Julio,Ridley,Pitts,AJ Brown,Henry..

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Re: Julio,Ridley,Pitts,AJ Brown,Henry..

Postby Bronco Billy » Sun Jun 06, 2021 1:14 pm

Blueboy wrote: Sun Jun 06, 2021 11:41 am
Pitts now has to break rookie TE records or he'll be a 'disappointment' and have his dynasty value fall.
That makes little sense. Yeah, try to pry him loose from his owner next year for less than the draft capital expended on him if he shows that he can play but doesn’t break the rookie TE records. If you’re drafting a TE that highly in FF you know that you have to be patient. TE may have the steepest learning curve in the NFL aside from QBs. You aren’t going to give that kind of talent away with a year under his belt at any kind of discount.

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Re: Julio,Ridley,Pitts,AJ Brown,Henry..

Postby Bronco Billy » Sun Jun 06, 2021 1:18 pm

I’m really curious to see how the TEN coaching staff reacts to this change. They’ve got an opportunity to morph themselves into potentially the best team in the conference or close to it. That offense now could become as much of a pick your poison as KC’s is. But that’s going to require some changes in the playbook and play calling, and it’s going to have to happen quickly.

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Re: Julio,Ridley,Pitts,AJ Brown,Henry..

Postby OhCruelestRanter » Sun Jun 06, 2021 1:18 pm

People are double counting Julio leaving. This was already baked into Pitts’ value- everybody knew Julio would be traded. If you’re adjusting your value again, you’re probably doing it wrong.
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Re: Julio,Ridley,Pitts,AJ Brown,Henry..

Postby qazxswedcvfrtgbnhyuj » Sun Jun 06, 2021 2:26 pm

Another winner for me, especially in SF, is Tannehill.

Hard to believe his resurgence tbh, but after last season I am a believer. This Julio news now just makes me a little happier I bought where I could.

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Re: Julio,Ridley,Pitts,AJ Brown,Henry..

Postby murphysxm » Sun Jun 06, 2021 2:44 pm

This may be based on my Colts bias, but I hate this spot for Julio. Tanny does not throw a long ball well. I see a future HOF about to limp to the finish line. I hope I am wrong.
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Re: Julio,Ridley,Pitts,AJ Brown,Henry..

Postby Blueboy » Sun Jun 06, 2021 2:59 pm

Bronco Billy wrote: Sun Jun 06, 2021 1:14 pm
Blueboy wrote: Sun Jun 06, 2021 11:41 am
Pitts now has to break rookie TE records or he'll be a 'disappointment' and have his dynasty value fall.
That makes little sense. Yeah, try to pry him loose from his owner next year for less than the draft capital expended on him if he shows that he can play but doesn’t break the rookie TE records. If you’re drafting a TE that highly in FF you know that you have to be patient. TE may have the steepest learning curve in the NFL aside from QBs. You aren’t going to give that kind of talent away with a year under his belt at any kind of discount.
I didn't say it's smart, but it'll happen. He's widely ranked as a top-8 tight end (redraft), and his apparent opportunity is has only grown. If he has the usual TE rookie struggles and can't match those expectations, the people who ranked him as a startable TE1 will be disappointed.

12-team SF, PPR, TE premium, 0.25 PPCarry
1QB 2RB 2WR 1TE 1SF 4Flex
QB: Mahomes, Fields, Love
RB: Bijan, ETN, Pollard, Achane, Herbert
WR: Kupp, Hill, Metcalf, Ridley, Jeudy, D.J. M, Burks, Hollywood, Wan'Dale
TE: Kyle Pitts, Goedert

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Re: Julio,Ridley,Pitts,AJ Brown,Henry..

