2022 Rookie Battles: B. Hall vs. K. Walker III

[Ice]

Ingram and Fournette apparently couldn't catch. Meanwhile they've both had big receiving seasons.

Fournette was a prolific receiver in college

I don't have Ingram's year in my model yet but Fournette hit market share of receiving yards thresholds every year he was healthy

Melvin Gordon had 22 receptions in 4 years at Wisconsin. 19 his senior year.

[Dynasty DeLorean]

Ingram and Fournette apparently couldn't catch. Meanwhile they've both had big receiving seasons.

Fournette was a prolific receiver in college

I don't have Ingram's year in my model yet but Fournette hit market share of receiving yards thresholds every year he was healthy

His catch totals were 7, 9 and 15 at LSU. People get way way too caught up in RB receptions. It's mostly about the system and just getting the reps.

Fournette had 19 receptions his 2nd year and 15 receptions in only 7 games his final season due to injury. As I said before, this was elite in terms of target percentage. Just to clarify.

[StripesOfKC]

This is Fournette:

https://twitter.com/DFBeanCounter/statu ... 81/photo/1

This is Kenneth Walker:

https://twitter.com/YZR_Fantasy/status/ ... 7929098240

The dotted line is an average share of RBs who hit top 12 seasons in PPR

Their receiving production is not similar in the slightest

[Sriracha]

I like Kenneth Walker and I view his ceiling as similar to Breece Hall's.

I'm not going to plant a flag either way in regards to his receiving ability. How effective he will be in the passing game remains to be seen and in the best case scenario he'll still be a situation dependent receiver.

Breece Hall is in a tier of his own for me because of the safety of his profile. I realize some film guy's aren't that impressed by him -- but like JT when an RB's analytical profile is this good I'm going to assume he figures things out at the next level.

If Walker hits on the upper ends of his spectrum and Hall hits on the lower end of his I could see a world where Walker is the better RB at the NFL level... but based on what we know now, Hall's simply the better prospect. Valuing Walker above Hall is akin to preferring Jameson Williams to the prospect Jamarr Chase.

[halfbaked88]

Breece Hall has zero red flags on his profile.

Kenneth Walker has one = College target share %

An argument for Walker as a better RB is generally an attempt to conceal, or flat out ignore, that fact.

There's really no amount of anecdotal evidence that's going to magically make Kenneth Walker's profile better than Hall's. The numbers in that area so vastly favor one player and the valuable nature of targets vs touches at the RB position it's just too much of a stat to misconceive.

As it stands, an RB with such an elite production profile such as Breece Hall very rarely busts. Walker's is still VERY good. If the debate is whether you should trade out of the 1.01 and trade back in an attempt to land Walker+23' 1st for example, then that's definitely reasonable. One I'm actually considering as someone with the 1.01.

But in in 1 v. 1 comparison it's really cut and dry. It's almost foolish to go against the consensus #1 at this point.

[mild]

Ingram and Fournette apparently couldn't catch. Meanwhile they've both had big receiving seasons.

We're playing probabilities. Feel free to keep betting the outliers whilst hoping for a different result than the data has shown to date. We will all wish you luck and good fortune in the wars ahead.

And I love Walker! But, for exactly who he is - a dominant 2-down banger that may have a chance to become a bell cow one day if he is given half the chance situationally and has the aforementioned skillset that we are currently unsure of.

Breece Hall has zero red flags on his profile.

Kenneth Walker has one = College target share %

Just one? You've glossed over Walker's first two years at Wake Forest. He technically broke out in his 2nd season thanks to TD volume, but he didn't truly start dominating until he transferred.

But while his final season was very impressive, we have to acknowledge the fact that Walker only dominated after he transferred to Michigan State. And though he did break out in his sophomore campaign, his two-year average of 0.86 yards per team play at Wake Forest leaves much to be desired. This is the part of Walker’s profile that takes a hit as both Hall and Spiller were much more involved for their respective teams in their first two seasons out of high school.

Meanwhile, Breece dominated right off the jump.

He finished his 2019 campaign accounting for 21.4% of his team’s total yards and 20.8% of their touchdowns. As a result, this would give Hall an impressive breakout age of 18.3 – which ranks in the 96th percentile since 2013.

[Ice]

Breece Hall has zero red flags on his profile.

