George Pickens, where did we go wrong?

[Bronco Billy]

63/1140 and 5 last year on 106 targets, and had a goose egg in that last game in monsoon vs the Ravens, so he did that in the first 16 games.

Curious the outlook for Pickens, now that he's the clear number 1, with a slight upgrade at QB this season.

It’s not all pluses. He’s also going to draw opponent’s best cover guy, and I’m pretty convinced Pickens is not talented enough to win a game long battle with any shut down corners he’ll face. Being a team’s WR1 is only a plus when the guy is a legit alpha.

Weeks 2 through 5 Diontae wasn't on the field.

Stat lines

4/127/1 vs Cleveland

4/75 vs Raiders

3/25 vs Texans

6/130/1 vs Ravens

That's not all that bad IMO.

That's 17/357/2 in a 4 game stretch as the "alpha".

Other than my Raiders, those are 3 good D's, too.

Yeah, that 3/25 against HOU as the WR1 should encourage all of his owners.

Seriously though, why didn’t you post the targets too? Pickens got seriously peppered with targets, especially against CLE and BAL. He got 10 in each of those games and caught half of them. So if you’re planning on that this coming season, are you expecting 170 targets for Pickens? If so, then you’re hoping for a ceiling of 85 catches? At 14 ypc if he can muster that would put him just barely under 1200 yds - and that’s his ceiling given that he gets that massive windfall of targets. Is that our target for the FF WR top 5? Or unless you honestly believe he can maintain an 18 ypc over an entire season as a WR1.

Not seeing it. Sorry, I can’t find a way to get him there or even as a FF WR1 given his talent/ability, that he’ll face top coverage every game, that his QBs are questionable at best, and Smith is the OC. But if you can sucker someone and sell that fairytale to turn his situation into giving you FF WR1 value in a trade, great for you!

[murphysxm]

uh oh, I agree with Bronco Billy.......

[FantasyFreak]

It’s not all pluses. He’s also going to draw opponent’s best cover guy, and I’m pretty convinced Pickens is not talented enough to win a game long battle with any shut down corners he’ll face. Being a team’s WR1 is only a plus when the guy is a legit alpha.

Weeks 2 through 5 Diontae wasn't on the field.

Stat lines

4/127/1 vs Cleveland

4/75 vs Raiders

3/25 vs Texans

6/130/1 vs Ravens

That's not all that bad IMO.

That's 17/357/2 in a 4 game stretch as the "alpha".

Other than my Raiders, those are 3 good D's, too.

Yeah, that 3/25 against HOU as the WR1 should encourage all of his owners.

Seriously though, why didn’t you post the targets too? Pickens got seriously peppered with targets, especially against CLE and BAL. He got 10 in each of those games and caught half of them. So if you’re planning on that this coming season, are you expecting 170 targets for Pickens? If so, then you’re hoping for a ceiling of 85 catches? At 14 ypc if he can muster that would put him just barely under 1200 yds - and that’s his ceiling given that he gets that massive windfall of targets. Is that our target for the FF WR top 5? Or unless you honestly believe he can maintain an 18 ypc over an entire season as a WR1.

Not seeing it. Sorry, I can’t find a way to get him there or even as a FF WR1 given his talent/ability, that he’ll face top coverage every game, that his QBs are questionable at best, and Smith is the OC. But if you can sucker someone and sell that fairytale to turn his situation into giving you FF WR1 value in a trade, great for you!

FF production is based on what I posted. The catches, yards and TDs. Yes, he got targets, but the point is, as the WR1, he produced, and could got more targets when Diontae was out. I didn't leave out the Houston game, but your'e going to downplay his production vs Baltimore and Cleveland because he got 10 targets in those games? He went 10/257/2 in those 2 games, but that's not good, and didn't help his team, because it happened on 20 targets? IDK about that.

I never claimed he'd be a FF WR1. Ever. Anywhere. Let alone a top 5 FF WR. You're arguing against points I didn't make. I know there's a term for that.

I was simply asking what people thought his target volume would be, considering it was 106 last year, which I think is about his floor this year. I could see 120 targets, no, I don't think he's a 170 target WR.

[Anteaters]

Anyone who doesn't think Pickens can produce 1400yds and 10TDs hasn't been paying attention to him the last two seasons.
Arguing how he does it is like arguing that all Chris Carter did was catch TDs. I wish I could find an owner who thought Pickens was going to cap out at 875yds+3TDs (London's average for two years) this season. It would be easier to acquire him.

[SoftwoodGrampian]

Just give Pickens London’s numbers from last year and call it a day.

[FantasyFreak]

Just give Pickens London’s numbers from last year and call it a day.

I'll take that bet. 2 TD's? . No.. Pickens put up well over 1100 yards with Pickett and Rudolph. He's in line for more targets. I don't see it being that low.

