Jalen Hurts: What's the verdict?

[mild]

You really missed your calling as a politician.

Thankyou, that's very kind and definitely means a lot.

It's the fans that really keep me coming back around here.

[FantasyFreak]

You really missed your calling as a politician.

Thankyou, that's very kind and definitely means a lot.

It's the fans that really keep me coming back around here.

I mean, the way you were able to from his comment that Hurts wasn't as good as last year, and making more mistakes, to bumping the Mahomes thread, so seamlessly, was quite a feat.

You'd be able to answer reporters questions, and by the time you were finished, people would be thinking about a different topic, and have forgotten the original question.

[mild]

I mean, the way you were able to from his comment that Hurts wasn't as good as last year, and making more mistakes, to bumping the Mahomes thread, so seamlessly, was quite a feat.

And yet, the part that is interesting here is that I'm not hearing you disagreeing?

Hurts owners aren't any more worried than Mahomes, Burrow, Herbert, or T-Law owners. There are far more troubling situations in the league, fantasy wise, than the situation of the current QB2 in fantasy. I just think it's kinda funny, taking him (of all players) to task.

Man, imagine if he cut down on these mistakes! He could even be the QB1!?

[FantasyFreak]

I mean, the way you were able to from his comment that Hurts wasn't as good as last year, and making more mistakes, to bumping the Mahomes thread, so seamlessly, was quite a feat.

And yet, the part that is interesting here is that I'm not hearing you disagreeing?

Hurts owners aren't any more worried than Mahomes, Burrow, Herbert, or T-Law owners. There are far more troubling situations in the league, fantasy wise, than the situation of the current QB2 in fantasy. I just think it's kinda funny, taking him (of all players) to task.

Man, imagine if he cut down on these mistakes! He could even be the QB1!?

He wasn't really taking him to task, IMO. He was just pointing out, he wasn't as good as last year. It's true. No chance I'd take him at QB1. I think he's got a few top end years left, but I don't see his style lasting into his 30's at a high level. I'd rather take Mahomes, no doubt, long term. This season seems like his floor. Depends on the league, too, 6pts pass TD or 4, or my league where rushing is really minimized. If it were 4 pts per Passing TD, and normal rushing, yeah, I could see QB1, or Lamar, if you're looking at a 3 year window. I only play SF, so I prefer a QB like Mahomes to Hurts/Lamar at my QB1 spot, in that format, though, as I'm looking for longevity.

I think the Eagles need to win the SB this year, or they will miss their window. Next year, they will likely still be good, but Kelce another year older, and some other vets. Their secondary is their achilles heel, I am not sure they can get all the way home with it, as it stands.

[mild]

Jalen's 2023 season:

QB2 overall in fantasy scoring
QB2 in FPTS/G
11-6 record
3858 yards passing, 605 yards rushing, 38 total TD's, played all 17 games.

The mighty minds of the DLF brain trust remain unimpressed:

... Hurts wasn't anything close to an elite QB this year. Personally, I think he's a massive sell at top 3-5 QB prices in Dynasty (in Superflex, your ride the ceiling in the 1 QB leagues). Hurts has never been an elite passer, in any regard, whether it be arm talent or reading the field. His mobility helps him, but his injuries are piling up, and I think his career trajectory could be a poor man's Cam.

...

I think Hurts has peaked. I'd be shocked if he hasn't, TBH.

He's done more than most, including myself, ever expected, out of college. He is still, however, hampered by a lot of the things that made him a 2nd round pick, and he's now in the top tier of cap hits for QB's.

Are those last 2 posts spot on. Johnson got everything he could out of Hurts’ limitations. The league just caught up to them and after that it was a free fall.

Sounds like you're saying Hurts talent and ability isn't enough to be great in an ordinary system. But in a perfectly designed and well-run scheme, he can do a lot better. That sounds a lot like a QB who should be described as a game manager. No shame in that, but I want to make sure we're all on the same page.

"I think Hurts has peaked. Wasn't anything close to an elite QB this year. A poor man's Cam."

"Johnson got everything he could out of his limitations. The league caught up to him and then it was a freefall."

"A QB who should be described as a game manager."

Personally?

I'm thrilled that we get to do this all again for 2024.

[CGW]

Can we at least agree he was measurably worse from a football standpoint in 23? His compiling stats were on par, but the turnovers and efficiency were worse.

But he's not going anywhere, so as you say, enjoy another season of high end fantasy production.

[mild]

Can we at least agree he was measurably worse from a football standpoint in 23? His compiling stats were on par, but the turnovers and efficiency were worse.

