The Cam Akers Wager Thread -- CLOSED (abloom wins)

[ArrylT]

Relative to the vast majority of other RBs in the league though, Akers has very limited competition for touches.

I’ll disagree with that. Henderson outperformed him last year when given the opportunity and from what I have seen of offseason chatter is far from conceding the position. Then there’s an X factor (pun intended) in Xavier Jones, who is a legitimate wild card in the situation. That kid is positively electric with the ball in his hands, and the limited preseason last year may have cloaked his opportunity to lay his talent on the table.

If both guys are given a competitive chance to get some workload, Akers’ share may not be as seemingly locked in as the offseason coachspeak says, and if we’ve seen anything from McVay, he’s perfectly willing to go with a hot hand.

I own shares of both Henderson and Jones and won’t be giving them up any time soon unless the Akers owner comes at me with an overpay, which is unlikely given the predominant mindset right now.

Personally I can see the price on Henderson when buying being a 2nd, so ergo I assume an overpay would be a 1st. However what would you deem an overpay for Xavier Jones (serious question)?

[Bronco Billy]

Relative to the vast majority of other RBs in the league though, Akers has very limited competition for touches.

I’ll disagree with that. Henderson outperformed him last year when given the opportunity and from what I have seen of offseason chatter is far from conceding the position. Then there’s an X factor (pun intended) in Xavier Jones, who is a legitimate wild card in the situation. That kid is positively electric with the ball in his hands, and the limited preseason last year may have cloaked his opportunity to lay his talent on the table.

If both guys are given a competitive chance to get some workload, Akers’ share may not be as seemingly locked in as the offseason coachspeak says, and if we’ve seen anything from McVay, he’s perfectly willing to go with a hot hand.

I own shares of both Henderson and Jones and won’t be giving them up any time soon unless the Akers owner comes at me with an overpay, which is unlikely given the predominant mindset right now.

Personally I can see the price on Henderson when buying being a 2nd, so ergo I assume an overpay would be a 1st. However what would you deem an overpay for Xavier Jones (serious question)?

I’d take a mid 2nd or better right now for Jones, and nothing less. I’ve watched the guy play and his skills look to be transferrable. His problem right now is opportunity. A full TC and PS will likely make him a more well known quantity if what I’m seeing is accurate. He’s literally a jump-off-the-page type guy.

[Bronco Billy]

Here’s a highlight reel of Jones:

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=SStiQvdWCGw

He’s got some serious crowd pleaser stuff with those incredible jump cuts and then the immediate acceleration out of them, but there’s stuff there that make a RB affectionado like me drool when I’m watching it: The way he drops his pads, gets great lean, and gets skinny in tight quarters - watch the goal line stuff - the deadleg he offers up at times, and the way his feet never stop moving even when he stops and changes directions or is waiting for the seam to open. He’s got long speed, lightning fast acceleration, vision, and patience. He can create when there’s nothing there. He’s ideal size for a NFL RB - he’s not the massive mauler type but he’s the gliding powerful gazelle type player. Thick thighs and skinny hips. I love these kinds of RBs.

[ArrylT]

Thanks - appreciate you taking the time. I figured it would be higher than a 3rd, but was not sure. And to be honest, while I personally may or may not (dont know enough about him to have a good opinion regardless) agree with the valuation specifically on Jones, at the same time I would quite agree that is a logical (imho) price to demand. I have no doubt that you, or any Jones owner, can easily get 3rds or 4ths for other players if you needed draft picks - so why sell low (for you) on a player whose outlook you're intrigued in seeing. To me this is no different than an owner who took James Robinson in the 4th/5th or waiver add last off-season. Not saying Jones is Robinson - just that that potential outcome, based on your belief in the players talent & metrics, makes it a logical (for me) if unlikely potential outcome.

