Dynasty League Football Forum

In a 12 team 1 QB PPR IDP Draft, what is the safest pick to land Spiller.

I don't want to pick him too early, I have seen him going between 2.03-2.12 normally, but I have seen him go as high as 1.06.

I have picks 1.03, 1.09, 1.13 (bonus) , 2.03, 2.09.

As of now I am considering taking him at 1.13, because I feel that Spiller is only 50/50 chance to be there at 2.03.
I don't really want to get dragged into a Spiller debate, but let's just say that Spiller is RB3 on my draft board.

I am even a little nervous that Spiller may not make it to 1.13, because Sleeper has Spiller rated at 1.09.
Yet I think with all of the disrespect on Spiller's name, that there is a 90+% chance that he is still there at 1.13.

I realize that there is a 99.999% chance Spiller is there at 1.09, but I am thinking I could get Skyy Moore or George Pickens there, and probably still get Spiller at 1.13.

Thoughts?

The 1.13 looks like the pick for me if you want to make sure you get him. I grabbed him with the 1.11 in my 1 QB main league.

1.09 to be certain.
1.13 carries some risk of losing him
2.03 is less than 50% shot at him
2.09 virtually no chance at landing Spiller

Gator Sens wrote: ↑Mon Jun 13, 2022 6:39 am The 1.13 looks like the pick for me if you want to make sure you get him. I grabbed him with the 1.11 in my 1 QB main league.

See, that is my concern, that someone grabs Spiller at 1.11 or 1.12.
Maybe I have to take him at 1.09.
Probably not worth the difference in WR level to wait until 1.13 to take him.

I'm thinking at 1.09 I'm picking between Skyy Moore or George Pickens, and I am not really a Christian Watson fan.
So if I take Spiller at 1.09, then at 1.13 I am probably picking between Pickens and Dotson, figuring that if I take Spiller at 1.09, Skyy Moore, Watson, and Cook will go in the 1.10, 1.11, 1.12 range.

Only thing that would throw a wrench in this for me is if somehow Burks or Jameson Williams falls to 1.09.

MacDaddy123 wrote: ↑Mon Jun 13, 2022 8:15 pm
Only thing that would throw a wrench in this for me is if somehow Burks or Jameson Williams falls to 1.09.

I’d like to have that wrench thrown into my plans.

Valhalla wrote: ↑Tue Jun 14, 2022 4:56 am

MacDaddy123 wrote: ↑Mon Jun 13, 2022 8:15 pm
Only thing that would throw a wrench in this for me is if somehow Burks or Jameson Williams falls to 1.09.

I’d like to have that wrench thrown into my plans.

Yeah, me too.
I'd probably look to trade 2.03 + 2.09 to move up to 1.10 then.

Anteaters wrote: ↑Mon Jun 13, 2022 7:43 am 1.09 to be certain.
1.13 carries some risk of losing him
2.03 is less than 50% shot at him
2.09 virtually no chance at landing Spiller

I think the 1.13 would require a Spiller truther to lose him and you’re probably more like 75% likely to get him at 2.03 and maybe a 10% chance he falls to 2.09.

@op That said, look at the rosters picking and do you know the owners? Do they need RBs? A lot of this sort of thing depends on knowing your leaguemates. To me, it’s a bad pick to take Spiller at 1.09. It’s a bit of an overdraft at 1.13, but defensible. I really like Spiller, but i held out to the 1.17 in a league of competent owners. I would similarly hold until 2.03 in your position unless I was prettt sure I had competition for him that had a pick ahead of that spot.

Why do you want to guarantee that you land Spiller? If he’s like your favorite player, and you just HAVE to have him on your roster, then fine.

But I would strongly suggest - don’t try and land specific players (other than maybe in the top handful of picks). Land players you like, AT A GOOD VALUE.

I like Calvin Austin this year as a sleeper taken on day 3. But that doesn’t mean I was going to take him in the 2nd round. If any owner would have taken him in the 2nd, I would have been thankful that someone on my rankings list got pushed down to me.

Spiller looks like a nice stash prospect. Wide open path to being the #2 back in LA. Good prospect heading into this spring. But, remember - dude was almost a 5th rounder. Would you consider taking a 5th rounder in the late 1st? I would hope not.

#RantOver

lukkynumber13 wrote: ↑Fri Jun 17, 2022 12:19 am Why do you want to guarantee that you land Spiller? If he’s like your favorite player, and you just HAVE to have him on your roster, then fine.

But I would strongly suggest - don’t try and land specific players (other than maybe in the top handful of picks). Land players you like, AT A GOOD VALUE.

I like Calvin Austin this year as a sleeper taken on day 3. But that doesn’t mean I was going to take him in the 2nd round. If any owner would have taken him in the 2nd, I would have been thankful that someone on my rankings list got pushed down to me.

Spiller looks like a nice stash prospect. Wide open path to being the #2 back in LA. Good prospect heading into this spring. But, remember - dude was almost a 5th rounder. Would you consider taking a 5th rounder in the late 1st? I would hope not.

#RantOver

That is normally how I operate, patience, and take what falls to me.
However, I feel like Spiller is being slept on big time.
Spiller is my RB3 in this draft class.

As for value, I like Spiller at 1.09 better than Walker at 1.03.
As stated earlier, I have seen Spiller go as high as 1.06.

