Trey Sermon

[OhCruelestRanter]

A guy who runs like Eddie Lacy but weighs 35 lbs less than Eddie Lacy seems like a concerning prospect at 1.06.

Weird that I have to explain that.

[Ruggenater]

His ADP sits at the 1.08 currently and rising...

What's the highest he goes? 1.06 in a RB scarce league? Behind the big 3 and Chase and Pitts? Getting pretty pricey

He went at the equivalent of 1.06 if you take out the QBs in my superflex league draft. Ahead of all WRs except Chase.

[Bronco Billy]

A guy who runs like Eddie Lacy but weighs 35 lbs less than Eddie Lacy seems like a concerning prospect at 1.06.

Weird that I have to explain that.

There’s another guy that’s been nagging at me, with very similar style, traits, and measureables who put up strong college numbers and I finally remembered who it was -

PJ Hill.

[ArrylT]

I am not sure how apt a comparison to Eddie Lacy is. However Eddie Lacy did have 2 RB1 seasons. If you take 1 mid 1st round pick and get 2 RB1 seasons worth of production out of it - that seems like a positive not a negative.

Also according to 2 different sites - Eddie Lacy was not 250 going into the NFL he was 220-230 range. I believe the reason for his nickname was his off-field off-season habits of gaining unwanted weight. Trey Sermon has no (as of yet) similar concerns.

https://nflcombineresults.com/playerpage.php?i=10107

has him at 220

https://www.mockdraftable.com/player/eddie-lacy

Has him at 231

So thats 5-15 pounds versus 35.

I will say we have a lot more measurables out of Trey Sermon vs. Eddie Lacy

https://www.mockdraftable.com/player/trey-sermon

Also I dont think a 4.60 range is a bad result. It worked for James Robinson last year

https://www.mockdraftable.com/player/james-robinson

Personally I think it is important to note that a 40 time is not the be all / end all for RBs but only a part of the picture, to be taken into consideration along with the other information. I am pretty sure most DLF owners are already aware of this. A 4.6 40 time range speed likely just means that there will be less 50-80 yard runs - so maybe ding him in leagues which have bonus's for 40+ yard runs.

It does not mean he'll not get the chunk yard plays that are what NFL teams want & keep the drive going & keep an RB employed. His 10 yard split for example was one of the best in the 2021 class and the volume of 5--15 yard rushing gains is obviously much more frequent than those of 40+ yards.

Other comparables (whether they are fair or not) i've heard are Todd Gurley, DeMarco Murray & Kareem Hunt (4.62). In the end the interesting thing about all the comparables I see mentioned are that the guys he is compared to all found success, even, as like with Lacy, it was only for a few years. The purpose of comparables is not to say this is 100% what the player is going to be - but to project possible future outcomes. So to me, having comparisons like Lacy, Hunt & so forth are all good because it suggests the potential - which is what you want from your mid-late 1st. You dont want to be selecting guys who you think are the next David Cobb / Paul Perkins / John Kelly with those picks.

[Bronco Billy]

Other comparables (whether they are fair or not) i've heard are Todd Gurley, DeMarco Murray & Kareem Hunt (4.62).

I’m not sure how anyone watches tape of those 3 and Sermon and credibly sees any similarities.

Gurley was an incredible combination of power and long game speed. When he got to the second level and was even with opponents, the play was over with Gurley leaving tacklers in his wake. His power against SEC Ds back when the conference played the best D in the country was a thing of brutal beauty. He even took direct snaps and returned kicks. He was truly a phenom at Georgia.

DeMarco Murray was a slasher with long speed, a crazy good lateral jump cut, and long game speed. He could effectively use a spin move as well and string together multiple moves.

Hunt was an in your face N/S runner with incredible balance, carried his center of mass low, and was creative and imaginative at the second level. He also had better game speed than his timed speed, but I don’t think anyone would have called it great long speed.

Sermon doesn’t share much in common as a RB with any of those 3. Not sure why you spend so much time pondering Lacy’s weight.

You have to wonder how Sermon is going to be such a future RB1 in the NFL when he left Oklahoma after seeing he had lost his job to Rhamondre Stevenson and then spent 2/3rds of a season playing second fiddle to the extremely mediocre Master Teague. He made some hay the same way some other slow downhill RBs that I compared him to did - running through some gaping holes behind a dominant O-line who simply overpowered opponents.

Gurley and Murray. Sheesh. :Shakinghead:

[Dynasty DeLorean]

Murray ran a 4.41 and Gurley was probably around a 4.50 but he didn’t test because he was injured. From a profile standpoint, hunt is the only one similar. I should add Sermons lack of collegiate production also separates him from hunt as well, on paper at least

[Ice]

Hard to say what Sermon will be but if his last 3 games at Ohio State not including the championship which he got hurt are going to be the new norm then he will be a massive STUD.

