Somewhat early 2024 Draft thread

[FantasyFreak]

I'm not touching Legette. 5th year breakout, did nothing before that.

[YouMightDieTryin]

I have #6 in a single qb league. Vanilla scoring. Who’s good and going to be there?

You're currently on the outside looking in of the first major tier break in single QB. You're hoping that someone falls to you like Odunze or Bowers. More likely you're looking at Egbuka and Keon Coleman.

https://keeptradecut.com/devy-rankings? ... s=WR|RB|TE

If you put "2024" into the search bar of that, it'll filter and give you a quick and dirty idea of the current landscape.

Keon Coleman is still sitting low on KTC. (What's his best comp?)
I'm still a bigger fan of Tez Walker myself over Shipley/Franklin, but in line with Worthy (maybe over).
Adonai Mitchell should creep up as well after testing.

Man I really need Henderson to declare this year.

Onward to 2025!

[mild]

For those that are scared to take Bowers high because of Pitts just remember what Pitts was valued at after his rookie season. If he puts up 1k yards he'll be valued at 3 1sts. Obviously that's not a given but definitely very realistic and probably more likely than him busting.

Gonna use this post as a jumping off point. I loved me some Kyle Pitts (as you all well know) but not over Chase. Even still: I've learnt my lesson on rookie TE's with premium picks. The juice just ain't worth the squeeze.

Borrowing this from Reddit - "Brock Bowers vs. Rome Odunze"

Premise:

"Assuming MHJ and Nabers go ahead of them, who would you rather have between Bowers and Odunze? Both should be 1st rounders and have great profiles. Would you be scared of taking a TE high after Pitts?"

And the absolute banger of a reply here by "JJettasDad"

Its Odunze and its a non discussion.

​People need to realize that taking a TE in round 1 is not a good idea. Especially top half of round 1. Its too big of a crapshoot. We have seen guys like Eric Ebron and OJ Howard who were fantastic prospects at TE completely bust. Its a hard position to play, its a hard position to learn. It takes guys years to work into that role most of the time.

​And the big reason why its a bad idea is because:

TE6: Cole Kmet - 145 pts
TE15: Logan Thomas - 102 pts

​Thats only 43 pts over the course of 14 weeks... the difference is basically nothing.

​Thats why you trade for a TE not draft one. There are tiers to this season

​Kelce/Hockenson - 190s
Laoporta/Kittle/Engram - 170s
6 guys - from 145-120s

If you dont get a top 3-4 TE then it doesnt make it worth it. Odunze will probably outscore all of these guys outside of 3 or 4 of them assuming he works out.

​Ive been playing fantasy for 24 yrs and Dynasty for about 8... stay away from early 1st Tes. Take the WRs. you can trade for a TE you know is proven. Its not worth the risk.

Even in TE premium i'm not taking Bowers. the only way i might take him over Udunze is in a 2TE league but even then i'm probably not.

There's simply not enough tangible output at the TE position to make it worth it if the goal is to put up points.

[Dynasty DeLorean]

For those that are scared to take Bowers high because of Pitts just remember what Pitts was valued at after his rookie season. If he puts up 1k yards he'll be valued at 3 1sts. Obviously that's not a given but definitely very realistic and probably more likely than him busting.

Gonna use this post as a jumping off point. I loved me some Kyle Pitts (as you all well know) but not over Chase. Even still: I've learnt my lesson on rookie TE's with premium picks. The juice just ain't worth the squeeze.

Borrowing this from Reddit - "Brock Bowers vs. Rome Odunze"

Premise:

"Assuming MHJ and Nabers go ahead of them, who would you rather have between Bowers and Odunze? Both should be 1st rounders and have great profiles. Would you be scared of taking a TE high after Pitts?"

And the absolute banger of a reply here by "JJettasDad"

Its Odunze and its a non discussion.

​People need to realize that taking a TE in round 1 is not a good idea. Especially top half of round 1. Its too big of a crapshoot. We have seen guys like Eric Ebron and OJ Howard who were fantastic prospects at TE completely bust. Its a hard position to play, its a hard position to learn. It takes guys years to work into that role most of the time.

​And the big reason why its a bad idea is because:

TE6: Cole Kmet - 145 pts
TE15: Logan Thomas - 102 pts

​Thats only 43 pts over the course of 14 weeks... the difference is basically nothing.

​Thats why you trade for a TE not draft one. There are tiers to this season

​Kelce/Hockenson - 190s
Laoporta/Kittle/Engram - 170s
6 guys - from 145-120s

If you dont get a top 3-4 TE then it doesnt make it worth it. Odunze will probably outscore all of these guys outside of 3 or 4 of them assuming he works out.

