Frequently Asked Questions
Question: When did you start to realize that the 2021 class was special (in your opinion)?
Answer: About a month ago I did my first 2021 rookie draft. It is a 16 team 5 round draft so 80 picks deep, and I was making a selection at 4.07 (#55 overall) and realized that this was a guy I could easily see myself targeting in the late 2nd or early 3rd of a 12 team 1 QB draft if things went well in the NFL Draft. I looked over the draft results, and I felt that even after 80 picks that there was still more meat left on the bone to digest.
Question: Couldn't it just be that all the other owners are bad at dynasty and so they just left you all the good players?
Answer: Doubtful. Most of these guys have been playing dynasty at least 5-10 years with plenty of experience with multiple formats. One of them is clarion contrarion (who was kind enough to give my draft a positive grade). And if you're going to be in a league with him, you're not likely to be a dummy, or he'll destroy you really quickly.
Question: I noticed you have not mentioned any names? Why not? Trying to be vague?
Answer: Nope not at all. The reason for that is basically three-fold.
(a) I figure if I start mentioning players, people will start focusing on those names as reasons why/why not the class is good.
(b) The goal was to look at the draft from a wide lens perspective and the fact that I believe that there is a lot of depth, not to point out specific examples
(c) I felt it was pretty obvious, at least from consensus purposes, that most owners knew who the stand out names were already.
Question: Well you talk a good game, but do you walk the walk? Are you actually invested in the 2021 class?
Answer: Absolutely, within reason.
Question: Come again? Can you go into details
Answer: Sure. Depending on the team & the format, I have several leagues where I have made heavy investments into owning 2021 rookie picks.
For example in one orphan I took over, I now have more rookie picks than actual players. 14 players vs. 16 picks. In one of the better known pre-NFL Draft rookie draft leagues, I have another large pile of rookie picks to us. There are leagues where I own 3-4 1st round picks. In another I moved back several times in the 2020 class and now have 6 picks in the top 15 in the 2021 class.
Having said that, no where I have suggested that an owner should go all in, on this or any rookie class. If you're a contending team, I am not going to tell you to trade CMC/Adams/Kittle for a random 1st. I am simply doing my best to remind you to keep an open mind going forward about the 2021 class, and that with a little work on your part, and a little luck, you're likely to come out with some nice assets.
I have several strong contenders, and while I am pretty excited about who could fall to me at the 1.09-1.12 range, I'm not going to be moving guys like them, or Cooper or Kamara, nor am I recommending to any owner who feels they are contenders to do that. You can be excited about a class, without having to be stupid.
Question: Surely though you can give us some hints or gut feelings, rather than just this overarching commentary?
Answer: Well while I remain dedicated to keeping this a focus on the class as a whole, I will say that I think both the QB1 & TE1 of this class are very safe bets, at least from a floor perspective. I do think though that at least 2 other QBs could rival in upside. Furthermore if one of the QBs falls into the 20s, or a team with a pick in the 2nd half of the draft moves up, rather than be worried, be estatic. That is Aaron Rodgers / Ben Roethlisberger / Pat Mahomes territory (KC went from 27 to 10 remember). You want your rookie QB tied to a winning organization with a lot of support already in place. So if 1 lands in Pittsburgh, TB, New England or New Orleans ....
Question: Anything else? Sure that is not all?
Answer: Ok ok I'll share this thought.
If you're not a contender and you own one of
Adam Thielen, Marvin Jones, Melvin Gordon, Sony Michel, Raheem Mostert or Jamison Crowder - I definitely would recommend selling them for 2021 draft picks.
Question: I am Thielen you're anti Veteran.
Answer: Actually you'd be incorrect. Remember I already said I am not advocating sell CMC/Kittle/Adams for a random 2021 1st. However not all veterans are equal. Those are all guys that I feel have 1 more year of fantasy relevance or less that you can possibly get something from atm - league market dependant of course.
Take Adam Thielen for example - It has been 2 years since he had a WR1 target share, is on the wrong side of 30, was a late breakout (data shows late breakout WRs/RBs are more prone to falling off cliff sooner than early/mid breakout players), and has stiff competition from Justin Jefferson from a QB who could be gone in a year. We are already seeing in dispersals & startups his value falling. I am not saying he wont be productive as a WR2/3 this year, but if you're in a rebuild, this is likely the last safe out to sell him. I get a Doug Baldwin / Jeremy Maclin vibe in my gut. I got a lot of push back on those guys also, but they both disappeared real quick and come 2022 it may be too late.
Marvin Jones? I love Marvin Jones. Highly underrated. But he just changed teams, he's also over 30 and he's good enough to siphon away targets from guys like Chark / Shenault in 2021 but not good enough to demand targets. IE he'll have more NFL value as a steady veteran force in the locker room and help their rookie QB due to his highly skilled route running, than he will as a fantasy asset.
I am simply saying those are all guys whose production wont be enough to make a non contender a contender, their age &/or market value is already in decline, and this is a deep class - so now is a good time to get out.
Question: Can you share some of your favorite 2021 players?
Answer: Not at this time, again trying to focus on the class as a whole rather than get bogged down by focusing on a couple of individuals. I will say that I do have 2 pre-nfl drafts coming up, both of which should be shared on the DLF Forums (they have been previously). So you'll see soon enough some of the people I like.