QB value in 2022 rookie draft

[MacDaddy123]

In my 12 team PPR TEP SF IDP league, I picked up an orphan team that needs a lot of work, just about everywhere.
At QB, I have Aaron Rodgers, Jameis Winston, Taylor Heinicke, Andy Dalton, Mitch Trubisky, Trevor Siemian, and Jacoby Brissett.

It's not pretty, however, other positions, mainly WR, are just as bad, or worse.

The good news, I have 2022 picks 1.01, 1.04, 1nd 1.05, along with three mid to late 2nd round picks.
The bad news, I don't see any QB worth a top 5 pick in the 2022 draft.

Am I missing something? The 2022 QB class looks only slightly better than the 2013 QB draft class to me.
I am actually considering going after 3 WR's with my three top 5 picks, since this is a 3 WR and 3 Flex league, on top of the SF.
Currently I have WR's like Tyler Boyd, Christian Kirk, and Cole Beasley in my starting lineup.

My RB room is stronger than my WR/QB room, but lacks depth. I can't see spending a top 5 pick on a RB though with so many needs at WR and QB. TE's are good, but aging, and I am hoping to grab one with my three 2nd round picks.

Would it be a mistake to take Burks, Wilson, and London with those 3 top 5 picks in a SF draft?

[murphysxm]

There is a chance you don't have a starting NFL QB on your roster for 2022 in a SF. One of those picks has to adress that

[BabyChark23]

There is a chance you don't have a starting NFL QB on your roster for 2022 in a SF. One of those picks has to adress that

Agreed. Also, there are no elite QB prospects in this class, but there are several prospects that could easily turn into solid QB2 for years to come.

[oneson9192]

With those WRs and QBs, I don't see any way this team is contending in 2022. With that in mind, your top priority should be acquiring your own 2023 first if you don't already have it. After that, I would immediately trade Rodgers and any RBs over 24 yrs old for picks or young receivers. Likely Beasley/Boyd as well (even if just for third rounders or something). Now that you don't have to worry about fielding a contending lineup in 2022, you are free to take the BPA with all 2022 picks. I think going WR/WR/WR makes sense, or maybe WR/QB/WR if someone like Willis nails the combine and gets drafted early. You can afford to wait for raw talents to adjust to the NFL. Taking a TE in the second also makes sense, but only do it if it's the BPA; don't reach to "fill out a lineup" in a season where you won't compete anyway.

[MacDaddy123]

With those WRs and QBs, I don't see any way this team is contending in 2022. With that in mind, your top priority should be acquiring your own 2023 first if you don't already have it. After that, I would immediately trade Rodgers and any RBs over 24 yrs old for picks or young receivers. Likely Beasley/Boyd as well (even if just for third rounders or something). Now that you don't have to worry about fielding a contending lineup in 2022, you are free to take the BPA with all 2022 picks. I think going WR/WR/WR makes sense, or maybe WR/QB/WR if someone like Willis nails the combine and gets drafted early. You can afford to wait for raw talents to adjust to the NFL. Taking a TE in the second also makes sense, but only do it if it's the BPA; don't reach to "fill out a lineup" in a season where you won't compete anyway.

Thank you, this is the best advice that I have seen. I also do not see this team contending in 2022, or maybe even another year or two after 2022 either.

RB is my strength, with Saquon Barkley and Nick Chubb as my starting RB's with little depth behind them.
I have considered trying to move them, but I am not sure how, as this league is probably one of the most divided leagues I have been in.

Normally, I would expect the top teams to have interest in these RB's, but they have no top draft picks left in round 1 or 2, through 2024.
The teams that have all of the draft picks are rebuilding teams, who I doubt would have interest in older RB's like Barkley or Chubb.

So the teams that would have interest in Barkley and Chubb, can't afford to pay for them, and those that can afford them have no interest in them. Any ideas?

[Ruggenater]

Draft picks aren’t the only possible compensation in a trade. If contenders don’t have picks, try trading Saquon and Chubb for players.

[MacDaddy123]

Draft picks aren’t the only possible compensation in a trade. If contenders don’t have picks, try trading Saquon and Chubb for players.

Good point!
I have a couple of trade offers out now, just for younger players.

[Bay City Original]

I agree with Oneson and disagree with those saying you need to draft a QB. Like you said, your team is far from competing so I’d be trying to acquire 2023 picks and build around the WR position since they hold value and production longer. There’s still a lot to see with the draft so you might consider a QB who might have a chance in the upcoming years. As for your RBs, trade them and ARod.

[MacDaddy123]

I agree with Oneson and disagree with those saying you need to draft a QB. Like you said, your team is far from competing so I’d be trying to acquire 2023 picks and build around the WR position since they hold value and production longer. There’s still a lot to see with the draft so you might consider a QB who might have a chance in the upcoming years. As for your RBs, trade them and ARod.

Thanks, good advice.
I am finding Chubb, Hunt, ARod tougher to move than I thought. Maybe I am overvaluing them, but I tried asking for picks first, no dice.
Then I tried putting them in packages like Chubb, Hunt, Keenan Allen, Kellen Mond for CEH, ETN, Zach Wilson, rejected.
Chubb, Hunt, Keenan Allen, OJ Howard for Antonio Gibson, Jerry Jeudy, Noah Fant, Brevin Jordan (TEP), declined.

Do you think I am asking too much? I mean it's hardly worth selling Nick Chubb for Kenneth Gainwell.