[FantasyFreak]

Anyone who doesn't think Pickens can produce 1400yds and 10TDs hasn't been paying attention to him the last two seasons.
Arguing how he does it is like arguing that all Chris Carter did was catch TDs. I wish I could find an owner who thought Pickens was going to cap out at 875yds+3TDs (London's average for two years) this season. It would be easier to acquire him.

I don't know what he will put up, but assuming health, I don't see his numbers being lower than last years.

[Bronco Billy]

Weeks 2 through 5 Diontae wasn't on the field.

Stat lines

4/127/1 vs Cleveland

4/75 vs Raiders

3/25 vs Texans

6/130/1 vs Ravens

That's not all that bad IMO.

That's 17/357/2 in a 4 game stretch as the "alpha".

Other than my Raiders, those are 3 good D's, too.

Yeah, that 3/25 against HOU as the WR1 should encourage all of his owners.

Seriously though, why didn’t you post the targets too? Pickens got seriously peppered with targets, especially against CLE and BAL. He got 10 in each of those games and caught half of them. So if you’re planning on that this coming season, are you expecting 170 targets for Pickens? If so, then you’re hoping for a ceiling of 85 catches? At 14 ypc if he can muster that would put him just barely under 1200 yds - and that’s his ceiling given that he gets that massive windfall of targets. Is that our target for the FF WR top 5? Or unless you honestly believe he can maintain an 18 ypc over an entire season as a WR1.

Not seeing it. Sorry, I can’t find a way to get him there or even as a FF WR1 given his talent/ability, that he’ll face top coverage every game, that his QBs are questionable at best, and Smith is the OC. But if you can sucker someone and sell that fairytale to turn his situation into giving you FF WR1 value in a trade, great for you!

FF production is based on what I posted. The catches, yards and TDs. Yes, he got targets, but the point is, as the WR1, he produced, and could got more targets when Diontae was out. I didn't leave out the Houston game, but your'e going to downplay his production vs Baltimore and Cleveland because he got 10 targets in those games? He went 10/257/2 in those 2 games, but that's not good, and didn't help his team, because it happened on 20 targets? IDK about that.

I never claimed he'd be a FF WR1. Ever. Anywhere. Let alone a top 5 FF WR. You're arguing against points I didn't make. I know there's a term for that.

I was simply asking what people thought his target volume would be, considering it was 106 last year, which I think is about his floor this year. I could see 120 targets, no, I don't think he's a 170 target WR.

Did someone piss in your cheerios this morning?

The points I was making were aimed at the general discussion ongoing but using the data you posted.

And yes, I consider opportunity a huge part of the equation. When someone takes an extraordinarily small sample and tries to extrapolate it into a future season long performance evaluation then I do believe all factors ought to be assessed, and especially when there is something substantial tied to the outcome, in this case excessive targets and a poor catch rate in that small sample.

No, you did not claim he was going to be a FF WR1. But again, that’s taking the conversation to the general level and addressing some awfully optimistic prognostications IMO.

In any case, I hope your day gets better moving forward GB.

[FantasyFreak]

Yeah, that 3/25 against HOU as the WR1 should encourage all of his owners.

Seriously though, why didn’t you post the targets too? Pickens got seriously peppered with targets, especially against CLE and BAL. He got 10 in each of those games and caught half of them. So if you’re planning on that this coming season, are you expecting 170 targets for Pickens? If so, then you’re hoping for a ceiling of 85 catches? At 14 ypc if he can muster that would put him just barely under 1200 yds - and that’s his ceiling given that he gets that massive windfall of targets. Is that our target for the FF WR top 5? Or unless you honestly believe he can maintain an 18 ypc over an entire season as a WR1.

Not seeing it. Sorry, I can’t find a way to get him there or even as a FF WR1 given his talent/ability, that he’ll face top coverage every game, that his QBs are questionable at best, and Smith is the OC. But if you can sucker someone and sell that fairytale to turn his situation into giving you FF WR1 value in a trade, great for you!

FF production is based on what I posted. The catches, yards and TDs. Yes, he got targets, but the point is, as the WR1, he produced, and could got more targets when Diontae was out. I didn't leave out the Houston game, but your'e going to downplay his production vs Baltimore and Cleveland because he got 10 targets in those games? He went 10/257/2 in those 2 games, but that's not good, and didn't help his team, because it happened on 20 targets? IDK about that.

I never claimed he'd be a FF WR1. Ever. Anywhere. Let alone a top 5 FF WR. You're arguing against points I didn't make. I know there's a term for that.

I was simply asking what people thought his target volume would be, considering it was 106 last year, which I think is about his floor this year. I could see 120 targets, no, I don't think he's a 170 target WR.

Did someone piss in your cheerios this morning?

