Dynasty League Football Forum

jordanzs wrote: ↑Sun Mar 28, 2021 7:16 pm Unless I'm drafting before the NFL rookie draft, I'm keeping an open mind on who I will draft where.

This!!

remedy29 wrote: ↑Tue Mar 30, 2021 5:33 pm

KingsKing wrote: ↑Tue Mar 30, 2021 1:26 pm

alewilliam789 wrote: ↑Tue Mar 30, 2021 10:06 am

No because Najee Harris is going to most likely weigh in between 220-230 pounds. Even a 4.6 won’t be a death sentence for him. On top of that in high school he tested with elite quickness and I expect that to continue to be the case

He decided not to run the 40 today, better take him off the board completely

He doesn't need to run or test any drills...he is from the all mighty Alabama program after all. None of those guys need to test or weigh themselves, their too scared to man up as it might hurt their draft stock.

In that regard, you have to respect Ronald Moore. He knew he was short, and that will hurt his draft stock as there are no comparable players to him. But he showed up and put on display his complete athletic profile and dodged nothing.

Scared? Or smart?

I am a pretty big believer in speed score, as far as using testing numbers for RBs, but I peg Najee for a high 4.5 to mid 4.6 kinda guy, but wouldn’t have been surprised by a high 4.6. With his weight this puts him at or around 100.

So, let’s say he was gonna run a 4.6 flat. We know, and I’d wager he and his trainer/agent/whatever knows, we add to it since it’s a pro day. So a 4.6+whatever. Does that help his stock? Nope. Does it hurt it? Maybe.

I think all we can assume here is, he wasn’t gonna run a 4.5 flat or better, or he’d have run. And I never expected him too, so net result here is nil, for me

KingsKing wrote: ↑Tue Mar 30, 2021 7:06 pm

Dynasty DeLorean wrote: ↑Tue Mar 30, 2021 6:18 pm Lumping Akers in with Jacob’s and CEH is an odd choice

Physically Ceh is the odd man out , but the other 3 are all with 1 inch and a few pounds of each other and had similar combine numbers. Ceh while shorter was going 1.1 in most drafts last year despite running a 4.6 , the year before Jacobs was the consensus 1.1 despite running a 4.6 . I’m not here to argue if Williams is a better prospect or not but i just find it funny Harris,Jacobs, Ceh can all run 4.6 plus and it’s fine , Williams runs a 4.55 and it’s a death sentence.

Ignore Akers who ran 4.47, but I was surprised to see Jacobs and CEH running 4.60 (+?)... Not sure if that changes my thoughts on them or Williams more. Williams' time for his size was definitely disappointing (a stone less than Jacobs), but given the context of those times certainly not a death knell. Basically nothings changed. Draft capital and landing spot will be massive

Lumps wrote: ↑Tue Mar 30, 2021 8:40 am

OhCruelestRanter wrote: ↑Tue Mar 30, 2021 7:55 am

Lumps wrote: ↑Tue Mar 30, 2021 7:29 am

What makes you say this?

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/276 ... l-position

There is absolutely no data in that link. Your source is just what some guy at Bleacher Report thinks is important. Try again.

Here’s the data. The three cone does not meaningfully correlate with NFL or fantasy success. https://www.nbcsports.com/edge/article ... alytics-rb

On the other hand, Williams’ speed score is dangerously close to the threshold where the precedent for success is really limited.

The data is that the best RB in the game runs an absurd 3 cone. Other notables also have some solid scores.

The link you provided basically says speed score matters and nothing else. 3 cone would actually be what #4-3 of the tests. The data also basically says nothing is good at predicting if a RB is good at receiving. Which makes sense.

Statistics that have historically NOT been correlated to early NFL success (AV/G) for RBs:

1. NFL Combine Weight (R-squared = 0.00)
2. NFL Combine Vertical Jump (0.00)
3. College YPR (0.00)
4. NFL Combine Agility Score (0.00)
5. College Market Share of Carries (0.00)
6. NFL Combine Broad Jump (0.01)
7. NFL Combine Height (0.01)
8. NFL Combine Bench Press (0.01)
9. NFL Combine Shuttle (0.01)
10. College Market Share of Rushing Yards (0.01)

From your link, note that 3 cone isn't on the NOT list.

I had a suspicion that the 3 cone wasn't ran very much, so since you like data here is a 2000-2019 spreadsheet:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... 1418500202


And guess what?

Total participants: 530

40: 517 (97.55%)
Vert: 432 (81.51%)
Broad: 424 (80.00%)
Bench: 404 (76.23%)
Shuttle: 306 (57.74%)
3 Cone: 303 (57.17%)

So if you want to throw your hands up and look at speed score and nothing else, sure. I think we can all agree that a small slow RB isn't as likely to have as much success as a giant extremely fast RB. Physics and all.

But I would argue that there are a MYRIAD of reasons why RBs we like fail - athleticism in college vs. being able to read blocks. Poor scheme fit. Adam Gase.

1. If you read the article, you’ll see that the correlation between 3 cone and per game fantasy value is weaker than Speed Score’s correlation, and the author draws the conclusion that speed score is only useful as a threshold test.

