Who is everyone avoiding in the 2022 Draft Class?

[Paul717]

So I stumbled upon this beauty of a thread:

viewtopic.php?f=5&t=196039

The OP predicted (correctly, it seems?) that N'Keal Harry would be a bust. Others thought at the time he was well worthy of a top 5 pick.

I pick at 1.05 this year and can't really afford a huge miss. Anyone feel REALLY STRONGLY AGAINST anyone typically going in the top 10-15 picks or so in 2022 drafts?

If there is another thread on this that I've missed, apologies.

[YouMightDieTryin]

If this is a pick that you can't afford to miss then this may be the wrong draft for you. Put 6 dice in a cup, shake it up, and see what you get. Repeat. That's about the same consensus anyone has had about the picks this year. It's anyone's guess as to who will hit and miss. Might be your best interest to trade out to a random 23 1st if you can.

[murphysxm]

If I had to predict the players most likely to miss they would be Burks, London and Williams. I love Williams though, so that would be the biggest blow.

[Jigga94]

I've been fading Burks lately. I loved him and he's still in the top tier, but no way am I taking him over Wilsom/London/Williams now.

Probably not ending up with any James Cook shares either at his price but I don't think he busts necessarily

[dynastyninja]

It's a murky year. There's a lot of WR talent and value there, but early firsts are less certain than we're used to.

[murphysxm]

It's a murky year. There's a lot of WR talent and value there, but early firsts are less certain than we're used to.

Every year is murky. Every year early firsts end up being less certain than we anticipated. I just think there is less separation this year

[Paul717]

If this is a pick that you can't afford to miss then this may be the wrong draft for you. Put 6 dice in a cup, shake it up, and see what you get. Repeat. That's about the same consensus anyone has had about the picks this year. It's anyone's guess as to who will hit and miss. Might be your best interest to trade out to a random 23 1st if you can.

I'm sure I'd be able to move the pick for a random 2023 1st. But if the 2023 first I'd get COULD end up in the 1.13 to 1.16 range, is that enough of a return? Or, would I realistically be able to ask for more coming back?

[Paul717]

If I had to predict the players most likely to miss they would be Burks, London and Williams. I love Williams though, so that would be the biggest blow.

Oh dear, lol. Those are definitely players that would be on my radar at 1.05. It sounds like there are land mines out there. Appreciate the response, and I'm with you on Jameson Williams. What gives you the most pause about him?

Edit: "I'm with you" meaning I like Jameson a lot too.

[YouMightDieTryin]

If this is a pick that you can't afford to miss then this may be the wrong draft for you. Put 6 dice in a cup, shake it up, and see what you get. Repeat. That's about the same consensus anyone has had about the picks this year. It's anyone's guess as to who will hit and miss. Might be your best interest to trade out to a random 23 1st if you can.

I'm sure I'd be able to move the pick for a random 2023 1st. But if the 2023 first I'd get COULD end up in the 1.13 to 1.16 range, is that enough of a return? Or, would I realistically be able to ask for more coming back?

Doesn't hurt to ask for more if you know it's from a strong competing team. If it's going to be that late of a pick I'd error on it. SF makes it a bit closer as you should have high talent still available, but with a similar question mark of this years draft.

[Paul717]

Maybe a related question I could've asked: Anyone in the 2022 draft class have a decent floor, but maybe not a high ceiling? Like someone you are "meh" about but think he can be a 60-800-4 TD kind of "double" instead of trying to swing for the fences? Cause that sort of profile would actually be tempting, lol, when trying to avoid a huge miss.

[Paul717]

If this is a pick that you can't afford to miss then this may be the wrong draft for you. Put 6 dice in a cup, shake it up, and see what you get. Repeat. That's about the same consensus anyone has had about the picks this year. It's anyone's guess as to who will hit and miss. Might be your best interest to trade out to a random 23 1st if you can.

I'm sure I'd be able to move the pick for a random 2023 1st. But if the 2023 first I'd get COULD end up in the 1.13 to 1.16 range, is that enough of a return? Or, would I realistically be able to ask for more coming back?

Doesn't hurt to ask for more if you know it's from a strong competing team. If it's going to be that late of a pick I'd error on it. SF makes it a bit closer as you should have high talent still available, but with a similar question mark of this years draft.

Appreciate the responses. Have you changed your Avatar Sir / Ma'am? I sort of remember a squirrel

[Paul717]

I've been fading Burks lately. I loved him and he's still in the top tier, but no way am I taking him over Wilsom/London/Williams now.

Probably not ending up with any James Cook shares either at his price but I don't think he busts necessarily

Having hit on AJ Brown a few years ago, I have to admit Burks is on my radar. Perhaps that is a dangerous line of thinking.

Is it correct to say that AJB might not be a good comp for Burks? What are your biggest concerns with Burks? I've seen on this forum discussions around separation issues.

[Dynasty DeLorean]

I haven’t drafted a single wr. Not worth it to draft a wr at 1.03 that in a typical year is going 2.03. I would be trading up, back or out with any 1st not the 1.01 or 1.02 (Breece and walker). There is not much of a difference between Pittman and London as prospects. Sutton also went early 2nd in his draft class. This year you’re spending the 1.03. Doesn’t make sense. Godwin was going in the 2nd and this year you have to spend a mid-1st for a similar prospect. I understand the draft capital is higher for the wrs this year but overall as prospects they are similar to late-1st or 2nd rounders in other years. Sure some will hit but nobody knows which ones. None are complete prospects.

[Bleggins]

A bit further down, but Christian Watson for me. Everyone thinks the landing spot is great, but the reality is that what Rodgers really wants from his receivers is trust, and I definitely don't think he'll have that with a very raw rookie.
I've also been waffling on Burks. Didn't really love him even before workouts, and obviously things haven't gotten much better since then. But I could also see him being a big hit.
Related to the linked thread, I actually didn't love Harry coming out, so I do feel vindicated about that. It was also interesting to read that people loved Treadwell in 16. That was the first dynasty rookie draft I did, and really didn't consume any fantasy-related content, but I had basically no interest in him, either. Granted, I lived Doctson, so not like I'm batting 1.000 there.

[Paul717]

I haven’t drafted a single wr. Not worth it to draft a wr at 1.03 that in a typical year is going 2.03. I would be trading up, back or out with any 1st not the 1.01 or 1.02 (Breece and walker). There is not much of a difference between Pittman and London as prospects. Sutton also went early 2nd in his draft class. This year you’re spending the 1.03. Doesn’t make sense. Godwin was going in the 2nd and this year you have to spend a mid-1st for a similar prospect. I understand the draft capital is higher for the wrs this year but overall as prospects they are similar to late-1st or 2nd rounders in other years. Sure some will hit but nobody knows which ones. None are complete prospects.

Appreciate the response. Would you pursue something like either of the following deals:

Give 2022 1.05, get 2022 1.14 + 2023 2nd (could be late-ish)
Give 2022 1.05, get 2022 2.14 + 2023 1st (again, could be late-ish as in 1.13 - 1.16)