Re: Why the 2021 Rookie Class Might Be The Most Valuable in Recent Dynasty History
Posted: Sat May 01, 2021 5:30 pm
A question I have been asking myself is - Apart from how possible is it that the projections I posted could be viable is exactly how do we compare draft classes? How valuable is a rookie class as a whole? Per Position?
I have decided I will try to answer that. It will take a lot of time. and will probably be a slow slog until after Rookie Draft season, but I would like to get a quantitative value on each draft class, starting with 2002. I'm going to start from 2002 and work forward, adding classes as they are fully retired.
2002 as a Draft class did not completely retire until last year, with Josh McCown.
I plan a 2 prong approach.
Part 1 - How many weeks was a player fantasy viable?
IE how many times should he have been in a lineup
Part 2 - How many seasons was a player fantasy viable?
IE how many times should he have been on a roster on a typical ppr league
In Part I I will be dividing value as such
Top 5
Top 12
Top 24
Top 36/48
QBs will be valued 5, 12 & 24
RBs will be valued 5, 12, 24 & 36
WRs will be valued 5, 12, 24 & 48
TEs will be valued 5 & 12.
Points will be rewarded, with an effort to try and make top 5 performances worth 2x as much as top 12 and 6-10x more valuable as top 36/48.
Why top 5? Well that is how FBG lists them *shrugs*
QBs go to 24 due to QB 1 & SF formats.
RBs go to 36 due to Start 1-3 dynasty formats & flex potential
WRs go to 48 due to Start 2-4 dynasty & flex potential
TEs go only to 12 due to the limited # of TE Premium leagues until recent years.
Anyways I have already completed the 2002 QB class - hopefully each week I'll be able to complete a complete draft class - as much as possible giving some classes still have players in the NFL. Notable UDFA will be included. As such Shaun Hill is recorded.
That will then give me/us a means on which to compare the more recent classes, including of course 2021. I'll post a thread at a later date (ie in 6-8 weeks) with my findings.
What I will share now is that the most valuable QB, at least based on my findings & scoring tabulation, of the 2002 Class was David Garrard, followed by Josh McCown - and not David Carr or Joey Harrington.
Ranking
David Garrard (led class in most Top 12 QB weeks)
Josh McCown (led class in most Top 5 QB weeks)
gap
Carr / Harrington tie
gap
Shaun Hill
Patrick Ramsey
gap
Quinn Gray
JT O'Sullivan
Chad Hutchinson
gap
everyone else had no value whatsover
Anyways in a few months I'll be able to share how QB classes compared, how RB classes compared, etc.
I have decided I will try to answer that. It will take a lot of time. and will probably be a slow slog until after Rookie Draft season, but I would like to get a quantitative value on each draft class, starting with 2002. I'm going to start from 2002 and work forward, adding classes as they are fully retired.
2002 as a Draft class did not completely retire until last year, with Josh McCown.
I plan a 2 prong approach.
Part 1 - How many weeks was a player fantasy viable?
IE how many times should he have been in a lineup
Part 2 - How many seasons was a player fantasy viable?
IE how many times should he have been on a roster on a typical ppr league
In Part I I will be dividing value as such
Top 5
Top 12
Top 24
Top 36/48
QBs will be valued 5, 12 & 24
RBs will be valued 5, 12, 24 & 36
WRs will be valued 5, 12, 24 & 48
TEs will be valued 5 & 12.
Points will be rewarded, with an effort to try and make top 5 performances worth 2x as much as top 12 and 6-10x more valuable as top 36/48.
Why top 5? Well that is how FBG lists them *shrugs*
QBs go to 24 due to QB 1 & SF formats.
RBs go to 36 due to Start 1-3 dynasty formats & flex potential
WRs go to 48 due to Start 2-4 dynasty & flex potential
TEs go only to 12 due to the limited # of TE Premium leagues until recent years.
Anyways I have already completed the 2002 QB class - hopefully each week I'll be able to complete a complete draft class - as much as possible giving some classes still have players in the NFL. Notable UDFA will be included. As such Shaun Hill is recorded.
That will then give me/us a means on which to compare the more recent classes, including of course 2021. I'll post a thread at a later date (ie in 6-8 weeks) with my findings.
What I will share now is that the most valuable QB, at least based on my findings & scoring tabulation, of the 2002 Class was David Garrard, followed by Josh McCown - and not David Carr or Joey Harrington.
Ranking
David Garrard (led class in most Top 12 QB weeks)
Josh McCown (led class in most Top 5 QB weeks)
gap
Carr / Harrington tie
gap
Shaun Hill
Patrick Ramsey
gap
Quinn Gray
JT O'Sullivan
Chad Hutchinson
gap
everyone else had no value whatsover
Anyways in a few months I'll be able to share how QB classes compared, how RB classes compared, etc.