Zamir White: My Favourite Sleeper RB

[mild]

We don't have a Zamir White thread! Let's change that.

I made this post over in the Dynasty Advice section, and figured it was good enough as a sourdough starter for here: White is one of my priority targets in this year's Rookie Drafts, and is someone I think we should be smashing at his current ADP.

If you watch his tape, there's two Zamir Whites: the injured one on the come back trail from either of his catastrophic ACL injuries, and the explosive one from the end of the 2021 season + before his 2nd tear in the 2020 season. That latter player is the one who ran a 4.4 at this year's combine - if you watch the 2021 highlights you can see him literally getting faster and busting bigger runs as the year progresses (the player at the start is definitely not a 4.4 player). That's roughly in line with what we know of ACL rehab timelines.

Remember that this was a 5 Star High School recruit that some thought was going to come in and challenge Deandre Swift for work, and be the next great Georgia RB. He was considered the #1 RB recruit in the nation when he picked Georgia over Alabama, OSU, and UNC. The double ACL's totally derailed that narrative - but as a result, we now get to purchase a 6"0 215lb rocked-up contact-lovin' RB nicknamed "Zeus" at a discount.

There have also been early rumblings from the Raiders beat that his North/South hard-nosed running style might be better conducive to what McDaniels wants out of his running back for this attack than Jacobs.

Certainly Zamir was drafted by this new McDaniel's regime - and Jacobs wasn't. Further to that, they declined Jacob's 5th year. They may yet re-sign him - but if I had to guess, we may as well now be thinking of the Raiders as "Patriots AFC West". The Pats don't pay RB's. I don't expect the Raiders to either with 129 million already committed to their 2023 Offense alone.

[kadun2]

He’s my favorite sleeper too

[ericanadian]

6’0” 215 lbs contact loving player doesn’t sound like a great combination. I love the skillset and seem to have him ranked ahead of most, but health seems like a major concern.

[mild]

6’0” 215 lbs contact loving player doesn’t sound like a great combination. I love the skillset and seem to have him ranked ahead of most, but health seems like a major concern.

Well, to that point: he's torn both ACL's. If knee injuries were in any way predictive with RB's, then I might be inclined to agree with you. But they're just not, they are largely random. Would you prefer it if I'd written "contact averse RB"? It comes with the job.

There is some school of thought out there that a rebuilt ACL can be just as effective as the original one - provided good rehab and conditioning, and a return to full motion. I would argue that him running a 4.4 (which was SHOCKING to a lot of us when he did it, as we largely had him pegged as a plodder) shows that that motion is back.

More to the point: Zeus has been drafted to what I expect to be a -VERY- good offense going forward for the prime of his RB years, and has the chance to secure the starting role from as soon as 2023 if things break his way. This Raiders offense is going to score a lot of TD's, and any defense that tries a loaded box against this aerial attack will get slapped hard. Expect wide open running lanes for whichever back is lucky enough to tote the rock in LV.

For a player that can be had in the 3rd round of Rookie drafts, with that kind of physical build, opportunity, and prospect pedigree... I buy that, all day.

[abloom]

ACL injuries are fairly traumatic injuries for the knees. Even after the recovery they tend to result in a degenerate knee condition that can eventually result in RBs losing burst/speed quickly.

We've seen this with a lot of rbs, even great ones like Gurley. I agree white is a great target for where he is going, I got two shares of him myself this off season (both late 2nd in SF formats). I think if he really explodes in the next two seasons I'd sell him very quickly.

[Jigga94]

I like his chances for 2023 in that offense. However, I said similar things about AJ Dillon and then they went and re-signed Aaron Jones. That would certainly tank his value if LVR were to sign Jacobs or another RB as it's really all about opportunity at this point.

When I looked at Zamir before the draft, I really thought he had a good chance at day 2 capital, so I guess I was high on him. The ACLs aren't a good thing and I'm not willing to gloss over them. But there's a decent chance they won't be an issue in his playing career. I mean, both tears came before he even played a college game, so thats encouraging that hes been healthy for a few years now.

That and his lack of pass catching history (thanks James Cook) are my 2 biggest concerns. Not to say he can't be a 3 down RB, but I think it's very slim chances.

And he's going in the late 2nd/early 3rd in rookie drafts. Sometimes several picks behind guys like Brian Robinson and Tyler Allgeier. So yeah he's a Sleeper comparatively

[Mjvb5]

I like his chances for 2023 in that offense. However, I said similar things about AJ Dillon and then they went and re-signed Aaron Jones. That would certainly tank his value if LVR were to sign Jacobs or another RB as it's really all about opportunity at this point.

When I looked at Zamir before the draft, I really thought he had a good chance at day 2 capital, so I guess I was high on him. The ACLs aren't a good thing and I'm not willing to gloss over them. But there's a decent chance they won't be an issue in his playing career. I mean, both tears came before he even played a college game, so thats encouraging that hes been healthy for a few years now.

That and his lack of pass catching history (thanks James Cook) are my 2 biggest concerns. Not to say he can't be a 3 down RB, but I think it's very slim chances.

