Dynasty League Football Forum

ArrylT wrote: ↑Tue Apr 13, 2021 8:13 pm Still slowly compiling the full list of how a top 12 TE would stack up each year vs. WR over the past 19 years.

However what I have been quickly able to do is give an average from 2014-2020. Or basically the past 7 years since the surge of WR rookie breakouts. Rounded to closest full number.

TE#1 overall will average out to WR10
#2 will average out to WR14
#3 averages to WR 20
#4 averages to WR 24
#5 averages to WR 26
#6 averages to WR 33
#7 averages to WR 38
#8 averages to WR 41
#9 averages to WR 44
#10 averages to WR 46
#11 averages to WR 48
#12 averages to WR 52
#18 averages to WR 62
#24 averages to WR 76

Just want to say this is great info right here. Thanks for sharing.

I'm not in position to take Pitts anywhere. I think I would only spend a top pick on him if I was in a full rebuild and also had other picks to fall back on.

MFundercover wrote: ↑Sun Apr 18, 2021 3:27 pm

ArrylT wrote: ↑Tue Apr 13, 2021 8:13 pm Still slowly compiling the full list of how a top 12 TE would stack up each year vs. WR over the past 19 years.

However what I have been quickly able to do is give an average from 2014-2020. Or basically the past 7 years since the surge of WR rookie breakouts. Rounded to closest full number.

TE#1 overall will average out to WR10
#2 will average out to WR14
#3 averages to WR 20
#4 averages to WR 24
#5 averages to WR 26
#6 averages to WR 33
#7 averages to WR 38
#8 averages to WR 41
#9 averages to WR 44
#10 averages to WR 46
#11 averages to WR 48
#12 averages to WR 52
#18 averages to WR 62
#24 averages to WR 76

Just want to say this is great info right here. Thanks for sharing.

I'm not in position to take Pitts anywhere. I think I would only spend a top pick on him if I was in a full rebuild and also had other picks to fall back on.

First off, Arry, appreciate the info! There's a (relatively) severe drop after the top 2, but really the top 5 would all have flex value. When one of my leagues added a flex a few years ago, I started thinking about TEs more than whatever low TE1 I could get. This data here suggests I need to focus more on my TEs in that league.

To a previous poster, I have Waller and Kittle on a contender where I can flex both and have a serious WR depth issues, so this has been very useful, To MF's point, can totally see only drafting Pitts high if you have other 1sts to fall back on.. Unfortunately, none of my teams match that criteria.

I have 1.01 and 1.05 in a 1QB league. At 5 I don't see how there's more risk taking Pitts than any of the other guys that are likely to be available at that spot. However if I didn't have 1.01 I'm not sure I'd be so comfortable taking a TE with my 1st.

MFundercover wrote: ↑Sun Apr 18, 2021 3:27 pm

ArrylT wrote: ↑Tue Apr 13, 2021 8:13 pm Still slowly compiling the full list of how a top 12 TE would stack up each year vs. WR over the past 19 years.

However what I have been quickly able to do is give an average from 2014-2020. Or basically the past 7 years since the surge of WR rookie breakouts. Rounded to closest full number.

TE#1 overall will average out to WR10
#2 will average out to WR14
#3 averages to WR 20
#4 averages to WR 24
#5 averages to WR 26
#6 averages to WR 33
#7 averages to WR 38
#8 averages to WR 41
#9 averages to WR 44
#10 averages to WR 46
#11 averages to WR 48
#12 averages to WR 52
#18 averages to WR 62
#24 averages to WR 76

Just want to say this is great info right here. Thanks for sharing.

I'm not in position to take Pitts anywhere. I think I would only spend a top pick on him if I was in a full rebuild and also had other picks to fall back on.

I might be the guy wasting my 1.03 on him. I love that you put that table together, but it doesn't show how invaluable TEs are... it really shows how extremely valuable a top 4 TE really is. I am not talking about comparing the flex value of a TE vs WR/RB...I am talking about value of TE4 vs TE10. You have an instant advantage you can double up your opponent in points at a position every week.
1.03 feels like a money spot right now. Chase/Harris/Pitts...money in the bank any way you slice it.

PBFalcon wrote: ↑Sat Apr 24, 2021 4:38 pm

MFundercover wrote: ↑Sun Apr 18, 2021 3:27 pm

ArrylT wrote: ↑Tue Apr 13, 2021 8:13 pm Still slowly compiling the full list of how a top 12 TE would stack up each year vs. WR over the past 19 years.

However what I have been quickly able to do is give an average from 2014-2020. Or basically the past 7 years since the surge of WR rookie breakouts. Rounded to closest full number.

TE#1 overall will average out to WR10
#2 will average out to WR14
#3 averages to WR 20
#4 averages to WR 24
#5 averages to WR 26
#6 averages to WR 33
#7 averages to WR 38
#8 averages to WR 41
#9 averages to WR 44
#10 averages to WR 46
#11 averages to WR 48
#12 averages to WR 52
#18 averages to WR 62
#24 averages to WR 76

Just want to say this is great info right here. Thanks for sharing.

