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Re: What players on your team(s) are you scared will have their values shot by the draft?

Posted: Wed Apr 14, 2021 7:41 pm
by RB6
Jigga94 wrote: Wed Apr 14, 2021 5:15 pm
dlf_mikeh wrote: Wed Apr 14, 2021 4:47 pm
Jigga94 wrote: Wed Apr 14, 2021 3:07 pm Basically everyone in my team 1 sig except for JT and Dillon, who has already been shot.

Gaskin, Mostert, Snell/McFarland all seem likely to be replaced
Whoa whoa whoa... does your league legit have a 10 round rookie draft?
I must have missed the point of this thread? Or maybe I'm just confused on your question... Team 1 is mostly a larger keeper league, and it is 10 rounds with FA, but I'm not sure that was your specific question haha

I'm just saying there are a lot of RB that will lose value after the NFL draft as usual. I have little hope for any of mine to maintain/gain value. If someone does, then great lol but I'm doubting it.

I'm basically agreeing with Cameron's post. RB are suspect to lose their job at any time. There are lots of fringe guys at other positions, but WR is less about opportunity and more about talent.
He’s saying a 10 round rookie draft would be crazy because there’s not enough rookies to justify that many rounds.

Re: What players on your team(s) are you scared will have their values shot by the draft?

Posted: Thu Apr 15, 2021 1:08 am
by thebadferret
I fear for my Hurst. Will be going for Pitts and having them both on the Falcons would suck.
Also I' worries about Boyd and Higgins for the case that the Bengals really draft Chase.

Re: What players on your team(s) are you scared will have their values shot by the draft?

Posted: Thu Apr 15, 2021 8:18 am
by ArrylT
I wouldnt worry too much about Hurst (or Hockenson) in regards to Pitts - I dont think there has ever been a case of a team drafting 2 1st round TEs* so close together. Even at the WR position it is like a 10% chance, based on draft history, that a 1st Rd WR will see another 1st round WR added.

Hurst is still under his rookie contract - and has another year before they even need to decide on the 5th year. Obviously teams can and will always throw surprises but it seems likely that the Falcons either move off the 4th for draft capital, or take QB or Sewell or WR before going TE.

Doing so would be completely unprecedented. Apart from being the 1st team to take a 1st round TE while another 1st round TE was on their rookie contract, they'd be taking a TE at the highest draft spot ever (Ditka at 5 is the current record). Vernon Davis & Winslow Jr at 6 each is the highest a TE has been drafted in over 30 years.

Certainly wont say it is impossible - just that doing so would completely be out of character for NFL teams, and would probably make the 2021 draft very chaotic & interesting.

If they do take Pitts, I would feel sorry for Hurst - I mean the whole reason he wanted out of Baltimore was because he felt under-utilized with Andrews being so successful - and now he has Julio, Ridley & Pitts? But I think this is still a remote likelyhood.

I do think it is quite possible the Falcons add a TE in Day 2.

* - Of course yes Hurst was traded

Re: What players on your team(s) are you scared will have their values shot by the draft?

Posted: Thu Apr 15, 2021 10:07 am
by Blueboy
ArrylT wrote: Thu Apr 15, 2021 8:18 am I wouldnt worry too much about Hurst (or Hockenson) in regards to Pitts - I dont think there has ever been a case of a team drafting 2 1st round TEs* so close together. Even at the WR position it is like a 10% chance, based on draft history, that a 1st Rd WR will see another 1st round WR added.
Plus for Hockenson in particular, would his snap count/target share even go down? Looking at that WR corps, even projecting both Pitts and a rookie WR as high as 41 overall, that looks like a team that would barely ever leave 12 personnel.

Basically even with Pitts and a highly drafted rookie, it's easy to envision Hock repeating on 100 targets imo. As the roster stands pre-draft he looks set for something more like 130.

Re: What players on your team(s) are you scared will have their values shot by the draft?

Posted: Thu Apr 15, 2021 10:09 am
by CL3VELANDBR0WNS
Luckily I think there are only 2 RBs that can really squash their competition no matter where they land. As for WR, I own Hardman in several places and I think it's over for him already. If the Chiefs draft a WR, my league mates will think it's over for him too. Then I'm stuck.

Re: What players on your team(s) are you scared will have their values shot by the draft?

Posted: Thu Apr 15, 2021 10:47 am
by jordanzs
Not like I own them anywhere, but I would add in Singletary & Moss if I owned them. The Bills seem like a team that needs a better RB.

