Way, way, waaaay too early 2023 Draft class thread

[Jigga94]

The depth of this class is what's really impressing me and we are only 4 weeks in. Usually the late round picks take a while to rise up depth charts. I traded back out of the late 1st a lot this year. Give me multiple swings in the 2nd over 1 guy that I was maybe slightly higher on. Happy about that.

2 QB hits of the top 3 so far. Thats about normal. Maybe Bryce hits to an extent and it's 3/3. That would be above expectations. Some of the other QBs have had a little buzz and opportunity already. Nothing has come from it yet, but I'd expect one late round QB to find their way, as they typically do.

For RB, Bijan is as advertised. Gibbs not so much (yet) and then we are still waiting for Charbs/Kendre to get their shot. Achane has outperformed to date. The depth has been good too. Spears/Roschon are getting good workloads so far.

TE Laporta seems to be a stud. Kincaid and Musgrave show some promise. I'm probably out on Mayer at cost. Still 3 or 4 TE from a class is solid.

WR has the real depth. Mims, Reed, Puka, Wilson all look very good to me. Tank, Rice and Downs all look like good pieces for NFL, but maybe not fantasy. Palmer and Wicks were pretty much free and are playing a lot already.

[Cameron Giles]

PFF highest graded rookies so far:

De’Von Achane, 93.5
Puka Nacua, 89.5
Rashee Rice, 79.0
Sam LaPorta, 78.8
Zach Charbonnet, 75.8
Bijan Robinson, 75.6
Zay Flowers, 75.5
Tank Dell, 74.7
C.J. Stroud, 73.3

[j4pac]

PFF highest graded rookies so far:

De’Von Achane, 93.5
Puka Nacua, 89.5
Rashee Rice, 79.0
Sam LaPorta, 78.8
Zach Charbonnet, 75.8
Bijan Robinson, 75.6
Zay Flowers, 75.5
Tank Dell, 74.7
C.J. Stroud, 73.3

Charbonnet is frustrating. He’s really good…but he’s unplayable right now. But the moment I trade him he’ll go off and I’ll regret my decision. I can predict the future

[Orenthal Shames]

Rookie Scoring Through 12 weeks:

Top 5 QB, and another who showed promise In ARich

2 top 12 RBs

7 WRs in the top 40

2 top 10 TEs

[Cameron Giles]

Rookie Scoring Through 12 weeks:

Top 5 QB, and another who showed promise In ARich

2 top 12 RBs

7 WRs in the top 40

2 top 10 TEs

"This class sucks. What a disappointment."

[Sriracha]

Rookie Scoring Through 12 weeks:

Top 5 QB, and another who showed promise In ARich

2 top 12 RBs

7 WRs in the top 40

2 top 10 TEs

"This class sucks. What a disappointment."

I want to say the depth has been historical.

Puka, Dell, Wilson (tentative), Downs all making noise their rookie year as 3rd round picks+ is almost unheard of.

Add in Jalin Hyatt who had his first 100 yard game and 5th rounder Dontayvion Wicks who haven't really had the opportunity but have shown promising periphery stats and I don't believe we've ever seen so many hits in the later rounds.

[Kurtrambis1]

Rookie Scoring Through 12 weeks:

Top 5 QB, and another who showed promise In ARich

2 top 12 RBs

7 WRs in the top 40

2 top 10 TEs

"This class sucks. What a disappointment."

I want to say the depth has been historical.

Puka, Dell, Wilson (tentative), Downs all making noise their rookie year as 3rd round picks+ is almost unheard of.

Add in Jalin Hyatt who had his first 100 yard game and 5th rounder Dontayvion Wicks who haven't really had the opportunity but have shown promising periphery stats and I don't believe we've ever seen so many hits in the later rounds.

I have a theory that we will see some more "random" outliers due to COVID occur more frequently. Players lost valuable time in the weight/ film room, or lost opportunities to show their abilities in front of recruiters. Had to sit behind a player who used their extra year of eligibility. No idea if it is the case, but the ripples of COVID shutting down everything could come through in this way.

[Sriracha]

"This class sucks. What a disappointment."

I want to say the depth has been historical.

Puka, Dell, Wilson (tentative), Downs all making noise their rookie year as 3rd round picks+ is almost unheard of.

Add in Jalin Hyatt who had his first 100 yard game and 5th rounder Dontayvion Wicks who haven't really had the opportunity but have shown promising periphery stats and I don't believe we've ever seen so many hits in the later rounds.

I have a theory that we will see some more "random" outliers due to COVID occur more frequently. Players lost valuable time in the weight/ film room, or lost opportunities to show their abilities in front of recruiters. Had to sit behind a player who used their extra year of eligibility. No idea if it is the case, but the ripples of COVID shutting down everything could come through in this way.

I believe that's very possible; Especially given the age of these receivers and the typical hit rate of Senior declares

[Orenthal Shames]

Rookie Scoring Through 12 weeks:

Top 5 QB, and another who showed promise In ARich

2 top 12 RBs

7 WRs in the top 40

2 top 10 TEs

"This class sucks. What a disappointment."

I want to say the depth has been historical.

Puka, Dell, Wilson (tentative), Downs all making noise their rookie year as 3rd round picks+ is almost unheard of.

Add in Jalin Hyatt who had his first 100 yard game and 5th rounder Dontayvion Wicks who haven't really had the opportunity but have shown promising periphery stats and I don't believe we've ever seen so many hits in the later rounds.