I'm not in position to take Pitts anywhere. I think I would only spend a top pick on him if I was in a full rebuild and also had other picks to fall back on.

I might be the guy wasting my 1.03 on him. I love that you put that table together, but it doesn't show how invaluable TEs are... it really shows how extremely valuable a top 4 TE really is. I am not talking about comparing the flex value of a TE vs WR/RB...I am talking about value of TE4 vs TE10. You have an instant advantage you can double up your opponent in points at a position every week.
1.03 feels like a money spot right now. Chase/Harris/Pitts...money in the bank any way you slice it.

Yea taking the 1.1 player at 1.3 is really wasting your Pick

Eventually everyone will see this is a WR in a TE body and will be an UBER Stud.

Ice wrote: ↑Sat Apr 24, 2021 5:02 pm

PBFalcon wrote: ↑Sat Apr 24, 2021 4:38 pm

MFundercover wrote: ↑Sun Apr 18, 2021 3:27 pm

Just want to say this is great info right here. Thanks for sharing.

I'm not in position to take Pitts anywhere. I think I would only spend a top pick on him if I was in a full rebuild and also had other picks to fall back on.

I might be the guy wasting my 1.03 on him. I love that you put that table together, but it doesn't show how invaluable TEs are... it really shows how extremely valuable a top 4 TE really is. I am not talking about comparing the flex value of a TE vs WR/RB...I am talking about value of TE4 vs TE10. You have an instant advantage you can double up your opponent in points at a position every week.
1.03 feels like a money spot right now. Chase/Harris/Pitts...money in the bank any way you slice it.

Yea taking the 1.1 player at 1.3 is really wasting your Pick

Eventually everyone will see this is a WR in a TE body and will be an UBER Stud.

X2.

Almost the surest player in this draft IMO

PBFalcon wrote: ↑Sat Apr 24, 2021 4:38 pm I might be the guy wasting my 1.03 on him. I love that you put that table together, but it doesn't show how invaluable TEs are... it really shows how extremely valuable a top 4 TE really is. I am not talking about comparing the flex value of a TE vs WR/RB...I am talking about value of TE4 vs TE10. You have an instant advantage you can double up your opponent in points at a position every week.
1.03 feels like a money spot right now. Chase/Harris/Pitts...money in the bank any way you slice it.

Well just to be clear my goal is not to show how invaluable TEs are. The value of any specific TE will always depend on the owner, league format & scoring system. Rather I am just hoping to provide evidence that drafting (and owning) a 1st round pedigree TE (assuming Pitts goes Rd 1 - which seems quite safe to project), is a pretty safe endeavour.

However yes, another benefit of drafting someone like Kyle Pitts, apart from the potential for a long career, multiple TE1 seasons and repeated opportunities even if their 1st team moves off of them, is that a 1st round TE has a pretty solid success rate at reaching top 4 TE ceiling, either weekly, or season-long.

ArrylT wrote: ↑Sat Apr 24, 2021 8:35 pm

PBFalcon wrote: ↑Sat Apr 24, 2021 4:38 pm I might be the guy wasting my 1.03 on him. I love that you put that table together, but it doesn't show how invaluable TEs are... it really shows how extremely valuable a top 4 TE really is. I am not talking about comparing the flex value of a TE vs WR/RB...I am talking about value of TE4 vs TE10. You have an instant advantage you can double up your opponent in points at a position every week.
1.03 feels like a money spot right now. Chase/Harris/Pitts...money in the bank any way you slice it.

Well just to be clear my goal is not to show how invaluable TEs are. The value of any specific TE will always depend on the owner, league format & scoring system. Rather I am just hoping to provide evidence that drafting (and owning) a 1st round pedigree TE (assuming Pitts goes Rd 1 - which seems quite safe to project), is a pretty safe endeavour.

However yes, another benefit of drafting someone like Kyle Pitts, apart from the potential for a long career, multiple TE1 seasons and repeated opportunities even if their 1st team moves off of them, is that a 1st round TE has a pretty solid success rate at reaching top 4 TE ceiling, either weekly, or season-long.

I got you man. People like you make this forum awesome!

PBFalcon wrote: ↑Sun Apr 25, 2021 6:05 am

ArrylT wrote: ↑Sat Apr 24, 2021 8:35 pm

PBFalcon wrote: ↑Sat Apr 24, 2021 4:38 pm I might be the guy wasting my 1.03 on him. I love that you put that table together, but it doesn't show how invaluable TEs are... it really shows how extremely valuable a top 4 TE really is. I am not talking about comparing the flex value of a TE vs WR/RB...I am talking about value of TE4 vs TE10. You have an instant advantage you can double up your opponent in points at a position every week.
1.03 feels like a money spot right now. Chase/Harris/Pitts...money in the bank any way you slice it.