Kenneth Walker has one = College target share %

An argument for Walker as a better RB is generally an attempt to conceal, or flat out ignore, that fact.

There's really no amount of anecdotal evidence that's going to magically make Kenneth Walker's profile better than Hall's. The numbers in that area so vastly favor one player and the valuable nature of targets vs touches at the RB position it's just too much of a stat to misconceive.

As it stands, an RB with such an elite production profile such as Breece Hall very rarely busts. Walker's is still VERY good. If the debate is whether you should trade out of the 1.01 and trade back in an attempt to land Walker+23' 1st for example, then that's definitely reasonable. One I'm actually considering as someone with the 1.01.

But in in 1 v. 1 comparison it's really cut and dry. It's almost foolish to go against the consensus #1 at this point.

I doubt either of these RB's go in round 1 in the NFL but my guess is they will go within 5-10 picks of each other in round 2. They are actually much closer than many are making them out to be and there are scouts/pundits that prefer Walker due to his burst on tape. If Walker goes to a predominately zone team he will be very good instantly. He is really good at one cut and go plays. My guess is these two will both go top 3 in one QB leagues and should in fantasy.

The Combine scout profile gives a 3/100 edge to Walker.

Walker looks to have better feet. Will he become more of receiving threat is the question but if he does he could easily be the best RB in this class sooner than later.

While I have Hall 1.1 .....barely..... there really is no consensus 1.1 in this class at RB or WR no matter how much a few want there to be a consensus pick.

[Sriracha]

Breece Hall has zero red flags on his profile.

Kenneth Walker has one = College target share %

An argument for Walker as a better RB is generally an attempt to conceal, or flat out ignore, that fact.

There's really no amount of anecdotal evidence that's going to magically make Kenneth Walker's profile better than Hall's. The numbers in that area so vastly favor one player and the valuable nature of targets vs touches at the RB position it's just too much of a stat to misconceive.

As it stands, an RB with such an elite production profile such as Breece Hall very rarely busts. Walker's is still VERY good. If the debate is whether you should trade out of the 1.01 and trade back in an attempt to land Walker+23' 1st for example, then that's definitely reasonable. One I'm actually considering as someone with the 1.01.

But in in 1 v. 1 comparison it's really cut and dry. It's almost foolish to go against the consensus #1 at this point.

I doubt either of these RB's go in round 1 in the NFL but my guess is they will go within 5-10 picks of each other in round 2. They are actually much closer than many are making them out to be and there are scouts/pundits that prefer Walker due to his burst on tape. If Walker goes to a predominately zone team he will be very good instantly. He is really good at one cut and go plays. My guess is these two will both go top 3 in one QB leagues and should in fantasy.

The Combine scout profile gives a 3/100 edge to Walker.

Walker looks to have better feet. Will he become more of receiving threat is the question but if he does he could easily be the best RB in this class sooner than later.

While I have Hall 1.1 .....barely..... there really is no consensus 1.1 in this class at RB or WR no matter how much a few want there to be a consensus pick.

I'm assuming you're looking at this purely from a film standpoint -- and on film I agree this is much closer with Walker taking the edge in some areas.

But from an analytical perspective these are nowhere near similar prospects. Hall has a true freshman breakout with 2 years of elite production. This multi year production profile is a much stronger indicator of future NFL success than one break out season.

[honcho55]

Imo it’s fairly clear Hall has the consensus atm, though admittedly not a landslide. Feels like real football analysts have it even closer?

Still seeing spiller ahead of one or both of em in a lot of ranks too. Unsure what to make of that.

[FantasyFreak]

Imo it’s fairly clear Hall has the consensus atm, though admittedly not a landslide. Feels like real football analysts have it even closer?

Still seeing spiller ahead of one or both of em in a lot of ranks too. Unsure what to make of that.

That those people don't know what they are talking about.

[Ice]

Breece Hall has zero red flags on his profile.

Kenneth Walker has one = College target share %

An argument for Walker as a better RB is generally an attempt to conceal, or flat out ignore, that fact.

There's really no amount of anecdotal evidence that's going to magically make Kenneth Walker's profile better than Hall's. The numbers in that area so vastly favor one player and the valuable nature of targets vs touches at the RB position it's just too much of a stat to misconceive.