[Sriracha]

Here’s a highlight reel of Jones:

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=SStiQvdWCGw

He’s got some serious crowd pleaser stuff with those incredible jump cuts and then the immediate acceleration out of them, but there’s stuff there that make a RB affectionado like me drool when I’m watching it: The way he drops his pads, gets great lean, and gets skinny in tight quarters - watch the goal line stuff - the deadleg he offers up at times, and the way his feet never stop moving even when he stops and changes directions or is waiting for the seam to open. He’s got long speed, lightning fast acceleration, vision, and patience. He can create when there’s nothing there. He’s ideal size for a NFL RB - he’s not the massive mauler type but he’s the gliding powerful gazelle type player. I love these kinds of RBs.

I'd wager he's not 5'11 208 based on the way he looks on film, but not a bad Hail Mary play to compete with Hendy for backup duties.

It's very easy to fall in love with these RBs based on a their highlight clips (just check out Damarea Crockett and Karan Higdon).. but the odds that he beats out 2 established RBs with serious draft capital invested in them is slim to none.

[Kurt G.O.A.T.]

akers owns the backfield and will be getting 20 touches a game.

[Rondalebaby]

Akers averaged 113 scrimmage yards over his last 7 games including playoffs, Henderson didn’t outperform him - the only thing stopping Akers is health this year.

Xavier Jones is waiver fodder.

[Ice]

Akers averaged 113 scrimmage yards over his last 7 games including playoffs, Henderson didn’t outperform him - the only thing stopping Akers is health this year.

Xavier Jones is waiver fodder.

And I think the curse of Mathew Stafford will carry on in Rams land!

[MEuRaH]

Akers averaged 113 scrimmage yards over his last 7 games including playoffs, Henderson didn’t outperform him - the only thing stopping Akers is health this year.

Xavier Jones is waiver fodder.

Bronco Billy is totally ruining my secret.

Xaver Jones was an undrafted rookie last year. Rookies were unable to showcase their stuff due to the preseason being eliminated, but all off-season long Aaron Donald praised Xavier Jones as a rookie who "stood out" and "made plays" during their scrimmages (LINK).

The Rams were too afraid to put Jones on the practice squad last year, so they added him to the active roster, one of only a handful of undrafted players to make the cut. (LINK). He played 178 snaps on special teams.

Jones is in not "waiver fodder". He was on the 53 man roster all year last year, and now there's even less competition in the backfield with Brown gone. Jones is now third on the depth chart, and it wouldn't surprise me at all to see him rise to 2nd by the end of camp. The downside is that Jones is already 25 in just his second year in the NFL, so there's not a lot of time to "get good" and steal carries from Akers.

Akers ranked 43rd amongst RBs last year in 0.5 ppr formats. Gus Edwards did better. Jerrick McKinnon did better. If the Rams don't make the playoffs, Akers becomes a "bust" in his first year.

[Bronco Billy]

Akers averaged 113 scrimmage yards over his last 7 games including playoffs, Henderson didn’t outperform him - the only thing stopping Akers is health this year.

Xavier Jones is waiver fodder.

Bronco Billy is totally ruining my secret.

You and I seem to see a lot of similar traits in RBs, even at times when we disagree on projections and outcomes. I’m not sure if that’s a good thing or if you should be worried…

[Rondalebaby]

Akers averaged 113 scrimmage yards over his last 7 games including playoffs, Henderson didn’t outperform him - the only thing stopping Akers is health this year.

Xavier Jones is waiver fodder.

Bronco Billy is totally ruining my secret.

Xaver Jones was an undrafted rookie last year. Rookies were unable to showcase their stuff due to the preseason being eliminated, but all off-season long Aaron Donald praised Xavier Jones as a rookie who "stood out" and "made plays" during their scrimmages (LINK).

The Rams were too afraid to put Jones on the practice squad last year, so they added him to the active roster, one of only a handful of undrafted players to make the cut. (LINK). He played 178 snaps on special teams.

Jones is in not "waiver fodder". He was on the 53 man roster all year last year, and now there's even less competition in the backfield with Brown gone. Jones is now third on the depth chart, and it wouldn't surprise me at all to see him rise to 2nd by the end of camp. The downside is that Jones is already 25 in just his second year in the NFL, so there's not a lot of time to "get good" and steal carries from Akers.

