Just Traded Josh Allen in SF

[MaddMadden]

Rebuild in a devy league. Just traded JA on a team that needs a lot of work.

7-for- deal with some prime assets. Boutte, JSN are top-5 devy assets. Williams is a top-10 asset. These add to Henderson and Stroud who are also top-5 assets.

Thoughts on the deal?

SEND: Josh Allen, Jarvis Landry
RECEIVE: Caleb Williams, Kayshon Boutte, devy 1.02 (JSN), rookie 1.2 (Kenneth Walker or Jameson Williams), 2023 devy 1st and 2nd, 2023 rookie 1st

QB, 2RB, 3WR, TE, Flex, SF

ROSTER:
QB: A. Dalton
RB: M. Gaskin, K. Herbert, P. Barber, W. Gallman, K. Herbert, J. Hill, R. Mostert, D. Williams, K. Williams
WR: CD Lamb, M. Pittman, T. Boyd, AJ Green, TY Hilton, D. Jackson, J. Ross
TE: A. Okwuegbunam, H. Hurst, B. Jarwin, J. Smith
DEVY: T. Hendreson (RB OSU 2024), C. Williams (QB USC 2024), Kayshon Boutte (WR LSU 2023), Z. Charbonnet (RB UCLA 2023), W. Shipley (RB Clemson 2024), . Emeka (WR OSI 2024)

2022 DEVY: 1.01 (CJ Stroud QB OSU 2023), 1.02 (J. Smith-Njigba WR OSU 2023), 1.08, 2.01, 2.08
2022 ROOKIE: 1.01 (Malik Willis), 1.02 (Kenneth Walker), 2.01, 3.01, 3.08, 4.01
2023 Devy: 2 1st, 2 2nd
2023 Rookie: 2 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th

[Gator Sens]

You brought in a lot of return and high end/valuable devy picks but there is no saying if these assets will hit or land in situations that allow them to succeed. When trading an asset like Allen in SF, I would have wanted at least one for sure known solid asset to be involved in the deal with devy/young assets on top. Again, I think the trade looks fun on paper based on rankings but I don't think this is a great deal with all the unknowns coming back your way. Hopefully more than a couple hit and this trade plays out well for you.

[oneson9192]

You're gonna be rolling all buckeyes by 2025! Love it.

Kind of impossible to tell if you got enough in return at this point, but it's a fun trade and an exciting roster, that's for sure. Hope they hit.

[FantasyFreak]

I want Allen here. I am not a huge fan of some of the players in the devy pool, and rookie picks are obviously depleted. I want the elite FF QB in this format, but it's definitely a nice return. If Williams turns into a good pro, then I think this deal works out for you. If not, it's sketchy how close it is. Certainly a "fun deal", as someone said though. It may end up working out in your favour, certainly possible.

[MaddMadden]

Yeah -- So you're point of a depleted rookie draft actually works in favor of this deal. The team is terrible and need many pieces to be a contender. The only real way to build in devy is, well, through devy picks.

Let's say that JA is worth 4-5 1sts in a standard SF league today. Add a 1st per year as holding value of these assets. So, by 2025 the return needs to be 7-8 1sts worth of value. There are four known values and three unknown in the deal:

1. Kenneth Walker, RB Mich 2022 -- RB2 in 2022, top 5 SF pick
2. Caleb Williams, QB USC 2024 -- Top10 devy pick, early QB1 in 2024, devy QB3-4
3. J. Smith-Njigba, WR OSU 2023 -- Top10 devy pick, devy WR1-2
4. Kayshon Boutte, WR LSU 2023 -- Top10 devy pick, devy WR1-2
5. 2023 devy 1st
6. 2023 devy 2nd
7. 2023 rookie 1st

What hit rate is needed on these assets to attain that 7-8 1sts worth of value by 2025? Well, simply put a 1st per player. Here are some broad brush stroke ranges of outcomes:
1. Walker is the most known value here. He's insulated at a 1-1st value for at least the next 18 months, assuming day 2 draft capital. If he performs, he could be worth 2-3 1sts as early as next offseason.

2. Williams has the potential of being 1.01 in the NFL draft in 2024 due to dual threat capabilities. He could also sputter out like any devy pick; always lots of tail risk. If Williams earns top-10 draft capital, he's worth 2 1sts off the bat with upside of 3-4 if he performs.

3 & 4. JSN & Boutte are 1A and 1B in the 2023 WR class as of now. Each is immensely talented and look like 1st round talents. Assuming that capital holds, they have a floor of a 1st with 2-3 1st upside. These guys come out sooner at a more predictable position, so the floor is more well defined.

5-7: Who knows! This is the biggest range of outcome. These picks could end up being worth anywhere between 1 and 6 1sts, ball park.

Combined, that's call it 5-12 1sts worth of potential value, with the required return firmly in the range of outcome.

I think what is being neglected is the increased certainty of hitting at the WR position: Breakout age, dominator rating, and quality of competition have a strong correlation to NFL success and can be known earlier in college careers. Of course a lot can happen, like injuries. JSN, Boutte, and Walker give this deal a floor of 3 1sts then there are 4 more assets in play, including an elite prospect and 3 picks.

Given roster construction, I think that you'd be hard pressed to find a way to field a competitive team to maximize JA's value.

Certainty is nice, but has no ROI. You NEED ROI in a rebuild. This is a 7-for-1 deal, so plenty of opportunity for appreciation.

I'll come back to this post after the draft to update the roster!

[abloom]

How many teams?

[MaddMadden]

12 team

[zaner75]

In a rebuild scenario like you have here, this is a trade that has to be done, imo. This team is no going anywhere with Allen. Hopefully there are multiple rookie and devy hits hits to get the rebuild on the right path.

[Mtt33]

Solid haul, if you’re fully rebuilding Allen (or any asset) isn’t doing you much good on your roster. I don’t love multi year rebuilding around a top 5 dynasty asset, their value can only go down or stay stagnant, so if you can get full value for them I’m pro-trading them and I think you did here. (If it’s a 1 year mini rebuild that’s different of course)

[murphysxm]

I have no Devy experience, so may not be the best resource. However, I don't see the QB upside in the next couple of years to recover from Andy Dalton being your lone QB. Both Stroud and Willis are question marks to me