​Ive been playing fantasy for 24 yrs and Dynasty for about 8... stay away from early 1st Tes. Take the WRs. you can trade for a TE you know is proven. Its not worth the risk.

Even in TE premium i'm not taking Bowers. the only way i might take him over Udunze is in a 2TE league but even then i'm probably not.

There's simply not enough tangible output at the TE position to make it worth it if the goal is to put up points.

This is great but it’s also nonsense. The key is to draft good players in rookie drafts. You can’t go wrong drafting good players.

[mild]

This is great but it’s also nonsense. The key is to draft good players in rookie drafts. You can’t go wrong drafting good players.

I don't see it as nonsense. His points are salient if you game them out:

- the TE1 scores about as much as the WR20 (that's true as of right now this year)
- you probably aren't hitting on the next Travis Kelce, and your range of outcomes is anywhere from Pitts to Laporta to Noah Fant
- if you think you have a chance to take a WR that could be Top 12, or even just top 24 - then you probably should
- trading for the known commodity at TE is way safer
- trading for a premium TE that hasn't hit yet (like Pitts) is also the better way to play it in all likelihood

"Take good players" sure - but assuming there are two equally deserving players at the slot, it's fair to question their overall scoring upside based on what we know of their position and likely usage.

[Sriracha]

For those that are scared to take Bowers high because of Pitts just remember what Pitts was valued at after his rookie season. If he puts up 1k yards he'll be valued at 3 1sts. Obviously that's not a given but definitely very realistic and probably more likely than him busting.

Gonna use this post as a jumping off point. I loved me some Kyle Pitts (as you all well know) but not over Chase. Even still: I've learnt my lesson on rookie TE's with premium picks. The juice just ain't worth the squeeze.

Borrowing this from Reddit - "Brock Bowers vs. Rome Odunze"

Premise:

"Assuming MHJ and Nabers go ahead of them, who would you rather have between Bowers and Odunze? Both should be 1st rounders and have great profiles. Would you be scared of taking a TE high after Pitts?"

And the absolute banger of a reply here by "JJettasDad"

Its Odunze and its a non discussion.

​People need to realize that taking a TE in round 1 is not a good idea. Especially top half of round 1. Its too big of a crapshoot. We have seen guys like Eric Ebron and OJ Howard who were fantastic prospects at TE completely bust. Its a hard position to play, its a hard position to learn. It takes guys years to work into that role most of the time.

​And the big reason why its a bad idea is because:

TE6: Cole Kmet - 145 pts
TE15: Logan Thomas - 102 pts

​Thats only 43 pts over the course of 14 weeks... the difference is basically nothing.

​Thats why you trade for a TE not draft one. There are tiers to this season

​Kelce/Hockenson - 190s
Laoporta/Kittle/Engram - 170s
6 guys - from 145-120s

If you dont get a top 3-4 TE then it doesnt make it worth it. Odunze will probably outscore all of these guys outside of 3 or 4 of them assuming he works out.

​Ive been playing fantasy for 24 yrs and Dynasty for about 8... stay away from early 1st Tes. Take the WRs. you can trade for a TE you know is proven. Its not worth the risk.

Even in TE premium i'm not taking Bowers. the only way i might take him over Udunze is in a 2TE league but even then i'm probably not.

There's simply not enough tangible output at the TE position to make it worth it if the goal is to put up points.

This is great but it’s also nonsense. The key is to draft good players in rookie drafts. You can’t go wrong drafting good players.

The key point here is that there is more ambiguity than any other position (except maybe QB) when it comes to projecting TE production out of a college prospect.

Saying draft good players is obvious but also belies the point. You don't know if this TE prospect is a productive player until they do it on the field. Typical indicators like dominator rating, film, draft capital are far less predictive.

[Cameron Giles]

Bowers should be really good, but crazier things have happened at TE and there doesn't seem to be consistent indicators for foreshadowing production at TE. Definitely a risk to take him high, but he's such a unique talent that it's hard to imagine fading him to a spot of less risk.

In real football, spending a Top 10 pick on a TE is usually dumb.

[Shcritters]

Usually.

And how many mid/late 1st WRs bust every year? Usually about half of them.

There are three elite prospects in this draft - Caleb, MHJr, and Bowers. Maybe Nabers. I’d love any of those 3 mid-way through the first.

