Singletary or Spiller or DPierce

[BigBawseRoss]

i also wouldnt be wildly opposed to getting off thielen (trade for whatever you can get) hes gonna be 32 prior to the season and looks like hed be nothing more than a bye week play for you

[Anteaters]

For a contender who hopefully won't need either's production in 2022, which player would you rather have?

While neither would project as a regular starter for me in '22, we all know RB depth is key to any championship run. It's very possible my team will need a 4th/5th RB to step up and contribute this season, so I can't totally base this on 2023 and beyond.

Thanks for all the replies to help me consider this. After reading the responses in this thread, some in the Spiller thread, other threads, and sources on other sites, I've decided to hold off on making any move.


While I'm hopeful that Singletary can maintain his end of the '21 season pace, I'm not very optimistic that he will consistently be that good. It will be a great surprise to me if Singletary can be a consistent T20RB, and if he's not he probably won't start for me hardly at all.

OTOH, after reviewing the past few NFL drafts, the outcomes for RBs drafted in the 4th round or later is overwhelmingly uninspiring. Basically no one in that situation ever (ever ever) plays an entire season as a T24RB. Not just their rookie seasons, but never in their entire careers.

.5PPR results using FantasyPros results for 4th round and later
2021 Draft: EMitchell RB25, Michael Carter RB29, CHubbard RB33, RStevenson RB40, Gainwell RB42
2020 Draft: None worth mentioning
2019 Draft: JHill RB73
2018 Draft: Hines RB33,RB44,RB20,RB53; Edmonds RB75,RB54,RB28,RB35
2017 Draft: SPerine RB44,worse&worse; Cohen RB37,RB13,RB37; JamWilliams RB28,RB44,RB34,RB39,RB43

Singletary: RB31,RB34,RB20

Other than Cohen having a great second season in 2018, no one on that list really jumps out as a great "overcame his 4th-or-later draft position" story. These are all guys we roster and hope we never have to start on a regular basis. Hines had/has some value in a zeroRB strategy, but overall? Blah!

And no one has done better than Singletary. He was also drafted in the 3rd round and was the 5th overall RB selected, so his draft position isn't in the same bucket as those other guys.

As much as I respect what Spiller did in college and as much as I love his landing spot, the results above are hard to ignore. Maybe Spiller will be the one to break the mold, Ekeler will get injured, and Spiller will have a season like Cohen did in 2018. But that seems like more of a longshot than I first thought.

Looks like I'm better off sticking with a guy who was a RB2 in 2021 and will likely have a larger role in 2022. For now, Singletary it is.

[BigBawseRoss]

For a contender who hopefully won't need either's production in 2022, which player would you rather have?

While neither would project as a regular starter for me in '22, we all know RB depth is key to any championship run. It's very possible my team will need a 4th/5th RB to step up and contribute this season, so I can't totally base this on 2023 and beyond.

Thanks for all the replies to help me consider this. After reading the responses in this thread, some in the Spiller thread, other threads, and sources on other sites, I've decided to hold off on making any move.


While I'm hopeful that Singletary can maintain his end of the '21 season pace, I'm not very optimistic that he will consistently be that good. It will be a great surprise to me if Singletary can be a consistent T20RB, and if he's not he probably won't start for me hardly at all.

OTOH, after reviewing the past few NFL drafts, the outcomes for RBs drafted in the 4th round or later is overwhelmingly uninspiring. Basically no one in that situation ever (ever ever) plays an entire season as a T24RB. Not just their rookie seasons, but never in their entire careers.

.5PPR results using FantasyPros results for 4th round and later
2021 Draft: EMitchell RB25, Michael Carter RB29, CHubbard RB33, RStevenson RB40, Gainwell RB42
2020 Draft: None worth mentioning
2019 Draft: JHill RB73
2018 Draft: Hines RB33,RB44,RB20,RB53; Edmonds RB75,RB54,RB28,RB35
2017 Draft: SPerine RB44,worse&worse; Cohen RB37,RB13,RB37; JamWilliams RB28,RB44,RB34,RB39,RB43

Singletary: RB31,RB34,RB20

Other than Cohen having a great second season in 2018, no one on that list really jumps out as a great "overcame his 4th-or-later draft position" story. These are all guys we roster and hope we never have to start on a regular basis. Hines had/has some value in a zeroRB strategy, but overall? Blah!

And no one has done better than Singletary. He was also drafted in the 3rd round and was the 5th overall RB selected, so his draft position isn't in the same bucket as those other guys.

As much as I respect what Spiller did in college and as much as I love his landing spot, the results above are hard to ignore. Maybe Spiller will be the one to break the mold, Ekeler will get injured, and Spiller will have a season like Cohen did in 2018. But that seems like more of a longshot than I first thought.