Well just to be clear my goal is not to show how invaluable TEs are. The value of any specific TE will always depend on the owner, league format & scoring system. Rather I am just hoping to provide evidence that drafting (and owning) a 1st round pedigree TE (assuming Pitts goes Rd 1 - which seems quite safe to project), is a pretty safe endeavour.

However yes, another benefit of drafting someone like Kyle Pitts, apart from the potential for a long career, multiple TE1 seasons and repeated opportunities even if their 1st team moves off of them, is that a 1st round TE has a pretty solid success rate at reaching top 4 TE ceiling, either weekly, or season-long.

I got you man. People like you make this forum awesome!

It takes all kinds but ty nonetheless. Thanks for reading, for the feedback, and good luck in your drafts.

Time for 1 last bit of data (for now).

30 1st Round TEs
30 2nd Round TEs
45 3rd Round TEs

Using ppr data from 2002
19 seasons x 12 ( top 12) = 228
19 seasons x 5 (top 5) = 95
19 seasons x 3 (top 3) = 57

# of 1st TEs with top 12 Season = 26/19 (since 2002)
86.6% (26 of 30*) 90.5% (19 of 21)

# of 2nd TEs with top 12 Season = 13
43.3% (13 of 30)

# of 3rd TEs with top 12 Season = 12
26.7% (12 of 45)

1st Round TE Seasons since 2002

# of top 12 seasons total = 67
29.3% (67 of 228)
# of top 5 seasons total = 31
32.6% (31 of 95)
# of top 3 seasons total= 19
33.3% (19 of 57)

2nd Round TE Seasons since 2002

# of top 12 seasons total = 35
15.4% (35 of 228)
# of top 5 seasons total = 10
10.5% (10 of 95)
# of top 3 seasons total = 7
12.3% (7 of 57)

3rd Round TE Seasons since 2002

# of top 12 seasons total = 52
22.8% (52 of 228)
# of top 5 seasons total = 27
28.4% (27 of 95)
# of top 3 seasons total = 15
26.3% (15 of 57)

Day I & II TE combined since 2002

# of top 12 seasons total = 154
67.5% (154 of 228)
# of top 5 seasons total = 68
71.6% (68 of 95)
# of top 3 seasons total = 41
71.9% (41 of 57)

* - as previously mentioned 1 TE had a season that qualified under non-ppr scoring which technically brings % to 90% but for this ppr specific review I am leaving it at 26/30.

Ice wrote: ↑Sat Apr 24, 2021 5:02 pm

PBFalcon wrote: ↑Sat Apr 24, 2021 4:38 pm

MFundercover wrote: ↑Sun Apr 18, 2021 3:27 pm

Just want to say this is great info right here. Thanks for sharing.

I'm not in position to take Pitts anywhere. I think I would only spend a top pick on him if I was in a full rebuild and also had other picks to fall back on.

I might be the guy wasting my 1.03 on him. I love that you put that table together, but it doesn't show how invaluable TEs are... it really shows how extremely valuable a top 4 TE really is. I am not talking about comparing the flex value of a TE vs WR/RB...I am talking about value of TE4 vs TE10. You have an instant advantage you can double up your opponent in points at a position every week.
1.03 feels like a money spot right now. Chase/Harris/Pitts...money in the bank any way you slice it.

Yea taking the 1.1 player at 1.3 is really wasting your Pick

Eventually everyone will see this is a WR in a TE body and will be an UBER Stud.

Exactly how I see it too. I play in a ton of leagues, both 1QB and in over 10 Superflex with TE premium leagues. I would take him as early as around 1.04 in 1 QB leagues and as early as 1.02 in my SF/TE premium leagues.

Looking at the top 12 for TE's seems like a waste of time. If if it's not top 4 it's easily replaced and hard to predict. For Pitts I would consider that also a bust.

Every year ...

I think those that take TE early can afford to, there will always be hope they produce year 1, but most are patient I think ..

Plank wrote: ↑Mon Apr 26, 2021 4:03 am

Every year ...

I think those that take TE early can afford to, there will always be hope they produce year 1, but most are patient I think ..

If Pitts starts slow like almost all rookie TEs, that may actually help time the emergence of a rebuilding team. That team can still be bad this year, get another allotment of high draft picks next season to take RBs.

I think Pitts owners would love immediate production to justify the pick, but a slow roll isn't terrible.

Pac_Eddy wrote: ↑Mon Apr 26, 2021 6:06 am

Plank wrote: ↑Mon Apr 26, 2021 4:03 am

Every year ...

I think those that take TE early can afford to, there will always be hope they produce year 1, but most are patient I think ..

If Pitts starts slow like almost all rookie TEs, that may actually help time the emergence of a rebuilding team. That team can still be bad this year, get another allotment of high draft picks next season to take RBs.

I think Pitts owners would love immediate production to justify the pick, but a slow roll isn't terrible.

I said that exact thing after a team drafted OJH mid first. Given the extended delay for rookie TEs, you can draft them to a bad team and be confident they won't suddenly make your team strong by themselves and push your pick up. He still bailed on him and I got him as a throw in 2 years later.