[wickerkat1212]

The only place I have a shot at him is in my 2TEP Superflex. I have two first-round picks, and right now the late one is the 1.06. That could get worse (don't ask, but the guy in 6th place has the 7th most potential points, so I think if he loses in the first round of the playoffs he is the 1.06 but if he wins it's later? IDK). I would absolutely take a shot on Bowers with that 1.06 pick in my 2TEP Superflex if he fell to me there. Over Odunze. But he may not make it to me at 1.06. Odunze may be my pick there, maybe Daniels QB. We'll see how it shakes out. I'm planning on taking Harrison at 1.02, unless the 1.01 takes him, and then I'll take Williams.

[Dynasty DeLorean]

This is great but it’s also nonsense. The key is to draft good players in rookie drafts. You can’t go wrong drafting good players.

I don't see it as nonsense. His points are salient if you game them out:

- the TE1 scores about as much as the WR20 (that's true as of right now this year)
- you probably aren't hitting on the next Travis Kelce, and your range of outcomes is anywhere from Pitts to Laporta to Noah Fant
- if you think you have a chance to take a WR that could be Top 12, or even just top 24 - then you probably should
- trading for the known commodity at TE is way safer
- trading for a premium TE that hasn't hit yet (like Pitts) is also the better way to play it in all likelihood

"Take good players" sure - but assuming there are two equally deserving players at the slot, it's fair to question their overall scoring upside based on what we know of their position and likely usage.

Equally deserving, sure. But is this what’s going on? Bowers and Oduntz are equal prospects? This is news to me…

[mild]

Equally deserving, sure. But is this what’s going on? Bowers and Oduntz are equal prospects? This is news to me…

I think a few of us are starting to get there, yeah. Still ages to go in this whole process. Odunze absolutely passes the smell test on first blush. Maybe dive into him a bit more if you're curious? I'd like to hear your take.

The draft capital is sounding like it's going to be relatively equal, both are being talked up as top-half of the draft sort of guys. Happy to re-evaluate if that changes.

Bowers is an amazing prospect, no doubt. But we have no garuantees that he will come in and demand a target share. He might end up being more Michael Mayer than Sam LaPorta - we just don't know, and it's so team-and-offense specific.

At least with a 1st round WR - there is no illusions as to what they are going to be asked to do. And either they can (Addison) or they can't (QJ). You won't die wondering. (Unless he lands on the Falcons)

[Cameron Giles]

Lazy analysis, but how many late declare WRs from the Pac 12 actually panned out?

I don't think I'd hesitate to take Bowers over Odunze. Odunze doesn't strike me as special as the moment.

[Sriracha]

Lazy analysis, but how many late declare WRs from the Pac 12 actually panned out?

I don't think I'd hesitate to take Bowers over Odunze. Odunze doesn't strike me as special as the moment.

Michael Pittman comes to mind.

Also, Odunze is still an early declare (r)Junior and broke out last year.

I'd also point out we're seeing a lot of late declares succeed recently; Perhaps because the COVID year threw off historical development/scouting curves.

[Cameron Giles]

Lazy analysis, but how many late declare WRs from the Pac 12 actually panned out?

I don't think I'd hesitate to take Bowers over Odunze. Odunze doesn't strike me as special as the moment.

Michael Pittman comes to mind.

Also, Odunze is still an early declare (r)Junior and broke out last year.

I'd also point out we're seeing a lot of late declares succeed recently; Perhaps because the COVID year threw off historical development/scouting curves.

He was draft eligible last year though as a RS Sophomore. Just lazy food for thought vs the 1st Round TE thing. But overall, I think Bowers as a talent and player is more unique than Odunze and higher upside given the position.

Now, Nabers vs Bowers is a legitimate beef.

[Sriracha]

Lazy analysis, but how many late declare WRs from the Pac 12 actually panned out?

I don't think I'd hesitate to take Bowers over Odunze. Odunze doesn't strike me as special as the moment.

Michael Pittman comes to mind.

Also, Odunze is still an early declare (r)Junior and broke out last year.

I'd also point out we're seeing a lot of late declares succeed recently; Perhaps because the COVID year threw off historical development/scouting curves.

He was draft eligible last year though as a RS Sophomore. Just lazy food for thought vs the 1st Round TE thing. But overall, I think Bowers as a talent and player is more unique than Odunze and higher upside given the position.

Now, Nabers vs Bowers is a legitimate beef.

Gonna need to wait for the combine with Odunze.

If he is legitimately 6’3 216 I’m intrigued.

I feel a Rashod Bateman coming though based on the way he looks on film