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https://forum.dynastyleaguefootball.com/viewtopic.php?t=213973
Switching offensive systems after year one is generally not good for the long term development of a quarterback. I also think Gase isn’t anything special in terms of getting the most out of guys. Getting big seasons from Peyton Manning is just about getting out of the way. That said, he has the tools, and he has some solid weapons. If the picks are for this year, I think that’s a reasonable deal.Shankopotamus wrote: ↑Sat Jul 06, 2019 12:21 pm I recently acquired him, DJ Moore, and 2.04 for my 1.02 and 1.09.
What's the concensus on him after his rookie season?
As a guy who clearly has a little more invested here than the rest of us, what are your thoughts on bringing in Gase and his impact on the offense and team as a whole?FiremanEd wrote: ↑Sat Jul 06, 2019 3:52 pm I thought his rookie season was very encouraging. He showed a lot of poise, skill, and the ability to make accurate passes while on the move. He had some rough patches, but I think when assessing a rookie you need to be looking for the qualities he possesses while taking into consideration that he's still a rookie learning the speed of the NFL game. He was thrown in from the get go and needed to learn on the fly as a 21 year old. IMO he showed well. The injury he suffered that caused him to miss some games may have been a good thing, as it gave him a chance to have experience, and then assess from the sideline, and go back in a few games later. He wasn't a world beater after that, but he cut down on the turnovers, which hopefully is simply the learning curve process that a rookie QB with talent goes through. Keep in mind that he did much of this while relying on Robby Anderson, a rookie TE, and not much else, including an OL that was not much to speak of. It wasn't a great overall environment for a guy to light the world on fire.
I know people don't like the fact that it is a new offense, but it's likely still an improvement, and the talent around him has improved significantly. Osemele is an upgrade. Hernodon is a year older. Crowder is a reliable veteran. Enunwa is healthy. Bell is a workhorse teams need to respect. There is a lot of improvement here. I see no reason he can't be a high end QB2 given what he showed, and the potential for more given the Jets have short-term cap space while he's on his rookie deal. I feel good about his long-term outlook as well. Sure things can happen that change a players trajectory and outlook (i.e. Winston, Mariota, Carr, etc.), but he has shown me he has the maturity, arm talent, and mobility to make it in the league. He also was 21 years old and was the youngest starting QB in some time if I recall.
Overall, I don't know if he has elite upside, but I feel good about him as a high QB2 for the long-term.
I'm not going to pretend I have any more valuable insights than others here. I watched him at Denver, but it's tough to say what was him and what was Peyton. I saw my some Miami games, and IMO they overachieved in their W/L record, but I don't know to what degree he helped or hindered Tannehill compared to what he could have been. Tanny did have some respectable statistical seasons. What all of this will mean terms of Darnold's development is anyone's guess. I wasn't thrilled with the Gase hire...but that doesn't mean he will be Darnold's downfall. I have to go based on what I saw out of Darnold as a 21 year old rookie, take into consideration what his supporting cast was, and then project improvement based on his maturity, drive, and organizational improvements. Could he be another Jameis (with the TO concerns), perhaps...but I feel better about him than I did Jameis. Could just be that I saw more and am more invested in Darnold though...and that Jameis unfortuntely hasn't seemed to develop on the mental side like many hoped. Darnold to me has a higher maturity level though, which goes a long way in addressing those mental game concerns.ericanadian wrote: ↑Sat Jul 06, 2019 4:03 pmAs a guy who clearly has a little more invested here than the rest of us, what are your thoughts on bringing in Gase and his impact on the offense and team as a whole?FiremanEd wrote: ↑Sat Jul 06, 2019 3:52 pm I thought his rookie season was very encouraging. He showed a lot of poise, skill, and the ability to make accurate passes while on the move. He had some rough patches, but I think when assessing a rookie you need to be looking for the qualities he possesses while taking into consideration that he's still a rookie learning the speed of the NFL game. He was thrown in from the get go and needed to learn on the fly as a 21 year old. IMO he showed well. The injury he suffered that caused him to miss some games may have been a good thing, as it gave him a chance to have experience, and then assess from the sideline, and go back in a few games later. He wasn't a world beater after that, but he cut down on the turnovers, which hopefully is simply the learning curve process that a rookie QB with talent goes through. Keep in mind that he did much of this while relying on Robby Anderson, a rookie TE, and not much else, including an OL that was not much to speak of. It wasn't a great overall environment for a guy to light the world on fire.
I know people don't like the fact that it is a new offense, but it's likely still an improvement, and the talent around him has improved significantly. Osemele is an upgrade. Hernodon is a year older. Crowder is a reliable veteran. Enunwa is healthy. Bell is a workhorse teams need to respect. There is a lot of improvement here. I see no reason he can't be a high end QB2 given what he showed, and the potential for more given the Jets have short-term cap space while he's on his rookie deal. I feel good about his long-term outlook as well. Sure things can happen that change a players trajectory and outlook (i.e. Winston, Mariota, Carr, etc.), but he has shown me he has the maturity, arm talent, and mobility to make it in the league. He also was 21 years old and was the youngest starting QB in some time if I recall.