Re: What players on your team(s) are you scared will have their values shot by the draft?

Posted: Thu Apr 15, 2021 11:07 am
by MEuRaH
Jigga94 wrote: Wed Apr 14, 2021 5:15 pm
dlf_mikeh wrote: Wed Apr 14, 2021 4:47 pm
Jigga94 wrote: Wed Apr 14, 2021 3:07 pm Basically everyone in my team 1 sig except for JT and Dillon, who has already been shot.

Gaskin, Mostert, Snell/McFarland all seem likely to be replaced
Whoa whoa whoa... does your league legit have a 10 round rookie draft?
I must have missed the point of this thread? Or maybe I'm just confused on your question... Team 1 is mostly a larger keeper league, and it is 10 rounds with FA, but I'm not sure that was your specific question haha
I was just reading your sig and my eyes almost popped out of my head seeing what I thought was rounds 6, 7, 8, 9, and 10 in there. I just had to know. :P

Re: What players on your team(s) are you scared will have their values shot by the draft?

Posted: Thu Apr 15, 2021 11:51 am
by OhCruelestRanter
I’m seeing mostly players whose value is already tanked because the community currently assumes the draft will hurt them. Benny Snell is already priced as though he’s Najee Harris’ backup. I doubt his value goes down. Tevin Coleman is also clearly priced like a backup; I doubt his value changes noticeably if NYJ doesn’t take anybody.

Moss and Gaskin have been mentioned, and the risk is definitely part of the price, but I do think some owners are assuming they have a chance to start next year. Mike Davis belongs in this group as well.

The guys I worry about taking huge hits are the players whose value is tied to basically being the unquestioned starter on a nearly empty depth chart- CEH and Robinson come to mind. I think it’s low likelihood that either gets serious competition, but I also think that you can wait until after the draft to be safe and their value won’t go up if their teams don’t take anybody.

Re: What players on your team(s) are you scared will have their values shot by the draft?

Posted: Thu Apr 15, 2021 12:21 pm
by StripesOfKC
OhCruelestRanter wrote: Thu Apr 15, 2021 11:51 am I’m seeing mostly players whose value is already tanked because the community currently assumes the draft will hurt them. Benny Snell is already priced as though he’s Najee Harris’ backup. I doubt his value goes down. Tevin Coleman is also clearly priced like a backup; I doubt his value changes noticeably if NYJ doesn’t take anybody.

Moss and Gaskin have been mentioned, and the risk is definitely part of the price, but I do think some owners are assuming they have a chance to start next year. Mike Davis belongs in this group as well.

The guys I worry about taking huge hits are the players whose value is tied to basically being the unquestioned starter on a nearly empty depth chart- CEH and Robinson come to mind. I think it’s low likelihood that either gets serious competition, but I also think that you can wait until after the draft to be safe and their value won’t go up if their teams don’t take anybody.
Robinson is a good one especially with a new offensive system coming with Urban but as a Chiefs fan (maybe biased) we have actual legitmate needs and pressing ones (OT, EDGE, WR, CB, LB, C) that make it really hard to draft for a luxury RB like last year

Also on guys like Coleman and Gaskin they are priced as backups and unlikely to go down but if they somehow do not draft an RB before round 4 I imagine it would go up quite a bit. Not high still but at least priced as one year flex rentals instead of backups. Maybe not though

Re: What players on your team(s) are you scared will have their values shot by the draft?

Posted: Thu Apr 15, 2021 12:58 pm
by OhCruelestRanter
Gaskin is priced right now at RB34. That reflects the possibility that Miami doesn’t take anybody. He might see a small bump if they don’t, but how much do you think his stock actually rises? If you can get a return that’s commensurate with his current ADP, I would just take it.

Tevin Coleman is priced at RB57, Benny Snell at RB71. That’s a backup price.

The thing is, there are so few impactful RBs in this class, that some of these RBs are going to have to see a value bump.

Re: What players on your team(s) are you scared will have their values shot by the draft?

Posted: Thu Apr 15, 2021 1:28 pm
by StripesOfKC
OhCruelestRanter wrote: Thu Apr 15, 2021 12:58 pm Gaskin is priced right now at RB34. That reflects the possibility that Miami doesn’t take anybody. He might see a small bump if they don’t, but how much do you think his stock actually rises? If you can get a return that’s commensurate with his current ADP, I would just take it.

