value in all of them.
% of targets, 21.9 vs. 21.7
aDot, 13.5 vs. 11.5
% of airyards, 38.6 vs. 30.3
Passing grade of QB, 68.8 vs 53.2

[Anteaters]

Here are 4 selected that Pickens has the better value in all of them.
% of targets, 21.9 vs. 21.7
aDot, 13.5 vs. 11.5
% of airyards, 38.6 vs. 30.3
Passing grade of QB, 68.8 vs 53.2

You're right that data's efficacy is in the eye of the beholder. For instance, I could wonder if the difference in passing grade of two QBs who were fired after each had terrible seasons was due to one being worse than the other, or because Pickens was a better receiver than London. I don't have the data, but as we continue to go down the data rabbit hole, we could compare everything from open % to catch % to all the other advanced analytics.

Or, we could take the shortcut and give the most credence to the data that matters for our little hobby of fantasy football. Receptions, Yards, TDs. Using those three data points, Pickens is already the clear better option than London.

That's not to say London is a bad option. London is a great option. Between the two, Pickens has proven to be the more productive option.

[Cameron Giles]

Under Tomlin, Pittsburgh has always had some sort of pure, dynamic separator who they relied on heavily. I don't know if they're going to use their first rounder to get that guy, but Day 2 is usually when the Steelers do serious damage with WRs:

- Mike Wallace
- Emmanuel Sanders
- JuJu Smith-Schuster
- Diontae Johnson
- George Pickens

Ladd McConkey seems like the archetype for the type of WR they like. I also would keep an eye on Ricky Pearsall. He would fit right in there as a big slot and immediately compliment Pickens.