Postby Pac_Eddy » Sun Jun 06, 2021 3:50 pm

Blueboy wrote: Sun Jun 06, 2021 2:59 pm
Bronco Billy wrote: Sun Jun 06, 2021 1:14 pm
Blueboy wrote: Sun Jun 06, 2021 11:41 am
Pitts now has to break rookie TE records or he'll be a 'disappointment' and have his dynasty value fall.
That makes little sense. Yeah, try to pry him loose from his owner next year for less than the draft capital expended on him if he shows that he can play but doesn’t break the rookie TE records. If you’re drafting a TE that highly in FF you know that you have to be patient. TE may have the steepest learning curve in the NFL aside from QBs. You aren’t going to give that kind of talent away with a year under his belt at any kind of discount.
I didn't say it's smart, but it'll happen. He's widely ranked as a top-8 tight end (redraft), and his apparent opportunity is has only grown. If he has the usual TE rookie struggles and can't match those expectations, the people who ranked him as a startable TE1 will be disappointed.
I think so too. Kind of like CEH last season. Expectations were nearly impossibly high.
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Re: Julio,Ridley,Pitts,AJ Brown,Henry..

Postby Bronco Billy » Sun Jun 06, 2021 4:07 pm

Blueboy wrote: Sun Jun 06, 2021 2:59 pm
Bronco Billy wrote: Sun Jun 06, 2021 1:14 pm
Blueboy wrote: Sun Jun 06, 2021 11:41 am
Pitts now has to break rookie TE records or he'll be a 'disappointment' and have his dynasty value fall.
That makes little sense. Yeah, try to pry him loose from his owner next year for less than the draft capital expended on him if he shows that he can play but doesn’t break the rookie TE records. If you’re drafting a TE that highly in FF you know that you have to be patient. TE may have the steepest learning curve in the NFL aside from QBs. You aren’t going to give that kind of talent away with a year under his belt at any kind of discount.
I didn't say it's smart, but it'll happen. He's widely ranked as a top-8 tight end (redraft), and his apparent opportunity is has only grown. If he has the usual TE rookie struggles and can't match those expectations, the people who ranked him as a startable TE1 will be disappointed.
You’re talking about his redraft value?

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Re: Julio,Ridley,Pitts,AJ Brown,Henry..

Postby StripesOfKC » Sun Jun 06, 2021 4:12 pm

murphysxm wrote: Sun Jun 06, 2021 2:44 pm This may be based on my Colts bias, but I hate this spot for Julio. Tanny does not throw a long ball well. I see a future HOF about to limp to the finish line. I hope I am wrong.
https://www.nfl.com/news/next-gen-stats ... ds-at-no-4

"And finally, coming in on the low end of downfield attempts can hurt a quarterback's chances of earning a spot here, as well. Ryan Tannehill posted a 100.9 passer rating, a 5:2 TD-to-INT ratio and a CPOE of +4.2 percent on deep throws, but gained just 514 yards (last among qualifiers) via those attempts. He ended up just outside the top 10 along with Matthew Stafford and Mahomes."

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Re: Julio,Ridley,Pitts,AJ Brown,Henry..

Postby Shoreline Steamers » Sun Jun 06, 2021 6:00 pm

lic217 wrote: Sun Jun 06, 2021 12:17 pm Bad for Matt Ryan and Julio Jones. Good everybody else on the Titans and on the Falcons
Unless you're Josh Reynolds. :vsad:
14 Team, No-PPR, 20 Man Roster, TD Heavy, TD = 6, FG = 3, Start: QB, 2RB, 2WR, TE, Flex, K, D
QB: L. Jackson, B. Purdy, T. Lance
RB: J. Mixon, N. Chubb, A. Dillon, J. Cook, K. Mitchell, J. McLaughlin, Z. Evans
WR: J. Chase, C. Godwin, D. Johnson, J. Reed, C. Tillman
TE: TJ Hockenson, D. Njoku, B. Jordan

14 Team, .5 PPR, 18 Man Roster, Rush/Rec TD = 6, Pass TD = 4, FG = 3, Start: QB, 2RB, 2WR, TE, Flex, K, D
QB: L. Jackson, T. Tagovailoa
RB: B. Robinson, K. Walker, R. Stevenson, K. Herbertl
WR: C. Olave, T. Higgins, B. Aiyuk, N. Collins, Z. Flowers, M. Mims
TE: K. Pitts, D. Njoku

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Re: Julio,Ridley,Pitts,AJ Brown,Henry..