2. If you’re going to cite the 3 cone, you should be able to prove that it correlates with success. If you can’t, you should stop using it to make your point. The onus is really on you to support your claims, rather than us to try to prove a negative.

3. At no point did I suggest that we should “throw our hands up and look at speed score and nothing else.” All I suggested is that we should stop citing a metric that has not been demonstrated to actually matter. There are plenty of things that matter for RBs, and speed score is not the most important value. The 3-cone drill (for RBs) just isn’t one of those things.

There may have been another thread on this guy and my apologies if there was but how does this community feel about Williams?

What’s the best case scenario for him and is he going to be a top 12 back as soon as next year?

I liked him a lot, i drafted him but then almost immediately traded him for Josh Jacobs and a 2nd. I think Jacobs and Williams are similar and both would have had the same role on my team, so i took the proven player in Jacobs. They are both more power backs that wont catch as much, serviceable low end RB1s or high RB2s. I dont ever see Javonte cracking top 6 but he can certainly finish as a RB1, probably not this year though. I also dont think he is gonna have as many of the "WOW THAT WAS RIDICULOUS" highlight plays that boost players value. But he is definitely someone who can be very valuable at the goal line.

Smart trade getting the pick too. That said I think Williams will have a weekly floor in the reception department where Jacobs might have weeks with no receptions.

Maglio74 wrote: ↑Wed Jun 23, 2021 7:04 am Smart trade getting the pick too. That said I think Williams will have a weekly floor in the reception department where Jacobs might have weeks with no receptions.

Definitely true but i dont think anyone is drafting either of these guys and expecting much in the catches department. Both of them are simply just not that. They arent ceiling picks, they are floor picks. Really Good guys to have as your RB2 or RB3 but dont expect RB1 games consistently and if you get RB1 games itll be because they have at least 2 Tds or 100 yards and 1 Td. Absolute best case scenario for Javonte is he is a Nick Chubb type of player, but i dont see that happening.

All hail Javonte. In his first game as starter and primary RB, he rushed for 102 yards and caught 6 of 9 targets for 76 yards and a TD.

Javonte was targeted more than any other player, including Jeudy. Javonte had more receptions than any other player. Javonte was one yard shy of leading the team in receiving yards.

In short, Javonte was the player we all thought the guy on the other side of the field (CEH) was going to become when he was drafted last year.

JT is dynasty RB1. All day every day. But after this performance by Javonte coming after half a season of looking great in a RBBC, I dare anyone to provide a convincing argument for any other RB to be Dynasty RB2. And don't forget the young man is only 21 years old.

I think most agree it's time to move on from the group of CMC, Barkley, Kamara, Cook, Henry, Zeke as being viable for 2-5 year prime usefulness. And for my money there are reasons to be wary of Mixon and AJones. Are we still holding out hope that any other 2019-2020 draftees will climb up to T3 status? Maybe Swift, maybe Gibson, maybe Dobbins. Those guys look promising, but there's a reason to doubt each will ever be a top 3 Dynasty RB.

That leaves Chubb, Ekeler, Najee, and ??? in the conversation. Anyone I'm leaving out that could challenge Javonte for RB2?

I am patting myself on the back that I didn't get swept up in the Pittsmania and bypass Javonte for a TE. That would have left me and for the next few years.

Get on the Javonte bandwagon now, while there's still a little room.

I wanted him so bad but with the 10th pick in the draft there was no chance. So I'm unbelievably glad, that I traded for him during the season! He looked good in a timeshare and all the time I hoped he will get a start alone and boy he didn't disappoint.
He is young and talented and can be a great asset in the next years. I'm full on the hype train!

He had a great game as the bellcow, and I have him in a few leagues so this isn’t a “sour grapes” type take, but RB2 overall is too high for Williams. He’s still expected to share the backfield with Melvin Gordon the rest of the year, and we don’t yet know whether Denver will bring in someone similar to Gordon with the goal of a similar split next year.

Najee is the unquestioned bellcow in Pittsburgh, and Tomlin’s history says that’s not changing. Najee easily > Javonte, and there are probably a few others in between as well.

I think the onus is on you to provide the convincing argument for him as RB2, not the other way around. If he finishes the season scoring 20 ppg, maybe he'll have an argument, but for now he's RB24 on the year on a per-game basis.

Najee and Swift round out my top 3 right now, but it's a very uninspired top 3. Javonte could absolutely make his case as we finish the year, but we're like 4ish games away from that case really holding any weight.

He had the most targets on the team because Teddy can't throw more than 5 yards accurately. Put a competent QB behind center with Denver's WR and you'll have less focus on Javonte in terms of scheme. He's turning into a special player with incredible balance, but not crowning him yet. This offense could look incredibly different in a few months.

I'm upset I had to hit other for my dynasty RB 2 instead of clicking Swift in the poll. Meanwhile Ekeler and Mixon are here

He was solid but a little patience is probably needed given he is in a time share playing on a team where defenses dare them to throw the ball.

Pretty bad QB play from both teams last night.