Looks like I'm better off sticking with a guy who was a RB2 in 2021 and will likely have a larger role in 2022. For now, Singletary it is.

you needed to go 1 more year to get kenyan drake and jordan howard, then you would have some optimism!!! lol

[Anteaters]

.5PPR results using FantasyPros results for 4th round and later
2021 Draft: EMitchell RB25, Michael Carter RB29, CHubbard RB33, RStevenson RB40, Gainwell RB42
2020 Draft: None worth mentioning
2019 Draft: JHill RB73
2018 Draft: Hines RB33,RB44,RB20,RB53; Edmonds RB75,RB54,RB28,RB35
2017 Draft: SPerine RB44,worse&worse; Cohen RB37,RB13,RB37; JamWilliams RB28,RB44,RB34,RB39,RB43

you needed to go 1 more year to get kenyan drake and jordan howard, then you would have some optimism!!! lol

When I first saw those names I chuckled. Then I thought "those are a couple of names that bring back fond memories. Maybe ..." So I looked them up.

KDrake: RB77, RB35, RB17, RB16, RB14, RB52
JHoward: RB10, RB12, RB20, RB41, RB88, RB63

If these two Round 4 picks could have peak years like that, maybe Spiller is a sneaky smart choice after all.

Then I double checked the 2016 draft. Turns out Drake was a relatively early 3rd (73rd overall). That's too bad because he was looking like the kind of good-not-great RB I would hope for out of that 4th+ draft spot. But his finishes at 17, 16 and 14 don't count because he was a 3rd round selection.

But Howard was a 5th Round pick (150 overall.) And he had two RB1 seasons, a RB2 season, then was slowed by injuries and changing teams. Those three seasons though would be gold if Spiller does something like that. That makes one guy in the past 6 years who was drafted in the 4th or later and had multiple RB1 seasons.

Spiller: "So you're saying there's a chance!"

[MacDaddy123]

For a contender who hopefully won't need either's production in 2022, which player would you rather have?

While neither would project as a regular starter for me in '22, we all know RB depth is key to any championship run. It's very possible my team will need a 4th/5th RB to step up and contribute this season, so I can't totally base this on 2023 and beyond.

Thanks for all the replies to help me consider this. After reading the responses in this thread, some in the Spiller thread, other threads, and sources on other sites, I've decided to hold off on making any move.


While I'm hopeful that Singletary can maintain his end of the '21 season pace, I'm not very optimistic that he will consistently be that good. It will be a great surprise to me if Singletary can be a consistent T20RB, and if he's not he probably won't start for me hardly at all.

OTOH, after reviewing the past few NFL drafts, the outcomes for RBs drafted in the 4th round or later is overwhelmingly uninspiring. Basically no one in that situation ever (ever ever) plays an entire season as a T24RB. Not just their rookie seasons, but never in their entire careers.

.5PPR results using FantasyPros results for 4th round and later
2021 Draft: EMitchell RB25, Michael Carter RB29, CHubbard RB33, RStevenson RB40, Gainwell RB42
2020 Draft: None worth mentioning
2019 Draft: JHill RB73
2018 Draft: Hines RB33,RB44,RB20,RB53; Edmonds RB75,RB54,RB28,RB35
2017 Draft: SPerine RB44,worse&worse; Cohen RB37,RB13,RB37; JamWilliams RB28,RB44,RB34,RB39,RB43

Singletary: RB31,RB34,RB20

Other than Cohen having a great second season in 2018, no one on that list really jumps out as a great "overcame his 4th-or-later draft position" story. These are all guys we roster and hope we never have to start on a regular basis. Hines had/has some value in a zeroRB strategy, but overall? Blah!

And no one has done better than Singletary. He was also drafted in the 3rd round and was the 5th overall RB selected, so his draft position isn't in the same bucket as those other guys.

As much as I respect what Spiller did in college and as much as I love his landing spot, the results above are hard to ignore. Maybe Spiller will be the one to break the mold, Ekeler will get injured, and Spiller will have a season like Cohen did in 2018. But that seems like more of a longshot than I first thought.

Looks like I'm better off sticking with a guy who was a RB2 in 2021 and will likely have a larger role in 2022. For now, Singletary it is.

I am not trying to change your mind, only noting the omittance of Aaron Jones (5th) and Chris Carson (7th) in 2017.
As well as Phillip Lindsay (UDFA) in 2018 and Tony Pollard (4th) in 2019.

[Anteaters]

I am not trying to change your mind, only noting the omittance of Aaron Jones (5th) and Chris Carson (7th) in 2017.
As well as Phillip Lindsay (UDFA) in 2018 and Tony Pollard (4th) in 2019.

Jones, Carson and Lindsay were BIG omissions from my list. Each had multiple T20RB seasons. Adding them back in makes a difference.