As it stands, an RB with such an elite production profile such as Breece Hall very rarely busts. Walker's is still VERY good. If the debate is whether you should trade out of the 1.01 and trade back in an attempt to land Walker+23' 1st for example, then that's definitely reasonable. One I'm actually considering as someone with the 1.01.

But in in 1 v. 1 comparison it's really cut and dry. It's almost foolish to go against the consensus #1 at this point.

I doubt either of these RB's go in round 1 in the NFL but my guess is they will go within 5-10 picks of each other in round 2. They are actually much closer than many are making them out to be and there are scouts/pundits that prefer Walker due to his burst on tape. If Walker goes to a predominately zone team he will be very good instantly. He is really good at one cut and go plays. My guess is these two will both go top 3 in one QB leagues and should in fantasy.

The Combine scout profile gives a 3/100 edge to Walker.

Walker looks to have better feet. Will he become more of receiving threat is the question but if he does he could easily be the best RB in this class sooner than later.

While I have Hall 1.1 .....barely..... there really is no consensus 1.1 in this class at RB or WR no matter how much a few want there to be a consensus pick.

I'm assuming you're looking at this purely from a film standpoint -- and on film I agree this is much closer with Walker taking the edge in some areas.

But from an analytical perspective these are nowhere near similar prospects. Hall has a true freshman breakout with 2 years of elite production. This multi year production profile is a much stronger indicator of future NFL success than one break out season.

I am looking at it from a pure film perspective.

I don't put near the stock in what happened a few years ago as I do over the last year. Players develop their games at different times just like they mature at different times.

The breakout for Walker was his most recent 263 carries at 6.2 YPC for 1636 yards. That sample size is plenty big to study his skill set.

I do believe these two are close and will be drafted very close together. The Texans will probably take one in round 2. They need a solid RB in a big way as they rebuild that team.

[Jigga94]

Imo it’s fairly clear Hall has the consensus atm, though admittedly not a landslide. Feels like real football analysts have it even closer?

Still seeing spiller ahead of one or both of em in a lot of ranks too. Unsure what to make of that.

That those people don't know what they are talking about.

Ya I'd disregard those ranks

[mgscott]

I've given my opinion on here plenty but just want to speak up about analytics as many keep mentioning Hall having an elite analytic profile and bringing up analytics as to why Hall is a lock for NFL success and Walker is a question mark. Everyone has their own way that works for them with prospects. Analytics are good to use but can be overused and often the bar for thresholds can be adjusted to fit someones narrative. The good part are that they are objective and not subject to bias or human error. The problem I have with analytics, especially exclusively using analytics is that they are completely objective and don't take any context into account.

Hall should have a better statistical career profile vs Walker based on his situation. He came onto a team with no returning RB and no real competition for carries. ISU is a team that historically features and uses 1 RB and force feeds them throughout the game, even when the game is no longer close. They also benefit from playing in the Big 12 where they routinely face soft defenses. Hall typically struggled with the few good defenses he faced. ISU regularly uses their RBs in the passing game. If Hall is anywhere near a good RB he should be putting up good stats throughout his 3 yr career there. He was set up for success with his situation and put up numbers exhibiting that.

Walker at Wake Forest shared the backfield with another back before getting workhorse treatment at MSU his last year. ACC defenses are cewrtainly better than Big 12 and Big Ten much better. So Walker routinely faced better defenses throughout his career. Neither WF or MSU use their RBs in the passing game historically so Walker shouldn't have high catch numbers or shares. Walker had good results in his split time at WF and great results at MSU. Played against better defenses all 3 years and was elite his last year in a conference known for defense.

Subjectively, Walker looks like a much better back to me on film. More explosive and natural. Home run ability, great in open field and a good between the tackles runner that can slip thorugh small holes when needed. Hall looks clunky to me when having to make lateral moves or stopping and starting and gets tackled too easily against good teams. Both look solid enough catching the ball with limited route running. Hall is mediocre with pass blocking, Walker worse than that (likely the least important part of a RB prospect).

Either RB could flourish on the right team. I feel Walker will at minimum be a highly productive RB in a committee with the potential to be an elite back in the NFL. From what I see from Hall, he is much more dependent on a team that will feature him as the FT back and force him touches and could be forgetable in a commitee as he doesn't to anything elite in my opinion. I could easily be wrong, but his tape against good defenses is not great and shows what could be in the NFL.

Again, all my opinion.

