Saquon Barkley - Dynasty Discussion Thread

[Ice]

It is pure fantasy thinking Uber studs can be a buy low player with no age or off field issues.

Barkley is a stud.
Zeke is a stud
Kamara is a stud
CMC is a stud.

These players sell at high market period. No owner in their right mind would accept anything under premium value.

Every player in dynasty eventually has a buy low window. Nobody is immune. It's a pretty safe bet that sometime in the near future, Barkley will cost significantly less. See Todd Gurley, Leonard Fournette, David Johnson, & Le'Veon Bell.

Your comment is obvious. However this thread is about Barkley entering a buy low period now.

Maybe you agree, but at this point that is pure fantasy IMO. He is an Uber Stud and seen as such by virtually everyone.

[Cult of Dionysus]

Definitely could see a dip in SBs value in 2019. Instead of having to pay 7 1sts, you might only need to pay 6 1sts and 2 2nds.

[remedy29]

There will be no "buy low period" on Saquon, he is absolutely special and in a class by himself.

I guess refer to my previous post about David Johnson . Situations change

I never thought DJ had staying power to begin with, easily would have traded him away for 1.01 (Barkley) last year straight up even though everyone else around here was saying that would be mad.

DJ isn't on Saquons level.

100% agree. It's laughable to put DJ on Saquan's level.

Im a Jets fan, but watch every Giants game too. I've seen every play of his. It's funny watching defenses play against him, DBs and LBs celebrate like crazy IF they happen to tackle him. Tackling Saquan in the open field is the biggest accomplishment any defense player can have, and they all know it.

Someone mentioned that 10 men may be in the box against the Giants. Can 10 men contain him? I doubt it, against stack boxes, it's only a matter of time before he breaks a 70 yard TD run.

I don't understand how anyone can think Saquan situation is bad in 2019. The offense will run through him. Both running and passing game. I think the Giants have decent enough offensive talent around Saquan to do well. The Giants o-line will be drastically improved from the start of last year. The only thing that can potentially derail Saquan is abysmal QB play, which I admit is possible, but not likely.

[FantasyFreak]

I guess refer to my previous post about David Johnson . Situations change

I never thought DJ had staying power to begin with, easily would have traded him away for 1.01 (Barkley) last year straight up even though everyone else around here was saying that would be mad.

DJ isn't on Saquons level.

100% agree. It's laughable to put DJ on Saquan's level.

Im a Jets fan, but watch every Giants game too. I've seen every play of his. It's funny watching defenses play against him, DBs and LBs celebrate like crazy IF they happen to tackle him. Tackling Saquan in the open field is the biggest accomplishment any defense player can have, and they all know it.

Someone mentioned that 10 men may be in the box against the Giants. Can 10 men contain him? I doubt it, against stack boxes, it's only a matter of time before he breaks a 70 yard TD run.

I don't understand how anyone can think Saquan situation is bad in 2019. The offense will run through him. Both running and passing game. I think the Giants have decent enough offensive talent around Saquan to do well. The Giants o-line will be drastically improved from the start of last year. The only thing that can potentially derail Saquan is abysmal QB play, which I admit is possible, but not likely.

The reference was about DJ in 2016, don't remove the context. DJ's season that year was monstrous, and he was still young. He broke into the league the 2nd half of his rookie year and put up big numbers when he got the starting role, and followed it up with a monster sophomore year. At that point DJ, was a young, Elite RB who had just decimated the NFL on the ground and as a receiver.

Saquon's situation is bad. I don't see how you can see it otherwise. Sure, he'll get volume, but he would get that anywhere. It's not like if Barkley were on the Rams he'd get 12 touches a game. Barkley is going to have to earn every yard. The loss of OBJ is a massive loss to him. QB's situation is arguably worse than last year, it's just a bad situation. He'll still do well, but if he was on a better team, he would put up even better numbers. The Giants project to be a bottom 10 offense, so the likelihood he can be RB1 is pretty low.

[ArrylT]

There could be a buy low just because someone is bound to feel the need to sell Saquon and most owners prefer to buy low than buy high.

For example here is a trade from late June:

Trade date: 2019-06-26

Colorado Springs
RB Saquon Barkley, NYG
Year 2021 round 2 draft pick from Colorado Springs
Year 2021 round 4 draft pick from Colorado Springs

Virginia Beach [ roster · trades ]
QB Derek Carr, OAK
RB Phillip Lindsay, DEN
RB Latavius Murray, NOS
WR DJ Moore, CAR
WR Courtland Sutton, DEN
4.08 draft pick
5.08 draft pick
6.08 draft pick

Its SF league so QBs have more value, but the Trade Analyzer tool likes the Barkley side by a fair margin (1090 to 920).

Basically if you're able to buy Barkley for a package like this, with lots of 'dimes' and 'quarters', then it should be considered a buy low?

[remedy29]

The Giants project to be a bottom 10 offense, so the likelihood he can be RB1 is pretty low.

Wait, are you saying the likelihood that Saquan can ba a top 12 RB ..or RB1? OR are you saying Barkley being the the top RB in the league?