The points I was making were aimed at the general discussion ongoing but using the data you posted.

And yes, I consider opportunity a huge part of the equation. When someone takes an extraordinarily small sample and tries to extrapolate it into a future season long performance evaluation then I do believe all factors ought to be assessed, and especially when there is something substantial tied to the outcome, in this case excessive targets and a poor catch rate in that small sample.

No, you did not claim he was going to be a FF WR1. But again, that’s taking the conversation to the general level and addressing some awfully optimistic prognostications IMO.

In any case, I hope your day gets better moving forward GB.

Fair enough.

[Sriracha]

You say pessimistic, I would say "realistic".

I believe literally everything he wrote, because it's pretty much all just stats / truth.

The only exception would be that I like the Roman Wilson pick re. "worst WR room in the league" - but I agree that he is in no way ready to be Diontae Johnson straight out of the gate.

You should canvas Drake London (or even Courtland Sutton) owners from last year about how good it feels to be cheering for the #1 WR in a Arthur Smith (or modern Russ) offense.

"Get ready to learn high efficiency, buddy!" (literally his only hope)

I have no idea how the Steelers routinely get these gems in the late 2nd - 3rd rounds.

Roman Wilson doesn’t even have the character concerns some of the other guys had — was just playing in Harbaugh’s offense.

I’d be surprised if Pickens is as much of a target hog as people are assuming in this thread

Because of Roman, year 1? Roman isn't anything like Diontae, though. Roman's a downfield guy. He's Marvin Mims.

He was used that way at Michigan because it was a low volume passing offense that needed to make the most of their pass attempts.

This is Dynasty and 1 year of production, while important, should not be our focal point for positions with longevity like the WR position.

Roman was the #1 WR in this class in separation vs man coverage and had the 3rd highest conversion rate of contested catches. He does need to get better vs press coverage before he can excell as an outside WR but even in his rookie year I'd expect him to be significant target competition from the slot by mid season.

He's more like Tyler Lockett than Marvin Mims

[hankmurphy]

If we’re talking about catch rates should we take into account catchable targets? Based on fantasypros numbers for 2023 Pickens had ~60% catchable target rate.

For comparison Drake London and Courtland Sutton saw 66% and 72% respectively.

[mild]

I don't have a concern that Pickens can't produce against a #1 corner. I think Mild's point is correct.

Go back and look at what the top WRs in an Arthur Smith offense have done. It's just so much inconsistency and passing volume is always way below the league average. That's the concern you should have with Pickens. Brown, Pitts, London....all of them struggled to get consistency with Smith, even if they all ended up getting 1000 or close to it at the end of the season. I think it's going to be more of the same.

You throw a Russell Wilson (not at his peak) or Justin Fields on top of it?

Everything this team did in the offseason on offense is tell you that they are going to run the ball hard and the passing is going to be volatile.

We see eye to eye CG.

This Steelers team is a real gumbo of the damned. So many villains all in one place...

I want nothing to do with the pass catchers or QB's on this offense.

[FantasyFreak]

I have no idea how the Steelers routinely get these gems in the late 2nd - 3rd rounds.

Roman Wilson doesn’t even have the character concerns some of the other guys had — was just playing in Harbaugh’s offense.

I’d be surprised if Pickens is as much of a target hog as people are assuming in this thread

Because of Roman, year 1? Roman isn't anything like Diontae, though. Roman's a downfield guy. He's Marvin Mims.

He was used that way at Michigan because it was a low volume passing offense that needed to make the most of their pass attempts.

This is Dynasty and 1 year of production, while important, should not be our focal point for positions with longevity like the WR position.

Roman was the #1 WR in this class in separation vs man coverage and had the 3rd highest conversion rate of contested catches. He does need to get better vs press coverage before he can excell as an outside WR but even in his rookie year I'd expect him to be significant target competition from the slot by mid season.

He's more like Tyler Lockett than Marvin Mims

It's funny because I just looked at his NFL.com breakdown, and Zierlien (sp?) comped him to Mims.

I just don't see a world in which he gets the target volume Diontae was getting, as a rookie. As I said, I believe Pickens target total last year is his floor, at 106. I think he could push 120-130 this season. As bad as Russ and Fields are, I don't think it's a downgrade on Pickett/Rudolph. It's a push, at worst.

I am not saying Pickens is going to put up Ceedee Lamb numbers, but I do think he is going to have the opportunity to outdo his totals from last year.

[Ice]

Pickens should be ecstatic this year. Wilson's average pass before it was caught last year was 3.8 yards; That's an entire 1/10th of a yard more than Pickett managed last year.

[Jigga94]

I don't see the situation being that much better than last year to just assume Pickens vaults up to the next tier. I think it will be more of the same and probably more volatile. Staying away from Arthur Smith and Fields/Russ