And he's going in the late 2nd/early 3rd in rookie drafts. Sometimes several picks behind guys like Brian Robinson and Tyler Allgeier. So yeah he's a Sleeper comparatively

Hes a weird combo in that its hard to call him a sleeper bc everyone knows him and the situation pretty well but at the same point I just have a real hard time passing on the value that I feel like Im getting on whoever it is falls into that late 2nd early 3rd range from the usual guys there just due to the massive tier there is (IMO) in the 2nd to midish 3rd.

[mild]

I like his chances for 2023 in that offense. However, I said similar things about AJ Dillon and then they went and re-signed Aaron Jones. That would certainly tank his value if LVR were to sign Jacobs or another RB as it's really all about opportunity at this point.

They might re-sign Jacobs, for sure, it's a possibility.

My only true argument against it at this stage is to let the contracts to the talking.

2023 Las Vegas Raiders Cap Hits:

Derek Carr - $34.8m
Davante Adams - $30.5m
Darren Waller - $7m
Hunter Renfrow - $13.3m

That's four core players, totalling $85.6m in '23 cap hit alone. For context, the Raiders entire offense counts for $99.5m against the cap this year in 2022. Next year, that figure balloons to $129.5m, in large part because of those contracts I listed.

I'm just saying: something is probably going to have to give.

(Kenyan Drake is also here for $4.4 mil, none of it guaranteed. A highly likely cut candidate.)

When the Raiders declined Jacobs' 5th year option, they essentially said they didn't think he was worth just over $8m for a one year rental. Extrapolate from that what you will; my gamble is that another team with more Cap Space will likely be game to give him something approaching that.

[natjjohn]

I like him and regret not drafting when had the chance. Though, guys with his draft capital tend to amount to little. Wouldn’t be surprising at all to see Raiders draft another RB next year

[YouMightDieTryin]

I like him and regret not drafting when had the chance. Though, guys with his draft capital tend to amount to little. Wouldn’t be surprising at all to see Raiders draft another RB next year

Bingo. I drafted him in hopes that he'll shine just enough to flip for a decent return. Jacobs won't be back unless he takes a friendly deal, Drake is in the same boat, but will the Raiders spend high enough draft capital? The potential is there with next years class to get someone.

[mild]

Further to that, they declined Jacob's 5th year. They may yet re-sign him - but if I had to guess, we may as well now be thinking of the Raiders as "Patriots AFC West". The Pats don't pay RB's. I don't expect the Raiders to either with 129 million already committed to their 2023 Offense alone.

Charles Robinson, speaking on his impressions of Day 1 of Raiders Camp today:

6. Health permitting, running back is going to be exactly what you’d think. It will end up being a situational committee and I wouldn’t be surprised to see the position get entirely revamped next offseason. If you hate how the #Patriots use backs, look away. It will be similar.

Patriots AFC West edition confirmed.

[MEuRaH]

I hope it works out for you. I have Zamir White firmly in my "Ronald Jones / Ke'Shawn Vaughn" tier. https://dynastyleaguefootball.com/2022/ ... p-rbs-5-8/

He needs tons of work on his game imo, and I don't think he can overcome the obstacles in his way. I hope I'm wrong. I only want to see these guys succeed. They put their bodies on the line for our entertainment and in return we judge them and I call him a bust.

[Anteaters]

Jacobs won't be back. The money squeeze will ensure that, and teams like LAR/DAL/MIA/ will have openings for starting RBs. Not to mention the Giants, who would be beyond stupid to give Saquon a big money extension. And who knows what teams like CAR/TEN/TB/CLE will look like in the backfield after their stars endure another season of RB beatings/aging.

I agree with many that Jacobs is unlikely to be back in LV in '23. But I think he'll end up in a situation at least as favorable for his production as LV is now. I view him as a sort-of-buy-low candidate from any owner that might be afraid of where Jacobs will end up in '23. He's still relatively young, hasn't had the pounding of some RBs, and has been relatively injury free.

To stay on topic, I don't know if Zamir is good enough to take advantage of Jacobs' departure next season.

[Jigga94]

I hope it works out for you. I have Zamir White firmly in my "Ronald Jones / Ke'Shawn Vaughn" tier. https://dynastyleaguefootball.com/2022/ ... p-rbs-5-8/

He needs tons of work on his game imo, and I don't think he can overcome the obstacles in his way. I hope I'm wrong. I only want to see these guys succeed. They put their bodies on the line for our entertainment and in return we judge them and I call him a bust.

Can you please make a "last chance to sell Zamir White thread" if he gets a value bump?

Appreciate the insight though. At least Zamir isnt shooting up into the early 2nd/late 1st like Vaughn and RoJo

[Mjvb5]

I hope it works out for you. I have Zamir White firmly in my "Ronald Jones / Ke'Shawn Vaughn" tier. https://dynastyleaguefootball.com/2022/ ... p-rbs-5-8/

He needs tons of work on his game imo, and I don't think he can overcome the obstacles in his way. I hope I'm wrong. I only want to see these guys succeed. They put their bodies on the line for our entertainment and in return we judge them and I call him a bust.

Can you please make a "last chance to sell Zamir White thread" if he gets a value bump?

Appreciate the insight though. At least Zamir isnt shooting up into the early 2nd/late 1st like Vaughn and RoJo

Yea that's my thing is I feel like being in that tier of guys while bad he's got a relatively substantial discount to the back of the 2nd/Early 3rd a good chunk of the time