But he's not going anywhere, so as you say, enjoy another season of high end fantasy production.

We can definitely agree there. I'm excited to see what Kellen Moore will be able to do for this offense, I think there were clear issues with the design this year and they sorely missed Steichan. Clearly Howie and Lurie agreed; they cleaned house pretty promptly.

Laying it all on Hurts definitely isn't fair imo.

Where I'm struggling here is with labelling him a "game manager" and "not an elite QB" when he literally gave you another top 2 finish in fantasy. That seems like over-reactionairy nonsense by the DLF big brains - but what do I know, I just work here...

[murphysxm]

Can we at least agree he was measurably worse from a football standpoint in 23? His compiling stats were on par, but the turnovers and efficiency were worse.

But he's not going anywhere, so as you say, enjoy another season of high end fantasy production.

We can definitely agree there. I'm excited to see what Kellen Moore will be able to do for this offense, I think there were clear issues with the design this year and they sorely missed Steichan. Clearly Howie and Lurie agreed; they cleaned house pretty promptly.

Laying it all on Hurts definitely isn't fair imo.

Where I'm struggling here is with labelling him a "game manager" and "not an elite QB" when he literally gave you another top 2 finish in fantasy. That seems like over-reactionairy nonsense by the DLF big brains - but what do I know, I just work here...

I see where you are coming from. I also see him losing 10 rushing TD's when the tush push gets banned and I think he disenchanted himself with his teammates this year. I have some concerns about his future.

[frerichs5]

I see where you are coming from. I also see him losing 10 rushing TD's when the tush push gets banned and I think he disenchanted himself with his teammates this year. I have some concerns about his future.

The most recent reports I’ve read are that they aren’t considering banning it for now anyway.

Also, he did run for 10 TDs in 15 games in 2021 before they started doing it. I think he’s shown the rushing upside still that I wouldn’t be overly concerned about it even if it does get banned at some point.

[Jigga94]

Even if they ban the push, they are still going to have Hurts QB sneak from the 1. I wouldn't factor any of that into a decision anyways

[Bronco Billy]

Even if they ban the push, they are still going to have Hurts QB sneak from the 1. I wouldn't factor any of that into a decision anyways

They just need to go back to enforcing the assisting the runner rule. QB sneaks are fine. Putting hands on the QB and pushing or grabbing/holding and pulling is illegal.

Simple.

[Ice]

Can we at least agree he was measurably worse from a football standpoint in 23? His compiling stats were on par, but the turnovers and efficiency were worse.

But he's not going anywhere, so as you say, enjoy another season of high end fantasy production.

We can definitely agree there. I'm excited to see what Kellen Moore will be able to do for this offense, I think there were clear issues with the design this year and they sorely missed Steichan. Clearly Howie and Lurie agreed; they cleaned house pretty promptly.

Laying it all on Hurts definitely isn't fair imo.

Where I'm struggling here is with labelling him a "game manager" and "not an elite QB" when he literally gave you another top 2 finish in fantasy. That seems like over-reactionairy nonsense by the DLF big brains - but what do I know, I just work here...

NFL wise:
I wouldn't get too excited with Moore as the OC. He is a pretty good coordinator but he runs a timing based offense which may stifle Hurts creativity. The system fit seems a bit strange to me. 3rd OC in three years. Has an early career Baker Mayfield vibe going on a bit.

Dak improved post Moore
Herbert stepped back a bit with Moore
Hurts time will tell.

[mild]

NFL wise:
I wouldn't get too excited with Moore as the OC. He is a pretty good coordinator but he runs a timing based offense which may stifle Hurts creativity. The system fit seems a bit strange to me. 3rd OC in three years. Has an early career Baker Mayfield vibe going on a bit.

Dak improved post Moore
Herbert stepped back a bit with Moore
Hurts time will tell.

Can we agree that:

- Dak with Kellen Moore was still pretty damn good (17.8 ppg vs. 20.8 ppg this year)
- The Hurts / Brian Johnson combo was decidedly "not good" and resulted in a firing
- ... but Hurts was still the #2 fantasy QB overall / ppg (21.9)
- Herbert / Moore was looking like an OK pairing before injuries piled up (especially Ekeler's multi-week hammy wk1, and Mike Williams ACL in wk3)
- Big Herb averaged a very respectable 21.5 PPG over his first 10 games before it all went in the tank with injuries everywhere (including himself - great bounceback 2024 candidate imo)

I don't really get the Baker Mayfield comp from any angle outside "they both changed OC's a lot" tbh. And that happens to plenty of QB's.