Barkley is the best talent at RB since Ladanian Tomlinson, hands down. DJ never touched Saquan's ability, I'm sorry, not even close.

[FantasyFreak]

The Giants project to be a bottom 10 offense, so the likelihood he can be RB1 is pretty low.

Wait, are you saying the likelihood that Saquan can ba a top 12 RB ..or RB1? OR are you saying Barkley being the the top RB in the league?

Barkley is the best talent at RB since Ladanian Tomlinson, hands down. DJ never touched Saquan's ability, I'm sorry, not even close.

The RB1. Barkley is a lock for a top 12 finish. Nobody is saying DJ's talent is that of Saquon's. Your changing the original intention of DJ's mention.

"The same was said about David Johnson a few years ago. Situations and thus value of fantasy players do change"- That was what it was based off.

Barkley is a special player, but to think that his value can't dip at some point, is a bit much. He should always be a top end startup pick for years, barring injury, but Barkley's situation can certainly change due to team situations, injuries, contract (in a few years) etc. That's all, nobody is comparing the talents.

[Sriracha]

The Giants project to be a bottom 10 offense, so the likelihood he can be RB1 is pretty low.

Wait, are you saying the likelihood that Saquan can ba a top 12 RB ..or RB1? OR are you saying Barkley being the the top RB in the league?

Barkley is the best talent at RB since Ladanian Tomlinson, hands down. DJ never touched Saquan's ability, I'm sorry, not even close.

You must be new to fantasy.

I'd probably give the edge to Saquon, but it's damn close between him and 2016 DJ.

No RB is immune to situation

[DJB]

I never thought DJ had staying power to begin with, easily would have traded him away for 1.01 (Barkley) last year straight up even though everyone else around here was saying that would be mad.

DJ isn't on Saquons level.

100% agree. It's laughable to put DJ on Saquan's level.

Im a Jets fan, but watch every Giants game too. I've seen every play of his. It's funny watching defenses play against him, DBs and LBs celebrate like crazy IF they happen to tackle him. Tackling Saquan in the open field is the biggest accomplishment any defense player can have, and they all know it.

Someone mentioned that 10 men may be in the box against the Giants. Can 10 men contain him? I doubt it, against stack boxes, it's only a matter of time before he breaks a 70 yard TD run.

I don't understand how anyone can think Saquan situation is bad in 2019. The offense will run through him. Both running and passing game. I think the Giants have decent enough offensive talent around Saquan to do well. The Giants o-line will be drastically improved from the start of last year. The only thing that can potentially derail Saquan is abysmal QB play, which I admit is possible, but not likely.

The reference was about DJ in 2016, don't remove the context. DJ's season that year was monstrous, and he was still young. He broke into the league the 2nd half of his rookie year and put up big numbers when he got the starting role, and followed it up with a monster sophomore year. At that point DJ, was a young, Elite RB who had just decimated the NFL on the ground and as a receiver.

Saquon's situation is bad. I don't see how you can see it otherwise. Sure, he'll get volume, but he would get that anywhere. It's not like if Barkley were on the Rams he'd get 12 touches a game. Barkley is going to have to earn every yard. The loss of OBJ is a massive loss to him. QB's situation is arguably worse than last year, it's just a bad situation. He'll still do well, but if he was on a better team, he would put up even better numbers. The Giants project to be a bottom 10 offense, so the likelihood he can be RB1 is pretty low.

FF you nailed it right here!

[remedy29]

The Giants project to be a bottom 10 offense, so the likelihood he can be RB1 is pretty low.

Wait, are you saying the likelihood that Saquan can ba a top 12 RB ..or RB1? OR are you saying Barkley being the the top RB in the league?

Barkley is the best talent at RB since Ladanian Tomlinson, hands down. DJ never touched Saquan's ability, I'm sorry, not even close.

You must be new to fantasy.

I'd probably give the edge to Saquon, but it's damn close between him and 2016 DJ.

No RB is immune to situation

Yes, relatively new. I made my first fantasy football mistake by drafting Mark Rypien in 1992, after his fantastic 1991 season, you know the era where real men played real football...his gaudy 1991 stats were 3,564 passing yards and 28 TDs. So I get player values can change...

Saquan Barkley was drafted as a special player, All-Pro expectations. Nothing less than greatness is expected.

DJ Johnson had a nice pretty little fantasy season, one year, by catching 80 of 120 targets. His value spiked because of the great year (great fantasy year), and high catch volume, and dropped because he is not a special player. He is not comparable to Barkley.

My overall point is Barkley's 2019 situation is not bad. The Giants will be an average offense. Barkley will put up top stats and retain his high fantasy value. Don't hold your breath for a buy low window this year or next.

[bjd5211]

The Giants offense was terrible last year and he still put up 2,000 total yards and 15 TDs, and yes losing OBJ will hurt a little but their significantly improved OL will help more. Now I'm not saying he's a lock to finish as the RB1 overall in scoring every single year, but like LT back in the day he's the best bet to do so hence why he was always the #1 pick, and he's going to be top 5 every year he plays 15-16 games. Plus situations can change pretty fast in the NFL, there's no way of knowing that the Giants won't turn it around in a few years. The Giants have historically been a very well run franchise but I think the Mara's love of Eli is clouding their judgment currently which is what has led to a lot of their recent issues because they bring on coaches and execs who continue to try to build around him.

