The Le'Veon Bell Tolls ... To the Ravens

[Butkus51]

I have the 1.02 pick in my upcoming rookie dynasty draft. Non/ppr scoring. I'm pretty solid at WR in this league so I'm looking to add a RB. Lacy, Ball, and Bell are who I'm looking at. Wanted some opinions on who they would take or any others they would consider. Thanks guys.

[sloth8u]

i would not take lacy. i think ball and bell come down to preference. but i do think bell has the higher ceiling, while ball is the safer of the two.

[RobertBobson]

I don't think there's anything safe about crummy montee ball!

I took Bell at 1.02 in a league ( though I tried to trade down, because I thought i could get him later) I took him over gio. Here's why:

For me, the top of the first round has a glut of similarly valued players. Of the players most rank in the top 6, I don't like ball because I think he's a smaller, weaker, less agile version of bell. I also don't love austin, I think he's vastly overrated, but I would take him at the top of the round because his hype is so large, but I would trade him away. Gio I feel is a non-explosive ray rice, and I question how valuable ray rice is without explosion. Hopkins I really liked, and patterson is really risky for me to take at 1.02, I like a safer bet.

So, honestly, Bell came to the top of my list out of attrition more than anything else. Hopkins was the only player I seriously considered taking over him, and I needed a RB more. For me the issue comes down to this: out of the top prospects, Bell had the best speed score, which is what I give the most credence to in measurable data. (A speed score is a weighted measurement of both player's speed and size combined). Ontop of that, I think his situation is by far the best for any rookie runningback. I think he is the clear cut starter on a team that likes to run. I am, in general, a Talent over situation guy when it comes to rookie drafts, but I do use situation to help me slot players within a tier. I think his situation is extremely favorable.


I don't love Bell, by any means. Last year I think he would have gone in the 1.08 range or so. But, in a bad year for the top of the draft, I think he's the safest pick

[Chris_R]

I'd take Bell because a few months ago I was trying to figure out why Lacy was the undisputed 1.01 and I didn't see much of a difference between him and Bell. He's a really good all around back in a situation to be highly productive, and I like what I saw from him at MSU over his career.

[49ersFaithful80]

I agree that Ball is the safe pick among the RB's of this class but has pretty limited upside in my mind.

I certainly don't think Bell is anything special either but he is walking into an amazing situation and he has the kind of body type (6'1 244) and skill set that can dominate touches and stay healthy in the process.

Another significant plus for Bell in my mind is something that people around here don't tend to value.

His age - the kid is only 20 years old, and considering how quickly RB's typically come and go that is big for me.

Look at Chris Johnson, he was 24 when he was drafted. A couple good years later and he will be turning 28 in september.

[tstafford]

Huh. I just commented that I was surprised when Bell went 1.02 in my draft (after Gio at 1.01). Maybe I shouldn't be.

Personally, he's not going to be on any of my teams especially if he's in the mix for people at the 1.02. While there's no arguing that his situation is very favorable, I don't like what I saw on tape at all. And I can't recall anyone highly touting him before the draft - so situation is largely dictating his draft position and that is worrisome to me.

While Gio isn't Ray Rice, there isn't a player in this entire draft that comes close to Ray Rice. I think the issue with Gio is he's been injury prone (a la Demarco Murray). If someone wanted to avoid him for that reason, I'd have no issue but I honestly thing Gio is by far the most dynamic back in this draft.

I suppose it comes down to what you want. Gio is probably more likely to totally bust. But to me Bell is likely to be Shonn Greene - a low end RB2 based largely on volume. If you're good with that, then Bell seems like a solid pick. I just don't recall most Greene owners being happy. Even-though he was a weekly starter in a 3RB or 2RB/flex league.

[sloth8u]

Huh. I just commented that I was surprised when Bell went 1.02 in my draft (after Gio at 1.01). Maybe I shouldn't be.

Personally, he's not going to be on any of my teams especially if he's in the mix for people at the 1.02. While there's no arguing that his situation is very favorable, I don't like what I saw on tape at all. And I can't recall anyone highly touting him before the draft - so situation is largely dictating his draft position and that is worrisome to me.

While Gio isn't Ray Rice, there isn't a player in this entire draft that comes close to Ray Rice. I think the issue with Gio is he's been injury prone (a la Demarco Murray). If someone wanted to avoid him for that reason, I'd have no issue but I honestly thing Gio is by far the most dynamic back in this draft.

I suppose it comes down to what you want. Gio is probably more likely to totally bust. But to me Bell is likely to be Shonn Greene - a low end RB2 based largely on volume. If you're good with that, then Bell seems like a solid pick. I just don't recall most Greene owners being happy. Even-though he was a weekly starter in a 3RB or 2RB/flex league.

do you believe in the possibilty that bell's best football is ahead of him? only 20 yrs old. i see him as a patient runner who will take what is there. i dont see any superior talent yet, but think it could come out. am i way off on thinking he looks patient (not indecisive), he does appear to hit the hole when its there.