Those stats are 70 carries 636 yards and 4 TD's. Not to mention he broke a 25 year old record held by Eddie George in the process is pretty good..... just sayin

Hating on this guy is a pretty bold move at this point given the 49'ers actually moved up to draft him over their stable of FA RB's currently on the roster.

In all honesty his 40 time means nothing; He has an exceptional burst which is one of two main things a RB needs to be successful at an NFL level. The other is vision to hit that hole.

The 49ers obviously believe he has both components or they would not have moved up to draft him.

[YouMightDieTryin]

How are we talking about this guy at 1.6 when he's not even guaranteed a starting gig? I know this is dynasty, but the juice doesn't seem worth the squeeze right now. I'm trying to think of past years that this has happened and what we've been stuck with by pushing a thin RB draft class up so high (due to desperation?). I suppose the alternatives around 1.6 are going to be Waddle/Smith/Bateman (1QB) so I think i'd rather take my chances with a Heisman winner or the guy that would've been a contender sans a freak accident. Nothing against Sermon, but I'm not buying at this price even if I'm in need of a RB. Take the value pick and run.

[ArrylT]

Other comparables (whether they are fair or not) i've heard are Todd Gurley, DeMarco Murray & Kareem Hunt (4.62).

I’m not sure how anyone watches tape of those 3 and Sermon and credibly sees any similarities.

Gurley was an incredible combination of power and long game speed. When he got to the second level and was even with opponents, the play was over with Gurley leaving tacklers in his wake. His power against SEC Ds back when the conference played the best D in the country was a thing of brutal beauty. He even took direct snaps and returned kicks. He was truly a phenom at Georgia.

DeMarco Murray was a slasher with long speed, a crazy good lateral jump cut, and long game speed. He could effectively use a spin move as well and string together multiple moves.

Hunt was an in your face N/S runner with incredible balance, carried his center of mass low, and was creative and imaginative at the second level. He also had better game speed than his timed speed, but I don’t think anyone would have called it great long speed.

Sermon doesn’t share much in common as a RB with any of those 3. Not sure why you spend so much time pondering Lacy’s weight.

You have to wonder how Sermon is going to be such a future RB1 in the NFL when he left Oklahoma after seeing he had lost his job to Rhamondre Stevenson and then spent 2/3rds of a season playing second fiddle to the extremely mediocre Master Teague. He made some hay the same way some other slow downhill RBs that I compared him to did - running through some gaping holes behind a dominant O-line who simply overpowered opponents.

Gurley and Murray. Sheesh. :Shakinghead:

Well I guess you'll need to take it up with the writers/analysts who made the comparisons.

Here is the Gurley comp:

https://primetimesportstalk.com/2021/04 ... ey-sermon/

And the DeMarco Murray:

https://walterfootball.com/scoutingrepo ... sermon.php

Regarding why he chose to transfer to Ohio State, I believe that (a) he had always had an interest in playing for Ohio State and (b) obviously it worked out for him since Master Teages achilles injury gave Sermon a better path to the NFL. Just like Sermon departure gave Stevenson (along with Brooks opting out?) the same. It certainly did work out for both since he got a Day 2 draft selection while Stevenson got a Day 3 selection. I guess Kennedy Brooks is back at Oklahoma for 2021?

I wasnt really pondering Lacys weight other than to note that entering the NFL it seems it was similar to Sermons - at least in terms of combine weigh in - this was in response to another poster who said Sermon reminded him of Lacy. I did note that if Sermon ends up having a Lacy like career then imho that is a pretty good result for a mid 1st selection. However I do hope that Sermon avoids going from 215-220 to 250ish like Lacy did.

[ArrylT]

How are we talking about this guy at 1.6 when he's not even guaranteed a starting gig? I know this is dynasty, but the juice doesn't seem worth the squeeze right now. I'm trying to think of past years that this has happened and what we've been stuck with by pushing a thin RB draft class up so high (due to desperation?). I suppose the alternatives around 1.6 are going to be Waddle/Smith/Bateman (1QB) so I think i'd rather take my chances with a Heisman winner or the guy that would've been a contender sans a freak accident. Nothing against Sermon, but I'm not buying at this price even if I'm in need of a RB. Take the value pick and run.

Well apart from Harris do any of the 2021 RBs have a guaranteed starting role? Last year many of the 2020 RBs did not have guaranteed starting gigs until things fell their way - Dobbins/Akers for example - Swift didnt get his first full look until Week 5. Heck, while we likely all expected Taylor to win the role against Mack - without Macks acl exactly when it would have happened we'll never know. So honestly I am not sure what guarantees most rookie RBs in any year have at this time of year - we can only but project and look at the depth chart.

For Sermon its not that difficult - especially with Wilson out 4-6 months. Just Mostert & Gallman really. That seems a lot more manageable to many I would assume than Marlon Mack & I am pretty sure at this time last year most had Mack left for dead - just like many have James Robinson doing the same versus Etienne.