Pollard's a good guy to keep watching, to see if he ever makes it to true fantasy relevance.

Thanks for the corrections.

[dark_knite03]

Robinson(UDFA) should be in the list as well .

[meineymoe]

Only Singletary is currently on my team. I can swap Singletary for Spiller or Pierce with a click.

Are you saying this is a free agent move? Then I agree with dumping a dback for Spiller, or dumping 2 and picking up Pierce as well. At the beginning of the NFL season, you can decide which one you need to cut if you need an idp.

-oo-

[Anteaters]

Only Singletary is currently on my team. I can swap Singletary for Spiller or Pierce with a click.

Are you saying this is a free agent move? Then I agree with dumping a dback for Spiller, or dumping 2 and picking up Pierce as well. At the beginning of the NFL season, you can decide which one you need to cut if you need an idp.

-oo-

There are positional caps. If I want to pick up a RB, I have to cut a RB. For my team, the only RB I'd consider cutting in this scenario is Singletary.

To others: Not looking for a discussion about positional caps. Some hate them, some don't care. I'm okay with the limit, because rules are rules and the goal is to win within the rules, not for me to whine and complain about the rules.

[meineymoe]

Only Singletary is currently on my team. I can swap Singletary for Spiller or Pierce with a click.

Are you saying this is a free agent move? Then I agree with dumping a dback for Spiller, or dumping 2 and picking up Pierce as well. At the beginning of the NFL season, you can decide which one you need to cut if you need an idp.

-oo-

There are positional caps. If I want to pick up a RB, I have to cut a RB. For my team, the only RB I'd consider cutting in this scenario is Singletary.

To others: Not looking for a discussion about positional caps. Some hate them, some don't care. I'm okay with the limit, because rules are rules and the goal is to win within the rules, not for me to whine and complain about the rules.

So you've got 4 top 15 rbs in a league that only has 60 rbs. I think I'd hang onto Singletary, who's probably in the top 30, as a solid depth piece. Chances are the guys you're looking at will still be available closer to the season, or someone else will catch rookie fever and cut a decent rb option for you to consider.

Good luck!
-oo-

[Anteaters]

So you've got 4 top 15 rbs in a league that only has 60 rbs. I think I'd hang onto Singletary, who's probably in the top 30, as a solid depth piece. Chances are the guys you're looking at will still be available closer to the season, or someone else will catch rookie fever and cut a decent rb option for you to consider.

Good luck!
-oo-

It would be great if it turns out I have 4 of the top 15. That would help me make it to the championship game. Of course, having 4 RB1 quality RBs will make it more difficult to choose starters each week. And if decide to start 3RBs, I may end up with an equally difficult choice of deciding which WR to bench. But I guess it's better to have those problems than worrying which crappy RB/WR has to start for me week after week.

Right now I'm leaning toward keeping Singletary. It's just too easy to look at the safe floor he provides. And there is the chance he gets a year or two of Ekeler-like production after his Ekeler-like decent-but-not-exciting two-year apprenticeship as a smaller RB. Not that I'm expecting a 2021 Ekeler year of 1500yds+20TDs. But I don't think it's a wild fantasy to hope for 1400yds+12TDs from Singletary as his best case scenario. Devin had 1100yds+8TDs last year. I'm hoping for only a small improvement as he should earn more touches in 2022.

BUT, I STILL WANT TO GET SPILLER!!!!
I never hope for an injury to one of my players, especially at RB. However, if one of my RBs hits the IL, I'm definitely picking up Spiller.

[meineymoe]

If you can swap a Waddle plus one of your rbs for wr Jefferson, then you could pick up Spiller to fill that slot. You might end up starting wr more often in the flex, but that's not a bad thing in a ppr.

Good luck!
-oo-

[Anteaters]

If you can swap a Waddle plus one of your rbs for wr Jefferson, then you could pick up Spiller to fill that slot. You might end up starting wr more often in the flex, but that's not a bad thing in a ppr.

Good luck!
-oo-

It would be great to add JJ to Chase+Lamb. The JJ owner is a fan of UNC, so I might be able to package Waddle+Javonte for JJ. But that seems steep to me. I'll have to see if something could be worked out. The good news is he's an active trader.

[murphysxm]

It would be great to add JJ to Chase+Lamb. The JJ owner is a fan of UNC, so I might be able to package Waddle+Javonte for JJ. But that seems steep to me.

not to me, I would do this easily

[Mjvb5]

It would be great to add JJ to Chase+Lamb. The JJ owner is a fan of UNC, so I might be able to package Waddle+Javonte for JJ. But that seems steep to me.

not to me, I would do this easily

In a standard league it's steep but given the setting I'll take the stud too