Postby Cameron Giles » Sun Jun 06, 2021 7:15 pm

Bronco Billy wrote: Sun Jun 06, 2021 1:18 pm I’m really curious to see how the TEN coaching staff reacts to this change. They’ve got an opportunity to morph themselves into potentially the best team in the conference or close to it. That offense now could become as much of a pick your poison as KC’s is. But that’s going to require some changes in the playbook and play calling, and it’s going to have to happen quickly.
Tennessee last year was Top 5 in points for, points per play, and total DVOA.

They don't really need to change the playbook or playcalling. They have a good balanced offense. They were already one of the league's best offenses. Adding Julio preserves that and makes it more difficult for secondaries to match up.

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Re: Julio,Ridley,Pitts,AJ Brown,Henry..

Postby Hottoddies » Sun Jun 06, 2021 7:55 pm

jordanzs wrote: Sun Jun 06, 2021 12:10 pm It would be really annoying if Pitts converts to a WR like Colston did. I want those TE premium points out of him.
Can we just quit the false narrative that Colston was EVER a TE? Colston played his entire career in high school, college, and in the NFL at the WR position. Colston was NEVER a TE! Period. End of story.

Atlanta has zero motivation to list Pitts as a WR. I believe the salary structures are higher for WRs. At least it is when it comes to the franchise tag.
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Re: Julio,Ridley,Pitts,AJ Brown,Henry..

Postby Bronco Billy » Mon Jun 07, 2021 5:25 am

Cameron Giles wrote: Sun Jun 06, 2021 7:15 pm
Bronco Billy wrote: Sun Jun 06, 2021 1:18 pm I’m really curious to see how the TEN coaching staff reacts to this change. They’ve got an opportunity to morph themselves into potentially the best team in the conference or close to it. That offense now could become as much of a pick your poison as KC’s is. But that’s going to require some changes in the playbook and play calling, and it’s going to have to happen quickly.
Tennessee last year was Top 5 in points for, points per play, and total DVOA.

They don't really need to change the playbook or playcalling. They have a good balanced offense. They were already one of the league's best offenses. Adding Julio preserves that and makes it more difficult for secondaries to match up.
They were also 30th in the league in passing attempts and 23rd in passing yds, and lost in the wild card round in the playoffs because BAL took away their run game and TEN had no answer to that. If they’re going to be more than division title contenders they’re going to have to move the ball through the air more than they did last year and dedicate more of their offense to passing.

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Re: Julio,Ridley,Pitts,AJ Brown,Henry..

Postby ColdZealDonkeyStrike » Mon Jun 07, 2021 6:02 am

Why are people falling over themselves to discount Pitts? Sure, if Pitts is less than rookie Evan Engram, his owners are going to be disappointed. But if he puts up 700+ yards, he's still not going to be cheaper than an early 1st. and if he puts up 900+ yards at barely 21, he'll be untouchable. Do people really see him not getting upwards of 110 targets? Or do they think the "TE" next to his name is going to make him wildly inefficient getting those targets?
I think there's as much an argument for Pitts at 1.01 as Chase or Harris in PPR/1QB. If you're a contending team that traded for the pick but doesn't have one of the big 3, it's fine to take him. Sure, the expectation was built in that Julio would leave, and his price reflected that. But now it's official and the early career risk has gone down significantly.
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Re: Julio,Ridley,Pitts,AJ Brown,Henry..

Postby ColdZealDonkeyStrike » Mon Jun 07, 2021 6:17 am

Hottoddies wrote: Sun Jun 06, 2021 7:55 pm
jordanzs wrote: Sun Jun 06, 2021 12:10 pm It would be really annoying if Pitts converts to a WR like Colston did. I want those TE premium points out of him.
Can we just quit the false narrative that Colston was EVER a TE? Colston played his entire career in high school, college, and in the NFL at the WR position. Colston was NEVER a TE! Period. End of story.

Atlanta has zero motivation to list Pitts as a WR. I believe the salary structures are higher for WRs. At least it is when it comes to the franchise tag.
Yeah, Atlanta has $6m reasons (by the 2021 tag and 5th year numbers) to keep Pitts as a TE designation. The confusion just comes from some fantasy sites listing Colston as a TE as a rookie, which made him an insane value one year.
Pitts could challenge that designation down the road, but Jimmy Graham lost that challenge previously, and he played pretty similar role to Colston as basically a big slot.
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