Somewhat early 2024 Draft thread

[81-]

I pick at 4 in the only league where I'm going to have a shot at him, so thankfully won't be forced to make that decision for myself. I actually do think I prefer Maye to Daniels regardless of destination. Daniels running game is going to be a cheat code, but the fact it took him 5 years to really breakout and his size (with running being his best asset) both worry me.

Took Burrow just as long. How you arrive at greatness is less important than staying there.

Did it really?
Didn't Burrow spend the first 3 years as a back-up, getting junk time and injury fill-ins? Where as Daniels has been a starter for 4/5 years?

beat out by JT Barrett and Dwayne Haskins. To be fair, Haskins did toss 50 tuddies that year.

[mild]

Happy 9 days (and one hour) to the Draft Day to all who celebrate!

[Shcritters]

Did it really?
Didn't Burrow spend the first 3 years as a back-up, getting junk time and injury fill-ins? Where as Daniels has been a starter for 4/5 years?

There's some good Arizona State years in there for Daniels if you care to look. Definitely not "complete bum" status.

It wasn't just the 5th year.

I’m ’all-out’ on Daniels. The track record of QBs his age coming into the league is horrendous. Burrow is basically the ONLY one who has been successful out of like 10… I don’t like those odds, would rather someone else play that one out.

[Orenthal Shames]

As someone who's never seen any of his tape, where are we on Jonathan Brooks. I get he was behind Bijan, but is not beating out Roschon a knock, given he's looked absolutely mediocre in the NFL?

[Shcritters]

As someone who's never seen any of his tape, where are we on Jonathan Brooks. I get he was behind Bijan, but is not beating out Roschon a knock, given he's looked absolutely mediocre in the NFL?

Everything I’ve seen is that Brooks compares almost on par with Bijan from a statistical perspective at Texas. The Q is his recovery. He’ll be a year-2 riser.

[81-]

Did it really?
Didn't Burrow spend the first 3 years as a back-up, getting junk time and injury fill-ins? Where as Daniels has been a starter for 4/5 years?

There's some good Arizona State years in there for Daniels if you care to look. Definitely not "complete bum" status.

It wasn't just the 5th year.

I’m ’all-out’ on Daniels. The track record of QBs his age coming into the league is horrendous. Burrow is basically the ONLY one who has been successful out of like 10… I don’t like those odds, would rather someone else play that one out.

I suspect he will be at the top of my draft board when I pick... If he makes it that far. Absolute steal of the draft.

Or a massive flop. Time shall tell.

[wickerkat1212]

As someone who's never seen any of his tape, where are we on Jonathan Brooks. I get he was behind Bijan, but is not beating out Roschon a knock, given he's looked absolutely mediocre in the NFL?

He is my RB1.

[trc]

Did it really?
Didn't Burrow spend the first 3 years as a back-up, getting junk time and injury fill-ins? Where as Daniels has been a starter for 4/5 years?

There's some good Arizona State years in there for Daniels if you care to look. Definitely not "complete bum" status.

It wasn't just the 5th year.

Didn't argue if the stats were good or bad - only the notion that it took Burrow 5 years to become good. Which isn't wrong as he was in college for 5 years, though he only had 2 seasons as an actual starter. Daniels had at least 4 seasons as a starter, injured in the 2nd season perhaps?
I simply believe you develop way more as a player when playing actual games than when you are holding a clip-board. Especially at that young age.

[tstafford]

There's some good Arizona State years in there for Daniels if you care to look. Definitely not "complete bum" status.

It wasn't just the 5th year.

I’m ’all-out’ on Daniels. The track record of QBs his age coming into the league is horrendous. Burrow is basically the ONLY one who has been successful out of like 10… I don’t like those odds, would rather someone else play that one out.

I suspect he will be at the top of my draft board when I pick... If he makes it that far. Absolute steal of the draft.

Or a massive flop. Time shall tell.

I'm pretty close to this analysis as well. Feels like Daniels is high ceiling/low floor. Maye does feel a bit safer - like worst case he's a QB2 in SF for a good long while. I have the 1.03 in my SF league and will have a tough choice to make.

[BabyChark23]

I’m ’all-out’ on Daniels. The track record of QBs his age coming into the league is horrendous. Burrow is basically the ONLY one who has been successful out of like 10… I don’t like those odds, would rather someone else play that one out.

I suspect he will be at the top of my draft board when I pick... If he makes it that far. Absolute steal of the draft.

Or a massive flop. Time shall tell.

I'm pretty close to this analysis as well. Feels like Daniels is high ceiling/low floor. Maye does feel a bit safer - like worst case he's a QB2 in SF for a good long while. I have the 1.03 in my SF league and will have a tough choice to make.

Yeah, I’m at 1.02 and have to choose between MHJR and QB. It’s a 2QB league (not SF). My QBs are Herbert, TLaw, Levis, so I’m leaning Marvin. However I suspect that Levis is a longshot to be a starter past this year, so there’s that…

[Bronco Billy]

As someone who's never seen any of his tape, where are we on Jonathan Brooks. I get he was behind Bijan, but is not beating out Roschon a knock, given he's looked absolutely mediocre in the NFL?

Everything I’ve seen is that Brooks compares almost on par with Bijan from a statistical perspective at Texas. The Q is his recovery. He’ll be a year-2 riser.