[zaner75]

Based on your previous posts about the league dynamic, I assume you are targeting the win-now teams with the trade offers?
It is likely you are finding it hard to find a trade because the players you're looking to deal (Chubb, Hunt, Allen) don't offer upgrades to the other team's starting lineup or overall value. Not saying that you should be giving extreme discounts but your players will have more value once the season starts and people start thinking about/focusing on production.
I can understand why your offers are being rejected because all I see when looking at them is the age difference and value trajectories between what you're offering and asking for. Can't force trades and, if I were a contender, now is not the time to be trading for RBs or aged assets. Stay patient and hopefully you can make the types of deals you're seeking closer to the season.

[MacDaddy123]

Based on your previous posts about the league dynamic, I assume you are targeting the win-now teams with the trade offers?
It is likely you are finding it hard to find a trade because the players you're looking to deal (Chubb, Hunt, Allen) don't offer upgrades to the other team's starting lineup or overall value. Not saying that you should be giving extreme discounts but your players will have more value once the season starts and people start thinking about/focusing on production.
I can understand why your offers are being rejected because all I see when looking at them is the age difference and value trajectories between what you're offering and asking for. Can't force trades and, if I were a contender, now is not the time to be trading for RBs or aged assets. Stay patient and hopefully you can make the types of deals you're seeking closer to the season.

Thank you. Yes, I have been making offers to win now teams, as teams in rebuild have no interest in older players.

I have been looking for younger players, since all of the top teams, win now, have no draft picks to trade for.
Most top teams have ZERO 1st, 2nd, and 3rd round picks for the next 3 years.

I get your point though, in that February is not the time to sell top veterans. I'll have to wait until at least August.
Patience is required. Trades cannot be forced.

[Anteaters]

The good news, I have 2022 picks 1.01, 1.04, 1nd 1.05, along with three mid to late 2nd round picks.
The bad news, I don't see any QB worth a top 5 pick in the 2022 draft.

Am I missing something?
...
Would it be a mistake to take Burks, Wilson, and London with those 3 top 5 picks in a SF draft?

I came upon this article this morning: https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/2022 ... -10-years/
From Andrew Luck to Joe Burrow, reviewing every first-round QB drafted over the last 10 years

Kenny Pickett, Malik Willis, Matt Corral, Desmond Ridder and Sam Howell have all drawn interest from QB-needy teams with first-round picks, and several of them have been surefire Day One targets across the mock-verse. But what can history tell us about how many of the inevitable first-round QB investments will actually pan out? We're glad you asked.

We also hope you brought some Pepto Bismol, because the track record of first-round QB picks is not very pretty.
...
Over the last 10 years, there have been 33 QBs selected in the first round. Here's the final tally:

Home runs: 6 (18%)
Asterisks: 4 (12%)
Incompletes: 9 (27%)
Misses: 14 (42%)

If you combine home runs and asterisks, that's 10 of 33 QBs (30%) who at least left some noticeable level of positive impact. As you may have guessed, it's just a lot harder to hit on superstars under center, even in the first round:

Average home-run QB picks per year: 0.6
Average misses per year: 1.4

Tread carefully, no matter the year. Superflex makes us more desperate to get that QB. But it's worth it to take a moment and consider if a JT/Chase/Hall are worth choosing over a less than brilliant NFL QB prospect.

I don't have enough confidence to suggest which skill rookies in 2022 should be drafted ahead of which rookie QBs. I have ideas of who I might choose, but in every year there are so many moving pieces that would drive this decision for me personally that it's hard to give a concrete answer that fits all situations.

[zaner75]

Thanks for the article. I think draft position plays a large role. 2nd half QBs are notorious for not panning out (Lamar Jackson and Aaron Rodgers aside). Out of the other busts, almost all of the top 10 ones held value/starting jobs for multiple years (Josh Rosen being the exception). The value insulation of a top 10 drafted QB is the highest of any position. If any rookies get that draft capital, they need to be considered in the top half of 1st round rookie fantasy drafts. If a rookie WR doesn't hit in year one, his value plummets. Look at the 2021 rookies or Tua (as incompletes according to the article), you can trade any of them for a WR2/3. There's likely always a market for a starting QB. For my money, I'm leaning more towards QBs and RBs with my rookie picks as WR is so plentiful.

[midgets86]

I own #3, #4, #6, #11, #13 rookie picks. I need a couple qbs, hoping for grear landing spots. Willis may take 2 years, but willing to wait if there @ #3. I know Hall going #1 and #2 is contender, so thinking he won't take Willis. I'm intrigued by Ridder and Corral, not sold on Pickett.

[MacDaddy123]

Just to warp up this thread.

I wound up trading away 1.01 for Chase Claypool + 1.02.
3 WR and 3 Flex 12 team league, Claypool is a weekly Flex for my team.

Since this is such a long rebuild, I did not plan to take Hall at 1.01, so why keep it?
I was hoping to grab London, Burks, and Wilson, but someone snatched London from me at 1.03.
So I took Walker at 1.05, and also grabbed Wilson and Burks.

I then traded away Travis Kelce (2 TE league with 0.5 TEP) for Irv Smith, a 2023 1st round pick, and a 24 2nd round pick.

As of now, I have not been able to move either Chubb or Barkley.

I was also able to grab Matt Corral with pick 3.06.
The only QB I was able to get.