[DynastyKing23]

I've given my opinion on here plenty but just want to speak up about analytics as many keep mentioning Hall having an elite analytic profile and bringing up analytics as to why Hall is a lock for NFL success and Walker is a question mark. Everyone has their own way that works for them with prospects. Analytics are good to use but can be overused and often the bar for thresholds can be adjusted to fit someones narrative. The good part are that they are objective and not subject to bias or human error. The problem I have with analytics, especially exclusively using analytics is that they are completely objective and don't take any context into account.

Hall should have a better statistical career profile vs Walker based on his situation. He came onto a team with no returning RB and no real competition for carries. ISU is a team that historically features and uses 1 RB and force feeds them throughout the game, even when the game is no longer close. They also benefit from playing in the Big 12 where they routinely face soft defenses. Hall typically struggled with the few good defenses he faced. ISU regularly uses their RBs in the passing game. If Hall is anywhere near a good RB he should be putting up good stats throughout his 3 yr career there. He was set up for success with his situation and put up numbers exhibiting that.

Walker at Wake Forest shared the backfield with another back before getting workhorse treatment at MSU his last year. ACC defenses are cewrtainly better than Big 12 and Big Ten much better. So Walker routinely faced better defenses throughout his career. Neither WF or MSU use their RBs in the passing game historically so Walker shouldn't have high catch numbers or shares. Walker had good results in his split time at WF and great results at MSU. Played against better defenses all 3 years and was elite his last year in a conference known for defense.

Subjectively, Walker looks like a much better back to me on film. More explosive and natural. Home run ability, great in open field and a good between the tackles runner that can slip thorugh small holes when needed. Hall looks clunky to me when having to make lateral moves or stopping and starting and gets tackled too easily against good teams. Both look solid enough catching the ball with limited route running. Hall is mediocre with pass blocking, Walker worse than that (likely the least important part of a RB prospect).

Either RB could flourish on the right team. I feel Walker will at minimum be a highly productive RB in a committee with the potential to be an elite back in the NFL. From what I see from Hall, he is much more dependent on a team that will feature him as the FT back and force him touches and could be forgetable in a commitee as he doesn't to anything elite in my opinion. I could easily be wrong, but his tape against good defenses is not great and shows what could be in the NFL.

Again, all my opinion.

I see and can respect your point. I agree with many of the arguments you've laid and have repeated much of the same information to people during conversation.

Analytics isn't a be all end all, there are certainly outliers and some things just cant be measured. If analytics were perfect there would be no need for a draft, top prospects would never bust, and you'd never have a late round guy like Brady, a brown, and many others shoot to stardom. That said, analytics does give a general predictable idea of where certain guys will end up for their careers. Its all about risk and gut, Hall should be and is the much safer bet based on everything we see on film and analyze. Walker is a damn good prospect in my eyes too just with more risk due to his profile and limited sample of only 1 year as a true starter. I think if he had a 2nd year starting we'd have a different conversation, or if he was in a different situation where he caught more balls.

This is a game at the end of the day, it's all about having fun and trusting your gut. If your gut says walker is gonna be a star and hall mediocre then draft walker and due your best to read your leaguemates to maximize your value. If you can drop to give them hall and take walker+ that's ideal obviously. Personally I see hall as the safer of the two but am lucky to hold the 1st and 3rd pick. Only question I have is do I want walker at 3 or do I value Wilson, burks, Williams, etc over him? I see this class being similar to last where we have najee/Williams vs hall/walker. Najee was the rb1 pretty easily but Williams was a fast riser with great film.

[mgscott]

This is a game at the end of the day, it's all about having fun and trusting your gut. If your gut says walker is gonna be a star and hall mediocre then draft walker and due your best to read your leaguemates to maximize your value. If you can drop to give them hall and take walker+ that's ideal obviously. Personally I see hall as the safer of the two but am lucky to hold the 1st and 3rd pick. Only question I have is do I want walker at 3 or do I value Wilson, burks, Williams, etc over him? I see this class being similar to last where we have najee/Williams vs hall/walker. Najee was the rb1 pretty easily but Williams was a fast riser with great film.
[/quote]

For most of this offseason I was comfortable not having an early 1st, but after studying Walker I am tempted to try to move up to 1.2 or 1.3 to get him. If I had 1.1 I would try to trade it if possible to move down a spot or 2.