There are 2 different ways to approach the draft, and I kind of mix them a bit.
1) Be patient, and take whoever falls to you.
2) Get your guys.

In a Dynasty startup Draft in 2021, I "reached" and took Jonathan Taylor at 1.04, even though most rankings had JT in the 8-12 range.
Sometimes reaching for your guy works out.

As for 5th round picks in the NFL Draft, Aaron Jones, Tyreek Hill, and Stefon Diggs have turned out alright.

I realize where Spiller has been going in most drafts, however, Sleeper has Spiller ranked at 1.09.
That is my concern. If Spiller was ranked at 2.03-2.06, like he is on a lot of boards, I'd be fine waiting until 1.13.
Sleeper is different though. Sleeper is not sleeping on Spiller.

ericanadian wrote: ↑Thu Jun 16, 2022 8:49 pm

Anteaters wrote: ↑Mon Jun 13, 2022 7:43 am 1.09 to be certain.
1.13 carries some risk of losing him
2.03 is less than 50% shot at him
2.09 virtually no chance at landing Spiller

I think the 1.13 would require a Spiller truther to lose him and you’re probably more like 75% likely to get him at 2.03 and maybe a 10% chance he falls to 2.09.

@op That said, look at the rosters picking and do you know the owners? Do they need RBs? A lot of this sort of thing depends on knowing your leaguemates. To me, it’s a bad pick to take Spiller at 1.09. It’s a bit of an overdraft at 1.13, but defensible. I really like Spiller, but i held out to the 1.17 in a league of competent owners. I would similarly hold until 2.03 in your position unless I was prettt sure I had competition for him that had a pick ahead of that spot.

Good point about knowing your league-mates, and they all love RB's.
0% chance Spiller falls to 2.09, 15% chance he falls to 2.03.
Spiller is probably 50/50 at 1.13, and 90+% at 1.09.

This league is on the Sleeper app, and Sleeper has Spiller ranked at 1.09, which is why I am concerned that if I get cute, someone at 1.10, 1.11, or 1.12 might grab him.

I am aware that other sites have Spiller lower.
Spiller is my RB3 in this draft class, and I think that Spiller at 1.09 is a better value than Walker at 1.03.
I'd love to get Hall, but that's not happening. Hall will go at 1.01. Walker might even go at 1.02 knowing how much these guys love RB's.

MacDaddy123 wrote: ↑Fri Jun 17, 2022 2:15 am

ericanadian wrote: ↑Thu Jun 16, 2022 8:49 pm

Anteaters wrote: ↑Mon Jun 13, 2022 7:43 am 1.09 to be certain.
1.13 carries some risk of losing him
2.03 is less than 50% shot at him
2.09 virtually no chance at landing Spiller

I think the 1.13 would require a Spiller truther to lose him and you’re probably more like 75% likely to get him at 2.03 and maybe a 10% chance he falls to 2.09.

@op That said, look at the rosters picking and do you know the owners? Do they need RBs? A lot of this sort of thing depends on knowing your leaguemates. To me, it’s a bad pick to take Spiller at 1.09. It’s a bit of an overdraft at 1.13, but defensible. I really like Spiller, but i held out to the 1.17 in a league of competent owners. I would similarly hold until 2.03 in your position unless I was prettt sure I had competition for him that had a pick ahead of that spot.

Good point about knowing your league-mates, and they all love RB's.
0% chance Spiller falls to 2.09, 15% chance he falls to 2.03.
Spiller is probably 50/50 at 1.13, and 90+% at 1.09.

This league is on the Sleeper app, and Sleeper has Spiller ranked at 1.09, which is why I am concerned that if I get cute, someone at 1.10, 1.11, or 1.12 might grab him.

I am aware that other sites have Spiller lower.
Spiller is my RB3 in this draft class, and I think that Spiller at 1.09 is a better value than Walker at 1.03.
I'd love to get Hall, but that's not happening. Hall will go at 1.01. Walker might even go at 1.02 knowing how much these guys love RB's.

It’s entirely possible that Sleeper just didn’t update their rankings from before the draft. I have Spiller as my 1.10 so 1.09 isn’t terrible value to me. 1.06 means you’re leaving one of the top receivers (London, Olave, Burks, Williams & Wilson), so I’d have a lot of difficulty going that high, but 1.09 isn’t outlandish to me.

1.09 is fine if he is your guy. The WR you take at 1.13 won't be that much different than 1.09 unless somebody crazy drops

murphysxm wrote: ↑Fri Jun 17, 2022 6:19 am 1.09 is fine if he is your guy. The WR you take at 1.13 won't be that much different than 1.09 unless somebody crazy drops

That is what I am thinking right now.
I will take Spiller at 1.09 unless Jameson Williams or Treylon Burks somehow drop to 1.09.
Either Dotson, Pickens, or Watson will probably still be available at 1.13.

Most of what ive seen on spiller has him going between 2.4 ans 2.10 in SF

Mjvb5 wrote: ↑Mon Jun 20, 2022 11:46 am Most of what ive seen on spiller has him going between 2.4 ans 2.10 in SF

That is where I have seen him in many site projections.
However, my league is on the Sleeper app, and Sleeper has Spiller at 1.09.
So I am really only interested in hearing where Spiller has gone in a Sleeper draft.

Thanks though.