Dynasty League Football Forum

slaughterrt wrote: ↑Sat May 01, 2021 6:16 pm I’m gonna be linking this thread to ALLLLL my QB premium leagues and hopefully the guy with the 1.01 will fall for this joke.

We should make one for Wilson/Fields over Lawrence as well so he can fall to 1.03

For Superflex/QB Premium leagues, I agree. Lawrence is the safe, top pick. For most 1 QB leagues, I would much rather draft Fields or Lance over Lawrence for the potential upside. I don't necessarily need a QB that will be a borderline QB1. I want a QB that could be top 5 and make a difference on my roster.

mgscott wrote: ↑Sat May 01, 2021 7:01 pm For Superflex/QB Premium leagues, I agree. Lawrence is the safe, top pick. For most 1 QB leagues, I would much rather draft Fields or Lance over Lawrence for the potential upside. I don't necessarily need a QB that will be a borderline QB1. I want a QB that could be top 5 and make a difference on my roster.

I don’t necessarily agree that Lawrence has lower upside.

All 3 have sky high ceilings. Lawrence is the safest.

If I’m sitting there with 1.01, whether I earned the pick or acquired the pick, I’m looking for the best combination of upside and risk mitigation. That is clearly Lawrence, IMO. Could Lance have similar, or even potentially greater upside? Sure. However, I think any potentially higher upside is both very unlikely and very nominal, not to mention that it comes with a significantly higher bust risk than Lawrence.

To answer the subject question, absolutely not!

Sriracha wrote: ↑Sat May 01, 2021 8:22 pm

mgscott wrote: ↑Sat May 01, 2021 7:01 pm For Superflex/QB Premium leagues, I agree. Lawrence is the safe, top pick. For most 1 QB leagues, I would much rather draft Fields or Lance over Lawrence for the potential upside. I don't necessarily need a QB that will be a borderline QB1. I want a QB that could be top 5 and make a difference on my roster.

I don’t necessarily agree that Lawrence has lower upside.

All 3 have sky high ceilings. Lawrence is the safest.

That's fair. I just don't agree with Lawrence's ceiling.

Sriracha wrote: ↑Sat May 01, 2021 8:22 pm

mgscott wrote: ↑Sat May 01, 2021 7:01 pm For Superflex/QB Premium leagues, I agree. Lawrence is the safe, top pick. For most 1 QB leagues, I would much rather draft Fields or Lance over Lawrence for the potential upside. I don't necessarily need a QB that will be a borderline QB1. I want a QB that could be top 5 and make a difference on my roster.

I don’t necessarily agree that Lawrence has lower upside.

All 3 have sky high ceilings. Lawrence is the safest.

You will have to draft Lawrence in the first round of a 1QB league which is stupid. I’d rather grab somebody else in the 2nd round and call it good.

My BallZach Ertz wrote: ↑Sun May 02, 2021 6:05 am

Sriracha wrote: ↑Sat May 01, 2021 8:22 pm

mgscott wrote: ↑Sat May 01, 2021 7:01 pm For Superflex/QB Premium leagues, I agree. Lawrence is the safe, top pick. For most 1 QB leagues, I would much rather draft Fields or Lance over Lawrence for the potential upside. I don't necessarily need a QB that will be a borderline QB1. I want a QB that could be top 5 and make a difference on my roster.

I don’t necessarily agree that Lawrence has lower upside.

All 3 have sky high ceilings. Lawrence is the safest.

You will have to draft Lawrence in the first round of a 1QB league which is stupid. I’d rather grab somebody else in the 2nd round and call it good.

See this is an argument I can agree with. Hard to take a qb over guys like Moore, Moore, waddle etc. Now in that mid or late 2nd after the drop off to guys like Michael Carter, dyami brown etc I like the value.

But heads up I can't see the case for Lance

My BallZach Ertz wrote: ↑Sun May 02, 2021 6:05 am

Sriracha wrote: ↑Sat May 01, 2021 8:22 pm

mgscott wrote: ↑Sat May 01, 2021 7:01 pm For Superflex/QB Premium leagues, I agree. Lawrence is the safe, top pick. For most 1 QB leagues, I would much rather draft Fields or Lance over Lawrence for the potential upside. I don't necessarily need a QB that will be a borderline QB1. I want a QB that could be top 5 and make a difference on my roster.