Overall, I don't know if he has elite upside, but I feel good about him as a high QB2 for the long-term.
i dont think its fair at all to EXPECT the gaudy numbers you think of. those number would make him a top 10 qb going by last years numbers while having one of the worst wr groups in the nfl. the numbers you quote are all way too high to expect from him imo and his ints will undoubtedly be more than just 10.FantasyDumDum wrote: ↑Sat Jul 06, 2019 4:38 pm Darnold, as a rookie in 13 games last year, having only just turned 21 years old, with a very lackluster supporting cast and scheme:
239/414, 57.7%, 2865y, 17 TD, 15 Int, 138y rushing, 1 TD.
Extrapolated to 16 games that is:
3500+y, 21 TD, 18.4 Int, 170y rushing, 1.2 TD.
I think it’s fair to expect Darnold to be in the 550 attempts, 4000y, 30TD, 10 Int, 200y rushing, 2 TD area starting likely in 2020 while building towards that eventuality this year. That would make him a mid QB2 this year and low QB1 going forward next year, with partially high upside due to his talent and age and partially low upside because of his situation under Gase for the time being.
I’m buying.
Next year Darnold will have the following changes, all positive:knotts4372 wrote: ↑Sun Jul 07, 2019 1:10 ami dont think its fair at all to EXPECT the gaudy numbers you think of. those number would make him a top 10 qb going by last years numbers while having one of the worst wr groups in the nfl. the numbers you quote are all way too high to expect from him imo and his ints will undoubtedly be more than just 10.FantasyDumDum wrote: ↑Sat Jul 06, 2019 4:38 pm Darnold, as a rookie in 13 games last year, having only just turned 21 years old, with a very lackluster supporting cast and scheme:
239/414, 57.7%, 2865y, 17 TD, 15 Int, 138y rushing, 1 TD.
Extrapolated to 16 games that is:
3500+y, 21 TD, 18.4 Int, 170y rushing, 1.2 TD.
I think it’s fair to expect Darnold to be in the 550 attempts, 4000y, 30TD, 10 Int, 200y rushing, 2 TD area starting likely in 2020 while building towards that eventuality this year. That would make him a mid QB2 this year and low QB1 going forward next year, with partially high upside due to his talent and age and partially low upside because of his situation under Gase for the time being.
I’m buying.
imo his numbers to reasonably expect would be more along the line of 3300-3500 yds, 22-25 td, 15-18 int. thats what i expect from him at least. not saying he cant put up more just i dont anticipate him doing so
Good response!FantasyDumDum wrote: ↑Sun Jul 07, 2019 7:01 amNext year Darnold will have the following changes, all positive:knotts4372 wrote: ↑Sun Jul 07, 2019 1:10 ami dont think its fair at all to EXPECT the gaudy numbers you think of. those number would make him a top 10 qb going by last years numbers while having one of the worst wr groups in the nfl. the numbers you quote are all way too high to expect from him imo and his ints will undoubtedly be more than just 10.FantasyDumDum wrote: ↑Sat Jul 06, 2019 4:38 pm Darnold, as a rookie in 13 games last year, having only just turned 21 years old, with a very lackluster supporting cast and scheme:
239/414, 57.7%, 2865y, 17 TD, 15 Int, 138y rushing, 1 TD.
Extrapolated to 16 games that is:
3500+y, 21 TD, 18.4 Int, 170y rushing, 1.2 TD.
I think it’s fair to expect Darnold to be in the 550 attempts, 4000y, 30TD, 10 Int, 200y rushing, 2 TD area starting likely in 2020 while building towards that eventuality this year. That would make him a mid QB2 this year and low QB1 going forward next year, with partially high upside due to his talent and age and partially low upside because of his situation under Gase for the time being.
I’m buying.
imo his numbers to reasonably expect would be more along the line of 3300-3500 yds, 22-25 td, 15-18 int. thats what i expect from him at least. not saying he cant put up more just i dont anticipate him doing so
No longer youngest QB in NFL history and no longer a rookie starting day 1 in the NFL, adding LeVeon Bell and Jamison Crowder, getting 16 games from each of Enunwa and Anderson instead of 19 games combined between them, his up and coming TE will be in his 2nd year rather than rookie year, his abysmal OL is better after adding Osemele and new OL coach.
These were his starters last year:
RB Crowell, Powell, McGuire
WR Anderson, Enunwa, Kearse
TE Herndon
These are his starters this year:
RB Bell, Montgomery, McGuire, Powell
WR Anderson, Crowder, Enunwa
TE Herndon
That’s a huge upgrade at RB and a solid one at WR, and their TE should be much improved in year 2.
Yet somehow you think he could regress from his 16 game pace in 2018 of 3526 yards, 21 TDs, 18 Ints to as bad as 3300 yards, 22 TDs, and 18 Ints?
Cmon now, that is clearly not right and not thought out at all.
It seems exceedingly unlikely that Darnold will regress to your numbers this year with everything going his way and improving for him and his situation in such dramatic fashion this year compared to last.