Tevin Coleman is priced at RB57, Benny Snell at RB71. That’s a backup price.

The thing is, there are so few impactful RBs in this class, that some of these RBs are going to have to see a value bump.
I didn't realize Gaskin was priced that highly. In that case I doubt he sees a huge spike but I see him passing some middling types like Fournette, Mostert, Rojo, Edmonds and maybe even Gordon on age alone and I really doubt Chuba gets the draft capital to justify his current valuation either.

Agreed on Coleman and Snell but the signals out of Pittsburgh at least seem very heavily pointed to RB with the FO rumored to love Najee and Etienne

Jets are a little interesting though. They have so many holes (iOLx2, CB, LB, TE, maybe WR or EDGE too) that I can see RB getting passed over and remind me of the Dolphins situation last year where everyone was mocking them Swift or Taylor only for them to get sniped for Dobbins and end up taking no one

I doubt Coleman on the Jets is some really good piece or anything but he's my bet of guys to see a bit of bump based on RBs running out by the time the team wants one (why I've grabbed him where I could)

Only issue is that the Jets are stocked with draft picks

Other one could be Moss (though he isn't priced as a backup yet) because 3 years of day 2 capital on RBs looks bad for a GM--then again the Bills are a complete team without many holes so it's certainly possible

Re: What players on your team(s) are you scared will have their values shot by the draft?

Posted: Thu Apr 15, 2021 2:57 pm
by Forza_Azzurri
I am worried about the Fins taking Pitts & killing Gesicki ... however, I also see a scenario where they both thrive in the same offense.

Re: What players on your team(s) are you scared will have their values shot by the draft?

Posted: Thu Apr 15, 2021 9:21 pm
by Vcize
OhCruelestRanter wrote: Thu Apr 15, 2021 11:51 am I’m seeing mostly players whose value is already tanked because the community currently assumes the draft will hurt them. Benny Snell is already priced as though he’s Najee Harris’ backup. I doubt his value goes down. Tevin Coleman is also clearly priced like a backup; I doubt his value changes noticeably if NYJ doesn’t take anybody.

Moss and Gaskin have been mentioned, and the risk is definitely part of the price, but I do think some owners are assuming they have a chance to start next year. Mike Davis belongs in this group as well.

The guys I worry about taking huge hits are the players whose value is tied to basically being the unquestioned starter on a nearly empty depth chart- CEH and Robinson come to mind. I think it’s low likelihood that either gets serious competition, but I also think that you can wait until after the draft to be safe and their value won’t go up if their teams don’t take anybody.
I came here to say exactly this. Every year there are a couple of big names guys drafted to teams that we thought already had a secure starter who gets dinged. Michael Gallup last year comes to mind.

Re: What players on your team(s) are you scared will have their values shot by the draft?

Posted: Fri Apr 16, 2021 1:50 am
by Kurt G.O.A.T.
OhCruelestRanter wrote: Thu Apr 15, 2021 12:58 pm Gaskin is priced right now at RB34. That reflects the possibility that Miami doesn’t take anybody. He might see a small bump if they don’t, but how much do you think his stock actually rises? If you can get a return that’s commensurate with his current ADP, I would just take it.

Tevin Coleman is priced at RB57, Benny Snell at RB71. That’s a backup price.

The thing is, there are so few impactful RBs in this class, that some of these RBs are going to have to see a value bump.
Gaskin put up some great numbers last season for the phins. As did Salvon Ahmed. If they draft a rb early he should be targeted. Although that's what many said about ceh last season but he couldn't come close to D William's output.

If the phins don't pick a rb early I don't think rb34 is high enough for Gaskin.

Re: What players on your team(s) are you scared will have their values shot by the draft?

Posted: Fri Apr 16, 2021 2:00 am
by Pullo Vision
Along the lines of highly valued guys like JRob/CEH who could see value hits-
Swift- mizelle rank as 8th RB, 13th overall. Depth chart weak enough that more bodies could/should be added.
DJ Moore- 23rd overall, 9th WR. CMC back, could see draft replacement for Samuel, even if just a depth option.
Mixon- another perceived bellcow back, but they cut Bernard and Bengals can put non-elite draft capital into RB (like Gainwell/M Carter) and hit Mixon's touch floor and/or ceiling
Higgins (13th WR) and Boyd (35th)- Team has starting wideout and TE need. Top tier options Chase/Pitts would be concerns, as well non first rounders like E/R Moore.