This doesn't account for Achane, JSN, Musgrave, etc. Just a monster class

[Shcritters]

I went back and looked at the first round of my main TEP draft... 7/12 first rounders look like hits so far with an additional 3 not enough to know yet (2 are TE's, so likely too early to say). That's pretty unheard of.
ARich - looked good until injured
Bijan - Not 'world beater' like we thought he would be, but still a hit
Kincaid - Top6 TE going forward
Stroud - Best pick of the draft
Young - Bust (semi-predictable)
Gibbs - Has looked great when healthy
JSN - Has come on strong recently, knew he would most likely be a 2024 play
Mayer - Semi-miss so far... but that team can't support more than Jacobs/Adams (and sometimes Myers)
LaPorta - Top6 TE going forward
QJ - Bust (warning flags everywhere)
Addison - great value in back-half of 1st
Musgrave - Has done great as a rookie with a brand-new starter in Love at QB. Likely top 12 TE going forward.

[tstafford]

"This class sucks. What a disappointment."

I want to say the depth has been historical.

Puka, Dell, Wilson (tentative), Downs all making noise their rookie year as 3rd round picks+ is almost unheard of.

Add in Jalin Hyatt who had his first 100 yard game and 5th rounder Dontayvion Wicks who haven't really had the opportunity but have shown promising periphery stats and I don't believe we've ever seen so many hits in the later rounds.

This doesn't account for Achane, JSN, Musgrave, etc. Just a monster class

Is it? Or has the NFL figured out how to make young players effective faster?

[Mike11]

I want to say the depth has been historical.

Puka, Dell, Wilson (tentative), Downs all making noise their rookie year as 3rd round picks+ is almost unheard of.

Add in Jalin Hyatt who had his first 100 yard game and 5th rounder Dontayvion Wicks who haven't really had the opportunity but have shown promising periphery stats and I don't believe we've ever seen so many hits in the later rounds.

This doesn't account for Achane, JSN, Musgrave, etc. Just a monster class

Is it? Or has the NFL figured out how to make young players effective faster?

I think it’s the opposite, players come in as what they are and we aren’t seeing massive changes in adjustment year over year. Good players continue to improve but players who start bad rarely if ever turn it around, like Jeudy, Jameson, etc. Brady had a rant about coaches and coaching in the NFL being not what it used to be and I think it’s true. Teams somewhat draft guys to just contribute day one and if you’re not the investment to make you better isn’t what it once was. Maybe inaccurate but the days of players incrementally becoming monsters like Davante Adams is less and less common.

That tells me we should give up on guys not blowing it up early faster but obviously that’s case by case. Hearing people call JSN a hit based on what he’s done to date is a joke. He’s got the situation where he’s buried and I have no problem people holding but I don’t want to hear about a guy who isn’t topping 60/70 yards with a sub 50 open score being a hit.

[Cameron Giles]

This doesn't account for Achane, JSN, Musgrave, etc. Just a monster class

Is it? Or has the NFL figured out how to make young players effective faster?

I think it’s the opposite, players come in as what they are and we aren’t seeing massive changes in adjustment year over year. Good players continue to improve but players who start bad rarely if ever turn it around, like Jeudy, Jameson, etc. Brady had a rant about coaches and coaching in the NFL being not what it used to be and I think it’s true. Teams somewhat draft guys to just contribute day one and if you’re not the investment to make you better isn’t what it once was. Maybe inaccurate but the days of players incrementally becoming monsters like Davante Adams is less and less common.

That tells me we should give up on guys not blowing it up early faster but obviously that’s case by case. Hearing people call JSN a hit based on what he’s done to date is a joke. He’s got the situation where he’s buried and I have no problem people holding but I don’t want to hear about a guy who isn’t topping 60/70 yards with a sub 50 open score being a hit.

I think we've just seen a better way to be realistic about how you manage risk. Before, if a rookie WR was unproductive it was easier to shrug off because it did take time.

Now, there's more advanced stats, more ways to compare historical data, access to game tape, and media commentary that can help us fill in those gaps to understand why a player is producing or why a player isn't producing. So, you can be much more meticulous about when you admit to mistakes early or when there are signs that a player is actually a lot better than his production suggests.

[Cameron Giles]

"This class is disappointing. Sell your picks."
"What a letdown..."
"Overhyped."

This class ended up being one of the most balanced rookie classes in recent memory as advertised.

In terms of points/game:

- 1 QB in the Top-12
- 3 RBs in the Top-18
- 6 WRs in the Top-36
- 2 TEs in the Top-14

C.J. Stroud - QB10
De'Von Achane - RB5
Jahmyr Gibbs - RB8
Bijan Robinson - RB17
Puka Nacua - WR6
Tank Dell - WR19
Jayden Reed - WR27
Rashee Rice - WR29
Jordan Addison - WR31
Zay Flowers - WR32
Sam LaPorta - TE3
Dalton Kincaid - TE13

Not to mention, players like Anthony Richardson, Josh Downs, Luke Musgrave, Dontayvion Wicks, etc. who played very well and flashed at different points of the season. This class ended up having something for everyone and there's still more upside for it going forward.

I'd definitely be poking around for a few players from this class who didn't quite put up big numbers yet, but flashed enough.

[murphysxm]

"This class is disappointing. Sell your picks."
"What a letdown..."
"Overhyped."

This class ended up being one of the most balanced rookie classes in recent memory as advertised.

I feel like we have said this before ......