Christian Watson WR NDSU

[Ice]

Meet perhaps the best kept secret in this draft.

I recently moved him to 4th in my personal rankings and he has legit WR1 upside as he develops. He has great size and speed with large hands to pluck the ball out of the air. He has incredible foot quickness for a 6'5" WR. He should add some weight as he ages and develops.

He does come from a football background. His father played DB for 5 years in the NFL.

Not a lot of chatter but I would pull the trigger on him in the 1.7 - 1.8 range of rookie drafts on upside alone. While a few have an NFL 2nd round grade on him, I think he goes round 1. He is clearly my #4 WR this draft.

He is going to fall in a lot of drafts given he came from a smaller school and doesn't get the press coverage.

[murphysxm]

doesn't get the press coverage.

It's funny, I keep see him rising because of all the press coverage and buzz he has gotten since he was possibly linked to KC. I don't see him sneaking up on many people at this point

[Bronco Billy]

It would not shock me in the least if one of the WR needy teams reached for him at the end of the 1st round. His size/speed/athleticism has some scouts drooling. He has a 99.6 RAS score - that’s one of the best ever in the 35 year history of RAS data. I’ve been seeing comparisons in his play style to Randy Moss. This guy is no secret to people who pay close attention.

There are very real red flags (and his athletic profile is going to make some teams flat out overlook them). He has a 25.2 BMI (the red flag threshold is 26.0). He didn’t breakout until age 21 despite playing at a non-FCS school. And his drop rate is not good at all. Oddly, his drops come on well thrown balls that end up within his frame where he really fights the ball, but on balls outside his frame where he has to extend and catch well away from his body he is very good.

The most closely aligned comp for him is Donte Moncrief, which is also not a real strong endorsement. He is the definition of a boom-or-bust prospect but I could see KC or GB looking at that ridiculous athletic profile matched to his length and making that 1st round reach, especially if WRs start flying off the board early, which is not a stretch giving the talent at the top and the WR emphasis in the NFL right now.

IMO there are too many negatives for me to drop a mid-first round pick on him in a FF draft even if he goes to a premium spot. I might miss out on what could be a future stud, but I’m so leery of his downside.

[Jfever]

Early to Mid 2nd round rookie pick in my opinion. A slight reach in the mid 1st. Great potential upside but his floor is potentially very low. The red flags are just as real as his attributes. I'm leery of bumping up late break out age wr too much and drafting these wr based off of good landing spots. I'd be a bit shocked if he landed in KC or GB. I'd be less shocked if he landed in Atl, NYJ, Houston, Det, or the Saints. Still... admittedly he has some good tape - albeit vs far lesser & younger (in comparison to his age) competition.

[Ice]

Early to Mid 2nd round rookie pick in my opinion. A slight reach in the mid 1st. Great potential upside but his floor is potentially very low. The red flags are just as real as his attributes. I'm leery of bumping up late break out age wr too much and drafting these wr based off of good landing spots. I'd be a bit shocked if he landed in KC or GB. I'd be less shocked if he landed in Atl, NYJ, Houston, Det, or the Saints. Still... admittedly he has some good tape - albeit vs far lesser & younger (in comparison to his age) competition.

I understand being conservative but compared to Olave who is a solid prospect in his own right;

Watson is 4 inches taller at 6'5"
Watson is faster @4.36 to 4.39
Watson's vertical is 38.5 to only 32 for Olave
Watson's broad jump is better @ 136 to 124.
Watson's hand size is 10 1/8 to 9.5

No doubt Olave has a better college pedigree but teams should fall in love with Watson's off the chart measurable traits and all GM's know players should get better with NFL coaching and experience.

In Dynasty when looking for the next big thing downstream it is really hard to pass on those type of given qualities. Given the bust factor after 1.5 or so in Dynasty I don't consider 1.7 range much of a reach personally in non SF leagues.

Just saying; For those that haven't really evaluated him; He is worth a look as a diamond in the rough sleeper potential stud in a few short years.

[StripesOfKC]

Another athlete who can't play WR

Please Veach don't do it

I get why NFL scouts love him but I'd really rather let someone else take the chance

[yinzername]

I like him, but as others have mentioned, breakout age is a sticking point for me of late. Currently i have him middle of my tier 2, about WR9

[MEuRaH]

He's quite the athlete based on his combine numbers. I don't love that he's from a smaller school, I don't love that he didn't start playing football until just 5-6 years ago (according to an answer from his own interview) and I don't love that the majority of his success came from deep passes. I think it's going to take a while to adjust to the pro game, if he does so at all.