I don’t necessarily agree that Lawrence has lower upside.

All 3 have sky high ceilings. Lawrence is the safest.

You will have to draft Lawrence in the first round of a 1QB league which is stupid. I’d rather grab somebody else in the 2nd round and call it good.

I definitely see the value in that for 1 QB, just take whichever QB falls to me in the 2nd after all the WR are gone. But saying you'd draft one of the other QB over Lawrence would then mean you also value them as a late 1st in that format

mgscott wrote: ↑Sat May 01, 2021 8:39 pm

Sriracha wrote: ↑Sat May 01, 2021 8:22 pm

mgscott wrote: ↑Sat May 01, 2021 7:01 pm For Superflex/QB Premium leagues, I agree. Lawrence is the safe, top pick. For most 1 QB leagues, I would much rather draft Fields or Lance over Lawrence for the potential upside. I don't necessarily need a QB that will be a borderline QB1. I want a QB that could be top 5 and make a difference on my roster.

I don’t necessarily agree that Lawrence has lower upside.

All 3 have sky high ceilings. Lawrence is the safest.

That's fair. I just don't agree with Lawrence's ceiling.

I like this thought process in a 1 QB league, where the rushing upside is typically key to getting a fantasy difference maker. However, we've seen that the top tier passers can also end up as top 5 QBs, think Luck, Rodgers and Mahomes. So if Lawrence really is an Andrew Luck level passing prospect (which I agree with the consensus that he appears to be) then I'm not really worried about a lack of upside. Also I acknowledge that Lawrence does have some rushing chops.

What I'd add is that in a 1 QB league, barring a specific circumstance of my roster makeup, I would be happier investing less capital on Lance (hopefully mid to late 2nd) as opposed to the late first I expect Lawrence to cost in most 1 QB leagues.

My BallZach Ertz wrote: ↑Sun May 02, 2021 6:05 am

Sriracha wrote: ↑Sat May 01, 2021 8:22 pm

mgscott wrote: ↑Sat May 01, 2021 7:01 pm For Superflex/QB Premium leagues, I agree. Lawrence is the safe, top pick. For most 1 QB leagues, I would much rather draft Fields or Lance over Lawrence for the potential upside. I don't necessarily need a QB that will be a borderline QB1. I want a QB that could be top 5 and make a difference on my roster.

I don’t necessarily agree that Lawrence has lower upside.

All 3 have sky high ceilings. Lawrence is the safest.

You will have to draft Lawrence in the first round of a 1QB league which is stupid. I’d rather grab somebody else in the 2nd round and call it good.

I don’t understand this statement at all. A successful FF owner looks to optimize point differential at each starting position, or at a minimum to minimize adverse point differential at one position while maximizing at all others.

I don’t know about your leagues but in ours RB and QB values (difference between the best starters and the baseline - which many set as worst starters, I set it at half the number of required starters lower for each position to account for using committees at positions and to account for injuries) has remained pretty constant even though QB scoring has risen significantly while RB scoring has dropped slightly. TE value has also been fairly constant but WR value has dropped to the point where WRs carry the least value of any starting position.

We’ve seen a tremendous influx of talent at WR lately, which I believe accounts for the main cause of the reduction in WR value. There are just more WRs capable of scoring which has diluted the position.

So if you are faced with drafting a Lawrence or Fields at say 1.10 or drafting one of the Moores and given all other circumstances are relatively equal, you are gambling that the Moores will become regular FF WR1s, since it is reasonable that both QBs will end up being at least lower end QB1s. If the Moores/Toney or other WRs like them in this draft end up being regular FF WR2s - which given the size of the accomplished WR pool right now is a pretty tall order in and of itself - they would carry less value than backend QB1s that Lawrence and Fields look to be safe to project.

It’s almost crazy to expect this year’s WR4 to WR7 to become FF WR1s given how many outstanding WRs there are in the league right now. You’re essentially expecting the 4 to 7 best WRs to fill into the top 12-15 WRs in the entire league. If they instead become WR2s they fall into a large pool where we’ll see players drop in and out into WR3 and maybe even WR4 territory given how many WRs score within a relatively small differential of those parameters. They fall into what are FF replaceable levels, much like the lowest end starting QBs.