[tstafford]

Huh. I just commented that I was surprised when Bell went 1.02 in my draft (after Gio at 1.01). Maybe I shouldn't be.

Personally, he's not going to be on any of my teams especially if he's in the mix for people at the 1.02. While there's no arguing that his situation is very favorable, I don't like what I saw on tape at all. And I can't recall anyone highly touting him before the draft - so situation is largely dictating his draft position and that is worrisome to me.

While Gio isn't Ray Rice, there isn't a player in this entire draft that comes close to Ray Rice. I think the issue with Gio is he's been injury prone (a la Demarco Murray). If someone wanted to avoid him for that reason, I'd have no issue but I honestly thing Gio is by far the most dynamic back in this draft.

I suppose it comes down to what you want. Gio is probably more likely to totally bust. But to me Bell is likely to be Shonn Greene - a low end RB2 based largely on volume. If you're good with that, then Bell seems like a solid pick. I just don't recall most Greene owners being happy. Even-though he was a weekly starter in a 3RB or 2RB/flex league.

do you believe in the possibilty that bell's best football is ahead of him? only 20 yrs old. i see him as a patient runner who will take what is there. i dont see any superior talent yet, but think it could come out. am i way off on thinking he looks patient (not indecisive), he does appear to hit the hole when its there.

The way you ask the question - "believe in the possibility", I certainly have to say yes. Any thing is possible. All I said was that I think his upside isn't that great. But I did say if you have certain expectations he is a "solid pick".

[ericanadian]

I am also shocked by all the love for Bell. I think any belief that he'll just walk into the starting role right out the gate is a bit premature. This is Pittsburgh. They drafted Mendenhall in the first and he got nearly no action in his first season behind a Willie Parker that was clearly done by that point. They don't draft a lot of early round skill positions, but even their defensive guys tend to sit the bulk of their first year with the team.

I also don't think he's all that much better than Dwyer. 4.56 40 vs. Dwyer's 4.59. 6'1 230 vs 5'11 224. Dwyer had a higher YPC in college while Bell had a more established receiving game. Bell also has a history of being tentative at the line.

Finally, this isn't Arians running the show anymore and in case you weren't paying attention, Haley isn't a one back guy unless that guy is a stud to the level of Jamaal Charles or Edgerrin James. Bell isn't that, and you could be looking at the Thomas Jones or Tim Hightower part of a committee here in the long term. That's not terrible, but it's also not what I want to spend the second pick of the draft on either.

I could see looking at him by the mid-first, but at running back I'd rather have Ball, Gio or Lacy without a second thought.

[henry1jg]

This was my reply to a Post made in an Eddie Lacy thread on March 5th:

It obviously depends on what happens in the draft but for now one guy is getting picked at 1.01 in rookie mock drafts and one guy in the 3rd round.

I don't think Le'Veon will be a guy who goes in the 3rd. After the actual NFL draft, I think he'll end up being a 1st rd pick in rookie drafts. He's going to end up in a good spot & I believe he will shoot up dradt boards. I wouldnt rule out Le'Veon going in the top 6 with a Pittsburgh, Atlanta, ot NYJ spot

Now, I'm not trying to toot my own horn here, & I apologize if its perceived that way, but I saw this Le'Veon rise coming from a mile away. In predraft, & even precombine rookie mocks on this site and many other sites, Le'Veon Bell was consistently being taken mid 2nd - mid 3rd. He has the build that gets people excited, so I knew that if he landed a premier spot, people would fall in love with the TD potential & the thought that he can be an every down RB. I ask you this, do yourself a favor & go back to watch the cut ups. I'm no scout, but I see a LOT of runs being bounced outside. This isn't terrible against slow defenses, but he'll rarely get the edge against professionals. Bell is huge, and he's fairly agile, but he does not bring the hammer. He runs like a 195 lb RB, and that just isn't going to cut it.

I will not have Le'Veon on any of my teams unless he falls to the late 1st. Since we all know being in Pittsburgh won't allow for that, I know that I won't have him. Quite frankly, I'm glad. I had him in the teens in my predraft RB rankings, so I'm happy that I am deciding to stick with my initial feeling on him. Best of luck to those who take him, but I don't think you'll be happy about this pick 3-4 years from now.

[shady_phenom]

This was my reply to a Post made in an Eddie Lacy thread on March 5th:

It obviously depends on what happens in the draft but for now one guy is getting picked at 1.01 in rookie mock drafts and one guy in the 3rd round.

