Tua Tagovailoa Thread

[tstafford]

I’m not following you at all. I’m not making any long term decisions on anyone playing two games a year. I’m talking about Tua.

The way I look at it, 3 of 4 years, Tua has been a mid QB2 or worse. Would I take him before someone that plays a handful of games a year? Obviously. But it makes no sense to me to value super highly when there are Joe Flacco’s of the world who may pop up and outscore him for a couple months…or Jake Browning scoring the same. It just means he’s more easily replaceable.

Obviously Tua has value as a full time starter. How much value to place in him is the real question, and everyone’s answer is likely different.

Isn't this more or less how most people see Tua? I have him on both an SF and 1QB team and see him as a solid QB2. I'd prefer not to start him in 1QB but will on bye weeks, injury or a particularly juicy match-up. In SF, he's obviously a lock and load every week starter for most managers. DLF ranks him as QB13 and aside from Purdy, there's no one after him that I'd consider taking over him. Watson, Fields, Young, Goff, etc. It's simple - there's no upside because he doesn't rush but there's a decent floor because of the offense/team around him.

It is.

When people bring Joe Flacco into a discussion about Tua, it's kind of hard for me to know where to go next without feeling like I'm on an episode of Candid Camera or Punk'd. Hey, I'm the biggest Flacco fan around and have had his back since way back when people were saying he didn't earn his superbowl victory.

But in 2024, Flacco doesn't have a starting job in the NFL, and he didn't go into 2023 with one either. I understand the comparison was not only Flacco, but any random backup QB who might luck into a starting role for three or six games in any given season. To compare Tua to a player like that seems wild. But that is where a lot of people seemingly put Tua's value. As if they'd rather go into a season with a combination of Dobbs/Flacco/Minshew/Tyrod rather than Tua. Or others who say they'd rather have an opportunity to draft the 4th or 5th rookie QB rather than hold Tua.

And I'm cool with that. I have a different valuation of Tua, but everyone is entitled to formulate their own valuation. Not taking a dig at freirich5. Just truly befuddled by the mid-scale Tua devaluation.

I see. I probably missed the nuances as this thread is a bit TLDR.

I suppose people can play the game anyway they want. But there's no way I'm going in the a season in SF and trying to cobble my QB2 together with the likes of Dobbs/Minshew/etc. over just rostering Tua. As to the rookies, I'm taking CW or Daniels over Tua because of value and upside. But after that, I'd stick with Tua. Might miss on Maye that way, but I'm okay with that.

[frerichs5]

I’m not following you at all. I’m not making any long term decisions on anyone playing two games a year. I’m talking about Tua.

The way I look at it, 3 of 4 years, Tua has been a mid QB2 or worse. Would I take him before someone that plays a handful of games a year? Obviously. But it makes no sense to me to value super highly when there are Joe Flacco’s of the world who may pop up and outscore him for a couple months…or Jake Browning scoring the same. It just means he’s more easily replaceable.

Obviously Tua has value as a full time starter. How much value to place in him is the real question, and everyone’s answer is likely different.

Isn't this more or less how most people see Tua? I have him on both an SF and 1QB team and see him as a solid QB2. I'd prefer not to start him in 1QB but will on bye weeks, injury or a particularly juicy match-up. In SF, he's obviously a lock and load every week starter for most managers. DLF ranks him as QB13 and aside from Purdy, there's no one after him that I'd consider taking over him. Watson, Fields, Young, Goff, etc. It's simple - there's no upside because he doesn't rush but there's a decent floor because of the offense/team around him.

It is.

When people bring Joe Flacco into a discussion about Tua, it's kind of hard for me to know where to go next without feeling like I'm on an episode of Candid Camera or Punk'd. Hey, I'm the biggest Flacco fan around and have had his back since way back when people were saying he didn't earn his superbowl victory.

But in 2024, Flacco doesn't have a starting job in the NFL, and he didn't go into 2023 with one either. I understand the comparison was not only Flacco, but any random backup QB who might luck into a starting role for three or six games in any given season. To compare Tua to a player like that seems wild. But that is where a lot of people seemingly put Tua's value. As if they'd rather go into a season with a combination of Dobbs/Flacco/Minshew/Tyrod rather than Tua. Or others who say they'd rather trade Tua for the 1.09 (in SF) and have an opportunity to draft the 4th or 5th rookie QB rather than hold Tua.