And speaking of some kind of crazy going on, what is going on with so many expecting more FF wise out of Lance than Lawrence or Fields? It seems like many have caught some kind of delusional expectations based upon one year of Lamar Jackson allegedly changing the QB landscape entirely. How did Jackson do as a FF QB last year? Is he going to have the FF sustained scoring capability that proven stud passers like Rodgers, Brees, and Mahomes et al have?

A QB’s primary job in the NFL is to distribute the ball in more optimized conditions post-snap to specialists who have a superior skill set at their specialty - the RBs, WRs, and some TEs. The elite QBs listed above have superb physical/mental abilities that allow their specialists to do the dirty work once the QB gets them the football in a position to do more with it after delivery.

Look at Lawrence’s and Fields’ body of work vs much tougher competition over a much larger resume than what Lance has done in much more limited opportunities against far more inferior opponents. If Lance were on a level with Lawrence and Fields, he should have overtly dominated opposing Ds much moreso than either of those guys. He should have been a man amongst boys, so to speak, in distributing the football and his passing numbers should have been wildly better than Lawrence’s or Fields’ - which they were not.

I’m pulling for Lance. I want to see him succeed because the NFL needs as many high quality QBs as it can get. But I don’t get how people don’t see Lance as the biggest boom/bust risk at the position by a wide margin over the other first round QBs this year. His ability to perform his most important task - distribute the football - at the NFL level is easily the one most in question of those top 5. Sure, he’s got legs that will get him rushing yardage, but like Jackson last year or guys like RGlll before, using those guys for running the football as a primary way of creating FF value is both more variable and not consistently sustainable both year to year and in career longevity at an elite level.

Both Lawrence and Fields look to have superior distribution skill sets that give them better chances to reach into top 6-8 FF levels on a more regular basis and for a longer period. And that’s the criteria that FFers should be looking for - a plug and play QB for the next dozen seasons or more. Then you have all those years to use more draft picks to fill out your skill positions with superior scorers.

Do your leagues not count QB rushing yards or something?

Seems like every year this scenario comes up. I think it has something to do with people trying to pick holes in the #1 prospect at their position, or trying too hard to be clever. I bet none of these “experts” even had Lance as the #2 QB behind Lawrence before the draft. Now he goes to 9ers and he leapfrogs Lawrence? If I’ve got 1.02 in a SF, I’m praying the 1.01 falls prey to that idea. Because I’m not.

Jigga94 wrote: ↑Sun May 02, 2021 7:00 am

My BallZach Ertz wrote: ↑Sun May 02, 2021 6:05 am

Sriracha wrote: ↑Sat May 01, 2021 8:22 pm

I don’t necessarily agree that Lawrence has lower upside.

All 3 have sky high ceilings. Lawrence is the safest.

You will have to draft Lawrence in the first round of a 1QB league which is stupid. I’d rather grab somebody else in the 2nd round and call it good.

I definitely see the value in that for 1 QB, just take whichever QB falls to me in the 2nd after all the WR are gone. But saying you'd draft one of the other QB over Lawrence would then mean you also value them as a late 1st in that format

Or ir could mean you don't value any of them as being worth a 1st and are happy to have someone else draft Lawrence late first and let other players drop.

My BallZach Ertz wrote: ↑Sun May 02, 2021 6:05 am

Sriracha wrote: ↑Sat May 01, 2021 8:22 pm

mgscott wrote: ↑Sat May 01, 2021 7:01 pm For Superflex/QB Premium leagues, I agree. Lawrence is the safe, top pick. For most 1 QB leagues, I would much rather draft Fields or Lance over Lawrence for the potential upside. I don't necessarily need a QB that will be a borderline QB1. I want a QB that could be top 5 and make a difference on my roster.

I don’t necessarily agree that Lawrence has lower upside.

All 3 have sky high ceilings. Lawrence is the safest.

You will have to draft Lawrence in the first round of a 1QB league which is stupid. I’d rather grab somebody else in the 2nd round and call it good.

No it isn't.
Even in QB1 it is golden to have a steady QB that you can start every week. Absolutely best if it can be a top 5 QB, which is what Lawrence is hyped to be. Set it and forget it for 10 years, and let someone else have the headache of trying to guess the best QB for the week of a bunch of medicore 'streamable' players.

And you most likely have a extra roster spot for the development players.