I don't think Le'Veon will be a guy who goes in the 3rd. After the actual NFL draft, I think he'll end up being a 1st rd pick in rookie drafts. He's going to end up in a good spot & I believe he will shoot up dradt boards. I wouldnt rule out Le'Veon going in the top 6 with a Pittsburgh, Atlanta, ot NYJ spot

Now, I'm not trying to toot my own horn here, & I apologize if its perceived that way, but I saw this Le'Veon rise coming from a mile away. In predraft, & even precombine rookie mocks on this site and many other sites, Le'Veon Bell was consistently being taken mid 2nd - mid 3rd. He has the build that gets people excited, so I knew that if he landed a premier spot, people would fall in love with the TD potential & the thought that he can be an every down RB. I ask you this, do yourself a favor & go back to watch the cut ups. I'm no scout, but I see a LOT of runs being bounced outside. This isn't terrible against slow defenses, but he'll rarely get the edge against professionals. Bell is huge, and he's fairly agile, but he does not bring the hammer. He runs like a 195 lb RB, and that just isn't going to cut it.

I will not have Le'Veon on any of my teams unless he falls to the late 1st. Since we all know being in Pittsburgh won't allow for that, I know that I won't have him. Quite frankly, I'm glad. I had him in the teens in my predraft RB rankings, so I'm happy that I am deciding to stick with my initial feeling on him. Best of luck to those who take him, but I don't think you'll be happy about this pick 3-4 years from now.

Agree with you all the way on Bell, and he is not planned for any of my teams....but to be honest, a lot of love for him on this site has had me second guessing and going back to watch clips....

Curious how you have the rookie class ranked?

[sloth8u]

This was my reply to a Post made in an Eddie Lacy thread on March 5th:

It obviously depends on what happens in the draft but for now one guy is getting picked at 1.01 in rookie mock drafts and one guy in the 3rd round.

I don't think Le'Veon will be a guy who goes in the 3rd. After the actual NFL draft, I think he'll end up being a 1st rd pick in rookie drafts. He's going to end up in a good spot & I believe he will shoot up dradt boards. I wouldnt rule out Le'Veon going in the top 6 with a Pittsburgh, Atlanta, ot NYJ spot

Now, I'm not trying to toot my own horn here, & I apologize if its perceived that way, but I saw this Le'Veon rise coming from a mile away. In predraft, & even precombine rookie mocks on this site and many other sites, Le'Veon Bell was consistently being taken mid 2nd - mid 3rd. He has the build that gets people excited, so I knew that if he landed a premier spot, people would fall in love with the TD potential & the thought that he can be an every down RB. I ask you this, do yourself a favor & go back to watch the cut ups. I'm no scout, but I see a LOT of runs being bounced outside. This isn't terrible against slow defenses, but he'll rarely get the edge against professionals. Bell is huge, and he's fairly agile, but he does not bring the hammer. He runs like a 195 lb RB, and that just isn't going to cut it.

I will not have Le'Veon on any of my teams unless he falls to the late 1st. Since we all know being in Pittsburgh won't allow for that, I know that I won't have him. Quite frankly, I'm glad. I had him in the teens in my predraft RB rankings, so I'm happy that I am deciding to stick with my initial feeling on him. Best of luck to those who take him, but I don't think you'll be happy about this pick 3-4 years from now.

i value the majority of your thoughts on the site and see exactly where you are comming from, but its hard not to look at a 20 yr old rb like him and not want to gamble. i think he is the best rb in pitt and that has value. i think if he does get the job, he ends up being top 20 rb. do you disagree with that? most can agree that there are no known studs in this draft class. so if you need a rb, and want someone to contribute for a couple years, if you believe he is a top 20 guy....i think you take him. i personally like others better than him as well. but those guys may or may not contribute for a couple years. by then, you have to believe in your instincts to not let them go.

[RobertBobson]

I want to be clear, I don't particularly love Bells long term value. If I can sell him at some point next year at low RB1 value, I will. Me taking Bell this high is more a reflection of what I think of the rest of the class, than what i think of him.

[tstafford]

I want to be clear, I don't particularly love Bells long term value. If I can sell him at some point next year at low RB1 value, I will. Me taking Bell this high is more a reflection of what I think of the rest of the class, than what i think of him.

That seems completely reasonable to me. We've said for a long time this class would be weak - and it is. I think taking a gamble on Bell and seeing if you can flip him quickly is wise. Low end RB1 sounds high to me as that would be like Lynch or Forte, but maybe you can get that.

[zeeshan2]

If you can flip him for someone else, that's great. If you draft him thinking he's going to be a top 5 RB, you are going to be dissapointed.

Just be careful of the Daniel Thomas Syndrome.