And I'm cool with that. I have a different valuation of Tua, but everyone is entitled to formulate their own valuation. Not taking a dig at freirich5. Just truly befuddled by the mid-scale Tua devaluation.

Except I’m not saying any of that at all. Not comparing Tua’s dynasty value to their value. It’s quite literally in the top post you quoted here I’m taking him over guys that only start an handful of games a year. Only comparison I’m making is their scoring. And to date in his career, outside of year 3, Tua’s scoring has been pretty replaceable.

[Anteaters]

Isn't this more or less how most people see Tua? I have him on both an SF and 1QB team and see him as a solid QB2. I'd prefer not to start him in 1QB but will on bye weeks, injury or a particularly juicy match-up. In SF, he's obviously a lock and load every week starter for most managers. DLF ranks him as QB13 and aside from Purdy, there's no one after him that I'd consider taking over him. Watson, Fields, Young, Goff, etc. It's simple - there's no upside because he doesn't rush but there's a decent floor because of the offense/team around him.

It is.

When people bring Joe Flacco into a discussion about Tua, it's kind of hard for me to know where to go next without feeling like I'm on an episode of Candid Camera or Punk'd. Hey, I'm the biggest Flacco fan around and have had his back since way back when people were saying he didn't earn his superbowl victory.

But in 2024, Flacco doesn't have a starting job in the NFL, and he didn't go into 2023 with one either. I understand the comparison was not only Flacco, but any random backup QB who might luck into a starting role for three or six games in any given season. To compare Tua to a player like that seems wild. But that is where a lot of people seemingly put Tua's value. As if they'd rather go into a season with a combination of Dobbs/Flacco/Minshew/Tyrod rather than Tua. Or others who say they'd rather trade Tua for the 1.09 (in SF) and have an opportunity to draft the 4th or 5th rookie QB rather than hold Tua.

And I'm cool with that. I have a different valuation of Tua, but everyone is entitled to formulate their own valuation. Not taking a dig at freirich5. Just truly befuddled by the mid-scale Tua devaluation.

Except I’m not saying any of that at all. Not comparing Tua’s dynasty value to their value. It’s quite literally in the top post you quoted here I’m taking him over guys that only start an handful of games a year. Only comparison I’m making is their scoring. And to date in his career, outside of year 3, Tua’s scoring has been pretty replaceable.

Clearly we don't see this the same way.

Joshua Dobbs had a run in 2023 where he was averaged being a T5QB for scoring. Does that all of a sudden indicate we should devalue Herbert just because Dobbs happened to luck into a starting role for a few weeks and had some good games? Dobbs scoring more than Herbert/TLaw for a few weeks does not make Herbert&TLaw bad holds in dynasty. It's a good showing for Dobbs, but not an indictment against Herbert.

It doesn't make sense to devalue Tua because Flacco might score similar points for four games, but NOT devalue other QBs when Dobbs outscores (or scores on par with) them for a few weeks. Flashes in a pan always happen, especially with journeymen QBs. Generally no one says we should trade proven starters with job security for a three-week wonder.

It's great to nab one of those guys and ride him through a hot streak. It's not so good to trade a sure starter for a flash in the pan, and be left with an NFL backup QB a few weeks later.

If you don't like Tua, don't trust Tua, don't want to roster Tua, I think that's great. Don't roster him. Blame it on his concussions, or say you don't like his arm strength or decision making, or whatever. But don't blame it on a back-up QB hitting a three-week hot streak.

[frerichs5]

Clearly we don't see this the same way.

Joshua Dobbs had a run in 2023 where he was averaged being a T5QB for scoring. Does that all of a sudden indicate we should devalue Herbert just because Dobbs happened to luck into a starting role for a few weeks and had some good games? Dobbs scoring more than Herbert/TLaw for a few weeks does not make Herbert&TLaw bad holds in dynasty. It's a good showing for Dobbs, but not an indictment against Herbert.