[Horn1]

Trey Sermon = Gus Edwards pt2

The NFL isnt college. Currently Sermon lacks the speed/quickness to successfully hit the corner in the NFL. I'd bet my life, he's going to be used like Gus Edwards at Baltimore.

Sermon is a power North/South guy that's only going to getting bigger & gain weight as he gets older.

If he becomes the goaline back for SF, then expect big weeks followed by a few duds.

If anyone is expecting the 2nd coming of Zeke Elliott or Saquon Barkley, then you're going to be disappointed.

I'm seeing more Gus Edwards type useage.

[Jigga94]

How are we talking about this guy at 1.6 when he's not even guaranteed a starting gig? I know this is dynasty, but the juice doesn't seem worth the squeeze right now. I'm trying to think of past years that this has happened and what we've been stuck with by pushing a thin RB draft class up so high (due to desperation?). I suppose the alternatives around 1.6 are going to be Waddle/Smith/Bateman (1QB) so I think i'd rather take my chances with a Heisman winner or the guy that would've been a contender sans a freak accident. Nothing against Sermon, but I'm not buying at this price even if I'm in need of a RB. Take the value pick and run.

Happens every year due to RB scarcity. Once you are past the top tier and there aren't any stud pass catchers left, people start to reach for RB. Sometimes it pays off over taking a WR who may be capped at a WR2 ceiling. A good RB1 or RB2 season is very valuable in most leagues. Sermon would actually have to do that though and there's plenty of risks there.

Not saying Sermon mid 1st is what I'd be doing, but it's expected of people to reach for RB. I've accepted it and plan accordingly

[CGW]

How are we talking about this guy at 1.6 when he's not even guaranteed a starting gig? I know this is dynasty, but the juice doesn't seem worth the squeeze right now. I'm trying to think of past years that this has happened and what we've been stuck with by pushing a thin RB draft class up so high (due to desperation?). I suppose the alternatives around 1.6 are going to be Waddle/Smith/Bateman (1QB) so I think i'd rather take my chances with a Heisman winner or the guy that would've been a contender sans a freak accident. Nothing against Sermon, but I'm not buying at this price even if I'm in need of a RB. Take the value pick and run.

Well apart from Harris do any of the 2021 RBs have a guaranteed starting role? Last year many of the 2020 RBs did not have guaranteed starting gigs until things fell their way - Dobbins/Akers for example - Swift didnt get his first full look until Week 5. Heck, while we likely all expected Taylor to win the role against Mack - without Macks acl exactly when it would have happened we'll never know. So honestly I am not sure what guarantees most rookie RBs in any year have at this time of year - we can only but project and look at the depth chart.

For Sermon its not that difficult - especially with Wilson out 4-6 months. Just Mostert & Gallman really. That seems a lot more manageable to many I would assume than Marlon Mack & I am pretty sure at this time last year most had Mack left for dead - just like many have James Robinson doing the same versus Etienne.

Akers did actually start weeks 1 and 2, but was atrocious in game one and then broke his ribs in game two. It was only then he was not started until later in the season.

But you are right, often the encumbant is giving the starts early until the rooks take over.

[Ice]

How are we talking about this guy at 1.6 when he's not even guaranteed a starting gig? I know this is dynasty, but the juice doesn't seem worth the squeeze right now. I'm trying to think of past years that this has happened and what we've been stuck with by pushing a thin RB draft class up so high (due to desperation?). I suppose the alternatives around 1.6 are going to be Waddle/Smith/Bateman (1QB) so I think i'd rather take my chances with a Heisman winner or the guy that would've been a contender sans a freak accident. Nothing against Sermon, but I'm not buying at this price even if I'm in need of a RB. Take the value pick and run.

Eddie George
@EddieGeorge2727
·
Dec 19, 2020
@treyera
Congratulations on breaking the single-game rushing record!! Eat, young man, Eat!!!

Sounds like he is doing just that!

[Rondalebaby]

Hard to say what Sermon will be but if his last 3 games at Ohio State not including the championship which he got hurt are going to be the new norm then he will be a massive STUD.

Those stats are 70 carries 636 yards and 4 TD's. Not to mention he broke a 25 year old record held by Eddie George in the process is pretty good..... just sayin

Hating on this guy is a pretty bold move at this point given the 49'ers actually moved up to draft him over their stable of FA RB's currently on the roster.

In all honesty his 40 time means nothing; He has an exceptional burst which is one of two main things a RB needs to be successful at an NFL level. The other is vision to hit that hole.

The 49ers obviously believe he has both components or they would not have moved up to draft him.

Mans was a career JAG who split carries with bums like Kennedy Brooks and Master Teague the other 40+ games of his career, we already know who he is