Can't recall Baker making a Superbowl ever. Can't recall him being a top 3 fantasy QB for consecutive years.

Can't recall Hurts disappointing a lot of fantasy drafters with high expectations of him either. Weird "early career" comp to land on, but hey.

[Menace2010]

NFL wise:
I wouldn't get too excited with Moore as the OC. He is a pretty good coordinator but he runs a timing based offense which may stifle Hurts creativity. The system fit seems a bit strange to me. 3rd OC in three years. Has an early career Baker Mayfield vibe going on a bit.

Dak improved post Moore
Herbert stepped back a bit with Moore
Hurts time will tell.

Can we agree that:

- Dak with Kellen Moore was still pretty damn good (17.8 ppg vs. 20.8 ppg this year)
- The Hurts / Brian Johnson combo was decidedly "not good" and resulted in a firing
- ... but Hurts was still the #2 fantasy QB overall / ppg (21.9)
- Herbert / Moore was looking like an OK pairing before injuries piled up (especially Ekeler's multi-week hammy wk1, and Mike Williams ACL in wk3)
- Big Herb averaged a very respectable 21.5 PPG over his first 10 games before it all went in the tank with injuries everywhere (including himself - great bounceback 2024 candidate imo)

I don't really get the Baker Mayfield comp from any angle outside "they both changed OC's a lot" tbh. And that happens to plenty of QB's.

Can't recall Baker making a Superbowl ever. Can't recall him being a top 3 fantasy QB for consecutive years.

Can't recall Hurts disappointing a lot of fantasy drafters with high expectations of him either. Weird "early career" comp to land on, but hey.

Ummmm it's pretty easy, both of these guys most assuredly play QB...

[Ice]

NFL wise:
I wouldn't get too excited with Moore as the OC. He is a pretty good coordinator but he runs a timing based offense which may stifle Hurts creativity. The system fit seems a bit strange to me. 3rd OC in three years. Has an early career Baker Mayfield vibe going on a bit.

Dak improved post Moore
Herbert stepped back a bit with Moore
Hurts time will tell.

Can we agree that:

- Dak with Kellen Moore was still pretty damn good (17.8 ppg vs. 20.8 ppg this year)
- The Hurts / Brian Johnson combo was decidedly "not good" and resulted in a firing
- ... but Hurts was still the #2 fantasy QB overall / ppg (21.9)
- Herbert / Moore was looking like an OK pairing before injuries piled up (especially Ekeler's multi-week hammy wk1, and Mike Williams ACL in wk3)
- Big Herb averaged a very respectable 21.5 PPG over his first 10 games before it all went in the tank with injuries everywhere (including himself - great bounceback 2024 candidate imo)

I don't really get the Baker Mayfield comp from any angle outside "they both changed OC's a lot" tbh. And that happens to plenty of QB's.

Can't recall Baker making a Superbowl ever. Can't recall him being a top 3 fantasy QB for consecutive years.

Can't recall Hurts disappointing a lot of fantasy drafters with high expectations of him either. Weird "early career" comp to land on, but hey.

It is amazing how you see things or even think I was comping his QB play to Baker.

1) I said Moore was a good Coordinator
2) Dak did improve last year without him
3) Herbert did take a slight step back.
4) Moore does run a timing based offense.

The Baker Vibe wasn't a player comparison at all but a situation comparison. Hurts is going on his 3rd OC in 3 years.

Now you can think this instability is a good thing and in this case Hurts may bounce back but just know as he ages his rushing ability will diminish and his ability to read defenses and throw on time and accurately will become much more important.

My post was a NFL driven post regarding the OC Change (Yet again) which is what Baker went through but he did bounce back in Tampa. Maybe Hurts will to but his passer rating was his 2nd best as a pro and not great.

Now if we want to compare Baker and Hurts QB passing in 23 you might find it surprising that:

Baker threw for 4044 yards Hurts threw for 3858 yards
Baker threw 28 TD's Hurts threw for 23 TD's
Baker had 10 interceptions Hurts had 15 Interceptions
Baker had 364 completions Hurts had 352
Baker's passer rating 94.6 Hurts passer rating 89.1
Baker completion % 64.3 Hurts completion % 65.4

It is obvious Hurts is an excellent fantasy QB because he runs well and scores a ton of one yard TD's but he will continue to rush for fewer yards like he has for 3 straight years IMO and his TD's will fluctuate.

Like I said, in my original post, I wouldn't get to excited about Moore coming in based on his system. He is a good OC but sure doesn't look like, at this point anyway, a difference maker.