If he lands on a team with a great coaching staff, I'll be paying attention and maybe pull the trigger in the late 2nd early 3rd. If he lands on a team that can't seem to develop rookie WRs over the years (Browns, Patriots, etc) I'll do a hard pass.

I hate most of this year's WR class, tbh.

[ThunderTung]

His athletic profile is interesting, and if I had any late firsts/early 2nds this year I might take a shot at him if he lands with a solid QB. But with my draft position right now, he's not even on my radar. Too many safer guys ahead of him for me. I have him ranked 7 just behind Moore.

I've had him as high as 5 in my rankings at one point, but he's starting to feel very Hakeem Butler-ish to me with all the hype starting to surround him. I have a feeling he'll be a late day 2 pick in the NFL, and someone in your league will reach for him in the first round, i'd be pretty content with just letting that happen lol

[Sriracha]

He's quite the athlete based on his combine numbers. I don't love that he's from a smaller school, I don't love that he didn't start playing football until just 5-6 years ago (according to an answer from his own interview) and I don't love that the majority of his success came from deep passes. I think it's going to take a while to adjust to the pro game, if he does so at all.

If he lands on a team with a great coaching staff, I'll be paying attention and maybe pull the trigger in the late 2nd early 3rd. If he lands on a team that can't seem to develop rookie WRs over the years (Browns, Patriots, etc) I'll do a hard pass.

I hate most of this year's WR class, tbh.

That actually makes me like him considerably more.

Means he's not even close to reaching his ceiling as route runner.

[Sriracha]

Early to Mid 2nd round rookie pick in my opinion. A slight reach in the mid 1st. Great potential upside but his floor is potentially very low. The red flags are just as real as his attributes. I'm leery of bumping up late break out age wr too much and drafting these wr based off of good landing spots. I'd be a bit shocked if he landed in KC or GB. I'd be less shocked if he landed in Atl, NYJ, Houston, Det, or the Saints. Still... admittedly he has some good tape - albeit vs far lesser & younger (in comparison to his age) competition.

I understand being conservative but compared to Olave who is a solid prospect in his own right;

Watson is 4 inches taller at 6'5"
Watson is faster @4.36 to 4.39
Watson's vertical is 38.5 to only 32 for Olave
Watson's broad jump is better @ 136 to 124.
Watson's hand size is 10 1/8 to 9.5

No doubt Olave has a better college pedigree but teams should fall in love with Watson's off the chart measurable traits and all GM's know players should get better with NFL coaching and experience.

In Dynasty when looking for the next big thing downstream it is really hard to pass on those type of given qualities. Given the bust factor after 1.5 or so in Dynasty I don't consider 1.7 range much of a reach personally in non SF leagues.

Just saying; For those that haven't really evaluated him; He is worth a look as a diamond in the rough sleeper potential stud in a few short years.

No doubt he's an intriguing prospect with a lot of upside... but I find it hard to rationalize ranking him that high given where he is right now.

WR7 feels about right.

[Dynasty DeLorean]

I know nothing about Watson but from the description it seems an awful lot like Denzel mims

[mild]

Another athlete who can't play WR

Please Veach don't do it

I get why NFL scouts love him but I'd really rather let someone else take the chance

We align, as per usual. Athletic metrics are fine, but there are plenty of lesser athletes that make hay in the NFL due to route craft and sure hands. I don't see either of those things watching Watson, and his highlight reels are a joke. This man is yet to see an NFL-level defender in coverage, not even close to it.

I am reminded of Jacob Harris, who had an RAS score exceeding that of even Kyle Pitts last year. It doesn't matter if you don't actually have refinement in your game.

I think pending landing spots in the draft, I'll be ready to make a bet with Ice that Drake London will have a better rookie season than Christian Watson. I would also push back on him being slept on - he's already been ranked Chris Simm's #2 WR in this class, and he was on the radar as soon as he ran his 40 at the combine.

[Bronco Billy]

I would also push back on him being slept on - he's already been ranked Chris Simm's #2 WR in this class, and he was on the radar as soon as he ran his 40 at the combine.

NFL Network has him projected to go to GB in Rd 1.

[alewilliam789]

I think if you are getting him at the 1.11/1.12 turn that’s correct value.

But Jameson Williams is going 1.6-1.8 and Watson is a better prospect in terms of hitting odds so...
Lol at least we know he’s explosive too