[Dynasty_Analyst]

Saquon doesn't fit the mold of any traditional back when your talking about he can't be an RB1 in a low scoring offence (yes I read the recent fantasy pros article to haha). But Barkley is so talented coming out to catch passes they could litteraly play him at WR if they had to. He could catch 120-130 passes next year and it won't matter if he's getting hammered in the box.

[ArrylT]

Guys like Saquon, Kamara and CMC may be revolutionizing fantasy football yet again.

In Fantasy Hockey a guy named Wayne Gretzky did so well for a period of time that in many hockey pools you could only draft Gretzky for his assists OR his goals - but not both together.

What these guys may do is, like we have seen from the switch from Std to PPR, and then the introduction of SF/2 QB and other premium scoring is help normalize one of the following:

(a) increase the prevalence of tiered ppr - where RBs might only get .5 points for receptions, WRs get 1.0 and TEs get 1.5

or

(b) start a trend where you can only draft RBs for their rushing yardage, or their receiving yardage but not both ...

I think (B) might seem a little far fetched - but think about it for a moment - if you have 3-4 guys for a period of 4-5 years putting up Marshall Faulk in his prime production the value at these positions could skyrocket, similar to that period where Brees/Rodgers/Peyton were routinely drafted high in startups & redrafts.

I know this is a tangent from the thread - but I hope it helps underscore that if you can buy low on Saquon or Kamara or CMC, it could very well be in your best interests to see if it is feasible.

[honcho55]

There could be a buy low just because someone is bound to feel the need to sell Saquon and most owners prefer to buy low than buy high.

For example here is a trade from late June:

Trade date: 2019-06-26

Colorado Springs
RB Saquon Barkley, NYG
Year 2021 round 2 draft pick from Colorado Springs
Year 2021 round 4 draft pick from Colorado Springs

Virginia Beach [ roster · trades ]
QB Derek Carr, OAK
RB Phillip Lindsay, DEN
RB Latavius Murray, NOS
WR DJ Moore, CAR
WR Courtland Sutton, DEN
4.08 draft pick
5.08 draft pick
6.08 draft pick

Its SF league so QBs have more value, but the Trade Analyzer tool likes the Barkley side by a fair margin (1090 to 920).

Basically if you're able to buy Barkley for a package like this, with lots of 'dimes' and 'quarters', then it should be considered a buy low?

Man, I can’t imagine that’s reflective of Barkley’s real value. Just a bad trade imo.

Anyways I wanted to comment about the Barkley vs D.J debate, I’m on the D.J. side there. I think it’s dangerous to assume Barkley is *vastly* better than D.J. (talking relative here: Barkley now vs D.J. after year 1-2).

I would rate Barkley tops in recent memory, but there’s a whole list of guys that are in the same tier imo. AP, LT, Gurley, zeke for sure. D.J., Cmac, Kamara, etc, maybe.

I 100% agree that the landscape can change quickly and there’s a million things that can happen. Barkley is of course as safe a bet as you can get, for short term and long term, but that’s rolled in to his very high value.

To add a little context also, last year this time in a Redraft league, I traded D.J.+ for Barkley+. So again, I’m not saying D.J. is on Barkley’s level for value right now, just saying it’s dangerous to say he’s THE super freak show and no one is remotely close. In fact I thought Peterson was the best pure runner I ever saw (one pinch better than Barry, not old enough to have seen some of the other greats) but fact is, his career arc in fantasy isn’t some massive outlier. I’d expect Barkley’s isn’t either, while still saying I’d take him 1.01 in a startup easy. There’s plenty of room.

As far as a “buy low” window, nah I don’t see it, in general. Maybe in a particular league you might snag him low-ish, but really: this guy was ALWAYS crazy high price, and the guy that has him in your league paid that price (theoretically). I don’t see it being common that someone will jump ship, after A: spending what it took to buy 1.01 last year (or earning 1.01 and turning down insane offers at the time), and B: seeing the value validated. Again, there will always be exceptions.

[ArrylT]

As far as a “buy low” window, nah I don’t see it, in general. Maybe in a particular league you might snag him low-ish, but really: this guy was ALWAYS crazy high price, and the guy that has him in your league paid that price (theoretically). I don’t see it being common that someone will jump ship, after A: spending what it took to buy 1.01 last year (or earning 1.01 and turning down insane offers at the time), and B: seeing the value validated. Again, there will always be exceptions.

Yes you are correct - I should have been more specific. I agree that I do not yet see a trend (although Barkley did go 2nd overall in 2 July mocks) that suggests there will be a buy low period in general - rather like you said, it will likely be league specific. However the more owners explore the possibility of a buy low, and the more leagues where a buy low is achieved, the closer we get to that state. At the moment though, maybe 1-3% of leagues will have buy lows ...