Say what? Brooks doesn’t compare remotely to Bijan, stats-wise at TX or otherwise. He was the product of having an outstanding O line, much like Roschon was. I’m expecting he’s going to get exposed at the NFL level, much like Roschon has been.

[81-]

As someone who's never seen any of his tape, where are we on Jonathan Brooks. I get he was behind Bijan, but is not beating out Roschon a knock, given he's looked absolutely mediocre in the NFL?

Everything I’ve seen is that Brooks compares almost on par with Bijan from a statistical perspective at Texas. The Q is his recovery. He’ll be a year-2 riser.

Say what? Brooks doesn’t compare remotely to Bijan, stats-wise at TX or otherwise. He was the product of having an outstanding O line, much like Roschon was. I’m expecting he’s going to get exposed at the NFL level, much like Roschon has been.

exposed? a 4th round rb? the 8th one taken? exposed?

take off the green glasses and cheese hat for a sec

[Bronco Billy]

Everything I’ve seen is that Brooks compares almost on par with Bijan from a statistical perspective at Texas. The Q is his recovery. He’ll be a year-2 riser.

Say what? Brooks doesn’t compare remotely to Bijan, stats-wise at TX or otherwise. He was the product of having an outstanding O line, much like Roschon was. I’m expecting he’s going to get exposed at the NFL level, much like Roschon has been.

exposed? a 4th round rb? the 8th one taken? exposed?

take off the green glasses and cheese hat for a sec

Stop. Geez. Not everything is based around your beloved Bears, as hard as that is to believe for the Bears diehards here.

Roschon was being drafted as rookie RB6 in the middle of FF drafts Rd 2, one RB behind Miller. And there were enough owners who thought they stole him there because of his UT work despite how slow he was getting into seams and could not create for himself.

Check here for rookie ADPs last year if you would like:
https://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/adp/rookies-rb.php

Oh, look - BEFORE CHI drafted him last year:

I sure hope this information gets wide spread. Johnson is very slow at the point of attack and requires a wide seam at a point where he doesn’t have to adjust laterally to succeed. There’s no creativity on his part and if he needs to adjust at the LoS laterally at all it’s painful to watch - his momentum comes almost to a complete halt as he takes multiple choppy steps to re-aim his point of attack. In the NFL that hole will be closed before he ever gets a chance to use it. His vision in not good, his footwork is very linear, and his decisiveness/burst are not good. He does keep his hips and shoulders square.

If he does manage to get to the second level with a head of steam he can be a load to deal with, but tacklers that dropped to his knees/ankles brought him down readily. Saw some ball security issues in the open field.

I’m not seeing a RB who is going to do well at the next level.

[Dynasty DeLorean]

Did it really?
Didn't Burrow spend the first 3 years as a back-up, getting junk time and injury fill-ins? Where as Daniels has been a starter for 4/5 years?

There's some good Arizona State years in there for Daniels if you care to look. Definitely not "complete bum" status.

It wasn't just the 5th year.

I’m ’all-out’ on Daniels. The track record of QBs his age coming into the league is horrendous. Burrow is basically the ONLY one who has been successful out of like 10… I don’t like those odds, would rather someone else play that one out.

While that is true, the track record for QBs with his college qbr is excellent.

College QBR

All Players with (adjusted) College QBR of 94+ since 2004
Jayden Daniels
Mac Jones
Joe Burrow
Tua
Kyler Murray
Russel Wilson
Andrew Luck (93.8)

Don’t overthink it

[81-]

Say what? Brooks doesn’t compare remotely to Bijan, stats-wise at TX or otherwise. He was the product of having an outstanding O line, much like Roschon was. I’m expecting he’s going to get exposed at the NFL level, much like Roschon has been.

exposed? a 4th round rb? the 8th one taken? exposed?

take off the green glasses and cheese hat for a sec

Stop. Geez. Not everything is based around your beloved Bears, as hard as that is to believe for the Bears diehards here.

Roschon was being drafted as rookie RB6 in the middle of FF drafts Rd 2, one RB behind Miller. And there were enough owners who thought they stole him there because of his UT work despite how slow he was getting into seams and could not create for himself.

Check here for rookie ADPs last year if you would like:
https://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/adp/rookies-rb.php

Oh, look - BEFORE CHI drafted him last year:

I sure hope this information gets wide spread. Johnson is very slow at the point of attack and requires a wide seam at a point where he doesn’t have to adjust laterally to succeed. There’s no creativity on his part and if he needs to adjust at the LoS laterally at all it’s painful to watch - his momentum comes almost to a complete halt as he takes multiple choppy steps to re-aim his point of attack. In the NFL that hole will be closed before he ever gets a chance to use it. His vision in not good, his footwork is very linear, and his decisiveness/burst are not good. He does keep his hips and shoulders square.

If he does manage to get to the second level with a head of steam he can be a load to deal with, but tacklers that dropped to his knees/ankles brought him down readily. Saw some ball security issues in the open field.

I’m not seeing a RB who is going to do well at the next level.

has nothing to do with being a bears fan. i didn't target him, nor do i think he is/woud be great. Point again, he was the 8th rb taken in the nfl draft in the 4th round. if those guys hit, great, but it's not like you build a team around those guys. he was pretty much what was expected. now sure how being what he was expected to be is being exposed. he'll plod along for a couple of more years and then move on to the real world. i don't disagree with your overall assessment from last year. he gets what is blocked. anyways.... back to the 2024 draft... and how Danials will be a steal.