Akers ranked 43rd amongst RBs last year in 0.5 ppr formats. Gus Edwards did better. Jerrick McKinnon did better. If the Rams don't make the playoffs, Akers becomes a "bust" in his first year.

Counterpoint: He’s an UDFA who needed 5 years in college to produce a 1200 yard season, with a target share of 0%, 3.9%, 3.4% and 6.2% his final 4 years - and no athletic testing.

Not really fussed with how good his film apparently looks as a near 24 year old in college tbh.

[Rondalebaby]

Akers was drafted as a 20 year old with a 170+ yard game in the NFL at 21.

Perhaps he should have stayed in college for another 3 years and went undrafted, he’d probably get more respect from the film grinders lol

[CGW]

Akers averaged 113 scrimmage yards over his last 7 games including playoffs, Henderson didn’t outperform him - the only thing stopping Akers is health this year.

Xavier Jones is waiver fodder.

Bronco Billy is totally ruining my secret.

Xaver Jones was an undrafted rookie last year. Rookies were unable to showcase their stuff due to the preseason being eliminated, but all off-season long Aaron Donald praised Xavier Jones as a rookie who "stood out" and "made plays" during their scrimmages (LINK).

The Rams were too afraid to put Jones on the practice squad last year, so they added him to the active roster, one of only a handful of undrafted players to make the cut. (LINK). He played 178 snaps on special teams.

Jones is in not "waiver fodder". He was on the 53 man roster all year last year, and now there's even less competition in the backfield with Brown gone. Jones is now third on the depth chart, and it wouldn't surprise me at all to see him rise to 2nd by the end of camp. The downside is that Jones is already 25 in just his second year in the NFL, so there's not a lot of time to "get good" and steal carries from Akers.

Akers ranked 43rd amongst RBs last year in 0.5 ppr formats. Gus Edwards did better. Jerrick McKinnon did better. If the Rams don't make the playoffs, Akers becomes a "bust" in his first year.

This last part is spinning stats to meet your narrative. He started Five games. He largely wasn't even in the gameplan until week 10 due to injury and rookie development. He may not become a stud, but saying he sucks (comparing him to edwards and McKinnon) just because he didn't do anything for 10 weeks is silly. Not all RBs blow up week 1 of their rookie seasons. Some have to prove it before they are trusted.

[Sriracha]

Akers ranked 43rd amongst RBs last year in 0.5 ppr formats. Gus Edwards did better. Jerrick McKinnon did better. If the Rams don't make the playoffs, Akers becomes a "bust" in his first year.

This last part is spinning stats to meet your narrative. He started Five games. He largely wasn't even in the gameplan until week 10 due to injury and rookie development. He may not become a stud, but saying he sucks (comparing him to edwards and McKinnon) just because he didn't do anything for 10 weeks is silly. Not all RBs blow up week 1 of their rookie seasons. Some have to prove it before they are trusted.

[MEuRaH]

Akers ranked 43rd amongst RBs last year in 0.5 ppr formats. Gus Edwards did better. Jerrick McKinnon did better. If the Rams don't make the playoffs, Akers becomes a "bust" in his first year.

This last part is spinning stats to meet your narrative. He started Five games. He largely wasn't even in the gameplan until week 10 due to injury and rookie development. He may not become a stud, but saying he sucks (comparing him to edwards and McKinnon) just because he didn't do anything for 10 weeks is silly. Not all RBs blow up week 1 of their rookie seasons. Some have to prove it before they are trusted.

This isn't what I was trying to say at all. I wasn't saying "he sucks", I'm saying his label would be different had it not been for the playoff games. Not trying to spin anything here. If the Rams don't make the playoffs, Akers wouldn't have the chance to redeem this poor rookie season, and he's probably not going 10th in startups either. His perceived value is almost entirely based on his playoff performance, which almost didn't happen if he didn't get back to health.

I do think he's over-valued, but not a "bust" and not a bad player to own in fantasy either. He needs another year as a starter before we can start attaching labels to him.