It doesn't make sense to devalue Tua because Flacco might score similar points for four games, but NOT devalue other QBs when Dobbs outscores (or scores on par with) them for a few weeks. Flashes in a pan always happen, especially with journeymen QBs. Generally no one says we should trade proven starters with job security for a three-week wonder.

It's great to nab one of those guys and ride him through a hot streak. It's not so good to trade a sure starter for a flash in the pan, and be left with an NFL backup QB a few weeks later.

If you don't like Tua, don't trust Tua, don't want to roster Tua, I think that's great. Don't roster him. Blame it on his concussions, or say you don't like his arm strength or decision making, or whatever. But don't blame it on a back-up QB hitting a three-week hot streak.

Clearly

And I’m not sure why you keep bringing up trading Tua for one of those backups. Never have I suggested that’s a good idea. Lol

And for the last time, it’s not so much a backup QB hitting a hot streak as it is 3/4 years Tua has been a PPG mid QB2 or worse. If you don’t see how that’s more replaceable than someone who’s been a QB1 ppg 3/4 years, I’ve got nothing else to say.

And never did I say I don’t look at other QBs the same (yes, I think TLaw is overvalued for many of the same reasons). Definitely has value as a full time starter, but I don’t think he should be rated top 10 or whatever because his scoring is too replaceable right now.

[Anteaters]

Clearly we don't see this the same way.

Joshua Dobbs had a run in 2023 where he was averaged being a T5QB for scoring. Does that all of a sudden indicate we should devalue Herbert just because Dobbs happened to luck into a starting role for a few weeks and had some good games? Dobbs scoring more than Herbert/TLaw for a few weeks does not make Herbert&TLaw bad holds in dynasty. It's a good showing for Dobbs, but not an indictment against Herbert.

It doesn't make sense to devalue Tua because Flacco might score similar points for four games, but NOT devalue other QBs when Dobbs outscores (or scores on par with) them for a few weeks. Flashes in a pan always happen, especially with journeymen QBs. Generally no one says we should trade proven starters with job security for a three-week wonder.

It's great to nab one of those guys and ride him through a hot streak. It's not so good to trade a sure starter for a flash in the pan, and be left with an NFL backup QB a few weeks later.

If you don't like Tua, don't trust Tua, don't want to roster Tua, I think that's great. Don't roster him. Blame it on his concussions, or say you don't like his arm strength or decision making, or whatever. But don't blame it on a back-up QB hitting a three-week hot streak.

Clearly

And I’m not sure why you keep bringing up trading Tua for one of those backups. Never have I suggested that’s a good idea. Lol

And for the last time, it’s not so much a backup QB hitting a hot streak as it is 3/4 years Tua has been a PPG mid QB2 or worse. If you don’t see how that’s more replaceable than someone who’s been a QB1 ppg 3/4 years, I’ve got nothing else to say.

And never did I say I don’t look at other QBs the same (yes, I think TLaw is overvalued for many of the same reasons). Definitely has value as a full time starter, but I don’t think he should be rated top 10 or whatever because his scoring is too replaceable right now.

I guess I got sidetracked by the mention of backup NFL QBs in this discussion. I'm glad the inclusion of backup NFL QBs aren't pertinent in this discussion.

[mild]

I guess I got sidetracked by the mention of backup NFL QBs in this discussion. I'm glad the inclusion of backup NFL QBs aren't pertinent in this discussion.

They're pertinent insofar as they score about the same amount (or more) as Tua in some cases.

[Ryantacular]

Update through four seasons.

If availability and total season points are your thing (per fantasy pros):
2020: QB31
2021: QB26
2022: QB15
2023: QB9

If you prefer PPG (I tried to eliminate guys who only played one game):
2020: QB29
2021: QB23
2022: QB9
2023: QB19

2023 was Tua’s healthiest year, but took a decent step back from last year in production per game (compared to other QBs at least). Will be interesting to see if 2022 was the outlier as his other years suggest a mid-backend QB2.

Took a step back? Tua threw for 1100 more yards in 2023 vs 2022 with only slightly less yards per attempt.